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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

The writing was on the wall for uxizandre, the win odds went out but the place odds were unrealistically generous if uxizandre actually had a chance. Fox norton was a 4/5 chance going by my mk3 spreadsheet but though the odds of the marker were encouraging it wasn't good enough. I think to learn from this is stick to horses that have a clear advantage as my judgement is suspect especially when I'm tired

That said, didn't it win well

Good luck today
 
I think tiredness is usually my downfall too @hedgehog

Just got back to watch the last 2 races fox Norton did look incredible the way he jumped clear. If only that tizzard treble had been obvious :) I could've retired
 
The writing was on the wall for uxizandre, the win odds went out but the place odds were unrealistically generous if uxizandre actually had a chance. Fox norton was a 4/5 chance going by my mk3 spreadsheet but though the odds of the marker were encouraging it wasn't good enough. I think to learn from this is stick to horses that have a clear advantage as my judgement is suspect especially when I'm tired

That said, didn't it win well

Good luck today
 

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Hello all,

looked at the 4.15 Lingfield and have bet takatul the usual win and place. Lightly raced and with a question mark about going but I've checked its sire, smart strike, which is good for dirt winners in the USA. Currently on betfair it looks like takatul will go off favourite which I take as a positive sign. Lto takatul was beaten in a c2 when at shorter odds in a higher class race. That I take as a positive sign as well.

Good luck today
 
Time for an update and it makes poor reading

new day 12, bank 835.54, % added -5.0%, 6/18

New day 13, bank 775.90, % added -7.1%, 6/20

New day 14, bank 721.58, % added -7.0%, 6/21

Good luck today
 
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Looked at 2 races today, 2.50 Exeter and 4.00 Lingfield but neither had a selection in it. The closest was shantou rock in the 2.50 but it is unproven on the firmer going

Both races are passes

good luck today
 
Hello all,

looked at 2 races today and found 1 clear cut selection

4.00 Wetherby, closest thing to a selection is master jake but not good enough

3.40 Chelmsford I've bet rockspirit the usual win and place

good luck today
 
Have a bad case of 4ths so will enjoy the day and pass on racing today, may look tomorrow but unless there is an absolute standout selection I think I'll pass then as well

good luck today
 
Hello all,

I was impressed by @markfinn having a rated and reasoned so have added additional factors I look for in the form. The first 2 times I tried them out the mk3 had the winners as value then applying the factors lost the winners. Today looked at the 3.50 Cheltenham and initially upswing was a 7% no value for the mk3 but applying the factors brought it up as a value horse along with coologue and gentleman jon. Early days yet, I'll keep using mk3.

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

I was impressed by @markfinn having a rated and reasoned so have added additional factors I look for in the form. The first 2 times I tried them out the mk3 had the winners as value then applying the factors lost the winners. Today looked at the 3.50 Cheltenham and initially upswing was a 7% no value for the mk3 but applying the factors brought it up as a value horse along with coologue and gentleman jon. Early days yet, I'll keep using mk3.

Good luck today
It happens that way a lot - think the best situation is Form 1st - then the +/- reasons - I have found some times I am looking for a reason, or even exaggerating the reason's importance just in order to apply the ideas - instead of just trusting the trainer - or if total brain freeze kicks in swerving the bet - after all we need to be backing less losers overall - so a few well judged winners at he the right price and less lost stakes we would all be be happier.

The main line has to be intent if the trainer is sending the horse out to win - he will have factored some of the hurdles that it has to overcome in order too win - accidents will always happen and there will more than one trainer out to win the race - the higher the prize money, the more live contestants there will be - some times the horses that have the reasons stacked against them are at the bottom of the ratings anyway so that leaves more time for evaluating the ones at the top - I had one last week - Class 4 horse at the bottom of the ratings pile - also worse age and draw stat - a no hoper - won 12/1 - the ones I wanted were 2nd and 3rd so there is no justice.

One loser out of the way, it could have been the third rated that won by a whisker but the result would have been the same 0 return & stakes lost. Also we are in awkward time of year loads of unknown horses about and even the ones we do know might not have come on the way they should have.
 
Thanks @markfinn, reassuring advice. Thanks again.

Looked at the 3.50 ayr and have bet warrior's tale, usual win and place, I feel sure barring accidents it will at least place and think it massive value as my most likely winner

good luck today