Compiling National Hunt Ratings

[TheBluesBrother]

Well I finally came up with a new method of rating national hunt races.

I realised a long time ago that the method which I used for the speed ratings on the flat cannot not be used
when compiling national hunt ratings as the two are just not compatible i.e. different weight scales.

First of all I need a weight plus a rating to work from as standard, and working out the figures I ended up with a weight of 11-0 and a rating of 130.

The problem with slow run races makes working out the going allowance very difficult, I over came that problem by using the fastest three pace figures, plus new method of working out the ratings first, before I
end up with a going allowance.

In the form section when it says that a hurdle or chase was omitted you could subtract 1 point from the ratings, personally I wouldn't bother.

Here is a few meetings which I have already rated for the form buffs to rip apart...

http://tinyurl.com/lafyu56

 

[mlmrob]

Cheers Mike,thats a brilliant piece of work.

Acapulco Gold looks one to follow next time 127 off 115. If were lucky he might not go up that much and he can dot up in another 0-120. Somehow though I think the handicapper will have his say.

Wild Geese who was second produced 129 off 120 and he may well bve able to get in another 0-120.

Brimham Boy is interesting, he recorded 113 off 95 but he would never have won if Darnborough has stayed on his feet. Do you have a figure that Darnborough would have run to if he had won by the 5ls he was clear when he fell.It's all surmising but Darnborough was only 1lb above his last winning mark and I'm sure the handicapper will react whilst I don't expect Brimham Boy to go up.

Neverownup produced 99 off 80 in that race as well which would suggest he's going to go close soon

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Whether or not the improver method that we use for the flat works for the NH remains to be seen, this is still work in progress.

Dave Edwards "Top Speed" uses a weight of 11-7 and a rating of 135 when compiling his figures for the national hunt, when
I looked at this it just didn't look right, this might explain that when there was a mixed meeting of flat and jumps he ended up
with two different going allowances even when both codes were run adjacent to each other.

I often heard Mick Fitzgerald state that you should add 40lbs to a horses flat rating to get an idea what he should achieve when running over the jumps
and when I was working out my standard I found that the figures said 27lb for the hurdles and 33lb for the chases, hence taking the average of the
two weights I ended up the standard figure of 130 working with a weight of 11-0, hopefully this will bring the two codes into line.

When I was working out the figures for the jumps I was paying attention to the national hunt flat races and the ratings to me looked to be about right.

Today I will backtrack and add some more meetings to the the list...

 

[hayzee]

BB,let me say that imo a good speed fig is a great box to have ticked,and your work shows dedication and innovation.
I mention that first,because,as per,my comments can be viewed as something akin to the Emperor's New Clothes and being facetious,which in this case anyway,is certainly not intended.
My base problem with speed figs,is that the raw times are telling us what the horse has done,not what it is capable of,and any 'adjusted' figs eg; Topspeed,are purely an opinion.
As you may know,my 'guesstimate' of any 'unknown variables' in any race is 20%,and falling into this category is the fact that trainers are the best judges of a horse's capability,ok,we know that some run a horse at the wrong track(eg;left handed)over the wrong distance,on the wrong going to get a mark,they obviously 'clock' at home,under the best conditions for the horse a time that only they know,making the job of the Official Handicapper,and any attempt at a true speed rating very difficult,to say the least.
Even when we have a very good idea of a horse's capabilities,the tempo of the race/conditions/health of the animal etc; have got to be spot on,for any speed ratings to be really meaningful, acase of trying to make an exact science out of a game that really is a gamble,however much we kid ourselves,but,as we have seen with Mick's profiling,Rob's brilliant analysis,Chesham's insight and the work of yourself and notable others,the more you practice,the luckier you get

 

[arkle55]

How many trainers have a 3 mile+ gallop.

Arkle

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mike

The problem with NH races is that the Timing equipment on the Photo Finish Equipment is not triggered automatically, a flag is waved from the start point when the tape got up and then the Timing equipment is triggered. The Start of races can be very slow until the first fence hurdle. Some have suggested hand timing form the time the First Hurdle or Fence is Jumped

Good Luck

Chesham

 

[TheBluesBrother]

The thought behind my method of calculating national hunt ratings is the same as my flat speed figures where I
compare the speed figures against the BHA official ratings to find horses that are well handicapped which I refer to as "Improver's", usually
anything which is +10 is worth a second look.

Looking at yesterday meeting at Bangor-on-dee the stand-out performance was Clondaw Draft +10 who ran in the 2.20 and he produced
the best figure on the day of 126, possibly his next run will be over fences.

 

[Chesham]

The thought behind my method of calculating national hunt ratings is the same as my flat speed figures where I
compare the speed figures against the BHA official ratings to find horses that are well handicapped which I refer to as "Improver's", usually
anything which is +10 is worth a second look.

Looking at yesterday meeting at Bangor-on-dee the stand-out performance was Clondaw Draft +10 who ran in the 2.20 and he produced
the best figure on the day of 126, possibly his next run will be over fences.

I think that you would have the best NH speed figures around if you hand timed from the time the first fence was Jumped and build up unique Standard times on that basis. Too many times you see horses walk into the start of the race. Yesterday Clondaw Draft was a front runner so would have kicked off in earnest when the tapes went up, but some of the other races they just dawdled into the early part of the race and difficult to get a true measure of their TIME ability

Good Luck

Chesham

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I use the 3 fastest pace figures to calculate the going allowance plus other variables like my unique lbs per length, there was a race the other day where the jockeys stood
still for about 5 seconds at the start.

The one thing that was obvious to me, was the old adage that 1lb equals one length over jumps, this is so far out it is frightening.

At the moment I am back tracking and adding other meetings to the list, and checking that the going allowances are correct.

 

[Chesham]

The one thing that was obvious to me, was the old adage that 1lb equals one length over jumps, this is so far out it is frightening.

If the racing post ever get around to publishing the finishing times for all horse from the Photo Finish Equipment you would not need to worry about beaten lengths as you could compare each runners actual finish time with what ever standard time you were using

http://www.irishracing.com/result?race=Galway-Wed-11th-Sep-2013-1630&prc=089&prd=201309111630

Example



Donatis Comet (IRE) 11-9 (Terence Honniball)

(3:49.4) (







Run For Firth (IRE) 11-12 (Kieran Purcell)

(3:49.3






Ittimetogo (IRE) 11-5 (John F O'Neill)

(3:52.1)






Lost Book (IRE) 11-5 (T C Quinn)

(3:53.8)


The list goes on from 1st to last

The Racing Post is given the data from the Photo Finish Equipment (The BHA told Me) just as the Irish Racing equivalent of the Racing Post does for Irish Racing, its just that the Racing Post does not bother to publish the information.

Good Luck

Chesham

 

[arkle55]

Clondaw Draft cost £85 000. He' jumping was slick and might go over fences next. CD appears to be going in the right direction, why is the trainer thinking about fences at this stage. CD has only had 6 runs never been out of the first two. Although CD has won a point to point surely it would be best to stay with hurdles for the time being.

Arkle