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Dutching - Maiden Flat Racing

#1
Hi,

New to the UK Betting Forum but have been involved bettingwise with racing for over 40 years. During that time the only consistent profit-making method I've ever come across is dutching in Maiden flat races.

The 'system' is based on speed/time figure ratings - betting the top two qualifiers - so it is prone to getting turned over by an unraced horse. There is no way of avoiding this altogether although it's possible to minimise it by carefully selecting suitable races to dutch in.

I'll list all races/qualifiers irrespective if there is an obvious 'no bet' such as an odds-on Fav., or several unraced horses etc., etc. There are various alternatives to dutching these, equal stakes, the Danger staking, betting the highest rated, etc., but overall, dutching is best.

Flat turf is best, June to September is best period, AW is decent but there are various racecourses to avoid betting at but more of this later.

Today's bet:

2.45 S'well. -

Ceyhan (90) @ 4.5
Hot Natured (89) @ 5.9
 
#5
Thank you all for your good wishes.

The market yesterday showed us the way. Both selections drifted while the Fav was heavily backed throughout the day and won well.
Todays:

1.00 Wolv.

Hydroxide (90) - @ 3.1
Calypso Jo (88) - @ 8.4

2.35 Red.

Carigrad (99) - @4.1
Ninepin Bowler (97) - @ 5.4

3.10 Red.

Everything For You (97) - @4.00
Merlin (93) - @ 4.2
 
#6
The Wolverhampton race yesterday was one of the hottest Maidens held there this year and was definitely not a betting opportunity. Got the winners of the other two races though so not too bad.
Today's :

3.20 S'well.

Passcode (89) @ 2.06
Eddiebet (87) @ 3.25

4.35 New'm (NB. Grade 1 Racecourse - all of which have patchy overall records historically. Would not normally consider a bet here)

Top Mission (96) @ 2.86
Firefright (94) @ 3.6
 
#7
The New'm race ended up true to form ie. dead dodgy, but we got the winner at S'well.
Today's :

3.25 Bev.

Amlad (89) @ 2.79
Chippenham (87) @ 5.1

4.45 New'm (For info. only - no bet)

First Dance (94) @ 6.00
Glittering Jewel (90) @ 5.2

6.45 Wolv.

Ejaaby (88) @ 2.66
El Cap (88) @ 3.5
 
#9
As usual the New'm race was a loser but the other two won. The ratings at the Maidens at New'm today are both joint rated in first and second, ie. four bets in each race, so are not shown.
Today :

5.35 Rip.

Fujaria Bridge @ 2.48
Lamloon @ 5.2

7.50 Ling

Agathonia @ 3.7
Tristram @ 5.3
 
#10
Two winners yesterday. Ignoring Newbury today as historically it has a worse record than even Newmarket.
Today :

7.30 Bath

International Law @ 2.24
Fiendish @ 5.00
 
#11
Have you found over time that the tendency to produce horses ready to race, rather than run them fit as in the old days has affected results, also how is it affected by seasonal patterns, bringing better horses out later?
 
#13
Have you found over time that the tendency to produce horses ready to race, rather than run them fit as in the old days has affected results, also how is it affected by seasonal patterns, bringing better horses out later?
Been doing this seriously on a daily basis for around the last 11 years or so. What I've found over that time is :

Grade 1 courses are overall losers (but especially New'm & New'b) The bigger/better trainers race their better horses at the better tracks for the better prizemoney and the majority are all trying - especially so if the owner is present. This is not what I want. You can't second guess any FTO'ers at these courses and it's just not worth the risk. This is especially true later in the season when the better horses come out to play, fit and raring to go. In fact, I know a guy who reckons he makes money betting all horses whose first run was in a Newmarket Maiden the next twice out.

As far as seasonal patterns are concerned, late-June to mid-September each year seems to be the 'golden era' - large LSP by betting both horses irrespective ie. not dutching, during this period in 8 of the 11 years with the best ever showing 212 points LSP in 2014 but that was silly. However, no losses at all recorded during this period of the season.

2 yo Maidens are not as dodgy to bet in as you may think - the betting market is key though.

AW racing is OK out of the Flat season but surprisingly good during the season. The opposite of what I'd expect.

I never, ever bet/dutch a horse that's odds-on. In fact I lay (admittedly for small money) every maiden o/o Fav. especially on the AW.

Hope this helps.
 
#15
I noticed today that my posts are being moderated before being eventually posted. Can I ask why this is and is it just mjne or is eveyone's post being moderated ?
 

dave58

Administrator
#16
Hi @TonCon , it's nothing personal, it's just that once a forum gets a certain number of members it tends to attract some people that have agendas of their own outside our interests, so we have decided to install a series of 'hurdles' for potential members to negotiate before we accept them.
I know you have already been subjected to some security checks , and I apologise for that inconvenience, but hopefully once you've been with us for a while you will appreciate what we're doing and why we need to do it.
 
#17
Hi @TonCon , it's nothing personal, it's just that once a forum gets a certain number of members it tends to attract some people that have agendas of their own outside our interests, so we have decided to install a series of 'hurdles' for potential members to negotiate before we accept them.
I know you have already been subjected to some security checks , and I apologise for that inconvenience, but hopefully once you've been with us for a while you will appreciate what we're doing and why we need to do it.
Your train set so it's only right you get to say who plays with it, fair enough and no arguement here. No need to apologise but thank you for your explaination and kindness in doing so.
 
#18
Ignoring the New'b maidens while the one at Thirsk has joint top/second ratings so no bet there. There's an odds-on fav in the 8.15 Wolv so that's been ignored as well. Historically Saturdays are always the worst day for maidens betting so just the one bet today.

22/4/17

6.30 Nott

Crystal Ocean @ 2.64
Okool @ 3.35
 
Last edited:
#19
Dodged the bullet by ignoring Newbury with the three maiden races there returning winners at 25/1, 25/1 and 33/1.

Bit miffed that the 7/4 SP of the winner in the 6.30 was better than this morning's BF price. Doesn't happen very often but it still hurts when it does.