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Handicaps - One A Day

T

TonCon

Colt
Decided to stick it all on one thread rather than use one per race. Format has changed too but hopefully no less light on analysis/opinion and more to save time by not stating the obvious than anything else.

These write-ups are purely for my benefit, to crystalise my thoughts, try and identify what's good/bad, what's (un)necessary, relative, important etc., rather than for anyone else reading them... because you'll certainly learn nothing new here. Any constructive comments/suggestions are always welcome.

I'm 0 from 5 to date so hopefully it can only improve as it can't get any worse.

Todays :

5.35 Bev. 3YO, C6 H/C, 1M 4F, £2588, Going Good. 12 Run

Low class, low prizemoney, low standard of horse so low expectations - just how I like it.

My Top 4 :

Too Many Shots
Breakwater Bay
Spirit of Rome
Amadeus Rox

Too Many Shots - LTO Ling AW C6 (£3K) on Soft over same distance. 2/10 btn 1 3/4L @ 4/1 carrying 9.4 (+1) RP race comment "kept on same pace inside final furlong" Trnr 1/13 Jock 2/14

Breakwater Bay - LTO Redcar C5 (£3K) G/F, 1M 1F, 5th/9 btn 7 1/2L @ 9/1 carrying 9.0 (+7) making no impression in the final furlong. Trnr 3/36 Jock 8/32.

Spirit of Rome - LTO Bev C5 (£4K) G/F over same distance. 5/5 btn 6L @ 4/1 carrying 8.7 (+13) weakening in the final furlong. Trnr 2/11 Jock 8/38

Amadeus Rox - LTO btn a neck by Too Many Shots - see above - carrying 9.4 (+/-) @ 6/1. RP comment: "outpaced 1F out rallied and kept on again inside final furlong". Trnr 8/27 Jock 2/19

This looks a shoo-in for Amadeus Rox. Btn a neck on seasonal debut (so reasonable to expect a little improvement) by Too Many Shots plus 1lb better off, very decent Trnr/Jock stats.and there's nothing else of any note - everyone is still a maiden - so it's a done deal then. But that'd be dead boring so I'm going to try at least look for something to beat it.

Too Many Shots looks held on LTO, Breakwater Bay has never been over this far plus is 7lb higher and although the Jock stats. are impressive who knows what Tim Easterby is up to, he runs Babalugats as well. The one who might be capable of upseting the applecart is Spirit of Rome. Higher value grade C5 LTO, the 13lb hike puts me off but his Trnr/Jock stats are decent, Going is OK - two of the others ran on Soft last time - and at 10/1 is an EW bet for me, it's just the weight is a worry.
Of the others, Mark Johnston's Nothing Compares has shown SFA to date although the stable won this last year and Mount Cleshar @ 9/1 is just crap at that price.

Good luck all.
 
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0 - 6 to date.

Weds. 17/5/17

2.45 Yarm. C6 4YO+ H/C, 1M 2F, £2264, Going: Good

T4 :

Harlequin Rock
Young Tom
Street Art
Tyrsal

Harliquin Rock - BF 6.6 Running in his usual class of race/course but upped 2F in distance from the norm. Has not shown any talent in his previous runs over longer distances plus is carrying 3lb more than LTO. Trnr is 0/4 but Jock is 5/23. Hard to see this one winning given his previous racing profile.

Young Tom - BF 5.8 This one has run over longer and shorter distances on turf and AW on all sorts of going with the only win coming on heavy over 1M 4F. LTO was btn a hd at S'well AW 1M 3F when keeping on in the final furlong so maybe a spark here but the weight (+9) the most he's carried to date and could be a major factor. Good Trnr/Jock combo.

Street Art - BF 10.00 Won a C7 at Chelms. 1M 2F LTO by a sht-hd. Came last on only run on turf and although a winner LTO and carrying 7lb less today it's had to get past that the AW and not turf is his game. Trnr & Jock stats are crap.

Tyrsal - BF 6.6 Came last of 8 btn just under 5L in a C5 1M H/C carrying 9.11 (-9 today) but this is more suited today. Has notched up 6 wins (4 on turf) and while I've never heard of his trainer but there's a good jockey on today.

I make it between Young Tom and Tyrsal. Tyrsal has been supported on BF (although not as much as Young Tom) but I'm hoping the extra 2F, less weight and the better Jock will swing it.
 
0 - 7

Thurs. 18/5/17

2.20 York C2, 4YO+ H/C, 5F, £15563, Going: Soft

T4 :

Duke of Firenze
Robot Boy
Soie D'Leau
Mont Kiara

Duke of Firenze - BF 8.4 - LTO 4/8 btn 5 1/2L in a 5F £10K 5F H/C at Chester carrying 9.8 (-1) @ 13/2 when not clear run, switched then but not clear run again then finishing well. Won this last year off 13lb lower. Has won on Soft once. Trnr 4/10 Jock 7/32 Draw 11.

Robot Boy - BF 11.5 - 2/6 btn 3/4L carrying 9.8 (-1) in a Ling AW 5F £12K @ 2/1 staying on in the final furlong. Has a previous win on Soft. Trnr 2/24 Jock 7/36. Draw 9

Soie D'Leau - BF 9.0 - Btn 4 1/2L when 4/7 in a 5F C2 £16K H/C (+3lb today) at New'b on first run of season fading in final furlong. Won a £31K Don H/C prior to that and has won on Soft once before. Trnr 0/2 Jock 3/37 Draw 17

Mont Kiara - BF 9.0 - 4/8 btn 4 1/2L in a £13K 6F New'm H/C carrying 8.13 (-6) unable to quicken staying on at same pace. Has never won on today's going. Trnr 1/38 Jock 1/15 Draw 10

The two of these four I like best (although that's not saying much) are Duke of Firenze and Soie D'Leau. Both have bad draws and in a race like this I don't think any of the T4 rated (above) are worth a punt as there are plenty of other horses not rated in my T4 who have equal or better chances. No Bet.
 
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