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Early days

Discussion in 'Ratings & Utilities' started by davejb, Jul 1, 2017.

  1. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Daily upload.
    Yesterday: flat hcap 2/7 at 12.0 and 7.93 filtered to 2/3 - went out with a bang!
    non hcaps 1/8 at 7.2 filtered 0/0
    NH hcaps 4/16 at 6.99 3.69 5.42 7.0 filtered 2/9 at 6.99 and 3.69
    non hcaps 1/12 at 3.05 filtered 0/1

    Not too bad really, filtering or not both give reasonable returns. I do hope this continues!
    Dave
     

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  2. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Just as for the flat in early April, the NH ratings are simply not there for quite a lot of runners who have started to reappear - looking at the 'selections_xxnov.txt' lately most of the races have the ! showing that less than 80% of runners have been rated in that race, so although they've not been doing too badly lately overall the NH side has been much more iffy than the flat... obviously when looking at the horses that ARE rated you must use a bit of common sense, for example on Saturday I (along with everyone else) figured Modus was highly unlikely to lose to Valhalla, and Might Bite on Sunday was another horse that was quite likely to win! That doesn't mean that favourites on their returns aren't going to get turned over now and then, but when tomorrow's 'selections' ALL have a significant number of unrated runners don't be amazed if the top rated turns out to be 6th at 10/1 when the results come in.

    Hopefully there'll still be a few winners, I know today's 'selections' showed a profit with 3/9 winning, as usual the trick is to figure out which ones to back from the list. (After all, some days there's not too many winners on that list).

    Yesterday - as good an example as any - no flat results of course, over the jumps a single handicap winner at 4.1 from 8 runners, filtered to 1/5 and 0/10 filtered to 0/2 for the non handicaps... the 'selections' file gave 2 non hcaps that placed 2nd and 3rd, in the handicaps there were 2 non runners and 5 runners, with just the one winner and the rest unplaced.

    Dave
     

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  3. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Sorry folks,
    I seem to have caught one of those bugs, I'm really not up to doing the ratings. I'll get back to work as soon as I can, guessing it'll be Thursday or so.... meanwhile back to the bedroom....
    Dave
     
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  4. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb hope your feeling better soon Dave , there are a lot of weird strains of bugs and viruses around right now , my daughter was floored for over a week with some dry flu-like virus along with severe stomach ache , or it could just be our great Scottish weather;)
     
  5. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Ooof,
    well I'm just about alive I think, I'm weak as a kitten and have the stamina of a bit of damp lettuce, but I managed to get some ratings done and the selections - no time for cards today but I'll have some for tomorrow later.

    @ARAZI91 Cheers, yes one of those bugs we get up here, coughing and a fever basically, plus an amazing 'lose 7lb in 3 days by eating nothing' diet - I'm near Kinloss in Moray by the way.
    Dave
     

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  6. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb - hope your better soon mate , lovely area BTW - i'm more "industrialised" nearer Glasgow.
     
  7. TheBluesBrother

    TheBluesBrother Gelding

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    My ex brother in law Mark Francome (cousin of John) was stationed at RAF Kinloss, I remember my sister kept on complaining how cold it was up there,
    anyway nice to see that you are recovering.

    Mike.
     
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  8. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    @ARAZI91 and @TheBluesBrother
    Cheers - teaching was my second career, I was an NCO in the RAF first and spent almost the whole of my 23 years at RAF Kinloss, about half on ground jobs and the rest on Nimrods... when I got here in late 1979 it seemed even colder. Still not a thriving hub of activity, which is why there'll be a move south sometime next year if all goes to plan. I was in Glasgow last week for a couple of days, took the better half to that Andy Murray thing at the SSE Hydro (or whatever it's called)... well I put her on the train to it and collected her from another train at the end of it, whilst relaxing in the hotel during it....tennis bores me rigid.

    Anyhow, tomorrow's stuff now done, a bit slower than usual admittedly due to the low energy, but I got there in the end.

    I managed to download the cards and results for the missing days, staggering to the keyboard for 5 mins a day to download them - I processed them last night to see how things would have gone normally and the NH results have been a bit bland, a few winners but nothing great... take yesterday for example, NH handicaps they got 5 winners out of 12, but they were at 1.17 3.45 1.7 1.34 and 3.4, 2/4 filtered gave 4 pts out and 4.57 back.... On the other hand the all weather results haven't been too awful, very few races of course but one or two winners at decent odds each day there were races on, and the market filter did it's job quite well. Hopefully the NH ratings will start to deliver a bit better soon, thanks to the difficulty that seems to exist in supplying accurate data from NH racing - you can have two sources that are 10 seconds apart on the race timing quite frequently - it can take a significant amount of time to correct things before processing. I think that the people pushing the times out, ie those at the racecourse who are passing their timings to the press etc., should be taking a lot more care to get it right.... you can hand time a race by watching a video replay and get to within a second or two of an acceptable version of the race time, given the way NH races sort of saunter up and play 'after you Claude' at the start there really ISN'T an 'accurate' time to be had anyway, but I defy anyone to be 10 seconds adrift unless they weren't paying attention.

    Rant over... I just wish I didn't have to keep correcting race times, by the time you've done that and all the other odds and sods you almost can't be bothered to look at the racing...

    Dave
     

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  9. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Bit late, sorry...
    results for yesterday flat hcaps 0/13 filtered 0/8 a total blank, nada
    non handicaps 4/9 at 1.92 3.82 1.22 1.4 filtered to 2/2 at 1.22 and 1.4
    NH hcaps 1/7 at 8.2 filtered to 1/3
    non hcaps 1/4 at 4.5 filtered to 0/0
    Again a bit bland, would have looked better without the AW handicaps mind. I ought to have some spare time for my next move soon, and I've been thinking about whether I can do something more on the AW tracks, I am considering an AW only version sort of to run alongside the existing ratings (really just rearranging common data to provide a different view) to see if there's advantage to be had from the fact that the AW tracks don't perhaps vary so much day to day.... obviously I don't mean they're identical tracks, or that they always run 0.2s fast or whatever, but there are I think advantages to be gained from being able to concentrate on trainers, jockeys, horses when they are restricted to a handful of tracks. We'll see....

    Much as I'll be cheering Elgin on tomorrow, I doubt the ground will suit him very well - what a shame Cheltenham has gone from good to bog over the 3 days....it gave us some brave runs today, but I don't think we got to see the best that might have been seen on better going.

    Dave
     

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  10. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Tomorrow attached....
    Well, Elgin won the Greatwood! I have to say that whilst I enjoyed the win (as did my wife, very much) it was completely overshadowed by the loss of London Prize, a horse I was very much a fan of. I've lost a couple of favourites this year, and it must be 100 times worse for those connected.

    Yesterday was another ticking along sort of day - flat hcaps 0/4 (0/2 filtered)
    non handicaps 3/12 at 1.34 14.35 and 5.94 filtered 1/2 at 1.34
    NH hcaps 1/12 at 11.0 filtered 1/8 at 11.0
    non hcaps 0/12 filtered 0/2

    So, I'm not sure the market filter is helping much in non handicaps, the implication is that perhaps instead of only passing the first in the betting forecast then the top x% might be a better idea, we'll see.
    Ideas for the AW format card progresses slowly, I've not finalised what I want there, and I want to add more trainer/jockey form - we'll see how it all goes. I'm not (currently) planning to alter how the ratings are calculated etc (although I will look more at that later) but I am wondering if I can add some pace information. It'll be a while developing I expect.

    Anyone any idea what went on in the 3.55 at Punchestown yesterday? According to the Irish results Tagliatelle carried 12 stone around in a time that was quite significantly faster than you'd expect - I can only presume the race was over well short of the published distance or the timing was well out, as it has taken a significant adjustment from the published figures to attain what still seems a fairly generous rating... the original rating came out at 185. Now this is rather higher than Tagliatelle has previously managed, it is also higher than Secretariat would have managed. The preceding race was over 1f further and took some 42 seconds longer, despite carrying 10lb less. Answers on a postcard to 'Have you measured your racecourse this century co ltd, c/o Punchestown Racecourse'. I know Paddy Power adverts have that horse with rockets fitted in them, but I don't think they're actually allowed during the race.

    Dave
     

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  11. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb

    What standard time are you using for this distance at Punchestown?This was a one-off challenge race where the winner received the sum of 69 Euros!!
    Punchestown has a few different configurations including an inner track.
     
  12. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb i see that 3.55 Punchestown was over 15f . There was a similar type challenge race on 19th Oct over 14f - winning time was 216.70 on yielding to soft.The winner received £8 according to HRB
     
  13. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb I have timed that race twice now Dave using Kinovea , twice i make the time to be 223.88. I started the timer when the lead horse starts running. A very slow pace up till just under the 100 sec mark - you can see plenty fighting for their heads , pulling and unsettled , then there is an injection of pace (but not much)
    see attached Punch 3.55.PNG
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017 at 10:40 PM
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  14. davejb

    davejb Filly

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    Hi,
    it's a non standard race distance for Punchestown (which, admittedly, seems the rule rather than the exception there) so I initially based this on a 2m standard time of 215s, which I revised downward by 14.7s for the furlong reduction in distance, so 200.3s. The reported racetime was 219.40s, making the race apprx 19s slow although the irish racing results site I checked gave it as 9s slow. All the other races on the card came in at least 10s slower, mostly 20s or so, compared to standard. It seemed highly unlikely, given the quality of the runners, that they'd leave the rest of the card trailing in their wakes despite humping 12st. I know it was a bit of a silly race, of course - I was very tempted just to erase it frankly - but every other race took at least 1.7s or so per furlong above average to complete, and this one was reporting something more like 1s (or, using that 9s comparator, only 0.5s per furlong).
    It didn't add up!

    There was another race like that yesterday, the 1250 at Uttoxeter - BHA and Racing Post have it 4s or so slower than Timeform, who has the correct time in my view. The starter sets them off and they spend 3 or 4 seconds just standing there waiting for someone to take the lead, nobody wants to be in front, I think they only started running when they realised how embarrassing it was starting to look. The BHA/RP time (4m 4.10s) appears to be from the time the starter actually tries to start the race, while Timeform's version (3m 59.60s) is obviously from when they actually start moving. it illustrates quite well the difference between NH and flat, and why the 'accuracy' of racetimes for NH is more of a case of a good approximation ... you can't imagine the stalls opening at Ascot and everyone sitting there for a few seconds before one or two canter gently out, can you!

    Dave
     
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  15. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb - even that reported time (219.40) is wrong Dave. I would have adjusted the 2m standard the same way - treat it like a Rail movement/added /subtracted distance. BTW Kinovea is ideal software for checking times. But this is one of the main reasons why i moved away from times - and fair play again to yourself and @TheBluesBrother for the work you have to put in. Theory says that Times should be the utmost decisive factor in Racehorse competition and that may be true in the States and other countries but the data sources are all over the shop in European racing and pace/jockeyship plays too much of a part in corrupting final times. Yes the better horses record better times , but trying to put a figure on a comparative scale is a full time job. In the end a rating system which predicts around 21% winners top rated (this is what your best time rating methods play out at) was just not worth the input for me. Another thing Dave - re; Punchestown - Dont know if you noticed - on ATR site today they were advertising the 2m Hurdle/NHF races as 2m 40 y , where yesterday they were just 2m - i know Punchestown has an inner track but it can get very confusing - sometimes the only option is to phone the track and then you dont always get the full story.
    15 25   Punchestown   Saturday 18th November 2017   At The Races.jpg 15 55   Punchestown   Sunday 19th November 2017   At The Races.jpg
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2017 at 12:41 AM
  16. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @davejb - some big owners /trainers in that "challenge" race at Punchestown on Saturday running for something like 60 Euros. The other one in October was the same.
     
  17. TheBluesBrother

    TheBluesBrother Gelding

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    I am surprised that you are asking this question, have you not learned anything about official Irish race distances, you take them with a big pinch of salt.

    With Tagliatelle race, when I looked this morning the RP have removed the race from the results, which about sums up this race, personally I just ignored it.

    This race must have also got under @ARAZI91 skin, 5 posts about the same race.

    Punchestown.png

    Mike.
     
  18. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Foal

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    @TheBluesBrother - Death , Famine & Income Taxes get "under my skin" Mike , but never something as trivial as a Racecourse Time. The Racing Post may have chosen to ignore that race but sites like AtTheRaces and Irishracing.com did not. But please forgive me , Dave asked a question concerning a race and i had the audacity to answer and try and help him. I did not know there was a maximum post count on a thread and that you logged this information.;)
     
  19. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Timeform do not include the race in their data base @TheBluesBrother looks like they consider it a non event in terms of form data
     
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  20. TheBluesBrother

    TheBluesBrother Gelding

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    @ARAZI91

    When dealing with the majority of Irish Jump meetings you have to try an achieve a best fit scenario, when it comes to speed figure compilation,
    You may have noticed that yesterdays 2m(H) races were 2m40yds, is this the actual race distance for the outer course or did they move start/rails?
    Most days I am always updating the standard times, and yesterday was no exception, you have to try and assess, do the figures look right.

    Punchestown2.png

    Mike.
     

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    Last edited: Nov 20, 2017 at 8:31 AM
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