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Class Ratings - prize money

runnerjp

Gelding
Hi Guys,

Firstly my apology for asking another question rather then supplying an answer but currently creating my own rating system to test out and im currently looking at class form class ratings based on prize money.

My question is would it be better to look at a horses Winnings - cutting out the nearly's or looks at their Earnings so include the places ?

I know most class ratings look at winners but why not use Earnings which includes those close 2nd and 3rd... still shows they have been targeted for that level and are able to complete surly? Also how many races would you need to asses a horses ability and class?
 
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Hello runnerjp runnerjp,

I can think of a number of ways you could look at a class form rating.

I think breeders use earnings per run, which I've tested and is a good way of knocking out no hopers.

VDW had the ability rating, winnings in 100s divided by number of wins. To show the class of the horse and penalty value in 100s to show class of race. He also had the consistency rating, sum of last 3 completed runs finishing positions with anything 10th and above counted as a ten, this runs from 3 to 30 with smaller numbers best.

You can take ability rating divided by consistency rating for a class form rating.

Similarly you can take the class of the last completed race and divide by actual finishing position. I use this and it is good. This was first put forward by Fulham on another board.

Something else I use I call CIC which is the highest penalty value in the last 3 completed runs in which the horse finished in the first half of field. That works quite well.

Finally instead of the ability rating you can use the class of the race in which the horse had its biggest win by penalty value.

I think that is a pretty good selection to get you going

Good luck tomorrow
 
hedgehog hedgehog thanks thats is plenty to keep me occupied today lol . I like the cic approach and will add that into the pot as it looks like a nice way of finding its competitive peak sort of speak. I will add my journey with this in here to allow others to do the same ;)
 
I have my own class rating based on total prize money won and number of runs, it's as 'statistically strong' as the BHA rating, so it's definitely something worth looking at.
However just like any others I've created or 3rd party ratings such as the BHA rating, their statistical strength is much greater for stakes races than handicaps.
 
Just to Give some insight on what im thinking about for anyone who pops along who don't have their names in green (sucking eggs and all that) or the blue guys who know their stuff like pawras pawras.

For me the class aspect is used to help narrow down the field. Using my running knowledge if I enter any local 10k (when fit - *cough* current from stat needed *cough*) without beating my own drum I look to win most races ... but what is more interesting is how far up can I go until the race out weighs my abilities - so for instance lining up in the Olympic 10k (dead last I think).

What the rating will do is narrow down (important words there as its not a sole value to find the winner or loser) the field to help me concentrate on those who look capable in the race class wise! Note that I don't expect this to completely remove horses either as those horses that have the 'class' to win the race might not have nay current form!
 
Everyone likes to do their own thing but personally I'm more likely to use the narrow down approach with a principal race which has it's own history. E.g. for the King George VI all winners from 2000 onwards had least a rating of 70 (out of 100) for my own class rating based on prize money and total runs.
 
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