betting account closed?
- Thread starter curiousmind
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
C
curiousmind
This may explain what you will be up against. Peter May is a well known Author and sometimes writes for ATR
http://www.pjmracing.co.uk/wallofshame.html
This may explain what you will be up against. Peter May is a well known Author and sometimes writes for ATR
http://www.pjmracing.co.uk/wallofshame.html
Well, I've looked up a few things but it was never clear to me. Some poeple complain that their account was closed even though they were losing money but would never admit to any wrongdoing. Others say their account was closed because they were making money of the the bookies..but would never be specific as to how much, obviously. But it'd be helpful to at least get a sense for the threshold we're talking about.
If it's thousands of pounds...that's one thing, if it's couple of hundreds of pounds a month, that's another one. I am talking about the latter - i.e. thnking that my operation would be pretty small with the profit max in hundreds of pounds a month...certainly no more than 500-600pounds.
Also, would not betfair in this respect be an alternative? (I've never used it but have heard that they don't care about winners or losers but the turn-around. There's someone who claimed that Pinnacle never closes peoples' accounts even if winning...i.e. lot's of information out there.
For me, for the start, it's hard to even gauge what kind of money are we talking here about?
Chesham
Sire
I would email Peter May as he has a PhD and will be able to advise. You on your strategy. See link,in my last post. He welcomes emails,on the subject of Bookmakers. He will also be able to,advise you on your Tennis Betting Hypothesis. Good luck with your quest
mick
Sire
Not correct as they tax winners.Go on there site and read there T&C Re The Premium Charge.
Chesham, I've read it. It's about betting on horses - which I have completely no knowledge about. But the stories didn't add up. why would they ban him or check on him so quickly? That must have to do something which who the person is or what they knew about him. I can't imagine that they would be checking
Thank you Chesham, that's actually a really good advice. I might try emailing him, why not. I'd be really interested in knowing about this from someone who's got experience with bookies.
ARAZI91
Mare
The article i put up was written by Joseph Buchadal who does take a past data approach to sports betting and has written a few books and has articles on the Pinnacle site. Yes it is based on math theory , but there was a download link to a spreadsheet with the 3rd page where you could have entered your real life data and seen where you were at regarding staking etc , as the formulas are all in place. I would say in sports , like racing there is no guarantee of past historical data and trends holding up in the future (remember Leicester City) and basing results on that historical data would be still theoretical in context and i think most would agree on here. We all use past data here , whether it is one last race , last 10 games etc - the information of the past is all we have. Most try to obtain an edge from that information by interpreting differently or by completely new methods of categorising and analysing it , rather than trying to force an edge through some sort of progressive staking plan.Arazi91,
"I noticed you skipped over the first consideration - The Unlimited Bankroll"
I did not. I've thought about this a lot and have done my calculations - i.e. how far I would be able to go before this issues sets into motion. For me, that's not really a problem. Not because it's unlimited, but because in my model I am assuming that I would stop betting if my model was exceeded (say, I'd plan to place bets until the 20th round of reiteration at max, and if the event were still not to happen, I would simply have to take the loss). So the real question would be: how often does this happen or would happen in a real match play? If it happens twice a betting year, will the two losses then wipe our my entire winning for that year? Or possibly my etire bankroll? Or will they not?
And this is related to the article - thank you for posting it, I'll have to think more about this!
There is, however, one issue that I've noticed right away with it: it's based on math. theory only. To me, the question of long sequences is not just a theoretical issue but an issue of real-life data (aka my point above). To put it differently, a streak can be long and might not be uncommon....but what kind of streak are we talking about here? 11 matches, 20 mathces, 30 matches? And in what sport and under what odds? You need to verify this with real life data in the past - there's no way around this. Mathematicians hate history; historians hate math. But I figure that you need both to get a crack at this issue. It can't be just based on theory alone. Wouldn't you agree?
Then, in the article there's an initial assumption of a starting bet of £1...that is still about 5 times higher than my initial ...i.e. a 10th-11th event without return would not be a problem at all - in fact, it's rather expected as it would bring more profit. I've set up my model for 20 rows. I can easily cover that without any risk to my bankroll. The question still remains though: if I were to hit this long streak twice or three times in a year and would simply take the losses, would that ruin my overall winnings? Iam trying to figure this out by playing out simulations...but need to do much more than I've done so far...as thus far I have simply not hit a streak of this sort on the past events (tournaments, matches) I've looked at.
mick
Sire
Well said and so true.Force the find and long term the profits will take care of themselves.
ARAZI91
Mare
On another note i was googling "gambling streaks" or similar last night and came across the legendary Archie Karas , who i had saw in a previous documentary on a poker show and forgot about him.
Archie Karas - Wikipedia
would make a good movie.
Archie Karas - Wikipedia
would make a good movie.
Have never heard of it..but yeah, what a crazy story. Definitely a good movie.
Got it, I'll read through it carefully - if he's used also past data, and not just math. principles, then the whole thing might be really just a silly idea to discard. Well at least I have not yet lost any money trying to do that.
ARAZI91
Mare
And that would be a good thing , right?
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Arazi91, I have read it now closer. You have actually really helped me. His paper - the excel sheet (didn't pay attention to that) - is great.
But let me know tell you what i had in mind when I said maths vs. reality>
Buchadal writes:
"Suppose instead we decided to bet at odds of 10.00. This time, the maximum losing sequence we could accommodate would be 43, much larger because of the slower rate of progression in the stake size growth. However, over the course of 365 bets, we might see such a sequence 3 times."
(talking about a 8 streak win sequence)
Here he simply uses math: 0,5 over 8 multiplied by the number of events.
But let us try to translate the same mathematical principal into real life:
in a tennis player's career (on the ATP level), this would mean that someone like Julien Benneteau, who has played 559 thus far has had at least 4 consecutive streaks with 7 matches or more won, or almost 9 consecutive streaks at six matches won in a row. But Benneteau has never done any of this.
On the other hand, the chances of someone getting more than 20 wins in a row (let alone 30 or 40) is...well you'd need about 1 000 000 matches before this happens. Federer, who's played only 1400 matches on ATP in his life, managed to get that streak at least 3 times (insert Nadal and Djokovic too).
Do you see what I meant with the math vs. reality when it comes to odds?
Well you could point out that I am using the statistical outliers here. And you would be right. But so far as I've looked, the mathematical odds of losing or winning (on which Buchadal's paper is based) do not really describe what's happening in real tennis across hundreds of players.
OnTheNod
Mare
Reverse betting is maybe always best if you prefer increasing your stakes, but even that can wipe a bank over a long period in certain situations.
The best way is always a level stake because no person knows the future exact, and believe me what can happen does at times even more so with sports and horse racing betting in todays world.
I like maths like yourself and once did a project on numbers and chance, and even with a fair advantage in my favour which i also conducted it over a million trials, and then i broke it down into various sections and at at times it had tremendous lulls that could wipe a huge bank it opened my eyes to reality for sure.
The best way is always a level stake because no person knows the future exact, and believe me what can happen does at times even more so with sports and horse racing betting in todays world.
I like maths like yourself and once did a project on numbers and chance, and even with a fair advantage in my favour which i also conducted it over a million trials, and then i broke it down into various sections and at at times it had tremendous lulls that could wipe a huge bank it opened my eyes to reality for sure.
Super interesting: could you elaborate on what kind of data/time series did you do this on? I.e. if you remember more, I'd like to hear your findings.
ARAZI91
Mare
I think really what you are proposing is some offshoot variation of Martingale with stop-loss and adjustable margins etc , and all i can say is Best Of luck - i still would contact Peter May (as
Chesham advised) or maybe even Joe Buchadal (i'm sure he is on Twitter) the other person who would probably give you a response is Leighton Vaughan Williams (he does answer on twitter) who has written many studies on Prediction Markets and Optimal Strategies both in Betting Markets and Finance and is kind of the UK's answer to William Ziemba (Dr Z)Anyhoo I wish you well
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OnTheNod
Mare
Hi! I used an open university programme for numbers and probability which was given in a module and was taken back at the end of the term, their questions were fairly easy ones to programme and work with. But i setup this idea in my spare time with the programme because it could work with millions of trials in just seconds, i just set it up with the 37 numbers like in roulette, and worked with odds of around 15% in my favour and a run of one million trials, then i broke them down into sections of various intersecting amounts, also their was a facility to see the peaks and troughs in those sections as a percentage value, then i factored these sections in using an imaginary bank at level stakes.
Was all good fun as well! i love maths but they do have limitations with some endless configuration models like within physics, as i think some have founds out but certain laws and models can show some useful information and aid us as well.
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ARAZI91
Mare
Sounds like the premise of an old BBC2 documentary from the 70s
They used to put them on before University Challenge to "wet the appetite"
Boots
Stallion
My modus was backing the fav untill one came in but to limit my exposure I only played 6 race meetings. I either won by the end and I could comtinue to play on other meetings or I went home. If I had to go through the card before I got my win I used to get some nasty looks from the bookies so I spread my business around many places.
I don't know much about tennis betting but I understand that backing the match is not such a good idea as the prices are very low and most of the money in a tennis game revolves around points, games and sets. The only unlimited item within that lot is games in the fifth set so avoid that. By keeping your potential series within a match means a. you will most probably be able to get a bet on and b. you keep control of the possible downside. It also enables you to take a different approach with different matches even if the players are the same.
OnTheNod
Mare
I use to do that here at the local Greyhound Track has gone now, but not always favourites i just ran a cycle from meeting to meeting but most times i hit in few picks was a flapping track but it did not work anywhere else i used the times, class, and the draw.