simon boardman
Mare
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-46 record
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-46 record
Yep , it certainly is a complicated process and very easy to become blinkered - i think the placed horses in such a competitive series of races are meaningful , especially with the above average field sizes of 22-23 runners per race. It is much harder to be placed at the festival than a normal Cheltenham handicap , which in itself is still harder than an average handicap overall. There are better ways to measure these small samples , than just wins and win %. On that list of trainers there is Nick Gifford who has had 20 runners in Festival hcaps with no wins BUT - 12 of those runners have finished in the top half of the field in an avg FS of 23, and with finishes like - 3/20 , 4/24, 6/26, 3/20 , 3/28 , 2/28, 5/20, 3/19 you have to say his runners are competitive at the least. Nick Williams runners are similar. With such open markets , big fields and place concessions i just think if you can winkle out some nuggets like this - it can give you more options.ARAZI91 , after reading those 2 articles you realise how complicated the whole business of meaningful Stats and Trends really are. i agree with the idea of inc. placed horses but is this any use if a horse finishes 3rd but is beaten many lengths ? i like the type of stats above ie 0- 46 .
Overall , i will be concentrating on the Top Trainers , this is their Pinnacle of the year , they are the best trainers for a reason and they generally have the best horses.
simon boardman - BTW I agree here re - Top TrainersARAZI91 , after reading those 2 articles you realise how complicated the whole business of meaningful Stats and Trends really are. i agree with the idea of inc. placed horses but is this any use if a horse finishes 3rd but is beaten many lengths ? i like the type of stats above ie 0- 46 .
Overall , i will be concentrating on the Top Trainers , this is their Pinnacle of the year , they are the best trainers for a reason and they generally have the best horses.
The handicaps at Cheltenham can be very tricky but always good to get your teeth into. I am a big fan of Paul Nicholls and normally look closely at his runners in handicaps I was surprised though to see hes record when he gets a runner in the lower half of the weights.
His overall record in all handicaps is as follows:
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If we then look at his runners in the bottom half I have chosen the 11th or worse position in HRB and his runners then become profitable
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All 8 of those winners were ridden by a pro jockey so if we remove any ridden by claimers then the results become decent
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Seems he is good at getting his runners into the lower part of the handicap and I will certainly be looking closely at any of his runners that meet the above criteria. Also worth a mention is that 3 out of 4 of his winners wore blinkers