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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Totally Nellsman Nellsman but things like that happen.

Looked at the 7.55 leopardstown and it's a pass, my form horses are elusive heights, speed company, elleval, tandem, jagen hghar, le vagabond and tillys chilli. My paper lay is ceol na nog which is the rp nap

good luck today
 
Hello all,

good luck Nellsman Nellsman , I hope you get the winner.

I've looked at the 2.40 York and got it down to mainstream, lustrous light, azari and beardwood which is a list horse. I've bet azari, lto nk 2nd carrying 11 st in an amateur race. In that race it and the winner were both form horses. If less weight than lto is any advantage then azari should win

good luck today
 
Hi @hedgehog,

My ratings for York 2:40 (1) Mainstreem, (2) Lustrous Light, (3) Beardwood.
Oasis Fantasy has better ratings (from last season), than any of these have shown so far and is down to a reasonable mark. I wouldn't want to bet against him.

good luck and regards
nelllsman.
 
Hi @hedgehog,
I'm off this week, camping in the Western Highlands so I doubt I'll be able to post.
Good luck for the coming week and I'll post again when I get home.

good luck and regards
nellsman.
 
Thanks ArkRoyal ArkRoyal and dave58 dave58

Nellsman Nellsman, have a good holiday.

Looked at the 7.00 killarney and got it down to asking, dilmun, music box and petticoat. I'm not betting but would make a book of asking and music box. I'm nervous of petticoat which beat dilmun but was beaten by asking.

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

looked at the 8.30 leopardstown and got it down to santa monica, tillys chilli, wild irish rose and wingingit. I'm not betting but of those I'd pick santa monica. Dropping from a g1 won by a form horse my way, previously won a g3 and now in a listed. sm is a form horse.

Good luck today
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn and dave58 dave58

not a defeat yesterday but not the results I expected.

Looked at the 7.20 Hamilton and it's a pass, the presence of hoof it being my top cic horse but generally not expected spoils it for me

good luck today
 
Thought I'd give the form horses for the 7.20, they're muntadab, naggers, war department, classic seniority and six strings, I'll be interested to see how they finish
 
I've looked at the 5.00 Newmarket and got it down to ghalib, qeyaadah, love dreams and mazyoum. I'm notbbetting but of those I'd make a book of ghalib and love dreams.

None of those 4 are form horses, I can only see mountain rescue as a form horse and would much prefer it to win

good luck today
 
Hello all,

looked at the 3.25 fairyhouse and it's a pass. My form horses are red avenger, red sabor and rivellino. It will be interesting to see how they finish

good luck today
 
Thanks Nellsman Nellsman, yesterday wasn't that good but it was a pass

Looked at the 7.45 Windsor and another pass. The race is pretty poor with no form horses at all. Something has to win it but I'd not be happy betting

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

I've looked at the 7.00 Chelmsford and got it down to udontdodou, Russian soul and captain dion, which is a list horse. The only form horses in the race are stanghow and maakaasib. I'm not betting but I'd bet captain dion, dropping 5lbs in class, and have savers on stanghow and maakaasib

good luck today
 
Hello all,

yesterday 2 of my 3 horses were non runners so not a defeat.

Looked at the 7.30 naas and it's a pass. My form horses are only mine, rehana, mur hiba, music box, old time waltz and pious Alexander.

I reread systematic betting recently and from notes there based on the roushayd races I should be looking at only mine, rehana and music box

good luck today
 
@hedgehog,

"Mark of Esteem won twice then was raised in class and improved as Roushayd and Vouchsafe had. That's not looking at the RPR or TS but from the result. Roushayds marker was Billet, Mark of Esteem, Ashkalani."
Hedgehog I can't see anyway that MOE improved on any measure. Am I missing something?

Thanks in advance
and regards
nellsman
 
Hello Nellsman Nellsman, I got the idea of form horses from reading form class evaluation in systematic betting. You have class and form, because form is better the smaller it is you have a choice to either subtract from class or divide to get a rating.

Looked at the 7.50 Doncaster and it's a pass. Form horses are bint arcano and Savannah slew. From my notes I need to be looking at bint arcano, Savannah slew, little lady Katie and miss Sheridan.

So I think it comes down to bint arcano and Savannah slew

I got lucky that the 3 I mentioned in the 7.30 filled the first 3 places

Good luck tomorrow
 
Hi @hedgehog,
very well done with your horses at Naas, 3 outa 3 is excellent! The Trifecta paid £78.60. Thank you very much for giving me some pointers,
I am very much obliged to you.

Thanks and regards
Nellsman
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn

Nellsman Nellsman, I am still very much a beginner so any pointers given are done with the caveat that they may just be rubbish.

Looked at the 7.30 York and though it's a goer I'm too tired to do it justice. My form horses are ajman princess, aim to please, rosental and reachforthestars. The idea based on my notes are ajman princess, aim to please and rosental so I think that's the 3 to focus on.

Good luck tomorrow
 
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