Discussion in 'Ratings & Utilities' started by Donny, Jun 26, 2017.
Ratings v Market. Using Hrb odds tracker you will have an overround.
BF EX would be a better method buts that means more work for me.
2 contenders in this race highlighted in yellow.
Sorry not highlighted.
Arab Moon and Banish.
Arab Moon wins.
Dominating 2nd in the last at kempton.
At least i know my ratings are in the right Ball park.
I thought i would look at using my ratings to narrow a field down in Hcps and then look at the form of the contenders.
Ive looked at the 7.20 at Dundalk 3y old+ Hcp 7f.
The first Table is the test results for IRE/AW the second Table is for the race .
You can see that the results are narrowed to the top 3/4 runners.
The fav Eleuthera is top rated but has not won at this course or weight.
The 3rd fav ( BF EX) @ 6.2 win and 2.14 plc is Secret Path my second rated and a course and distance winner and only 2 lbs up is my selection Win and plc.
Bien Chase wins.
Not had a great day.
my ratings for york tomorrow,
These may or may not be of use. 2 Races are missing my crap IT skills (again)
My ratings and handicap rank for the 3.20 at catt.
Magical effect is well clear on both, the BF EX price is 4.1 at the moment.
Canadian Royal and See you mush seem to be contenders as per rank v Market.
All a bit rushed so late post.
See you mush is also a contender on @Chesham Monster speed.
See you mush 2nd.
Going to have a few days off.
Don't just rely on Ratings use other data and other strategies to make a profit
My Three Selections today
Thanks for the reply,
Horse racing ! Harder than the Times crossword. ( i cant do that either )
I can see from the above your positive A/E using HRB.
I will use Ratings/Rankings as a guide to narrow the field and then Dig deeper using HRB.
Its a Chicken and egg situation -without the ratings you have had nothing to thing to reason - without the reason your have nothing to rate. So without knowing which races to target / rate we have no reason to rate .
For me that's where it must start - race - rate - reason . Difficult but we have to know what races offer a chance of successful rating and reasoning to give a worthwhile return. The return may just be intellectual not financial .
My top 2 are Taper Tantrum 252, Piedita 242.
Piedita has a current price of Evens.
HRB gives me this.
She has bags of stamina in her pedigree and will be racing off BHA 80 from Saturday and not able to race in 0-75 Handicaps. 2 lb well in tomorrow
Newcastle 9.15pm Hcp.
Groundworker to win C,D and weight should be no problem 5/1 at present.
Groundworker Wins @ 5/1
Trainer Hot at present.
Hi All ,
Kemp 19.45 3yo Hcp.
I will stick my neck out and go with Munstead Star @ 11/4 with top rated Master Archer as the Main danger.
Testing my HRB Ratings (rating machine set),
Munstead Star is top rated with a win chance of 21% so the current BF EX price of 5.6 seems to be *****
Munstead Star Wins.
Chelm 7.15pm. Con Stakes.
A race i will swerve. Boyton is top rated in all 4 categories and has won off of a higher weight than it races at tomorrow but it has no AW runs and has not run for 443 days.
Boynton went off at 4/6 and was beaten 1/2 length by Victory Bond who i would not have picked as the winner.
Never give m8, i understand sometimes it feels like your going round in circles as i still have not found accurate rateings/system, it will be christmas soon then can give are brains some rest
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