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Early days

I have Spare Parts +15, I also have the next three from that race all on +12... which is something I need to take a look at as several times now I've had 3 or 4 from a single race popping up.... could be some silly bug promoting them, so I'll check to make sure it's legit.

Tomorrow I have three -
Ling 1320 Dark Alliance - running off the same mark and much the same look to the race so in with a chance I think.
Ling 1550 Jorvik Prince - has gone up 5lb, looking to get the 4 timer in an apprentice handicap, I like the horse but I'm dubious.
Ncl 1915 Tommy G - he's going over 7f having set his 'well in' speed rating over 5f, so I don't like the setup.

Tomorrow attached - when I get a few minutes I'm going to tidy the odd file up a bit.... when....

Yesterday: AW hcap 2/6 (2/4) 7.8 7.4
non hcap 0/3 (0/1)
NH hcap 1/4 (1/2) 7.2
non hcap 0/3 (0/1)

Well the filter worked again, I'm a bit perplexed - I've usually found handicaps harder than non handicaps to work out, but this is another day when the handicaps did quite well - 6 out 15 back is quite decent, if only it happened every day! Even the jumps handicaps did okay, 4 out (or 23, if using the filter) and 7 back.

Ho hum, nobody said it was easy....
The AW stuff is up to of course, I've not had much free time today to squint at racecards so that's as in depth as it's going to get tonight.


Tomorrow attached,
I've tidied the selections list up a bit, all those symbols were adding information without, in my view, really adding a great deal to the problem solving side of things - I'm not saying any of the removed 'flags' weren't serving a purpose, but I don't think any of them were offering a massive amount of help... so decluttering occurred. The info on win rates for that type of race at each track is still there, I may shift that to a separate track info header section I'm considering. Also still there, in brackets after the chosen runner's name, is how much it is top rated by compared to the second - I'd love to claim that backing all those rated 20 pts clear was the route to riches but sadly it appears not to be so! The removed information is generally available elsewhere - notably in the full ratings, where it's pretty clear that if you can only see two horses rated and the race is stated to have 12 runners then you probably don't have much info to go on, also the PR is still listed there.

More changes will follow, in time.

Yesterday: AW hcap 2/11 (1/7) Odds: 4.5 3.39 - market missed the 4.5
AW Non - Handicaps 1/2 (0/0) Odds: 2.57
NH Handicaps 3/11 (3/8) Odds: 2.5 14.0 5.7
NH Non - Hcap 2/7 (0/1) Odds: 9.0 1.7

So raw ratings gave us 8 wins from 31 runners and returned 43.36 filtered gave us 4 wins from 16 runners and returned 25.59, of course those numbers are BFSP so are almost certainly pretty generous unless you are betting quite small amounts actually on the exchange.

Yesterday's 'well in' notes worked out okay for once, Dark Alliance won at 5/4, Jorvik Prince was a neck second at 5/1 running a better race than I expected to be truthful, and Tommy G was run out of it from the furlong pole to come 4th at 13/2.... if his mark stays low enough then a run over 5f again might be good.

Tomorrow there are another 3 - consistent! They're all at Wolverhampton in the evening...

First up is Pantomime in the 6.45, 13 runner class 6 handicap over 16.5f.He's a couple of pounds better off this time which is nice, jockey suits, a run like his last at Newcastle could see him win this one - chances are the odds will be decent for an EW shot.

Next is Pushkin Museum (7.15) class 5 6f handicap, drawn 1 of 13. Jockey is fine, and although going up 4lb for that last win he could get another this time round.

Finally Pulsating (7.45) Looking to this class 5 handicap over 6f for his hat trick - unfortunately there is one fly in the ointment, he's gone up 11 lbs in the handicap and although he could still have half a stone in hand, and everything else looks okay, I'm not sure that the rise in weight (okay, mass, I'm a physicist remember) AND the bump up in class don't make a difficult combo to beat. Forecast to be favourite by my datafeed I think I'd want decent odds, although I wouldn't be amazed to see the hat trick come off.

Okay, that's it - time for a cuppa.



Here we go again, to finish another week off...
The selections file has been tidied up a bit as I said, the up to date info on the win rates/runners/win% of top rated selections is now shown at the page top, one line per course, for non hcaps, then hcaps, then all combined. It's very straightforward I think - of course a low percentage could mean that the ratings are rubbish at course X, or it could imply that swings and roundabouts should apply to give a run of winners to even the stats up... I'm pondering this as I compare the rates for Southwell (non hcaps 8 wins from 37 = 22%, hcaps 18 from 82 = 22%, combined figures 26/119 = 22% - which is pretty consistent) with Fairyhouse NH (non hcaps 8 wins from 28 runners, 29%, handicaps zero winners from 17 = 0%, combined 8 out of 49 = 18%) - I have no idea why Fairyhouse should do pretty well for non handicaps but be atrocious for the handicaps!

Anyhow, them's the breaks.

Yesterday - AW hcap 2/14 6.03 25.0 (nice one) filtered 1/8 6.03
non hcap 0/5 (0/1)
NH hcap 1/7 (1/5) 4.7
non hcap 1/4 (0/1) 33.15 - another nice one. I'd rather have 4 winners at 7/1 than a single winner at 33/1, it tends to make the losing runs less dramatic, but if we're going to have a win rate like 1/7 or 1/10 then big odds do tend to help a bit.

The three 'well in' selections from yesterday - I haven't had a chance to look yet, hang on - hmm, first pair came 5th and Pulsating trotted around at the back before getting going to finish well and take 3rd. Oh well.

I hesitate to mention that there are another trio - why they're coming up in threes I don't know -
Rosina (2.25 Sthl) Has gone up 4lb since winning lto, should still have a lot in hand it says here, basically it all looks promising provided she can handle the sand here and manages to get the late run without problems.

Declamation (3.25) Has won two in quick succession since moving stables, could make it a hat trick - against it happening is a big rise in the handicap of 12lb and the extra furlong of this race compared to the last two. He 'requalified' for the list with his second win, and based on that he still has a good bit in hand, but I think time is running out.

Mr Coco Bean (3.55) Up 5lb for his last win over C+D he should still have a bit to spare, another who will probably turn up late in the game.

All three have jockeys aboard who have ridden then to win lately, the only one not doing pretty much the same as lto is Declamation, going over an extra furlong. All three are top rated on the speed ratings for tomorrow, and will probably start towards or at the head of the market.



I doubt you missed this one Mike, but just in case -
Timeform for Punchestown 2.10 was 4 mins 38.1, R Post 4mins 5.0s - only 33s difference! Goodness knows who TF have doing their timing for them, but the RP figure (based on watching the video) was the correct one. It's not uncommon to have a couple of seconds difference, I base my hand timing on when the leader goes past the starter (this can be several seconds after the commentator calls the start based on the flag dropping while the field are actually still 50yds short of the start) so I try to hand time anything more than 2.0s adrift.... I figure that my hand timing is no better than that for accuracy on a bad day.

The Clonmel race where it was so foggy the starter didn't notice one had gone past earlier was fun - no time from anyone for that, and watching the replay doesn't help as the camera crew missed the start quite comprehensively.... makes doing ratings difficult, doesn't it?

Okay, same as usual.
Yesterday - AW 2/13 (2/10) 14.67 3.14
non hcap 1/3 (0/1) 1.76
NH Hcap 3/15 (3/10) 5.64 6.16 4.05
non hcap 4/11 (2/4) 1.71 2.81 (5.27 1.59)

- read as 4 out of 11 winners, odds 1.71 2.81 5.27 1.59 - filtering gave 2 wins from 4, missing the bracketted 5.27 and 1.59 winners.

That'a a small profit for raw ratings, and a decent profit for the filtered approach.

The three 'well in' jobs sank with hardly a trace, the race reports show that all three did pretty much exactly what wasn't wanted (but was at the back of your mind as a worry :) ) - Rosina was outpaced early and tried to make up for it at the end, Declamation looks to have run out of puff over that final furlong, to be honest he wouldn't have won over a furlong less either, and Mr Coco Beans tried to come late and got nowhere.... after being quite well backed as the odds on favourite.

For what it's worth Fareeq (Wolv 7.40) is up for tomorrow, as usual with a good bit in hand from the last run - time for a watching brief I think!

A quiet day for a change, barring having to jump out of bed to load 3 dozen hay bales onto somebody's horsebox - my wife has decided that her two remaining ponies can't possibly eat the knocking 200 bales of hay she still has stored from autumn and has been selling it over the winter. One chap wanted 300.... all I wanted was to stay in bed....



Here's tomorrow's stuff.
Yesterday - I've amended my daily report program to do all the work for me... here we go with a cut and paste results sheet....

Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Returns: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Returns:0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Returns:0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Returns:0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 19.06 8.4 (Returns: 27.46)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 8.4 (Returns: 8.4)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 1.44 2.18 2.06 1.84 (Returns: 7.52)
Mkt filter 4/4 Odds: 1.44 2.18 2.06 1.84 (Returns: 7.52)

- I got fed up reaching for the calculator to find out what the returns were like so I reprogrammed things a bit, it's easier to let the PC do the adding up :D

Okay, as can be seen, the AW was absolutely useless, 7 losers - given that the win rate for ratings at Southwell is averaging out at 22% I'd have expected one winner, but there it is. Unfiltered that's 20 pts out and 35 back pretty much, filtered it's 14 out and 16 back approx.

Tomorrow there's one 'well in' - Olaudan in the 43.5 at Kempton, ran to a mark of 60 last time out but is rated at 52 - personally I think Mercers is more likely to win, but according to the forecast SP I'm wrong....today's runner Fareeq came 6th.

Only a couple of winners today, one at each meeting so breaking slightly better than even on raw ratings again (one was 11/2 the other 9/1), but the filter didn't work at all.



Tomorrow there's one 'well in' - Olaudan in the 43.5 at Kempton, ran to a mark of 60 last time out but is rated at 52 - personally I think Mercers is more likely to win, but according to the forecast SP I'm wrong....today's runner Fareeq came 6th.
Well it just goes to show, even a blind idiot has to hit the bull once in every decade or two.... Olaudan came 3rd, evens favourite, Mercers won by a head and a neck at 10/1. I tell you tipping services have been started on less evidence than this..... :D

Back to reality then, todays stuff as ever - see if you can spot the cosmetic changes I'm gradually adding....

Yesterday looked like this:-
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/4 Odds: 7.8 8.51 (Return: 16.31)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 12.0 (Return: 12.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

- I'm looking at ways to get the actual SP's in here, I have a results scraper etc for the RP that I could use to grab the SP, it's just a matter of swapping it into the results file I download to work on, because the BFSP is a bit misleading I'm sure everyone would agree, it makes the view altogether rosier on the long shots for a start. It won't be fixed instantly, but fairly soon I would hope.

Tomorrow's 'well ins' are as follows - I'll do more info on them as I get spare time, but we seem to have a lot on the go lately and even fairly simple hospital follow ups seem to eat hours and hours - we had a 20 minute quick exam and chat with the wife up on the mechanics ramps down quikfit (well, in the middle of a fairly old and not very comfy hospital) and it took us from 10 am to just after 5pm to complete the round trip... that just eats into my racing prep time I'm afraid and it's not an uncommon experience lately.

Anyhow, here's the 'well in' list for tomorrow - you can pull more info out of the AWcard info etc easily enough to get a better fix on it all:

1210 Ling Toriano - gone up 4lb following last (winning) run at Lingfield, should therefore still have about 10lb to play with.
2.50 Ling Lugarno Palace drops 3lb from lto (4th at Newcastle) leaving 14lb to play with in theory.... form figures don't excite.
3.20 Ling - Two in this one, Spare Parts has won three in succession and went up a fairly hefty 13lb for the last one, which is almost all they had spare. Soaring Spirits has gone up 2lb for a very narrow defeat last time out, could go okay with about 8lb in hand.
Another pair in the 4.00 at Newcastle:
Rubenesque is a pound better off for a 4th lto, on paper 13lb to the good, while
Thankyou Very Much remains on the mark that allowed them to post a +13lb speed figure last time out when coming 2nd.

These are all worth a quick check, Spare parts would be doing very well to keep winning having been fairly hammered after the last win, but the rest might do okay if the ducks line up alright. I haven't double checked distances, I've rather glanced at Trainer and Jockey form, and so forth so all need further checking.