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Days since last run

#1
I notice a high number horses winning after a 16 day (or very similar) absence. Does anyone have any reasonable explanation for this?
 
#5
Below is this months 16 day winners - minus Monday. There have been 232 qualifiers for a single point loss. I'm now keeping track in a HRB system and will report back with any findings.


upload_2017-7-18_2-10-3.png
 
#6
Thanks for the suggestion @Hippomoomoo

I ran it through HRB and for the last two years, Richard Fahey is the most often trainer to run horses from his yard after 16 days - 107 times, which resulted in 19 winners. That's a level stake profit of 18.55 (17% ROI). Next is Hannon - 60 runners/11 winners for an almost 10% ROI.

There are lots of other well known trainers that are showing a profit, too.
 
#7
@Jamie

Interesting but I would be somewhat reluctant to just stick to '16days' as that in all likelihood is just chance but would be interested in say a 14-20 day break period etc.

What are the Chi & A/E for the 16day results?

Regards

Hippo
 
#8
16 days is just a start @Hippomoomoo

As I said when starting the thread, 'or very similar' absence. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day ;)

Since 2016, Chi is 10.62 and A/E is 0.88.

Yesterday's winners were Sayem, Fools and Kings, Golden Salute & Be Kool.

Today's are Dwynant & Purple and Gold.
 
#10
Might be worth looking at sires and sire stats for this as well, although that tends to be for quick returners/long layoffs rather than a specific rest period in days. As Hippo says 16 days exactly might just have occurred due to random luck!
 
#11
Tuesday's two did not finish anywhere.

16 days is the magic number, I feel. One day either side might also apply, but 16 is certainly the master. Sometimes we make things far too complicated, so it's refreshing that this is simple, although I certainly wouldn't advocate betting every selection blind!

Below is Wed's qualifiers. I particularly like Ritas Man, who has previously won after a 15 & 17 day break. Trained by Richard Hannon. 16/1 is just too juicy to resis a little ew dabble!

upload_2017-7-19_0-0-25.png
 
#12
Hi @Jamie I don't want to be negative but I think you need to be careful with this system; here are the results going back to 2007 for DSLR 16 exactly:

Year.JPG


Archie.JPG

The archie (chi) for these is saying that the (negative ROI) results and A/E of less than 1 in all but 2 years are very unlikely to be due to chance (17 corresponds to a probability of less than 0.0005% that the negative results are due to chance)

I think you're possibly getting quite enthusiastic because of the results so far this year, but note that the system as such hasn't had the typical ~1000 runs/year yet so it may revert to unprofitability soon. To be honest I don't think that 16 is a 'magic number' based on the above.
 
#13
Thanks @BH01

My post probably does read a bit too enthusiastically but I do state caution. There's so much more to investigate, such as will the 16 day break apply to ALL race classifications or be suited more to handicaps etc.

It's something to look into in the future but there's no rush.
 
#14
@Jamie Yeah fair dos-last ran intervals are definitely useful, I've only just recently got into systems and have learned through making some early mistakes that looking at very specific values for wide-ranging sets of data (like last ran, weight, OR etc) can quite easily become backfitting-I seem to recall there's some quite good posts on this forum about that. If you can find evidence of why this sort of last ran interval is significant then by all means share what you find! Cheers
 
#15
Hi @Jamie

I have just looked at a few of my Trainer Systems and checked the days since last ran ( Not included in the filters for those systems ) and each trainer seems to have a sweet spot Band for days since ran that improves the Strike rate, A/E and Chi of the system.
 
#16
Afternoon @Jamie,

I have a 4-5 day system that I set up in 2013.
It concentrates on flat and AW.
As always those to the fore in the market perform best.

1905 bets
570 winners

Just short of 30% win strike rate & a small loss to level stakes.
A number of trainers hit 50% & are worth following.

Note - one losing run of 37 would screw anyone wanting to use it as a system!

Maybe an area worth researching.

Regards,
 
#17
I seem to remember seeing something by @Chesham from a little while ago that involved LTO winners and had a specific days since last ran in, not sure of the exact details
 
#20
Hi @BH01
There are a few angles with days since run. Roger Charlton is not one to bring out horses quickly after a run, but in June, July, August & September, he has a couple of handicappers each year that he sends out within 7 days and rare for one to lose

The other angle is if you are Trending the bigger Races (I don't think you can do NH with FS RSB)

Some horses should not have had too many runs with the run up to a big race

Example



Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.09.png




Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.28.png

Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.44.png

Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.46.53.png

If you note the last paragraph @BH01 it mentions Nicky Henderson bringing one to the race from the Supreme Novice Hurdle

Spring forward a couple of years and he repeats the same pattern with Buveur Dair, 3rd in the Supreme Novice at Cheltenham then next put in the Top Novice at Aintree

Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.47.33.png

Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 18.47.58.png
 

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