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I wanted to be deleted
Guest
A question for you guys,
as you might know, i am experimenting with Genetic programming/Alg's to find better ways to look at data ( as vdw himself advised )
basically, you can think of a genetic algorithm as population of "creatures", each creature is essentially a phenotype, which has been produced
by a specific Genotype, consisting of genomes, which in turn consist of individual genes.
Now i realise that to some, the above will illicit the reaction of "WTF does all that mean"... bare with me ;-)
to simplify, think of each Genotype as a set of genomes that produce a Phenotype which to all intents & purposes
(in simple terms) you can think of as rules of a system.
eg :- one genotype may produce a "creature" that simply says "if the horse is FAV-today...AND the horses PM rating LTO is greater than the PM Rating 2nd-LTO.....then BET"
i must stress, my programming all of this, is not an attempt to "systemize" vdw's methods, but rather to dissect the various aspects of "data" and find which is
better than which.
As a result of all of this, each creature is evaluated against a set of test race results to see how well (or badly) it performs.
Each Creatures is then given what is called a fitness score based on how well it performed.
Here is the problem, this fitness evaluation of each creature, has to take into account the following...
win %
Profit(or loss)
Profit as a % of total bets placed
Number of bets placed
using the above 4 factors, i ask you guys, what would YOUR ideal results actually be?
an example, we could go all silly, and simply say..... oh.....100% winners, with 3 million % profit.....jobs a good 'en !
but lets be realistic,
obviously, it would be no good having 1 winner from 1 bet placed @ 5/1 therefore 500% profit, hence my including Number of bets in the above 4 factors.
So... in simple terms, what would your ideal set of results be, in terms of win %, profit, profit %, number of bets (per week/ per month?)
Cheers.
as you might know, i am experimenting with Genetic programming/Alg's to find better ways to look at data ( as vdw himself advised )
basically, you can think of a genetic algorithm as population of "creatures", each creature is essentially a phenotype, which has been produced
by a specific Genotype, consisting of genomes, which in turn consist of individual genes.
Now i realise that to some, the above will illicit the reaction of "WTF does all that mean"... bare with me ;-)
to simplify, think of each Genotype as a set of genomes that produce a Phenotype which to all intents & purposes
(in simple terms) you can think of as rules of a system.
eg :- one genotype may produce a "creature" that simply says "if the horse is FAV-today...AND the horses PM rating LTO is greater than the PM Rating 2nd-LTO.....then BET"
i must stress, my programming all of this, is not an attempt to "systemize" vdw's methods, but rather to dissect the various aspects of "data" and find which is
better than which.
As a result of all of this, each creature is evaluated against a set of test race results to see how well (or badly) it performs.
Each Creatures is then given what is called a fitness score based on how well it performed.
Here is the problem, this fitness evaluation of each creature, has to take into account the following...
win %
Profit(or loss)
Profit as a % of total bets placed
Number of bets placed
using the above 4 factors, i ask you guys, what would YOUR ideal results actually be?
an example, we could go all silly, and simply say..... oh.....100% winners, with 3 million % profit.....jobs a good 'en !
but lets be realistic,
obviously, it would be no good having 1 winner from 1 bet placed @ 5/1 therefore 500% profit, hence my including Number of bets in the above 4 factors.
So... in simple terms, what would your ideal set of results be, in terms of win %, profit, profit %, number of bets (per week/ per month?)
Cheers.