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Daily ramblings and choices

Jamie

Jamie

Colt
Although I signed up as member of this forum just over two years ago, this specific post will only be my 130th offering to this community. I initially joined, had a look around and life kind of got in the way. Why am I highlighting how many posts I've made, you may ask? Well, it's because I have become a lot more active in the past few months and I want this stage to act as something I can look back on as I plan on sticking around for the foreseeable future.

My interest in racing started in 2008 when I attended Newcastle races one Saturday afternoon, despite my dad having a bet and watching the racing regularly in my developmental years, so I by no means consider myself a polished punter and I realise that I still have lots to learn. I'm astounded by the level of knowledge, enthusiasm and expertise of many on this forum and I am hoping that slowly but surely some of that knowledge will rub off on me.

Although I am not yet a professional bettor, I am lucky that I only have to work in a regular job three evenings a week as I do make a regular income from gambling related activities - just not enough to balance the books!

Anyway, my reason for starting this blog is to highlight and provide some reasoning for my daily bets. I usually like to go for multiples, so lets see what happens...
 
I'd have liked to have posted these up a bit earlier than this but today has been gym day (and I didn't get up until around 10:30am :whistle:) .

I will try a little win only treble with Cheat The Cheater (3:10), Firsty (3:20) and Wayward Frolic (5;30).

All three have been taken from my multiple entry thread, although this will not always be the case.

Cheat The Cheater won with plenty in hand LTO and is top on both HRB and VDW ratings. Other positives are that Richard Johnson has rode almost double the amount of chase winners in the past year that the rest of the jockeys in the field have combined!

Firsty goes straight into a novice hurdle after arriving from France. Nicholls is in decent enough form, although the 5yo will have to contend with an odds on runner from the Skeltons. I like taking into consideration the highest amount of prize money the horse has contested and Firsty was 2nd in a 3yo hurdle in 2014, worth 19k, whereas Skelton's Captain Chaos was 2nd in a Grade 2 worth 2k less in Dec '15.

Wayward Frolic leads the way on one of Chesham Chesham 's tables and should be fit having raced only 8 days ago. It's interesting to note that the last time that the horse switched from chase to hurdles that it won by a massive 54L, although that was a selling hurdle race. This, however, is only a cl5, so many of the other runners may be of a similar standard. He is the only course winner in the field, which I also view as a positive.



The treble was struck with Ladbrokes at 143/1.
 
Good luck Jamie Firsty finish second to a horse now running over here trained by jonjo owned by JP Box office and now has a uk mark of 135 the third is now over here too and trained by brian ellison and has a mark of 140 so it looks good strong form the skelton horse is 141 today so it will be interesting to see how the marks compare i am on Chaos but if my one doesnt winn i hope yours does

regards

Frank
 
Well done with the first of your treble winning and I don't think another of the Jockeys in that race would have got Cheat The Cheater up like Johnson did
 
Thanks Franktheform Franktheform I thought I was out in the first race but Johnson pulled a stunning comeback out of the bag!

I'm not quite at the stage of analysing the marks of other horses from previous races yet.

I hope Captain Chaos wins the photo for you.
 
Plenty of racing with large fields today. However, I'm going with another treble where there are modest field sizes and take Sunblazer (2:45), Festive Fare (3:20) & Abbey Angel (3:55).

Sunblazer is dropping down in class and looks to be a tad overpriced. He's failed on four attempts at the track but the sire's progeny perform well on the surface. The 6yo has won his last two races and trainer, Kim Bailey had a Saturday winner this time last year at Newcastle.

Festive Fare lines up in the Winter Derby and came top on my dosage analysis, when comparing the profiles of the past winners of this race. Charlie Appleby dominated this meeting last year with 4 wins.

Abbey Angel is taken from my multiple entry thread. She, too, is dropping down a class and coming off of two wins, however she's yet to be tried at the track. Richard Fahey hasn't had any winners in the past week, although he maintains a healthy 79%RTF.

157.5/1 with Stan James
 
Chesham Chesham & arkle55 arkle55 I only had the treble on both winners, so unfortunately my balance doesn't look as good as it would if I had gone singles! Most definitely something for me to think about in the future...
 
Today plan of action involves Golanova (2:50), Sleepysioux (3:50) & Mount Shamsan (4:10).

I picked the two Moore runners out last night as they were both in my multiple entry list and was intending to go with an ew double today as the latter of the two was forecasted at 20/1, but a quick look on oddschecker confirms that the highest price available in the early hours was 5/1. I was drawn to Mount Shamsan because of the trainers fine record in selling hurdles.

As the price isn't so large, however, I've decided to add Sleepysioux, who I see as the likely winner in the 3:50; in fact she is the only runner of the field who has shed her maiden tag and is, naturally, leading on HRB and VDW ratings.

Golanova seems to like Fontwell after winning at the track ten days ago and finishing 2nd back in 2013. Hopefully he can continue his fine track form.

I have taken 90/1 with Boylesports for the treble.
 
Cumbrian Farmer (2:00) lines up at a featherweight 9-13 after taking into account the jockey's allowance. Trainer, Kenneth Slack is 2/3 in the last 14 days and a very impressive 14/54 since he has held a training licence. The 9yo is the only course winner here, having won 4 of 2 at the track.

Slack's other runner takes part in the 3:30 and I feel a bit torn between that and Bollin Line, who were both multiple entrants last night. However, Bollin Line is also carrying a featherweight and his price is less than half of his forecast. Bollin Line won his only race here at Catterick in the past, although he is very lightly raced for a 9yo.

Completing the treble is Wintered Well (5:00) who is also a multi entrant. This one is 2lb shy of topweight but is piloted by the Champion elect, who currently enjoys a 14 day 33% strike rate. In the early hours, 5/1 was available for this Jennie Candlish runner, but is now 5/2 best price.

This trio is available as a treble of 53/1 with many firms.
 
I'm combing the quartet of Quite By Chance (2:45), Israfel (2:55), Tagrita (3:55) & Ajig (5:45) today in a lucky 15. All except QBC have been taken from my multiple entry thread, which I tend to use as benchmark these days when making my mind up. Israfel and Tagrita also lead the way on both HRB & VDW ratings (Tagrita's also the race pick using a ratings system by Chesham Chesham) I also feel that Israfel has been treated quite kindly by the handicapper as he is the only runner to have previously won a race, yet is rated 7lbs less than the top weight. Hopefully there is more to come!

Quite By Chance almost made it three consecutive wins at Wincanton LTO but was just held. Paddy Brennan has the ride today. Interestingly, a Colin Tizzard trained runner also won this race last year.

Ajig lost LTO by less than a length and now has 5lb taken off with an apprentice who's very capable, although he hasn't had a UK ride since November last year. I'm assuming that he's been doing some extra learning abroad for the winter but can't find any solid evidence of that, so will take my chances.
 
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