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A Tale of Two Cards

Discussion in 'Chat' started by GLYCERINE, Apr 21, 2017.

  1. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    Wish I was going to Ayr today. I am not. Instead going with a gaggle of my wife's girlfriends to Southwell. As the only one who knows one end of a horse from another, her friends go once in a blue moon, I will be expected to say something about the horses. I have backed horses at Ayr today. Its a wonderful card with some good bets and some interesting questions. Questions like: will Jonjo's horse take a 20lb rise in its stride? Is Azzuri soft? What effect will first time aids have on Great Fighter, and why have they dropped Nomoreblackjack in trip?
    In contrast, most of Southwell's interest centres on which moderate horse will plod on more resolutely than another moderate horse. The equivalent like so much of Southwell's racing, of equine roulette. It won't be a case either, in lots of races of one wanting it more than the other. Most won't want it at all. More probably which horse suddenly takes it into its head to get back to a warm stable the quickest way. Yes it's poor fare, but typical of low grade ARC racing.
    I will say its very competitive, there might be some good finishes and murmur appreciatively when they choose on the basis of name (maybe as good a way as another) or select as their paddock pick some woolly goat. It will be fun anyway. Try as I might its hard to get enthusiastic about any of them but I did pick out the following: Champion Chase, Back To Balloo, Galway Jack, Thoonavolla, and Elkstone. A horse that has ability but might want further, an 11 yr old hurdler in decline, a sulky monkey last time, a fully exposed horse and a horse that should not win but has a little form. Of course Riddlestown might light up the place with another win, but they are a moderate bunch. Add to those a two horse race likely to go to the favourite and a bumper which holds no interest and you can see why I wish I was at Ayr.
    I will read through any tipping posts to see anyone else's views on Southwell, but in my view backing horses is about finding the right races and there are several at Ayr and none at Southwell. Moderate horses who have no heart are poor fare, one paced plodders who try are admirable, but not really a betting medium. Hope anyone reading has a productive day and if anyone is at Ayr. You are very lucky.
     
  2. mick

    mick Dam

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    Nice post offering some pre race thoughts.Hope you enjoy your day.I learned the hard way that girl friends or wife's are best left behind when going racing.:eek:
     
    GLYCERINE likes this.
  3. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    Yes agree with you totally. Excellent point. She has just spent the last two hours on the phone and is now driving around to pick up friends, despite me telling her again and again I want to get there early today so I can relax and have a place to come back to after the paddock inspection and racing....they are good at keeping a seat and watching on TV so there is always somewhere to come back to. Assuming they ever get ready. You are right though. I never tell her anything whether I win or lose. If she asks me how I did I just say I forgot to put a bet on and just watched out of interest. Amazing how a betting bank can be decimated by a partner. The reason I try and push her to go is because I go racing so much and she gets fed up never seeing me. When she gets there all she wants to do is eat somewhere that costs an arm and a leg and post on FB. Most times she hasn't even seen a race. Different values, she likes to dress up and eat on a reasonable day. I like to dress down and watch jump racing on a filthy day when all the revelers are absent and only the diehards are around. One new friend coming today who told me she had been before and enjoyed it so there is hope at least.
     
    mick likes this.
  4. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Hi mate, when I started actually making profits from this game I used to use them to take my wife for days out at the races, that way we both got to share my hobby.
    I remember once we went to Salisbury because I wanted to watch one of my selections run , mine won by a head at really short odds, the very next race Carol had a 16/1 winner !
    She also enters the comp on here and has won it a couple of times; you can imagine the stick I get when I have to give her the monthly prize money !
     
    OnTheNod, mick and markfinn like this.
  5. davejb

    davejb Foal

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    Why wouldn't she have enjoyed it last time - she too probably
    ;)

    All that aside, I hope you enjoyed yourself despite the less than stellar racing fare...
     
  6. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    I was surprised they ran Churchill today. Experience has taught me that firm ground is best avoided. Both as an owner and as a punter. Surprised too, that having had a few bets over this prolonged dry spell I have done so well. Some horses I just fancied at the prices and they have won. Wish I knew why. I have always made profits backing horses, but the amounts go up and down. Looking through my records, September to January have always been the best times. But here I am having a purple patch in the middle of a heat wave. Wish I knew why. Mind you, also had four fun bets at R A today and only one winner and that was pretty obvious. But stuck in Rouen for the day and free WiFi everywhere so passed the time. Profits came from Beverly and Stratford two of my favourite courses. Seen quite a bit of French provincial racing last few weeks and not great to see how many horses won't let themselves down on the prevailing ground. One thing I have learnt is to be wary of horses who won last time up on fast ground. In the UK often a lay rather than a bet. Not that I lay. Easier to find winners. Oh well antibiotics ended today so wine and cognac again tomorrow . been weird not talking for a while. Though I managed an interview with a local paper on gambling on French racing. Not that I know anything, except fitness and paddock inspection count for more in the provinces. Also had my picture printed too. Useful for keeping children away from the fire if placed on the mantlepiece. Good luck for RA tomorrow.
     
  7. rpjd99

    rpjd99 Colt

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    Link?

    Ray
     
  8. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    people think I am a big enough prat already without adding to it. But I have been frequenting the presse to get a copy.

    Amazing to think its just over a year ago that I watched Western Jo run a race full of promise at MR, runs again tomorrow, many pounds lighter. The horse doesnt hold its form, hasn't lived up to its early promise and really should be sporting the aids, but MR is a tricky track and it likes it there and if the price was big enough... who knows. Really could do with being there and seeing what it looks like but would be a big price for a place and its not a great race. I also thought Moabit would improve markedly for its last outing, as well as being bit disappointed with Work in Progress last time and am not sure a sharp track and fast ground over a short trip is what he wants. Jonjo likes the track and is a regular and the top of the card might improve, but you would expect that at some stage Moabit should prove a fair bit better than these and if I was there he would be the one I would be looking at. I think he should be fav. currently they are 14s and 5/2, 14s isnt generous, 5/2 might be.
     
  9. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    Stuck in today so a fun bet Goliath including two winners at 25/1 and 11/1, sadly thats all the Goliath included and wasn't any fun anyway as two great winners were preceded by 6 losers. My serious bet goes tonight so courtesy of mobdro will be watching. Which is worse, a multiple bet that goes down early or disappoints late? I rarely bet multiples, only when bored rigid and usually never bored but living out of a suitcase for a long time is wearing, seemed like a good idea back in freezing January to have a long stay in France. Take in the provinces racing etc etc. Its a big country and aside from trotting races are spread apart and not that common. The country is trot crazy. The aircon is struggling in this heat and long liquid lunches wearing me out. Good job my sensible bets are usually on early. More get punted than drift, like Lamloom, though to be fair Yaarmen went for a real walk and Moabit and Western Jo, backed to place first 3, finished fourth were available all day. Yaarmen had a whopping deduction too, and again, would not have won if the favourite had not got worked up and withdrawn given the performance of the second string. Firestick and Mobdro and PIA highly recommended.
     
  10. rpjd99

    rpjd99 Colt

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    Sixty per cent of all horse races.

    Ray
     

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