1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.
  2. There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
    Dismiss Notice
Welcome to the UK Betting Forum. Please consider registering, it is free!

VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Discussion in 'VDW' started by hedgehog, Jul 27, 2013.

Tags:
  1. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2016
    Messages:
    275
    Likes Received:
    350
    Looks like you got it spot on!! :text-goodpost:
     
  2. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Thanks @tomwilson1986 I'm just going through a lucky phase.

    I read a very interesting article on the net that said if you note the running styles of each horse then the winner will usually come from the least common style. It worked today.

    Thanks again

    I didn't bet in the end, bottled it again
     
  3. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I've looked at the 2.20 Newmarket and I think a book of muffriha and somehow is the way to go. Strangely my hopes are with muffriha as I think the lto trip was inadequate and its best win has been over course andddistance. It has certainly been contesting much higher class races recently

    I'll not be betting

    good luck today
     
  4. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I've decided the next race I look at, unless it's as confusing as a box of frogs, I'm going to have a bet. What the bet will be I've no idea. I can't win the lottery if I don't buy a ticket!

    Good luck today
     
    pete likes this.
  5. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I've bet 7% on a straight win on stonehall jack in the 7.30 roscommon. I'm happy I've not bottled again
     
    pete likes this.
  6. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Not happy I lost but it was very close.
     
  7. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    have bet 7% on big casino to win in the 3.40 Fakenham. I've also bet 2% on the csf big casino 1st talk of the south 2nd as tots is my 2nd rated and from the last 7 completed runs has come 2nd 6 times. Both horses running styles suit the trip

    good luck today
     
  8. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    Yesterday didn't go as expected, big casino did get the lead and after that never performed well.

    I've looked at the 7.25 Chelmsford and bet 7% on viscount barfield. There looks like strong support for hammer gun starting which I don't mind.

    This is the last 7% I'll be betting for a while.

    Good luck today
     
  9. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    looked at the 3.25 Ascot and it's a pass. My top CIC horse, sagely, is not in my subset and they have a 30% strike rate. Most of the other races I'd look at either have too many runners or too few so I pass today.

    Good luck today
     
  10. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    looked at the 4.00 Ludlow but it's another pass, most of the other races today either have too many runners or are for small purses none of which I fancy. Today is a pass

    good luck today
     
  11. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    Looked at the 7.20 Windsor and have put 7% on kool kompany. I was going to bet win and place but the arse fell out of the place market when mitchum swagger became a non runner

    Good luck today
     
  12. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Abandoned, usually my money stops one horse not a whole race!
     
  13. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Thanks to all the people who have posted or viewed this thread, it's now over 3k replies and 85k views. Thanks again for making this thread a success

    good luck today
     
    nagwa, elmoputney and tomwilson1986 like this.
  14. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2016
    Messages:
    275
    Likes Received:
    350
    Thank you @hedgehog for an interesting and informative thread!
     
    elmoputney likes this.
  15. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    elmoputney likes this.
  16. elmoputney

    elmoputney Mare

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2015
    Messages:
    2,392
    Likes Received:
    4,589
    Keep it going @hedgehog 10000 posts and you get an alarm clock or something :handgestures-thumbup:

    Hope you have a good 7000 posts and make a healthy profit :drinks:
     
    hedgehog likes this.
  17. mick

    mick Dam

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Messages:
    7,263
    Likes Received:
    14,175
    Beware what they do is give you a sex change although as the pair of you are currently gelded perhaps you will welcome.? :eek:
     
    hedgehog and elmoputney like this.
  18. elmoputney

    elmoputney Mare

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2015
    Messages:
    2,392
    Likes Received:
    4,589
    I hear Eunuching but you can't come in :whistle:

    I think the quo had a secret message for us they played at live aid for bob gelded and boneless :eek:
     
    hedgehog likes this.
  19. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    @elmoputney If I manage 10000 posts they'll be giving me a gold watch and best wishes on my retirement!
     
    elmoputney likes this.
  20. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I've not updated for while

    new day 23, bank 489.30, % added -7.00%, 8/30
    24, 445.26, -9.00, 8/31
    25, 414.09, -7.00, 8/32

    Again poor reading

    after 2 recent failures to bet towards a target and my current drawdown of over 50% from my high point I'm giving this challenge up. Both betting towards a target and the drawdown have affected my mindset so I no longer consider the money in my betting bank as betting tokens and am fearful of losing any more.

    I'll lick my wounds for a bit and have a ponder

    good luck today
     
    markfinn likes this.
  21. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I think what I lost wasn't money but my detachment. Being detached is as important as a good selection method, money management, patience and discipline. In fact you can't do any of those 4 without it.
     
  22. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    looked at the 7.30 Hamilton and think a book of yorkidding and sam missile would yield about 7/4.

    I'm not betting. It was good to look at a race without thinking about betting

    good luck today
     
  23. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Not as expected but the first 4 home were in my subset so not a surprise or a defeat

    another day, another race
     
  24. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Looked at the 6.50 Doncaster and have bet 2.5% on indulged which I think is value at anything above 11/8.

    good luck today
     
  25. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Get in!
     
    pete and tomwilson1986 like this.
  26. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2016
    Messages:
    275
    Likes Received:
    350
  27. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Thanks @tomwilson1986 and also @pete, much appreciated and thanks for reading this thread

    looked at the 3.40 Ripon but gave up early. The 4.00 market rasen was initially considered but with only 5 runners the way I work would show no separation in the runners so also passed

    good luck today
     
  28. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Thanks @nagwa and @markfinn for dropping in, much appreciated.

    Looked at the 6.55 Windsor and got it down to perfect quest, lorelina and mighty lady of which I think lorelina is value at anything above 1/2. Lorelina has come in on betfair but I'll wait to bet until there is more money behind the market

    good luck today
     
    pete and nagwa like this.
  29. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Thanks @pete and @nagwa for dropping in.

    Looked at the 3.50 Ayr and 7.40 kempton but both are passes

    Good luck today
     
  30. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    I've been thinking, if I pick my selection from the top rateds of my mk3 spreadsheet then surely losers should come from the low rateds. Picking the lowest rated in the 5/6 bf I'd have

    3.50 Ayr aprovado
    7.40 kempton Jacob cats

    I've done a back check and I should get mid 90s strike rate with a 25% edge

    Good luck today
     
  31. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    The first lay obliges but only just. If I'd have bet that I'd be thinking it doesn't take many 14/1s to really spoil my day
     
  32. pete

    pete Gelding

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    1,540
    Laying messes with my head. All these years I've trained myself to look for positives ... and suddenly you are looking for one that is not going to win it felt unnatural to me.
    The only time I got close to being comfortable with it .. was when I was laying short price favorites to get beat .. (around 8/11 - 2-1 price range) I mostly looked for horses that won lower class maiden races when they were running next time out against more experienced horses. Did quite well with it in US racing, didn't ever do much research in uk racing into how maiden winners do next time out in handicap company ...
     
  33. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello @pete, yes it's new territory for me too. Last night I bought a kindle book which rated races, not horses, to give a best and worst favourite for the day. The best was backed, the worst layed. It got me thinking about my ratings of horses so I back checked 100 races and picking my worst to lay worked.

    I'll paper test this for a while but I'm hoping because I had winning runs of 37 and 29 that I might be able to incorporate it into my normal betting in the hopes of saving my stake on my back bets. Of course there is always the worst when my lay bet goes and wins but in my little sample the worst odds were 10/1 so probably 13.0 on betfair.

    paper test p/l 1.90. 2/2

    the other advantage of laying is I can pick a lay even when I've passed the race.

    Thanks for the response

    good luck tomorrow
     
  34. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    I've looked at the 2.35 Goodwood and got it down to Horsted Keynes, shady McCoy and gossiping of which I've bet a book of shady McCoy and gossiping. My hopes are with gossiping but shady McCoy comes from a good race. A book feels right.

    My paper lay is robanne

    good luck today
     
    pete likes this.
  35. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Looked at the 7.05 and 7.35 sandown. The 7.35 is a pass but a paper lay autocratic comes from it. I'll look at the 7.05 later

    Good luck today
     
  36. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Looked at the 7.05 and it's a pass. I try to get it down to 5 then from them get it down to 3 but the 5 are all well rated so I give up. I'd like to see Elidor win as lto it beat the favourite which was dropping a massive amount.

    The paper lay is vent De force

    by the way, Get In!

    good luck today
     
  37. arkle55

    arkle55 Dam

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2013
    Messages:
    5,463
    Likes Received:
    6,912
    Well done with your book and lay.

    Arkle
     
  38. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello @arkle55, thanks but it is early days for the laying and autocratic won which would have seriously spoilt my day

    paper lay p/l -6.72. 4/5. I've used bf sp for the loss.

    Thanks again
     
  39. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Hello all,

    Looked at the 4.20 goodwood and it's a pass. Paper lay is pacharnana

    Good luck today
     
  40. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    1,662
    Looked at the 8.15 down Royal and got it down to Cecil Corbett, coldstonesober and curragh golan. My preference is curragh golan but it has no marker so it's a pass.

    I feel not losing a bet is better than taking the risk today.

    Good luck today

    Paper lay benemeade
     

Share This Page