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Identifying a well handicapped horse

Discussion in 'Handicappers Blog' started by Jamie, Mar 21, 2017.

  1. Jamie

    Jamie Filly

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    I'm kind of thinking aloud here, looking for some confirmation and I'm under no illusions that there are many more accomplished bettors than I on this forum, but isn't one of the basic premises of being considered a well handicapped horse if a runner's chase and hurdle ratings differ?

    For instance, let's take a look at Zerachiel in today's 4:50.

    He runs in a chase today and is rated 107, while his hurdle rating is 7lbs higher at 114 (edit at 5:25: hurdle rating is 112, so 5lbs higher). Not taking any other factors into account, would this make him well handicapped?

    If we do take another factor into account, the race is 0 - 105, so he just sneaks in. Would this make him handicapped even better for this particular race?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
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  2. Jamie

    Jamie Filly

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    I will take that as a yes :)
     
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  3. tractorboy

    tractorboy Mare

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    I thought a well handicapped horse was one that was in form and running off a lower mark than it had previously won with.
     
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  4. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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    It's a No you cannot just mix ratings if you want common ratings you need ? I don't know perhaps Newspaper ratings or similar
     
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  5. Jamie

    Jamie Filly

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    I agree that's the traditional way of considering a well handicapped horse, but wondered if the steps that I described above are an alternative method?o

    I'm sure that I recall a couple of weeks ago, an ITV racing presenter highlighted a winner who ran off a much lower hurdle mark than their chase rating. Wish I could remember the horse!
     
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  6. OnTheNod

    OnTheNod Colt

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    Sometimes @Jamie in spotting a well H'capped horse it can be even out of form, i find on the flat it is best to rate them of the courses they have run on and see what weights they have carried before as well. But checking the going and sometimes the size of the field can be relevant also, so as a horse can get his favourite running postion and still maybe win, and of course the draw which on some courses and with large fields is hard to figure out.

    So yes as above try and get like for like.
     
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  7. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @Jamie

    There are various ways of deciding that a horse is well handicapped. Sometimes a Chaser will have improved over the larger obstacles and then drop back into a Hurdle off its last Hurdle Mark.

    Sometimes a Horse has moved Yards and that will bring about improvement

    Robin Of Locksley runs in the Haydock 3.40 and was previously with Dan Skelton who had if I remember correctly had his horse vaccinated against Equine Flu. Sometimes it will affect the hires performance. Switched to Caroline Bailey in March and won first time out for her. Will be racing off 8 lbs higher from Saturday and will not be able to even race in this class ceiling. The gamble that the Trainer has to take is will the horse have goten over its exertions with a quick return
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
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  8. wolfetone

    wolfetone Colt

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    Good points, as ever, @Chesham . Paul Nicholls once said that his string were inoculated in January each year and were sometimes off colour for a short while after. I suspect the Skeltons do the same and the same effect occurs.

    There is some sort of tie up between the Skeltons and Caroline Bailey. Harry rides her chasers with some success and Robin of Locksley has been moved to her. Perhaps some family connection.? Robin ought to win today but is naturally very short.
     
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  9. dlinbgrove

    dlinbgrove Gelding

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    I know Richard Hannon had his inoculated late Dec or early Jan, so I'd assume it is probably widespread, hopefully unlike the flu.
     
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  10. Jamie

    Jamie Filly

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    I've just watched the full race as my stream was playing up yesterday and have only just looked at Zerachiel's past record. Three modest non handicap hurdle attempts before being switched to fences. Two previous 0 - 120 chase races (rated 115 & 112) and then yesterday's 0 - 105 off 107.

    From that evidence I'd consider it fair to say that he was well treated yesterday when compared to his two other chase races and it's something that I will be looking more in depth into in future and perhaps look into past races.
     
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  11. OnTheNod

    OnTheNod Colt

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    Hi @Chesham i know i use to follow the jumps years ago, and then found alot of the times when a horse was put over fences and won sometimes high class events, then switched back to hurdles even off a lower weight they could not tackle the change in many cases, i dont know about nowadays. Because it is about 1990 since i last looked at any serious jump form so with new training methods does it work now i wonder.

    The other one if a horse has moved yards how is one to tell, you do say sometimes though, but in a few cases it will but depending how a horse settles and likes its new surroundings i suppose similar to ourselves just things to consider. Maybe is just me but i have always prefered to go on what a horse has shown upfront with any new conditions or returning to older ones.
     
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  12. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I run a Thread on The Blog called Well In

    Same horse two wins in quick succession one over Chase and then dropped to Hurdles

    First race (Won)

    Screen Shot 2017-03-22 at 14.40.09.png

    Next Race (Won) Points to Note, won a Handicap Chase but escaped the Penalty as the next race was a Hurdle Race

    Screen Shot 2017-03-22 at 14.40.32.png Screen Shot 2017-03-22 at 14.40.47.png
     
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  13. OnTheNod

    OnTheNod Colt

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    Thanks @Chesham yes i suppose i should keep my mouth shut i know very little about the jumps now, i still love the flat though! Good Luck with your methods i know you put loads of hard work in.
     
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  14. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    I seem to remember Brian Ellison saying that he expected all his chasers should better their hurdling mark. By a substantial margin too. Maybe that's because horse patently suited to hurdles aren't going to try chasing seriously or horses that are going to make good chasers are marking time hurdling. Then you have French horses who are schooled earlier and more intensively so they might have less improvement. Of course sires and dams might tell you more as would conformation as to that likelihood. It would also be affected by the actual fences and hurdles some are easier or more difficult than others.

    Generally speaking, from my own experience, a well handicapped horse is usually spotted after the event.

    The biggest problem I usually have is to do with field size. Its much easier to gauge form with more yardsticks, knowing the worth or lack of it, of a small field race is much trickier. Do you take it literally or with a pinch of salt? Sunnytahgliatehian beat a small field of trees last time out so how do you assess its chances today? Riddlestown can be a well handicapped horse at Southwell and useless somewhere else. And of course a horse can be well handicapped in the context of a field but not per se. ie, a horse 14lbs out of the handicap is well handicapped compared to a horse 28lbs out of the handicap, especially if the top weight hasn't run for a year, hates the ground, is ridden by a 10lb claimer and can't act on the course. Extreme example but illustrates the point. If you really do have a well handicapped horse, you won't want to waste it, wherever they send it should tell you all they know about the horses preferences, unless their hand is forced by an imminent rise or a change of ground looming. And........ Unless of course that horse might be Irish trained or by Jonjo, in which case knowing it's well handicapped wont stop them trying to get a few more pounds off before the money is down. Oh the glorious uncertainty of horse racing.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
  15. Jamie

    Jamie Filly

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    Thanks for the reply @GLYCERINE

    Your comment about the glorious uncertainty of horse racing really made me smile. It's a wonder that there are so many of us still trying to chase the rewards, when there are so few who reap the spoils!
     
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  16. Swordfish

    Swordfish Foal

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    Excuse me interrupting gentlemen, but I'm more into pedigrees today at Ayr in the 2:45...CHESTERFIELD won at 12/1 the sire Pivotal dam sire Dubai Millennium, not until you look at the form and distance travelled....Salisbury to Ayr and reading the blog on the trainers site, stating that the trainer was traveling up, would I even consider betting on it.
     
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  17. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Not to mention finding a Bookmaker who takes bets after the race has been run
     
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  18. Swordfish

    Swordfish Foal

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    :punish:@Chesham my post was an observation not a tip.
     
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  19. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    It was the Trainers first winner when he has sent a Hurdler to Scotland, so the Distance Travelled is irrelevant pre race, in fact prior to yesterday, if the Trainer has sent a Hurdler further than 117 miles, he has had 7 winners from 92 runners
     
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  20. Swordfish

    Swordfish Foal

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    Afternoon All - well it’s a big week ahead for Team Mullins, off to Ayr to land some decent prizes but back to that in a moment as I must not forget to mention, regrettably, the Annual Charity race at Larkhill this Saturday has been cancelled due to the lack of rain resulting already in the ground being too firm.
    Great shame as it's always well supported from people at the yard. This year Philippa Downing was making her 100th appearance, Tracey Keeping was intending to make a virgin debut whilst Ronnie Ridout obviously had no intention of turning up - despite horse and colours etc all being arranged – he buggered off to Cape Verde with Michelle to avoid his overweight being announced over the speaker system (1 stone overweight I understand, more than that when he returns back to this country!).
    Never mind Ronnie, there is always next year – plenty of time to prepare and even Kevin Watson from Caloona Racing is in training after threatening to take part. – just 5 stone to go Kev, plenty of time to lay off those pies.

    Right, I digress, back to the week ahead.

    Stable going well, Romeo Americo won for the Racing Club last Sunday at Plumpton and we’ve had a couple of seconds this week with Flugzeug (yes I know there were only two runners but they all count!) and I See You Well.

    Reg called me this week in his excitement once he heard from the Boss that he was off to Ayr on another jolly boys outing with James.

    I did have to tell him that Ayr was in Scotland so take some warm clothes; I think he had just packed his Speedos thinking he was off to a warmer climate!

    I spoke to Steph in the office earlier in the week and she said she was going to be the brains in the office, Mission Control she called it!, as the Boss was going up North via saddling a few winners at Southwell. God help the rest of us but I was assured as I heard Ali rustling in the biscuit tin so she was not alone!

    Steph said she had just booked the accommodation for Reg and James, a twin room above a pub? All sounded a bit rough and ready, a bit seedy? At least that’s better than last time they went to Aintree because they had to share a double bed on that occasion!

    When I told Reg this he said it will be ok this time as he would be taking a cork for his bottom! I presumed then all the food and champagne must have upset his stomach at Aintree but I didn’t want to ask.

    Dan was cracked up laughing because they will have to share a twin room – he thinks he ‘s sorted because him and Seamus are travelling up to Ayr together after Southwell – again, finding accommodation en route and he was happy to tell me that Seamus always stays in a decent place.

    I was quick to agree with him, Yes Seamus does always stay in a decent place but when I spoke to him this week the only four poster bed you have in mind Dan will be an upturned park bench somewhere on Southwell High Street!

    Dan quipped back that was untrue because he had his passport packed to get into Scotland!

    I told him the Boss also added that he hoped you liked Scotland because if you don’t ride a double on Saturday on both Chesterfield and Somchine you won’t be getting a lift home and it’s a damn long walk!

    All good fun and looking forward to a memorable weekend ahead. We are a professional yard! Good luck Reg and if I don’t see you again Dan please send us down some shortbread!

    Regards to all, Paul
     
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  21. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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  22. Swordfish

    Swordfish Foal

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  23. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Posted Earlier today on the Inner Sanctum Blogs 'Well In Thread"

    Another example of how a Trainer exploits the Handicap Rules

    Backed in from 2/1

    Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 14.38.55.png Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 14.39.18.png
     
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  24. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    This Thread asked how to identify Well Handicapped Horse and I have shown one method see quotes. There are others, but if the response is abuse like Post 24, then why bother, as it hardly encourages contributions to the OS, from some of the long standing members of UKBF


     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017 at 3:39 PM
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  25. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    I have to admit your comment was not exactly helpful, @Swordfish
    It's disappointing as we are actively encouraging senior members to contribute towards threads made here, and remarks like yours are hardly going to help.
     
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  26. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I run a Thread called Pedigree Handicapping

    Backed in from 7/2

    Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 20.03.50.png

    http://www.tattersalls.com/cat/october2/2015/1351.pdf

    Lets see some of your Pre race Selections then @Swordfish if you want credibility as a pedigree analysts. It is more elitist if you claim to be a Pedigree Expert, but never post anything Pre Race
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017 at 8:18 PM
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  27. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Another from the Well In Thread

    (Won 5/1)

    Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 20.14.26.png Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 20.14.42.png
     
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  28. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I think that you will find that it was me who discovered Godlphin Arabian in the first place

    Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 20.32.03.png
     
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  29. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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  30. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Not sure what you mean by "Do you still have Kanga doing your leg work?" Kanga had a Coder who produced all my Apps, which I paid for and I helped him with some of the data input for a Neural Network Tool that he produced.

    We lost touch some years back as he had an ongoing real life event that needed his full attention.

    The Class Ratings have moved on a bit and are produced by @ArkRoyal for Inner sanctum Members

    Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 21.13.20.png

    I must say you have confused me as you say "would I even consider betting on it." Then later say that you will not post Pre Race selections as you don't back these days and would post anything that you are not backing
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017 at 11:38 PM
  31. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    The last five posts by me may seem a little strange, but @Swordfish has deleted his posts and they were in reply to the posts that he made, before deleting them
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017 at 11:43 PM
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