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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Discussion in 'VDW' started by hedgehog, Jul 27, 2013.

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  1. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hedgehog,
    had a look at the 8:05 Ripon but I've decided to pass. I've checked my results in sprints and they've been poor in comparison to
    races of 7 furlongs plus. Not quite sure how this is. I intend to continue to keep posting for Grade 2 and 3 handicaps at 7 furlongs and further in distance.

    cheers
    Nellsman.
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  2. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Paper lays p/l +4.24. 24/26

    I was nervous when Eccleston was made favourite but luck was with me

    good swerve @Nellsman
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  3. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    thanks @arkle55


    looked at 2 races today and both passes though one I'd not really be bothered with

    3.30 Ripon, paper lay bahama moon

    6.50 leopardstown, paper lay Marshall jennings

    good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  4. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    3:30 Ripon: (1) Two For Two, (2) Boots and Spurs, (3 jt) Candelisa & Stamp Hill.

    cheers
    Nellsman
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  5. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @arkle55

    Well done @Nellsman, a 14/1 winner from your list. Well done again
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  6. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hedgehog,
    just got a bollocking from the wife for having old formbooks and newspapers strewn over the bedroom floor. I've been looking at Bobajobbers blog and
    have been trying to get my head around the Erin numbers. It's got me beat, I've been up more blind alleys than I thought was possible. I'll give it a rest and let my grey matter settle down. Get back to it later when refreshed. It's a lot simpler to rate the handicappers.

    cheers
    Nellsman
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  7. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello @Nellsman,

    Bobajobber has spent so much time on vdw that if this was an academic setting he'd have a PhD. I can see you are struggling today but keep at it and you'll get it, you're just trying to do the same in a day that bobajobber has spent years on.

    Both paper lays obliged. P/l +6.14. 26/28. I know this is tempting fate but if 2 more lays oblige I'll be on track for the expected 25.1% edge. Cue next lay to go and win.

    Good luck tomorrow
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  8. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    looked at 2 races today

    7.25 Haydock, will come back to this if I have time. Paper lay killeny rose

    7.40 goodwood, not a race I'm interested in and it's a pass. Paper lay parliamentarian, a godolphin favourite that's bound to win!

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  9. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    I've looked at the 7.25 Haydock and have it between monsieur joe, soie d'leau and killang rock which is my paper lay for this race as I got the name wrong, a senior moment.

    Mj and sdl both have good soft ground form so I have bet them and had a saver on kr. If the ground gets softer I can see Mj springing a surprise.

    It's possible today that both my paper lays will win

    good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  10. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    7:40 Goodwood. (1) Rydan, (2) Gavlar, (3) Get Back in Paris.

    good luck
    Nellsman
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  11. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Well done @Nellsman, you had the winner in your shortlist

    I lost, I couldn't have had final venture as it was without a marker, horses without markers do win but not that often

    The paper lays worked unfortunately

    Paper lays p/l +8.04. 28/30

    Well done again
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  12. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    looked at a couple of races today but both are passes.

    3.05 Newmarket, paper lay gunmetal
    3.25 Catterick, paper lay shouranour

    good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  13. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Both paper lays obliged

    paper lays p/l +9.94. 30/32

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  14. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Looked at the 3.30 Nottingham, which is a pass, and paper lay is elysian flyer

    good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  15. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Another lucky lay

    paper lays p/l +10.89. 31/33

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  16. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    Went outside my comfort zone and looked at the 7.40 pontefract, which is a pass, and has paper lay espirit de corps

    Another dry day

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  17. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @arkle55

    Looked at the 7.40 Windsor, it's a pass, and paper lay oasis spear

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  18. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Another couple of lays obliged

    Paper lays p/l +12.79. 33/35

    Good luck tomorrow
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  19. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @arkle55

    Looked at the 4.00 Salisbury and won't be going further. Paper lay kind of beauty

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 and dave58 like this.
  20. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @dave58

    Looked at the 7.30 southwell and not going further. Paper lay paddy's field

    Good luck today
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  21. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @arkle55

    Well I was expecting some lays not to oblige as it was a good run of wins. I had my doubts about paddy's field, it was a hold up horse stretching out in trip.

    Paper lays +10.54. 34/37

    Good luck tomorrow
     
    arkle55 likes this.
  22. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Think I'll take a pause today, the only race worth looking at is the 4.30 Haydock and it only has 6 runners. What I do isn't effective for such a small number of runners and even the paper lays don't do well for that number or less.
    The winning sequence for paper lays was 27 which I think is very good.

    Good luck today
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
  23. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Seems I'm addicted to evaluating races. Looked at 2 races both passes

    7.25 Hamilton, paper lay bronze beau

    8.40 kempton, paper lay acrux

    Good luck today
     
  24. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Both my lays obliged

    Paper lays p/l +12.44. 36/39

    Good luck tomorrow
     
    dave58 likes this.
  25. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @dave58

    looked at 2 races but both are passes

    3.20 Nottingham, paper lay war whisper

    7.40 Haydock, paper lay ice slice

    good luck today
     
  26. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hedgehog, looked at 7:40 Haydock.
    (1) Calder Prince, (2) Abushama, (3 jt) Mythical Madness, Ice Slice.

    good luck
    Nellsman.
     
    markfinn likes this.
  27. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Well done @Nellsman, you got the 1 2 3 in your shortlist. Very well done

    Both my lays obliged

    Paper lays p/l +14.34. 38/41
     
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  28. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Thanks Hedgehog, you're doing pretty good yourself.

    nellsman
     
  29. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    looked at 2 races today

    2.45 Newton Abbot, is a pass, paper lay midnight cowboy

    3.45 Sandown, I've bet shargiah with a saver on richie mccaw, paper lay solo hunter

    good luck today
     
  30. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hedgehog,
    2:20 York: (1) Stipulate, (2) Mica Mika, (3) Innocent Touch, (4) Dance King.
    3:30 York :(1) Related, (2jt) Ballymore Castle, Lexington Times, (3) God Willing, (4) Bertiewhittle.
    3:45 Sandown: (1) Zamperini, (2) Top Beak, (3) Solo Hunter.
     
  31. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Well done @Nellsman, you had a 14/1 3rd in your lists. Well done again

    I got lucky with shargiah.

    I also got lucky as both my paper lays obliged

    paper lays p/l +16.24. 40/43

    Good luck tomorrow
     
  32. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Bad day at Black Rock for me hedgehog, but well done you. Good luck tomorrow.

    nellsman
     
  33. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hedgehog,
    I know I said I would leave the sprints, but I've only got time to work one race and I attend this course quite a lot.
    3:10 Musselburgh (1) Jack Dexter, (2jt) Line Of Reason, Move In Time, (3) Orion's Bow.

    Good luck
    nellsman.
     
  34. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @markfinn


    You had a good race @Nellsman the last time you posted so I'd not let yesterday disturb your rhythm.

    Looked at one race today and it's a pass

    3.50 Sandown, paper lay taurean star

    good luck today
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  35. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Well done @Nellsman, you got a double figure winner in your shortlist. Well done again.

    I got lucky and my lay obliged

    Paper lays p/l +17.19. 41/44

    Good luck today
     
  36. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    looked at 2 cork races today but both are passes

    3.20 paper lay butterflies

    3.50 paper lay ringside humour

    good luck today
     
  37. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Both my lays obliged though butterflies came close to winning

    paper lays p/l +19.09. 43/46

    good luck today
     
  38. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Hello all,

    looked at 2 Nottingham races but will not be taking them further

    7.00, paper lay berryessa

    7.30, paper lay high baroque

    I'm expecting a correction at some point as my actual profit is greater than my expected

    good luck today
     
    dave58 likes this.
  39. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    Thanks @dave58

    Had some time and looked at the 7.45 Windsor, which is a pass, paper lay the salmon man

    Good luck today
     
  40. hedgehog

    hedgehog Gelding

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    My 3 lays obliged

    paper lays p/l +21.94. 46/49

    Good luck tomorrow
     

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