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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Discussion in 'VDW' started by hedgehog, Jul 27, 2013.

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  1. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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    I will be looking tomorrow but at 1st glance - Kings horse the place at reasonable odds would seem safe



    upload_2017-4-6_22-10-34.png




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  2. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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  3. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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  4. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    The writing was on the wall for uxizandre, the win odds went out but the place odds were unrealistically generous if uxizandre actually had a chance. Fox norton was a 4/5 chance going by my mk3 spreadsheet but though the odds of the marker were encouraging it wasn't good enough. I think to learn from this is stick to horses that have a clear advantage as my judgement is suspect especially when I'm tired

    That said, didn't it win well

    Good luck today
     
  5. elmoputney

    elmoputney Mare

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    I think tiredness is usually my downfall too @hedgehog

    Just got back to watch the last 2 races fox Norton did look incredible the way he jumped clear. If only that tizzard treble had been obvious :) I could've retired
     
  6. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    Remarkably found another selection in ligeta in the 8.25 Dundalk, have bet usual win and place

    I wish spotting winners was obvious too @elmoputney, it is hard work though
     
    elmoputney likes this.
  7. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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  8. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    @elmoputney, re-reading that I sound more confident than I am, what I should have written is it is very hard work and with no guarantee of success.

    Thanks @markfinn, when I get on my PC I'll read that. Thanks again

    Good luck tomorrow
     
    elmoputney likes this.
  9. elmoputney

    elmoputney Mare

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    No Worries I appreciate its hard work sometimes all the hard work in the world can't help though, I think I would still be looking for Ultragold :)
     
  10. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at the 4.15 Lingfield and have bet takatul the usual win and place. Lightly raced and with a question mark about going but I've checked its sire, smart strike, which is good for dirt winners in the USA. Currently on betfair it looks like takatul will go off favourite which I take as a positive sign. Lto takatul was beaten in a c2 when at shorter odds in a higher class race. That I take as a positive sign as well.

    Good luck today
     
  11. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    I don't know what has happened but I've found another selection! Midtech star in the 7.50 wolves, usual win and place bets
     
  12. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Have bet harry the viking usual win and place in the 3.10 kelso

    Thanks @markfinn, I read teacher's lesson and found it helpful. In this race carrigdhoun and htv are the only ones value according to my mk3 spreadsheet

    Good luck today
     
    markfinn likes this.
  13. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Time for an update and it makes poor reading

    new day 12, bank 835.54, % added -5.0%, 6/18

    New day 13, bank 775.90, % added -7.1%, 6/20

    New day 14, bank 721.58, % added -7.0%, 6/21

    Good luck today
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2017
  14. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Looked at 2 races today, 2.50 Exeter and 4.00 Lingfield but neither had a selection in it. The closest was shantou rock in the 2.50 but it is unproven on the firmer going

    Both races are passes

    good luck today
     
  15. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at 2 races today and found 1 clear cut selection

    4.00 Wetherby, closest thing to a selection is master jake but not good enough

    3.40 Chelmsford I've bet rockspirit the usual win and place

    good luck today
     
  16. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Just bet captain dion in the 3.10 kempton usual win and place but was rushing to get my bets on due to diy. Lesson learnt, give myself more time
     
  17. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Have a bad case of 4ths so will enjoy the day and pass on racing today, may look tomorrow but unless there is an absolute standout selection I think I'll pass then as well

    good luck today
     
  18. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    I was impressed by @markfinn having a rated and reasoned so have added additional factors I look for in the form. The first 2 times I tried them out the mk3 had the winners as value then applying the factors lost the winners. Today looked at the 3.50 Cheltenham and initially upswing was a 7% no value for the mk3 but applying the factors brought it up as a value horse along with coologue and gentleman jon. Early days yet, I'll keep using mk3.

    Good luck today
     
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  19. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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    It happens that way a lot - think the best situation is Form 1st - then the +/- reasons - I have found some times I am looking for a reason, or even exaggerating the reason's importance just in order to apply the ideas - instead of just trusting the trainer - or if total brain freeze kicks in swerving the bet - after all we need to be backing less losers overall - so a few well judged winners at he the right price and less lost stakes we would all be be happier.

    The main line has to be intent if the trainer is sending the horse out to win - he will have factored some of the hurdles that it has to overcome in order too win - accidents will always happen and there will more than one trainer out to win the race - the higher the prize money, the more live contestants there will be - some times the horses that have the reasons stacked against them are at the bottom of the ratings anyway so that leaves more time for evaluating the ones at the top - I had one last week - Class 4 horse at the bottom of the ratings pile - also worse age and draw stat - a no hoper - won 12/1 - the ones I wanted were 2nd and 3rd so there is no justice.

    One loser out of the way, it could have been the third rated that won by a whisker but the result would have been the same 0 return & stakes lost. Also we are in awkward time of year loads of unknown horses about and even the ones we do know might not have come on the way they should have.
     
  20. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Thanks @markfinn, reassuring advice. Thanks again.

    Looked at the 3.50 ayr and have bet warrior's tale, usual win and place, I feel sure barring accidents it will at least place and think it massive value as my most likely winner

    good luck today
     
  21. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Well at least it didn't come 4th.
     
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  22. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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    Not advice just my limited overview - will still be working on Monday
     
  23. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    Looked at the 4.30 Ayr and would go for whatduhavtoget as the winner and hollies pearl as a horse that will place. I'm not betting though

    Good luck today
     
  24. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hollies pearl came nowhere and whatduhavtoget came 2nd. At least it wasn't 4th. A nice improvement, still glad I didn't bet
     
  25. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Have looked at the 3.05 pontefract and bet line of reason usual win and place.

    I'm curious why Edward Lewis, my danger, was described as a group horse in the making but gosden gelded it then it changed stables

    good luck today
     
  26. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    I've bet anibale fly, usual win and place

    Good luck today
     
  27. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Get in, finally a profit. Get in.
     
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  28. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    I bet coneygree, usual win and place, but it messed up the 2nd last. I bet with my heart, sizing john was what my head was saying.

    Good luck today
     
  29. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at the 6.40 punchestown and have bet great field. The odds don't allow for a meaningful place bet so I've bet the full 7% to win. My head tells me this is a good bet and it's also my most likely winner

    good luck today
     
  30. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    There's an interesting article on the Web, if you look for winning streaks you'll find it. Basically it says for your first bet you have a 48% chance of success.

    If you lose the chance of the next loss increases until after the 6th loss your chance of a winner is down to 23%. The loser tries to retrieve the lost money at each bet by wagering on more speculative, higher odds selections.

    If you win the chance of the next win increases until after the 6th bet it's 77% for the next win. The article found that the winner pick less speculative, lower odds bets at each step which they rationalised as the bettor thinking their luck would change so picked less chancey bets.

    I also read an article on poker and how to deal with a losing run, there it said to wager less, less often and not to go for value bets until the run was over. That's what I'm doing with great field. It's marginal value but it is the most likely winner and it's odds reflect that with a good gap to 2nd favourite.
     
  31. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    Looked through the cards last night and picked the 2.20 sandown as a likely race. I've bet royal artillery, usual win and place. I had it between my dream boat, ra and Ulysses. Mdb needs softer going and u needs further and a run or two. The gosden/dettori combo is almost 50% in the last 14 days

    Good luck today
     
  32. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at a couple of races in the last 2 days. I thought the tartan spartan would win but when I originally looked at the odds I would have accepted them but thought wait until later to see if the odds go in. I looked later and the odds had gone out to 5.1 on betfair. I bottled and didn't bet. Tts won.

    Today I thought Al alfa was cracking value and looked at the odds and again saw a huge disparity. I didn't bet. Aa came 2nd but the place portion of my normal bet would have been very profitable.

    The fact that 2 value horses did well is reassuring but my lack of acceptance of greatly value odds confuses me. After a big drawdown I seem to have lost the ability to pull the trigger

    good luck tomorrow
     
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  33. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at the 4.30 Yarmouth and have taurean star as the most likely winner and value at anything above 7/4. I'm not inclined to bet

    good luck today
     
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  34. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    looked at the 3.10 Ascot and think a book of harbour law and sweet selection is the way to go. I make them 7/2 and 3/5 respectively so both nicely value.

    I'm not inclined to bet

    good luck today
     
  35. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    Looked at the 7.20 clonmel and think making a book of gusty rocky and rashaan is the way to go. Gusty rocky is 6/4 and rashaan 9/4 or better to be bets

    Not inclined to bet

    Good luck today
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  36. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    have looked at the 6.05 cork and my selection is prince charmin which I think is value above 9/10 odds. The danger is ballyegan hero but that would need to be over 11/2, the 4/1 currently is because it beat a mullins horse lto.

    Not sure if I will bet

    good luck today
     
  37. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    I've not updated for a while

    new day 15, bank 671.07, % added -7.00%, 6/22
    16, 624.10, -7.00%, 6/23
    17, 580.41, -7.00%, 6/24
    18, 539.78, -7.00, 6/25
    19, 561.28, +3.98%, 7/26
    20, 521.00, -7.00%, 7/27
    21, 565.73, +8.38%, 8/28
    22, 526.13, -7.00%, 8/29

    That makes particularly poor reading

    still not sure if I'll bet prince charmin

    good luck today
     
  38. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Didn't bet prince charmin in the end.
     
  39. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Hello all,

    I've looked at the 1.50 Newmarket and got it down to 3 horses, central square, ballet concerto and dolphin vista. At the current odds you can get about evens for the 3. I'm nervous of dolphin vista but would make a book of central square and ballet concerto which should yield about 6/4 and has a 62% chance of paying off.

    I think ballet concertos running style is favoured by the increase in trip

    I'll not be betting today

    good luck today
     
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  40. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Not the result I was expecting.

    I've looked at the 6.50 Doncaster and would make a book of twin appeal and aardwolf. My hopes are with aardwolf, getting 12lbs wfa, early lead horse dropping in trip so will have fuel left in the tank.

    I'm very tempted to have a bet

    good luck today
     
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