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Dutching - Maiden Flat Racing

Discussion in 'System Testing' started by TonCon, Apr 16, 2017.

  1. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Hi,

    New to the UK Betting Forum but have been involved bettingwise with racing for over 40 years. During that time the only consistent profit-making method I've ever come across is dutching in Maiden flat races.

    The 'system' is based on speed/time figure ratings - betting the top two qualifiers - so it is prone to getting turned over by an unraced horse. There is no way of avoiding this altogether although it's possible to minimise it by carefully selecting suitable races to dutch in.

    I'll list all races/qualifiers irrespective if there is an obvious 'no bet' such as an odds-on Fav., or several unraced horses etc., etc. There are various alternatives to dutching these, equal stakes, the Danger staking, betting the highest rated, etc., but overall, dutching is best.

    Flat turf is best, June to September is best period, AW is decent but there are various racecourses to avoid betting at but more of this later.

    Today's bet:

    2.45 S'well. -

    Ceyhan (90) @ 4.5
    Hot Natured (89) @ 5.9
     
  2. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Hi @TonCon , welcome to the forum and thanks for sharing your approach with us.
     
    SIG likes this.
  3. OnTheNod

    OnTheNod Colt

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    Welcome to the forum @TonCon i hope you enjoy your stay here.
     
    SIG likes this.
  4. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Welcome & good luck!
     
    SIG likes this.
  5. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Thank you all for your good wishes.

    The market yesterday showed us the way. Both selections drifted while the Fav was heavily backed throughout the day and won well.
    Todays:

    1.00 Wolv.

    Hydroxide (90) - @ 3.1
    Calypso Jo (88) - @ 8.4

    2.35 Red.

    Carigrad (99) - @4.1
    Ninepin Bowler (97) - @ 5.4

    3.10 Red.

    Everything For You (97) - @4.00
    Merlin (93) - @ 4.2
     
    doomster likes this.
  6. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    The Wolverhampton race yesterday was one of the hottest Maidens held there this year and was definitely not a betting opportunity. Got the winners of the other two races though so not too bad.
    Today's :

    3.20 S'well.

    Passcode (89) @ 2.06
    Eddiebet (87) @ 3.25

    4.35 New'm (NB. Grade 1 Racecourse - all of which have patchy overall records historically. Would not normally consider a bet here)

    Top Mission (96) @ 2.86
    Firefright (94) @ 3.6
     
    doomster likes this.
  7. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    The New'm race ended up true to form ie. dead dodgy, but we got the winner at S'well.
    Today's :

    3.25 Bev.

    Amlad (89) @ 2.79
    Chippenham (87) @ 5.1

    4.45 New'm (For info. only - no bet)

    First Dance (94) @ 6.00
    Glittering Jewel (90) @ 5.2

    6.45 Wolv.

    Ejaaby (88) @ 2.66
    El Cap (88) @ 3.5
     
  8. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    TonCon likes this.
  9. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    As usual the New'm race was a loser but the other two won. The ratings at the Maidens at New'm today are both joint rated in first and second, ie. four bets in each race, so are not shown.
    Today :

    5.35 Rip.

    Fujaria Bridge @ 2.48
    Lamloon @ 5.2

    7.50 Ling

    Agathonia @ 3.7
    Tristram @ 5.3
     
  10. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Two winners yesterday. Ignoring Newbury today as historically it has a worse record than even Newmarket.
    Today :

    7.30 Bath

    International Law @ 2.24
    Fiendish @ 5.00
     
  11. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    Have you found over time that the tendency to produce horses ready to race, rather than run them fit as in the old days has affected results, also how is it affected by seasonal patterns, bringing better horses out later?
     
  12. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Good results so far @TonCon !

    How's the P&L looking?
     
  13. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Been doing this seriously on a daily basis for around the last 11 years or so. What I've found over that time is :

    Grade 1 courses are overall losers (but especially New'm & New'b) The bigger/better trainers race their better horses at the better tracks for the better prizemoney and the majority are all trying - especially so if the owner is present. This is not what I want. You can't second guess any FTO'ers at these courses and it's just not worth the risk. This is especially true later in the season when the better horses come out to play, fit and raring to go. In fact, I know a guy who reckons he makes money betting all horses whose first run was in a Newmarket Maiden the next twice out.

    As far as seasonal patterns are concerned, late-June to mid-September each year seems to be the 'golden era' - large LSP by betting both horses irrespective ie. not dutching, during this period in 8 of the 11 years with the best ever showing 212 points LSP in 2014 but that was silly. However, no losses at all recorded during this period of the season.

    2 yo Maidens are not as dodgy to bet in as you may think - the betting market is key though.

    AW racing is OK out of the Flat season but surprisingly good during the season. The opposite of what I'd expect.

    I never, ever bet/dutch a horse that's odds-on. In fact I lay (admittedly for small money) every maiden o/o Fav. especially on the AW.

    Hope this helps.
     
    Jack Dawkins likes this.
  14. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    I don't post a P&L as it's all based on winning 1 point per day, I stop betting as soon as I've hit my daily profit of 1 point.
     
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  15. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    I noticed today that my posts are being moderated before being eventually posted. Can I ask why this is and is it just mjne or is eveyone's post being moderated ?
     
  16. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Hi @TonCon , it's nothing personal, it's just that once a forum gets a certain number of members it tends to attract some people that have agendas of their own outside our interests, so we have decided to install a series of 'hurdles' for potential members to negotiate before we accept them.
    I know you have already been subjected to some security checks , and I apologise for that inconvenience, but hopefully once you've been with us for a while you will appreciate what we're doing and why we need to do it.
     
    Chesham likes this.
  17. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Your train set so it's only right you get to say who plays with it, fair enough and no arguement here. No need to apologise but thank you for your explaination and kindness in doing so.
     
    dave58 likes this.
  18. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Ignoring the New'b maidens while the one at Thirsk has joint top/second ratings so no bet there. There's an odds-on fav in the 8.15 Wolv so that's been ignored as well. Historically Saturdays are always the worst day for maidens betting so just the one bet today.

    22/4/17

    6.30 Nott

    Crystal Ocean @ 2.64
    Okool @ 3.35
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  19. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Dodged the bullet by ignoring Newbury with the three maiden races there returning winners at 25/1, 25/1 and 33/1.

    Bit miffed that the 7/4 SP of the winner in the 6.30 was better than this morning's BF price. Doesn't happen very often but it still hurts when it does.
     
  20. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Well done on finding the winner and the forecast @TonCon
     
  21. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Cheers Tom.
    Ratings for the 5.35 Ling have 3 x joint top rated so omitted.

    Today :

    4.10 Pont

    Star Catch @ 2.42
    Hitchcock @ 4.5

    4.20 Kemp

    Thafeera @ 2.22
    First Moon @ 13.5

    5.45 Wind

    Next Challenge @ 3.85
    Ply @ 5.4
     
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  22. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Bad day at the office yesterday with all three down. Only two qualifying races today or possibly just the one should the fav. in the 7.40 actually go off at odds-on.

    4.50 Bri

    Declaration of Love @ 2.96
    Diamond Pursuit ' 3.95

    7.40 Wolv

    Pondering @ 1.92
    Stepney @ 2.54
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
  23. doomster

    doomster Mare

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    Well done @TonCon today :handgestures-thumbup:

    Do you have any pre set minimum returns for the dutch bets ?

    The 7.40 probably pays around 1/12, so just thinking about the level of strike rate required.

    I wanted Pondering to lose , as Stepney had the benefit of a recent run and there was a question mark over Pondering on the surface as his sire is 0/25, but plenty of them were at big odds. I thought Morris was dreadful on Stepney even though he got the win.
     
  24. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Many thanks doomster.

    I bet to win 1 point every day (aim is 300 pa) stopping when I win the point irrespective of any other races to come that same day. As my ratings are (theoretically, anyway) sound, I can afford to pick and choose my betting races dependent on the prices available and not the form. I'm only listing ALL qualifying bets here for info. - I definitely do not bet them all, hence no P/L table on the thread.

    When I have a losing day (like yesterday) the betting loss incurred plus the 1 point lost profit is carried over to the next day - which does add up pretty quickly. The first race today had reasonable prices so was a bet. Had it lost there is no way I would have bet in the 7.40 at those prices, I would have just carried over the loss to Day 3, wait for a suitable race/decent prices and continue betting until I'd recouped my losses plus made my point-per-day profit.

    Not to everyone's taste I know but being selective (by race/price) it's very manageable with a decent sized bank. I've never gone more than five losing races in all the years I've been doing it.

    Agree with your comments on Stepney's jockey...even though I've never sat on a horse in my life !!
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
  25. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Today :

    2.55 Catt

    Aimez La Vie @ 3.25
    Castle Hill Cassie @ 7.2

    5.20 Ling

    Tadween @4.2
    Milburn Jack @ 5.4

    6.25 Ling

    Regicide @ 4.7
    Golden Wolf @ 3.6
     
  26. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Today :

    5.00 Bev

    Rinaria @ 2.9
    Glorvina @ 6.0
     
  27. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Today :

    3.20 Don

    Desert Rain @ 2.54
    Serenada @ 6.8

    4.35 Sand

    Neshmeya @ 3.25
    Serenada @ 4.3
     
  28. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Wrongly entered the second fav's name in the 3.20 yesterday, it should have been...Harbour Grey. Any doubters then please check the BF prices for the runners at 10.30 am yesterday.

    Today :

    3.15 Hay

    Maghoor @ 2.54
    Bristol Missile @ 3.8

    3.45 Hay

    Nancy Hart @ 3.9
    Western Safari @ 3.9

    5.10 Leic

    Oasis Charm @ 3.2
    Mutarahy @ 3.5

    6.00 Don

    Guilded Reflection @ 3.75
    Firefright @ 3.85

    7.20 Wolv

    Cape Peninsular @ 5.3
    Migyaas @ 3.4
     
  29. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Today :

    2.00 Salis

    Sharp Defence @ 2.18
    Eula Varner @ 4.7

    2.45 Thirsk

    Angels Acclaim @ 5.8
    Alfonso Manana @ 6.6

    4.00 Salis

    Stone the Crows @ 2.2
    Nadaitak @ 4.3

    5.15 Thirsk

    Materialist @ 2.00
    Born to Bloom @ 7.4
     
  30. TonCon

    TonCon Foal

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    Been running this for a fortnight now but seems to be very little interest in it which is fair enough. It is a very much a one-trick-pony way of betting and progressive betting is certainly not to everyone's taste so I'm wrapping up this thread from today.
     

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