A Race: Reverse Engineered

[anonamouse]

well not yet.

I am sure that there is a higher intelligence at work in this horsey-run-very-fast game, and I am also sure that VDW could be that higher intelligence. But I'm too retarded to get it.

NB: Being retarded is a good thing, and I advocate the purchase of anything labelled "Fire Retardant"

After a liberal brain cell lubrication utilising the magic properties of...

... I'm drawn not to a conclusion, but another question...


most races have double, triple, quadruple+ the number of ENTRANTS than will actually run. maybe the answer we are looking for is not in how the final line up is decided, but where the "also-could-have-run" end up?...

next saturday, 15:35 NEWBURY: Betfair Hurdle : 70 entries?



3/0-21 Abbey Lane14 5x 8 10-0 W P Mullins 135 140 170
16/55- Alaivan645 7 10-5 E J O´Grady 140 — —
619-35 Baby Mix91 5 10-6 Tom George 141 148 161
FU-310 Balder Succes49 5 10-10 Alan King 145 142 161
031133 Blazing Tempo39 9 10-4 W P Mullins 139 104 166
6-8914 Bourne14 7 10-5 Donald McCain 140 152 162
122235 Cabimas15 6 9-1 Gary Moore 122 136 149
831222 Caid Du Berlais35 4 9-6 Paul Nicholls 137 144 159
115-2U Cash And Go49 6 10-10 Nicky Henderson 145 153 162
261311 Cause Of Causes27 5 11-3 Gordon Elliott 152 143 162
31129- Celestial Halo333 9 11-12 Paul Nicholls 161 148 162
2511-3 Claret Cloak98 6 10-1 Emma Lavelle 136 159 163
403-04 Clerk´s Choice15 7 10-12 Michael Banks 147 152 165
111U3- Cotton Mill302 6 10-10 John Ferguson 145 121 171
14-134 Court Minstrel35 6 9-10 Evan Williams 131 139 165
8-3151 Cousin Khee8F 6 8-11 Hughie Morrison 118 140 149
3-P333 Dan Breen49 8 10-3 David Pipe 138 145 164
21/171 Dark Lover57 8 10-13 Paul Nicholls 148 154 166
1U3-25 Dildar14 5 9-9 Paul Nicholls 130 148 157
11144 Discoteca44 5 10-4 Gordon Elliott 139 128 165
32F144 Double Ross49 7 10-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies 141 161 165
200-6U Edeymi22F 5 10-4 A J Martin 139 162 163
16-223 Edgardo Sol44 6 10-13 Paul Nicholls 148 139 165
190203 First In The Queue15 6 9-11 Nicky Henderson 132 131 162
114 Forgotten Voice28 8 10-3 Nicky Henderson 138 153 161
140/2- General Miller539 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson 139 — —
21-14P Get Me Out Of Here45 9 11-9 Jonjo O´Neill 158 157 164
F1131- Grumeti259F 5 11-4 Alan King 153 145 161
7333- Hammersly Lake509 5 10-7 Nicky Henderson 142 — —
155230 His Excellency14 5 10-8 David Pipe 143 158 159
311111 Home Run39 5 9-3 David Pipe 124 134 150
38-405 Il Fenomeno14 7 10-0 Noel Meade 135 144 169
40-442 Ingleby Spirit39 6 9-11 Richard Fahey 132 163 164
2150-F Inis Meain14 6 9-6 Denis Gerard Hogan 127 119 154
146-28 Into Wain49 6 9-9 Steve Gollings 130 126 155
218-2P It´s A Gimme49 6 10-5 Jonjo O´Neill 140 159 163
34116 Lord Of House14 5 9-12 Charlie Mann 133 109 159
217-10 Lyvius49 5 9-12 Nicky Henderson 133 127 165
P-5122 Ma Filleule41 5 9-13 Nicky Henderson 134 148 161
17373/ Manyriverstocross818 8 10-0 Alan King 135 — —
64-112 Midnight Game27 6 11-1 W P Mullins 150 141 160
22-121 My Tent Or Yours29 6 11-0 Nicky Henderson 149 129 163
11dF-2 Pearl Swan15 5 10-11 Paul Nicholls 146 — 160
9-5112 Petit Robin49 10 11-10 Nicky Henderson 159 143 164
51-626 Princeton Plains49 7 10-3 Edward P Harty 138 147 170
2190/6 Punjabi45 10 10-10 Nicky Henderson 145 55 150
910F-6 Quiscover Fontaine43 9 9-12 W P Mullins 133 145 159
F11-02 Ranjaan15 5 10-5 Paul Nicholls 140 108 139
13160B Rattan14 8 10-7 W P Mullins 142 155 170
73F6/4 Ronaldo Des Mottes35 8 10-9 David Pipe 144 110 162
2632-0 Sadler´s Risk14 5 10-13 Philip Hobbs 148 136 160
3-5345 Sailors Warn35 6 10-11 E J O´Grady 146 152 166
1207-0 Shadow Catcher14 5 10-5 Gordon Elliott 140 142 161
61/1-0 Snap Tie83 11 11-1 Philip Hobbs 150 157 168
067F8 Starluck15 8 10-8 David Arbuthnot 143 143 165
13-123 Staying Article40 8 10-13 E J O´Grady 148 127 169
1111-1 Swing Bowler39 6 9-13 David Pipe 134 155 166
31923 Ted Veale14 6 9-11 A J Martin 132 142 168
40/08- The Betchworth Kid106F 8 10-0 Michael Bell 135 — —
2P720B Thomas Edison14 6 10-0 A J Martin 135 109 162
05-256 Village Vic57 6 9-13 Philip Hobbs 134 143 164
10B/01 Whitby Jack28 6 9-5 Gary Moore 126 154 158
111/11 William´s Wishes35 8 10-10 Evan Williams DOUBTFUL 145 — —
63414 Wingtips44 5 10-6 A J Martin 141 140 159


let's see what the final line up is, and play spot the difference.


a few have 3 figure layoffs, Manyriverstocross 818? is that a record?

 

[dicko14]

Mouse
From the picture it looks like your using the never empty special reserve bottle.
Mind you I think your initial thoughts may have some mileage as not many people bother tracking a horses declarations.

 

[ArkRoyal]

That is an interesting post mouse, and something I have not thought about before.

 

[anonamouse]

could be something in it AR.

SportingLIfe has the race priced up already; the weights are also quite interesting, a spread from 8-11 Cousin Khee @50/1 to Celestial Halo 11-12 @33/1

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/09-02-2013/newbury/racecard/543784/betfair-hurdle-grade-3-handicap

 

[anonamouse]

70 entrants, an expected 24 to run... why is MY TENT OR YOURS the 4/1 fav?

From BHA handicappers blog:

TENT PROVES IMPOSSIBLE TO PEG BACK

A smart novice hurdler lit up the card at Huntingdon on Friday, writes Chris Nash.

The horse was My Tent Or Yours and the official result of this race will tell you that he beat Population by seven lengths giving him 10lb (a 17lb beating), God’s Own by nine and a quarter lengths giving him 4lb (a 14lb beating) and Tiny Tenor by 13 and a quarter lengths giving him 10lb (a 24lb beating).

Population was having his second run over hurdles having disappointed first time but was a very decent bumper horse. God’s Own had won his hurdles debut on his previous start running to a figure of 122 (form that was later boosted when the third won a handicap off 117). Tiny Tenor was also having his second run over hurdles and had run a figure on debut of 112. The form amongst the placed horses stacks up quite nicely - if God’s Own repeated his 122 performance then Tiny Tenor also repeated his 112 performance. This has Population running a figure of 119 and leaves the winner returning a bare figure of 136.

However that figure does not represent My Tent Or Yours’ true achievement. He tanked along throughout, to the point that he looked like he might even be doing too much, pulled his way to the front jumping three out, and was five lengths clear over two out and nearer 10 lengths ahead at the last before being eased down.

Assessing the true extent of his superiority over the rest is not easy as he never came off the bridle. I looked at his 10 length lead at the last and decided that the margin could well have been doubled if he had been ridden clear after the hurdle so I have assessed him as a twenty length winner – a performance equivalent to a figure of 149, a 9lb improvement on his pre-race mark. The immediate impact of this run was that it qualified him for the (early closing) Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 9th, and if he takes his chance he’ll be amongst the least exposed in the field. In addition his new rating of 149 places him right towards the top of the 2m novice hurdle division.

 

[anonamouse]

Grumeti 14/1

"Alan King admits next month's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury would not be an ideal starting point for Champion Hurdle contender Grumeti.

The five-year-old was among the top rank in the juvenile division last term, finishing third in the Triumph Hurdle before reversing form with Countrywide Flame when winning the Aintree equivalent. He subsquently ran twice on the level, winning at Ascot before being narrowly beaten at Goodwood in May.

However, Grumeti has been off the track since that outing and King has identified the Newbury feature on February 9 as a possible starting point if his hand is forced.

He told

http://www.alankingracing.co.uk

: "Grumeti has been off the track since he ran on the Flat at Goodwood last summer but, though we have had a few problems, we are getting there.

"However, it would not be ideal bringing him back for such a hugely competitive handicap as the Betfair, though at this time of the year you always have to keep your options open what with the weather, and if we are running out of time for a prep for Cheltenham we might well have to consider Newbury.

"It has been a difficult time with Grumeti, but he does seem in very good form."

 

[anonamouse]

Claret Cloak 16/1


"Emma Lavelle is hoping the weather takes a turn for the better soon as she is eager to run Claret Cloak in next month's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.

The six-year-old finished a creditable third behind subsequent Grade One-placed Raya Star in a Listed event at Ascot last November on what was only his sixth racecourse start.

However, the recent wet and cold weather has kept him off the track since and Lavelle is keeping her fingers crossed for a dry spell ahead of the February 9 feature.

She said: "He's fine and in good form, but he really needs some nice ground. The Betfair Hurdle has been the target and hopefully the weather will improve so he can run.

"I've given him a speculative entry in the Champion Hurdle, but he needs to run in a big handicap first to see if he is worth a chance there.

"We are just desperate to get him to the races so we can see where we go with him as he's a lovely horse.

"If we don't get a run, we might have to look at something like the County Hurdle at the Festival as he would be in there on an interesting mark."

 

[anonamouse]

Pearl Swan 8/1

Ranjaan 20/1

""The Betfair Hurdle (Newbury, February 9) is the aim for Pearl Swan and then on to Cheltenham, hopefully. It's just been a bit of a rush with him at home so this will hopefully help bring him along fitness-wise. There's money to aim for so they may as well run here than do a piece of work at home," said Nicholls.

"The thing with Ranjaan is he wants good ground, it was all against him in the Ladbroke. There's been no point running him in the heavy so we decided to keep his fitness levels up with a run here. He's also in the Betfair but he has other options as well."


"Back to Newbury next Saturday, Silviniaco Conti is on schedule to run in the Denman Chase and I will also be confirming three for the Betfair Hurdle; Pearl Swan, Dark Lover and Caid Du Berlais.

Pearl Swan has come on really well from his second in a jumpers' bumper - where his run delighted me, in truth - and he would be my number one hope for the race."-Nicholls



Cause of Causes: may or may not run-

"Cause Of Causes got up on the line to deny Midnight Game in a thrilling finish to the Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle at Navan.

Midnight Game was the 5-6 favourite to complete a hat-trick for Willie Mullins and Davy Russell, with the Gordon Elliott-trained Cause Of Causes 6-4 to follow up his lucrative victory in The Ladbroke at Ascot last month. Hisaabaat was the only other runner.

Midnight Game led for most of the two-mile journey and looked sure to win as he travelled powerfully into the straight with Russell motionless, but Davy Condon kept working on Cause Of Causes and was rewarded as his mount winged the last and galloped strongly to the line to get up by a short head.

Elliott said: "It was a bit of a cat and mouse race and a better pace would have suited. He's an honest horse. He'll go now for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 9. We'll look for something in Cheltenham after that. I might run him in the Supreme (Novices' Hurdle).

"He's got loads of experience. I'm not saying he's good enough to beat the real good ones, but he'll come home strong in a race like that. He could be a good Flat handicapper during the summer.""

 

[anonamouse]

now reduced by over half:


Horse A Wgt Trainer Jockey OR Naps Odds

Baby Mix (FR) 5 10-6 T R George 141 25/1

Cabimas 6 9-1 G L Moore 122 50/1

Caid Du Berlais (FR) 4 9-6 P F Nicholls 137

Cash And Go (IRE) 6 10-10 N J Henderson 145 10/1

Cause Of Causes (USA) 5 11-3 G Elliott 149

Claret Cloak (IRE) 6 10-1 Miss E C Lavelle 136 16/1

Cotton Mill 6 10-10 J P Ferguson 145 10/1

Court Minstrel (IRE) 6 9-10 Evan Williams 131 16/1

Cousin Khee 6 8-11 H Morrison 118 50/1

Dark Lover (GER) 8 10-13 P F Nicholls 148 14/1

Discoteca 5 10-4 G Elliott 130 33/1

Double Ross (IRE) 7 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 141 33/1

Edeymi (IRE) 5 10-4 A J Martin 134 25/1

First In The Queue (IRE) 6 9-11 N J Henderson 132 50/1

Grumeti 5 11-4 A King 153 14/1

Home Run (GER) 5 9-3 D Pipe 124 25/1

Ingleby Spirit 6 9-11 R A Fahey 132 33/1

Into Wain (USA) 6 9-9 S Gollings 130 25/1

Lyvius 5 9-12 N J Henderson 133 20/1

Manyriverstocross (IRE) 8 10-0 A King 142 33/1

Midnight Game 6 11-1 W P Mullins 149 20/1

My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 6 11-0 N J Henderson 140 4/1

Pearl Swan (FR) 5 10-11 P F Nicholls 146 8/1

Petit Robin (FR) 10 11-10 N J Henderson 159 20/1

Princeton Plains (IRE) 7 10-3 Edward P Harty 139 33/1

Punjabi 10 10-10 N J Henderson 145 20/1

Quiscover Fontaine (FR) 9 9-12 W P Mullins 123 33/1

Ronaldo Des Mottes (FR) 8 10-9 D Pipe 144

Swing Bowler 6 9-13 D Pipe 134 14/1

The Betchworth Kid 8 10-0 M L W Bell 135 40/1

Thomas Edison (IRE) 6 10-0 A J Martin 132 40/1

Village Vic (IRE) 6 9-13 P J Hobbs 134 25/1

Whitby Jack 6 9-5 G L Moore 119 25/1

 

[ArkRoyal]

 

[anonamouse]

Final declaration with jockeys named: 23 runners


Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey OR Odds

Petit Robin (FR) 10 11-12 N J Henderson Mr N De Boinville (7) 159 25/1

Cause Of Causes (USA) 5 11-5 G Elliott D J Condon 152

My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 6 11-2 N J Henderson A P McCoy 149 7/2

Dark Lover (GER) 8 11-1 P F Nicholls Ryan Mahon (3) 148 16/1

Pearl Swan (FR) 5 10-13 P F Nicholls R Walsh 146 8/1

Cash And Go (IRE) 6 10-12 N J Henderson B J Geraghty 145 10/1

Punjabi 10 10-12 N J Henderson Jeremiah McGrath (5) 145 20/1

Cotton Mill 6 10-12 J P Ferguson Jack Quinlan (3) 145 9/1

Ronaldo Des Mottes (FR) 8 10-11 D Pipe Tom Bellamy (7) 144

Baby Mix (FR) 5 10-8 T R George N Fehily 141 25/1

Princeton Plains (IRE) 7 10-5 E P Harty 138 33/1

Claret Cloak (IRE) 6 10-3 Miss E C Lavelle D Elsworth 136 14/1

The Betchworth Kid 8 10-2 M L W Bell J A McCarthy 135 40/1

Manyriverstocross (IRE) 8 10-2 A King W Hutchinson 135 40/1

Swing Bowler 6 10-1 D Pipe T J Murphy 134 12/1

Village Vic (IRE) 6 10-1 P J Hobbs R Johnson 134 16/1

Lyvius 5 10-0 N J Henderson A Tinkler 133 25/1

Ingleby Spirit 6 10-0 v R A Fahey B Hughes 132 40/1

First In The Queue (IRE) 6 10-0 N J Henderson R J Killoran 132 50/1

Court Minstrel (IRE) 6 10-0 Evan Williams Adam Wedge (3) 131 12/1

Into Wain (USA) 6 10-0 S Gollings Brendan Powell (3) 130 33/1

Caid Du Berlais (FR) 4 10-0 P F Nicholls Harry Derham (5) 137

Home Run (GER) 5 10-0 p D Pipe 124 33/1


will extrapolate the non runners and keep an eye on where they go instead, and why they didn't contest this £86,849 first prize

 

[jalfrezi]

 

[anonamouse]

the point of this exercise is my simple logic that if owners/ trainers initially fancied their horse as a winner of that kind of prize, surely they will fly home for a fraction of that?

They'll all be (mostly) at their peak of fitness, so the next couple of weeks should be interesting from a punting point of view. except the ones that were withdrawn because they're unfit or injured :naughty:

 

[anonamouse]

Fell way behind with this grrrr;

The main point of note for me today is Nicky Henderson having 25% of the runners. Expect VICTORY!

will catch up the research over the weekend. somehow. :shifty:

 

[anonamouse]

sticking this in before it gets deleted from sporting life:


Formwatch

Petit Robin (FR) 25-1 (11-5) Chased leaders, 3rd and travelling well before 2 out, led 2 out, 2 lengths ahead last, headed and not pace of winner flat, 2nd of 21, 4l behind Cause Of Causes (10-13) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) hvy in Dec.

Cause Of Causes (USA) 6-4 (11-10) Chased leader in 2nd, close up entering straight, challenged and mistake 3 out, soon pushed along in 2nd, ridden to challenge again last, disputed run-in and led at line, won at Navan 2m hdl hvy in Jan beating Midnight Game (11-9) by shd, 3 ran.

My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 4-7fav (11-12) Held up, took keen hold, headway 5th, led 3 out, clear when went left 2 out and last, very easily, won at Huntingdon 2m NH nov hdl (4-7yo) (4) sft in Jan beating Population (11-2) by 7l, 13 ran.

Dark Lover (GER) 9-2fav (11-8) Mid-division, smooth headway before 2 out, went 3rd between last 2, led going well approaching last where not fluent, driven clear flat, comfortably, won at Cheltenham 2m 1f hcp hdl 0-135 (3) hvy in Dec beating Open Day (10-3) by 16l, 17 ran.

Pearl Swan (FR) 5-4fav (11-4) Tracked leaders, led on bit over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, not pace of winner, 2nd of 14, 2 1/2l behind Fair Trade (11-4) at Kempton 2m n h flat (4) std in Jan.

Cash And Go (IRE) 11-2fav (11-2) Towards rear when blundered and unseated rider 4th, in a race won by Cause Of Causes (10-13) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) hvy in Dec, 21 ran.

Punjabi 14-1 (11-7) Led, headed after 3 out, weakened next, 6th of 7, 32l behind Darlan (11-7) at Kempton 2m hdl G1 (1) hvy in Dec.

Cotton Mill 6-1 (11-4) Tracked leaders, every chance approaching 3 out, soon ridden, weakened flat, 3rd of 19, 13l behind Lovcen (11-4) at Aintree 3m nov hdl Grade 1 (1) gd in Apr.

Ronaldo Des Mottes (FR) 20-1 (11-5) Held up towards rear, headway on outside 3 out, kept on from after 2 out, disputing 3rd but no chance with winner last, no extra in 4th closing stages, 4th of 12, 12l behind Lord Of House (9-9) at Sandown 2m hcp hdl 0-145 (2) hvy in Jan.

Baby Mix (FR) 6-1 (10-4) Prominent, not fluent 3 out, soon ridden, weakened before next, 5th of 7, 24l behind Zarkandar (11-10) at Wincanton 2m Ltd hcp hdl (1) gs in Nov.

Princeton Plains (IRE) 25-1 (10-10) Towards rear, stayed on from 2 out, went 6th flat, never on terms, 6th of 21, 18l behind Cause Of Causes (10-13) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) hvy in Dec.

Claret Cloak (IRE) 8-1 (10-10) Chased leader, led 4 out, driven and strongly pressed last, narrowly headed flat, stayed on same pace in 3rd after, 3rd of 15, 2l behind Raya Star (11-12) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) gs in Nov.

The Betchworth Kid 16-1 (11-5) Held up behind, mistake 8th, headway under pressure after next, kept on same pace, 8th and no impression when mistake 2 out, 8th of 19, 30l behind Poungach (11-4) at Sandown 2m 6f hcp hdl (2) gs in Dec '11.

Manyriverstocross (IRE) 11-2fav (10-13) Raced wide, took keen hold, held up towards rear, headway approaching 4th, chased leaders gong well 3 out, stayed on to 3rd before last, one pace and no threat to leading duo, 3rd of 17, 5l behind Menorah (11-12) at Cheltenham 2m hcp hdl Grade 3 (1) gs in Nov '10.

Swing Bowler 3-1fav (11-4) Mid-division on inside, driven after 4 out, led 2 out, ridden and stayed on well flat, won at Musselburgh 2m hcp hdl (2) sft in Jan beating Ingleby Spirit (11-9) by 4 1/2l, 14 ran.

Village Vic (IRE) 11-4fav (10-12) Held up in last pair, headway and in touch 2 out, driven between last 2, one pace when switched inside before last, weakened flat, 6th of 8, 8l behind Melodic Rendezvous (10-12) at Cheltenham 2m 1f NH nov hdl 4-6yo (3) hvy in Dec.

Lyvius 14-1 (10-1) Mid-division, headway to chase leaders 5th, ridden and weakened quickly before 2 out, tailed off, 18th of 21, well behind Cause Of Causes (10-13) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) hvy in Dec.

Ingleby Spirit 9-2 (11-7) Chased leaders, ridden after 6th, no impression before 2 out, stayed on final 100 yards, 4th of 10, 7l behind Brick Red (11-12) at Musselburgh 2m hcp hdl 0-145 (2) gs.

First In The Queue (IRE) 8-1 (11-4) Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on well inside final furlong, 3rd of 16, 3 1/2l behind Dr Livingstone (11-4) at Kempton 2m n h flat (3) std in Jan.

Into Wain (USA) 16-1 (10-1) In touch, headway to 5th approaching 2 out, soon ridden, weakened before last, 8th of 21, 28l behind Cause Of Causes (10-13) at Ascot 2m Listed hcp hdl (1) hvy in Dec.

Caid Du Berlais (FR) 9-4fav (11-0) Held up, outpaced approaching 3 out, headway next, not fluent last, left 2nd soon after, stayed on well towards finish, 2nd of 8, 1 1/4l behind Ruacana (11-0) at Chepstow 2m 4yo hdl Grade 1 (1) hvy in Jan

Home Run & Court Minstrel non runners, leaves 21 runners: paid to 5 places BET365 looks good.

let's see after the event if any clues were in there

 

[anonamouse]

70 entrants, an expected 24 to run... why is MY TENT OR YOURS the 4/1 fav?

From BHA handicappers blog:

I have assessed him as a twenty length winner

To save ourselves a SHITLOAD of hard work, it seems that all the info we need came straight from the horses mouth, or to be more precise, from the blog of the handicapper.

There are not many 20 length winners on the improve: they're the ones to follow: so I will continue to update this with info about the 70 and any others we need on our shortlist.

The antepost shortened to 7/2 in the week, but fortuitously drifted back to 4/1, 9/2 and finally 5/1. you don't see that very often either. MTOY is now 9/4 fav from 8/1 for THE SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE. The card shows 94 ENTRIES

 

[anonamouse]

Reading the last entry in the blog, 5th Jan gives an interesting clue about CAPTAIN CONAN & THIRD INTENTION

Captain Conan won The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase(Grade 1)

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/02-02-2013/sandown-park/result/546357/betfred-mobile-lotto-challengers-novices-39-chase-registered-as-the-scilly-isles-novices-39-chase-grade-1

by A NECK @ 1/2 fav....

next entry for Captain Conan is either THE ARKLE :12th March @ 10/1, or THE JEWSON NOVICES' CHASE : 14th March @ 9/2

next entry for Third Intention 23rd Feb Kempton class 3, THE RSA : 12th March @ 33/1, or THE JEWSON NOVICES' CHASE : 14th March @ 25/1

"Captain Conan who was top rated on 152 going into the race edged home by a neck. When rating pattern races we often start with the winner if he was top rated going into the race. Three and a quarter lengths back in third was Houblon Des Obeaux who went into the race on 148. If I had both the first and the third running their race then my only problem was the second horse, Third Intention, who appeared to have improved from 142 to 151.

Third Intention has been a frustrating horse for connections as he has consistently run well behind Captain Conan but without looking like beating him. That is until Saturday. On our computer system two runs ago John de Moraville had put a small “t” next to his name when he had been third over 2m meaning he thought that Third Intention would be suited by further. Last time I put a capital “T” next to him after he ran over 3m meaning I felt that he had not stayed 3m. Perhaps we were both right and his best trip is 2m4f. It seemed justified in putting him up to 151.

I now looked at race averages for the previous four years. The winning performance was 154 and the second was 149.25. My 152 and 151 were certainly in those ball parks. I next checked the race times as there were three races on Saturday over the Scilly Isles trip. Both Captain Conan’s race and that of Dashing George (won off 123 by nine lengths) were truly run races and Captain Conan’s time was just under three seconds faster which equates to 12lb on heavy ground. As he also carried 9lb more than Dr Newland’s handicap winner after adding back in Joshua Moore’s claim, the Captain comes out a 21lb better horse. I put Dashing George on 131.
"


Hmmmm... big difference in odds for a beating by a neck

 

[dicko14]

Hope it's o.k. To drop this little snippet from the handicapper here
As I alluded to in last week’s blog, Pont Alexandre’s stylish win at Leopardstown a week last Sunday has indeed propelled him to the top of the tree among the staying novices, writes Martin Greenwood.

German bred and successful over hurdles on his only start in France, Pont Alexandre has made a stunning start with his new stable, winning a Grade 1 at Navan in some style on his debut for the yard, being left clear at the last, and then following up in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown by eleven lengths and more from some decent opposition. Making all on the latter track, Pont Alexandre had plenty in the tank crossing the line and looks a real prospect.

Median standards suggest I should be looking around 150 for the winner, but given the style of victory I have rated him 154 which puts him marginally in front of At Fishers Cross and The New One. With running plans as usual a little cloudy at the time of writing regarding Cheltenham Festival plans it’s hard to know which horse will be top rated in which race, but it’s fairly safe to say that all three horses mentioned look to hold outstanding chances.

 

[anonamouse]

As the old saying goes, Keep your friends close, your enemies closer...

We aim to beat the handicapper, so it makes sense to read all the info they're giving away

 

[anonamouse]

Not got a lot of today, but will stick in next Saturdays "big race", the Betfred Grand National Trial, and see if there are the same clues from the Handicapper as there were last week Class 3 so slightly bigger edge in our favour, purely on spread of ability, 117-152 offers us some chance if we can foresee some improvement. I haven't included form or days since last race. minimum weight stated as 10-0, prize fund £75,000.



Horse A Wgt Trainer OR Odds

Across The Bay (IRE) 9 [11-4] D McCain Jnr 150 33/1

Alfie Spinner (IRE) 8 [10-2] Nick Williams 134 25/1

Arbor Supreme (IRE) 11 [9-2] Jonjo O'Neill 120 25/1

Auroras Encore (IRE) 11 [10-5] Mrs S J Smith 137 33/1

BallaBriggs (IRE) 12 [11-6] D McCain Jnr 152

Big Fella Thanks 11 [11-8] T R George 151 14/1

Caduceus (IRE) 9 [9-12] P L Hughes 126 33/1

Cannington Brook (IRE) 9 [11-2] C L Tizzard 148 10/1

Cappa Bleu (IRE) 11 [11-0] Evan Williams 146 25/1

Chac Du Cadran (FR) 7 [9-8] C C Bealby 126 20/1

Chicago Grey (IRE) 10 [10-9] G Elliott 144 25/1

Fruity O'Rooney 10 [10-7] G L Moore 139

Giles Cross (IRE) 11 [10-12] V R A Dartnall 144 16/1

Godsmejudge (IRE) 7 [10-2] A King 134 14/1

Hey Big Spender (IRE) 10 [11-2] C L Tizzard 151 33/1

Jaunty Journey 10 [8-13] N A Twiston-Davies 117 50/1

Join Together (IRE) 8 [11-4] P F Nicholls 150 8/1

Junior 10 [11-12] D Pipe 158 14/1

Katenko (FR) 7 [11-12] Miss V Williams 147 7/1

Lackamon 8 [10-2] Mrs S J Smith 134 40/1

Lively Baron (IRE) 8 [9-11] D McCain Jnr 129 25/1

Mac Aeda 9 [9-9] J M Jefferson 127 25/1

Major Malarkey (IRE) 10 [10-1] N A Twiston-Davies 133 33/1

Monbeg Dude (IRE) 8 [10-6] M J Scudamore 138 7/1

Neptune Equester 10 [10-1] B Ellison 133 25/1

Pentiffic (NZ) 10 [9-13] Miss V Williams 131 33/1

Pettifour (IRE) 11 [8-13] N A Twiston-Davies 117 50/1

Rigadin de Beauchene (FR) 8 [9-13] Miss V Williams 131

Rose Of The Moon (IRE) 8 [10-4] D O'meara 136 33/1

Silver By Nature 11 [11-6] Miss Lucinda V Russell 152 25/1

Soll 8 [10-0] Jo Hughes 132 33/1

Summery Justice (IRE) 9 [10-3] Miss V Williams 135 25/1

Tarquinius (FR) 10 [10-4] G Elliott 123 20/1

Teaforthree (IRE) 9 [11-5] Miss R Curtis 151 6/1

Trigger The Light 12 [9-10] A King 128 33/1

Triggerman 11 [9-10] P J Hobbs 128 20/1

Viking Blond (FR) 8 [10-0] N A Twiston-Davies 132 20/1

Well Refreshed 9 [9-11] G L Moore 129 14/1

Wyck Hill (IRE) 9 [10-10] D G Bridgwater 140 8/1