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Days since last run

Discussion in 'Chat' started by Jamie, Jul 17, 2017.

  1. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    I notice a high number horses winning after a 16 day (or very similar) absence. Does anyone have any reasonable explanation for this?
     
  2. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Don't really know @Jamie - maybe the optimum compromise between giving the horse time to recover from the last run and keeping it race fit ?
     
  3. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    That mirrors my own thoughts @dave58

    Thanks
     
    dave58 likes this.
  4. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    Maybe try and make a note of which trainers are involved as it may be a reflection of a trainers modus.

    Regards

    Hippo
     
    Jamie likes this.
  5. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Below is this months 16 day winners - minus Monday. There have been 232 qualifiers for a single point loss. I'm now keeping track in a HRB system and will report back with any findings.


    upload_2017-7-18_2-10-3.png
     
    Chesham likes this.
  6. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Thanks for the suggestion @Hippomoomoo

    I ran it through HRB and for the last two years, Richard Fahey is the most often trainer to run horses from his yard after 16 days - 107 times, which resulted in 19 winners. That's a level stake profit of 18.55 (17% ROI). Next is Hannon - 60 runners/11 winners for an almost 10% ROI.

    There are lots of other well known trainers that are showing a profit, too.
     
  7. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    Interesting but I would be somewhat reluctant to just stick to '16days' as that in all likelihood is just chance but would be interested in say a 14-20 day break period etc.

    What are the Chi & A/E for the 16day results?

    Regards

    Hippo
     
  8. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    16 days is just a start @Hippomoomoo

    As I said when starting the thread, 'or very similar' absence. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day ;)

    Since 2016, Chi is 10.62 and A/E is 0.88.

    Yesterday's winners were Sayem, Fools and Kings, Golden Salute & Be Kool.

    Today's are Dwynant & Purple and Gold.
     
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  9. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    I would imagine the A/E would improve if certain trainers were focused upon.

    Winners are winners though and more importantly profit is profit.
     
  10. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    Might be worth looking at sires and sire stats for this as well, although that tends to be for quick returners/long layoffs rather than a specific rest period in days. As Hippo says 16 days exactly might just have occurred due to random luck!
     
  11. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Tuesday's two did not finish anywhere.

    16 days is the magic number, I feel. One day either side might also apply, but 16 is certainly the master. Sometimes we make things far too complicated, so it's refreshing that this is simple, although I certainly wouldn't advocate betting every selection blind!

    Below is Wed's qualifiers. I particularly like Ritas Man, who has previously won after a 15 & 17 day break. Trained by Richard Hannon. 16/1 is just too juicy to resis a little ew dabble!

    upload_2017-7-19_0-0-25.png
     
  12. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    Hi @Jamie I don't want to be negative but I think you need to be careful with this system; here are the results going back to 2007 for DSLR 16 exactly:

    Year.JPG


    Archie.JPG

    The archie (chi) for these is saying that the (negative ROI) results and A/E of less than 1 in all but 2 years are very unlikely to be due to chance (17 corresponds to a probability of less than 0.0005% that the negative results are due to chance)

    I think you're possibly getting quite enthusiastic because of the results so far this year, but note that the system as such hasn't had the typical ~1000 runs/year yet so it may revert to unprofitability soon. To be honest I don't think that 16 is a 'magic number' based on the above.
     
  13. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Thanks @BH01

    My post probably does read a bit too enthusiastically but I do state caution. There's so much more to investigate, such as will the 16 day break apply to ALL race classifications or be suited more to handicaps etc.

    It's something to look into in the future but there's no rush.
     
  14. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    @Jamie Yeah fair dos-last ran intervals are definitely useful, I've only just recently got into systems and have learned through making some early mistakes that looking at very specific values for wide-ranging sets of data (like last ran, weight, OR etc) can quite easily become backfitting-I seem to recall there's some quite good posts on this forum about that. If you can find evidence of why this sort of last ran interval is significant then by all means share what you find! Cheers
     
  15. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @Jamie

    I have just looked at a few of my Trainer Systems and checked the days since last ran ( Not included in the filters for those systems ) and each trainer seems to have a sweet spot Band for days since ran that improves the Strike rate, A/E and Chi of the system.
     
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  16. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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    Afternoon @Jamie,

    I have a 4-5 day system that I set up in 2013.
    It concentrates on flat and AW.
    As always those to the fore in the market perform best.

    1905 bets
    570 winners

    Just short of 30% win strike rate & a small loss to level stakes.
    A number of trainers hit 50% & are worth following.

    Note - one losing run of 37 would screw anyone wanting to use it as a system!

    Maybe an area worth researching.

    Regards,
     
  17. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    I seem to remember seeing something by @Chesham from a little while ago that involved LTO winners and had a specific days since last ran in, not sure of the exact details
     
  18. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Fillies who win and then return to the track quickly in mixed sex races, is a profitable avenue
     
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  19. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    Ah yes could have been that. Re. Fillies and Mares is there a seasonal bias as well with the 'sun on their backs' theory?
     
  20. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @BH01
    There are a few angles with days since run. Roger Charlton is not one to bring out horses quickly after a run, but in June, July, August & September, he has a couple of handicappers each year that he sends out within 7 days and rare for one to lose

    The other angle is if you are Trending the bigger Races (I don't think you can do NH with FS RSB)

    Some horses should not have had too many runs with the run up to a big race

    Example



    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.09.png




    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.28.png

    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.44.png

    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.53.png

    If you note the last paragraph @BH01 it mentions Nicky Henderson bringing one to the race from the Supreme Novice Hurdle

    Spring forward a couple of years and he repeats the same pattern with Buveur Dair, 3rd in the Supreme Novice at Cheltenham then next put in the Top Novice at Aintree

    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.47.33.png

    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.47.58.png
     

    Attached Files:

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  21. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    Thanks @Chesham I'll have a look at the Charlton angle. Yes NH isn't something I can do at the moment unfortunately.

    Thanks
     
  22. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    If you use the HRB Profiler for each horse in a race you will notice that certain DSLR brackets are a sweet spot for a horse and those would perhaps be best focusing on in combination with other factors such as trainer, track suitability etc.
     
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  23. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    You really need HRB RSB

    I could never understand when I was a FS User (Monster) why BHA Ratings were not available as a Filter

    You can't yet access the class ratings (First introduced on FS under the name Monster ) Now available on the Inner Sanctum Utilities for every race

    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 22.16.16.png
     
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  24. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Thanks for all the responses.

    Sadly, Ritas Man didn't do the business but Finsbury Park won and Misty Spirit placed. Both were second time out 2 year olds running in novice races.

    Despite having sent out just 114 runners, Finsbury Park's trainer, Robyn Brisland in now 3 winners from 5 following a 16 day break. Totally disregarded that one! :headbang:

    Here's today:

    upload_2017-7-20_0-30-36.png

    I quite fancy the last two, but I think my judgement might need recalibrating!
     
  25. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    @Chesham it doesn't bother me too much to be honest, possibly something for the future
     
  26. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Do you mean BHA Ratings don't bother you?
     
  27. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    Yes that's correct :)
     
  28. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Well, the two that I hoped would win did win, and my run of bad luck has continued as I've been too busy today to back them :( Fantasy Queen also won.



    upload_2017-7-21_0-28-58.png

    Liking Richard Guest's, Tellovoi, today. Trainer record is 4 wins in 15 using the 16 days indicator since 2016. However, three of those winners came last year.
     
  29. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    Well done with 2 you mentioned yesterday. Perhaps the best way forward is to use your list as a focal point and work from there rather than blindly backing all theoretical qualifiers.

    Regards

    Hippo
     
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  30. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @Jamie

    Tellovoi well out of it on the basis i analyse races --- hopefully i am not eating humble pie tomorrow! o_O

    Best of Luck

    Regards

    Hippo
     
  31. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    No need to eat humble pie @Hippomoomoo as Tellovoi finished well out of it - beaten by a younger horse with a 15 day break! I'd imagine the strike rate decreases for older horses anyway - something to add to the to do list :)

    More than just a few today. My diary is free for at least the next couple of days, so will start delving into this process more deeply.

    upload_2017-7-22_0-36-27.png

    Keeping my fingers crossed for Qeyaadah, Oliver Reed and Habbad.
     
  32. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    @ Jamie

    Best of luck.
     
  33. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Since 2016. Strange that Tuesday's bets are so low.
    upload_2017-7-22_13-36-36.png

    Predicted that strike rate would decrease the older the horse was. Correct.
    upload_2017-7-22_13-40-22.png

    Sorted into race type.
    upload_2017-7-22_13-42-43.png
    UK vs Ire. 3% difference
    upload_2017-7-22_13-56-28.png
     
  34. Jamie

    Jamie Colt

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    Neither of my three hopefuls won yesterday. The closest was Oliver Reed, who go beaten by another 16 day qualifier!

    Quite a few today, too!

    upload_2017-7-23_13-0-29.png

    The trainers of Buble, Kalinite and Vaulted have a good strike rate using this 16 day filter.
     

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