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Daily ramblings and choices

3:15 Ayr - Attempt 1, 1, 2, 1, 3 at nv hcp hurdles for the previous winners of this race, which doesn't rule any out from this 11 runner field, but all have had at least one previous win, which significantly does. Past two winners have won after entering hcp company for the first time, so it's hard to look past Uncle Alistair, who's already 3 wins from 4 at the track and is a tasty 15/2 with Bet 365. Also fancy Trongate, who has a decent course record, for a 33/1 place.

7:15 Southwell - Attempt 1, 1, 1, 1, 3 here. Therefore, I'm only looking at those who are taking there first dip in nv hcp hurdles. Several past winners have come into the race with some sort of form but that is not really the case this year. Runners carrying a lot of weight have historically not done very well, so will take a chance on Oscar Bravo to show a big improvement now ran in a handicap and snatch a place. 14/1 enhanced 4 places with bet365
 
Uncle Alistair placed at 9/1, although I had win only. Oscar Bravo finished 3rd at 33/1 :handgestures-thumbup:

Would have been a lovely double.
 
Ayr 2:20 - Attempt 2, 1, 1, 3, 2 for past winners of this nv hcp chase and all but one of those had previous hcp chase experience, which takes the 17 strong field down to 11. The handicapper's surely got Crosshue Boy a few lbs out considering he placed in an Irish Grade 2 at the start of the ,month on 132 and is 136 here? Also like Acdc who handles the track well. 20/1 and 22/1, respectively.
 
It's not often I get to blow my own trumpet, but that was near perfect! My stronger bet was on the winner, too :happy-wavemulticolor:

Need to start collating these results but I'm sure they are showing a level profit. Not that I had it, but £47.10 for the tote swinger return is also something to consider for the future.
 
1:30 Newton Abbot - Attempt 1, 2, 1, 2. 2 for previous 5 winners which reduces the field by two. All have been bred for NH, slashing the possibilities to 5. The 12/1 about Scorpion Star, who takes his first foray into nv hcp hurdles, seems a backable ew price.
 
No luck Monday but one of the 5 was Geni Johnson, who placed at 50/1 but her lack of hcp experience put me off...

Ludlow - Nv hcp hurdle attempt 1, 1, 1, 1, 2 for this race's previous winners; therefore only considering those who are making their first attempt, today. It takes the field of 15 down to 9. All winners had previous hcp hurdle experience, which only leaves 3 - Third Estate, Predict A Riot & Zoltan Varga and of those 3, I prefer PAR, who's currently priced at 20/1 as jockey and trainer have placed twice in 3 hcp hurdle races in the past 365 days.
 
3rd and 4th for the other two mentioned runners, although my selection pulled up.

Taunton 6:15 - Attempt 3, 1, 6, 3, 3 suggest that it may take a more experienced runner to win this nv hcp chase and there are only 4 in this field of 10 who I consider to be experienced; Spoilt Rotten, Tikkinthebox, Brinestone and Badilou. The first two are ridden by conditionals and the race has been won by a professional jockey on the last 5 occasions. Badilou has gone up 1lb despite being PU lto, whereas Brinestone has dropped 4lb and was competitive on a similar mark last year. The 9yo will have to contend with a long absence but has won at the course before. 12/1 ew Betvictor
 
Perth's 4:15 has been ran as a nv hcp chase for the past four years, winners were competing in their 1st, 1st, 2nd and 1st such race. There are 6 runners today and the bottom weight, Strong Resemblance, is the least exposed (one previous). The 7yo has had WS since his last run 173 days ago. 8/1 ew Betvictor.
 
Never under estimate a conditional as Tikkinthebox wins, while Brinestone grabs a place at 18/1. Strong Resemblance fell.

3:30 - Record of 5, 1, 5, 3, 1 makes this a tricky one. Two runners have already have five nv hcp chase runs, so I feel they can be forgotten about. Top weight, Ballyarthur, won a better race than this lto and can hopefully do it again. 2/1

5:10 - 1, 2, 6, 3 1 for this nv hcp hurdle almost halves the field. Most winners had previous recent good form prior to running here, which can only point to Henry's Joy, who also won a better race than this lto. 9/4
 
Winner with Ballyarthur and at a better price, 5/2!

4:20 Punchestown has been won for each of the last 5 years by a runner taking part in their first nv hcp chase, where the biggest price has been 20/1. It's been dominated by Mullins and Jessie Harrington and all but one in that period have won at the track previously - the other placed. Top weights have not fared well, at least in the last 5 runnings and the only other Mullins runner that is a course winner is Montalbano. Last ran 26 days ago, which coincidentally was the days since last run for the past two winners. 25/1 ew 6 runners 1/5 skybet
 
Montalbano did not finish anywhere, but of course, the Mullins top weight course winner won the race!

5:05 Uttoxeter - 2, 4, 1, 3, 4 hcp nv chase attempts for the past five winners of this race. Four winners have been running from a reduced mark and top weight has taken the race three times. 16 go to post here and taking out those who are yet to run over bigger obstacles reduces the number to 9. Zanstra's mark has slowly been dropping, yet he's picked up place money quite often. He will be competing in his 4th such race and I think he is better than the handicapper suggests and will at least be able to grab another placing. 7/1 ew currently.
 
Zanstra grabbed 3rd (y)

2:40 Warwick - Three previous runnings of this race and all three winners have won it at their first nv hcp chase attempt, which was also their first races over fences. Ten in the field today and if the trend continues, only four fit the profile. The three winners have been turned out again within a month and two of today's four have; Le Precieux and All Is Good. My preference is for the French horse, who at 12/1 offers better ew value.
 
Got a decent run for my money, there. Windspiel (3rd) was one of the four. Doubt it made much difference, but Le Precieux did run over fences in France. One of the HRB downfalls.

7:00 Ludlow - 3, 2, 3 in this nv hcp chase. Was ran at a different track prior. Only one runner has competed in such a race previously and that's Bach de Clermont, who's currently 5/2 fav with Ladbrokes.
 
Bach De Clermont's jumping let him down when vying for the lead and it all went downhill from there!

6:20 Wincanton - 5 previous winners of this race, only one which was taking their first race over fences. That alone reduces this field of 8 by three. Record of winners is 3, 3, 1, 4, 2 nv hcp chase attempts and the remaining four winners were previously unexposed in chases, which I feel takes Third Act out of the reckoning, leaving just four. Two Hoots & Tikkinthebox has already ran in four of these races and of the two left, I prefer my money to be on Overawed, as I have had more success in the past when Brennan is riding, compared to Crosse. 15/2 generally

For the past two weeks, Skybet have emailed me an offer of £10 free bet if staking £10 throughout the week. Freebet to be used on one bet. Have used that today, ew.
 
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7:00 Southwell - Attempt 3, 3, 1, 1 for the four previous winners of this race, which would only rule Dans Quest out from the field of 9 here today. It is only the 2014 winner that has not had previous handicap experience, however, which would take today's runners down to 5 and I think a case can be made for Arthurs Reuben, who was raised 1lb by the handicapper despite finishing 6L 5th to the winner LTO in a 0 - 115, considering this is a 0 - 100.
2/1 generally.
 
Arthurs Reuben pulled up. Winner, Flying Verse won on his first nv hcp hdl attempt after three previous hcp hdl attempts. 11/1

2:35 Newton Abbott - Three previous runnings of this nv hcp chase. Attempt 5, 2, 3 for winners. There are a number of runners in this race who are competing for the first time over fences, so i'll be discounting them and also Posh Totty, who has already won such a race. This leaves 3; Good Man Vinnie, Dancing Conquest and Badilou. GMV previously placed on today's mark of 106 in a similar race, top weighted today and is my preference over the other two qualifiers.
 
Good win by GMV, who finished at 11/4 after I backed him at 11/2 at the time that I posted this morning.

6:35 Perth - 2, 2, 1, 2, 2 nv hcp chase attempts for the previous 5 winners, here. The first time over fences winner did it straight after 3 maiden hurdle attempts. Eight in the field, today and only two fit the profile of previous winners, imo, and that's Motion To Strike and Fit For Fifty, who faced each other lto. Both have dropped 2lbs after less than impressive performances, but as FFF finished ahead of MTS, despite being rated 8lbs lower and is also entered here tomorrow, the 6yo is my preference. 9/2
 
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