• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Is this a suitable introduction for novice punters?

wolfetone said:
wolfetone wolfetone. We were both right to be cautious mick mick. Sometimes a loser is as good as a winner! But then , reducing the losers is the thing, cos the winners can take care of themselves then.
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I feel if we are backing the losers for the same good reasons as the winners then the profits will come,although often its the waiting which proves a sod.!
 
mick said:
I feel if we are backing the losers for the same good reasons as the winners then the profits will come,although often its the waiting which proves a sod.!
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Yes mick mick that is what like about the lay bets nearly always one or two bets sometimes more even, then i put my stake at my calculated price, so it dont always get taken. But it seems wierd i only check horses around 5/1 or shorter for their chances to lose, and funnily enough it seems if they are abit bigger price early even if they have poor form than can go on to win more often when i did a test once. also ones that drift from the early 5/1 then come in for me in running seem go onto lose alot especially in larger fields.
 
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Hi GLYCERINE GLYCERINE

RE mick mick Hi @GLYCERINE "It might prove useful if you included some spaced paragraphs"


Mick was suggesting that you space some of your Paragraphs

Your Posts would be easier to read
Example from your earlier post of today

"Oh I am not bothered. People can pick and choose what to read or leave alone. I take the view that I am not trying to produce an easy to read simple set of mantras.

I genuinely believe, and I am sure you know it, that in an age of bookmakers app that promote easy winner finding, a bit of complexity and difficulty is a good thing.

I think its very easy to get into believing that its easy and others have the key and all you have to do is have the courage to invest.

I used to post on another forum and on two occasions tipped for a period of months. All selections proofed. The profits were huge. I turned 30 pounds into a 1000 in 3 months. Just as I said I would.

What was the result? Anger, attacks and a load of begging and upsetting PMS and emails from gamblers in debt. People with marriages falling apart through debts and appeals to tell them how to do it.

The answer was simple. Spend every waking moment working on horses and betting, buy every good piece of software going. Cultivate loads of people you rate and work 1000s of hours testing and proving, researching and reading. When I gave them the answer it was always the same response. Can't you just tell me what to back. I am not bothered.

I love reading informative posts. Really enjoy some of the wonderful contributions on here. Yours included. Am I bothered whether anybody reads what I write or what they think of me? Not one tiny iota. I just like to tell people how complex it is.

To get it really right. No app. No shortcuts. No simple systems. You can get very good at anything if you put the time in provided you have some small talent. But who puts the time in? How many of us master another language, a musical instrument? Another discipline? But just to show I do listen.

I will now go back and paragraphise this bilious outpouring and henceforth will try to remember to 'do a Mick' when I write. I am listening. I can hear my wife downstairs so know a very large black coffee with Baileys is on its way. I am tired of typing on my phone and my thumb aches. Thanks Mick for the friendly advice and if anyone finds this easier to read, thank Mick, not me.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


When set out as above, one does not need to attend Spec Savers for eye strain. :dance2:

Which Forum (s) did you belong to before ?
 
Another thing with trading lay bets is if the field is small, i have had four down so far one i made a balls up with. The other 3 i had doubts but still lay them, one was a 6 runner field best stick to around 8 minimum, another looked well out of form but still had a high current OR, and with the two others, one was dropping in class but the 3 last runs were in a higher grade, and the last one had run in a higher grade on the same track, but run in the same grade many times and failed. But even before all this best rate them current and stretching back two years to form a good overall picture.
 
you see a lot of punters saying how corrupt the racing is in ireland , things happen in racing horses get shuffled boxed in etc , but i must addmitte after looking at 2 races to day its enough to put punters of
have a look at black key in the 2.15 gowran park and Mystic Traveller (515 d/royal ]
both as blatant as you like the former blatantly kept out the placing both rider beggars belief, to be honest
am not one of these jockey moaning types but this was so bad , my other beef is closer to home , when a horse drifts from odds morning price to 7/4 , one must start to question the relationship between connections and bookmakers
each and every horse can drift for a reason , but when you run put the ride in exact tune to the drift , ie basically the horse was given zero chance and never put in the race until it was over , it was over 5f i hear a few cry
make no mystake this horse was deliberately held up of the pace so it could not win today , that is a fact
rem it only faded inside the final fur behind winter in the 1000 guinees we are talking a horse
last year that was in the mix entering the final fur in
Connolly's Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) mixing it up with lady Arelia and roly poly only fading inside the final fur over 6 as a 2 yr old
but the class of these is not in question , for whatever ill gains she was not wanted today end of chapter !
 
wolfetone said:
I read a post on the Introductions thread from P perry this morning and it set alarm bells ringing. Perry is a novice punter, has been losing a bit of cash, and has been trawling the net for answers. He has already come across one site that Dave says looks dodgy, and I suspect he may be susceptible to the lure of review sites.

I hope no one thinks I am being presumptuous but we were all novices once, and we all still have lots to learn. So to Perry and other novices I offer some advice . Firstly listen and learn by observing what is offered on this forum. Nothing is for sale, but there is a lot of wisdom on here, born out of years of learning. Avoid review sites like the plague. They all have loads of systems that are , "passed", "approved" or whatever, so ask yourself this. Why, if there are so many commercial systems that make so much money, do marketeers not just invest all their time and money into following them, and then retire to the Bahamas? Why fanny around collecting affiliate income. Because of course they are salesmen, and that's how they earn their crust, by selling this crap.

If you want to follow systems , the best way is to work out your own using a database like Horseracebase which is dirt cheap.

But first stop losing by stopping betting until you have worked out a way in which you think you can win.

A good starting point if you want to work out your own picks , is this. Try and find horses that are better than their Official Rating, the rating given by the official handicapper. You can get an inkling of this either by subscribing to a ratings service, or by using Racing Post Ratings, and comparing the sets of figures. A chap called Jon Gibby has a very simple method for this. Buy one of his books with the money you would have used for betting and examine it, and try and develop it further. Do not follow blindly his methodology but learn to be selective. Paper trade for at least a couple of months till you have a feel for how horses are handicapped and for the dozens of factors that affect their performance. It ain't easy and there are no quick fixes but it's a very cheap way to learn and you will not be losing money while you learn.

Soak up all the stuff on here, and contribute by logging your experiences along the way. Someone will always help.

Finally I have only mentioned Gibby cos I think it's a quick start solution, and it have no connection with him whatsoever, but he does write in a way that's ideal for novices.

And extra finally, if you do start betting again set aside a small sum that you can afford to lose. Do not attempt to try and believe that you can make a living from betting straight away. You must not be emotionally attached to your betting bank, otherwise you will try and chase losses. Losing is a natural phenomenon and you must expect to lose often, but if you start off in the right way you will eventually become a long term winner.
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Absolutely outstanding advice Sir
 
wolfetone said:
If you want to follow systems , the best way is to work out your own using a database like Horseracebase which is dirt cheap.

But first stop losing by stopping betting until you have worked out a way in which you think you can win.
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I think this is the stage I am at!!
Glad this thread was/is a 'sticky'.....
 
wolfetone said:
I read a post on the Introductions thread from P perry this morning and it set alarm bells ringing. Perry is a novice punter, has been losing a bit of cash, and has been trawling the net for answers. He has already come across one site that Dave says looks dodgy, and I suspect he may be susceptible to the lure of review sites.

I hope no one thinks I am being presumptuous but we were all novices once, and we all still have lots to learn. So to Perry and other novices I offer some advice . Firstly listen and learn by observing what is offered on this forum. Nothing is for sale, but there is a lot of wisdom on here, born out of years of learning. Avoid review sites like the plague. They all have loads of systems that are , "passed", "approved" or whatever, so ask yourself this. Why, if there are so many commercial systems that make so much money, do marketeers not just invest all their time and money into following them, and then retire to the Bahamas? Why fanny around collecting affiliate income. Because of course they are salesmen, and that's how they earn their crust, by selling this crap.

If you want to follow systems , the best way is to work out your own using a database like Horseracebase which is dirt cheap.

But first stop losing by stopping betting until you have worked out a way in which you think you can win.

A good starting point if you want to work out your own picks , is this. Try and find horses that are better than their Official Rating, the rating given by the official handicapper. You can get an inkling of this either by subscribing to a ratings service, or by using Racing Post Ratings, and comparing the sets of figures. A chap called Jon Gibby has a very simple method for this. Buy one of his books with the money you would have used for betting and examine it, and try and develop it further. Do not follow blindly his methodology but learn to be selective. Paper trade for at least a couple of months till you have a feel for how horses are handicapped and for the dozens of factors that affect their performance. It ain't easy and there are no quick fixes but it's a very cheap way to learn and you will not be losing money while you learn.

Soak up all the stuff on here, and contribute by logging your experiences along the way. Someone will always help.

Finally I have only mentioned Gibby cos I think it's a quick start solution, and it have no connection with him whatsoever, but he does write in a way that's ideal for novices.

And extra finally, if you do start betting again set aside a small sum that you can afford to lose. Do not attempt to try and believe that you can make a living from betting straight away. You must not be emotionally attached to your betting bank, otherwise you will try and chase losses. Losing is a natural phenomenon and you must expect to lose often, but if you start off in the right way you will eventually become a long term winner.
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I'm fairly new to horse racing betting and had no clue about how handicaps worked. So looked into it and like you say comparing the official rating with the racing post rating is a good area to start with. I understand that trainers put their horses in races not to win but simply to lower their horses' handicap then put them in races that suit them at a lower handicap. My problem is trying to work out when this is happening is there any indications or tips to give me when this could be happening? In other words which factors should I look out for?
 
mick said:
Chesham Chesham Re your above i would question if there are any experts in this game, but what i do feel is a great injustice is that often the more we think we know the harder it becomes. :eek:
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Hi mick mick

As you know we both come across a few who think they know it all and knock everyone else who are doing things differently. As a result their possibilities of trying something new is limited . The one think I like about the Inner Sanctum Blog is that we re always trying and exploring something different. The Jib Ratings being a good good recent example. The members who produce Speed Ratings are always improving their methods, they have an open mind to possibilities.

Instead of knocking ideas we encourage them and appreciate the different methods that can be used to find winners

The Novice Punter will find endless possibilities by having a blank canvas to start with and plenty of reading material on this forum to explore for themselves.
 
canaryfan69 said:
I'm fairly new to horse racing betting and had no clue about how handicaps worked. So looked into it and like you say comparing the official rating with the racing post rating is a good area to start with. I understand that trainers put their horses in races not to win but simply to lower their horses' handicap then put them in races that suit them at a lower handicap. My problem is trying to work out when this is happening is there any indications or tips to give me when this could be happening? In other words which factors should I look out for?
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Huge subject - where to start - so many start at the wrong end (not a criticism) with conditions eg Going C&D recent form expressed as 5523 / 421. I would suggest start on better class of races - You already have knowledge of the basis of handicapping and the fact that not all races are full of competitors - I would say this that is the thread to follow - find a race - find horses that the BHA handicapper has allotted ratings to and note those that have in recent history had a higher rating - then you have to decide if the horse can exceed its current handicap and get back towards the previous mark where it was successful. Of course it all needs to be inspected in regard today's conditions - G C&D etc but that's where I would start - above all specialise in section of racing before moving to another - get to know the handicap system - BHA website has all you need be-wary of other sources utube etc. So much is crap - old - just plainly trying to sell you something.
 
mick said:
Chesham Chesham Re your above i would question if there are any experts in this game, but what i do feel is a great injustice is that often the more we think we know the harder it becomes. :eek:
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First of all, I am a pretty new subscriber to this forum. It is really thought-provoking. Oh, and good to see another Canaries fan previously contributing to this thread!

I am currently posting tips on OLBG forum, and have had a decent March so far. Haven;t bet for a long while as I need to build up a betting bank. I'm coming around to an approach that is trying to work out the key factor in any race. If I can find one, then it makes my selecting a horse even. And then I would tip/back if I feel that this horse is a value price.

For example, yesterday evening I liked the Chris Dwyer trained, Silvestre De Sousa ridden horse. This is because Silvestre had just one ride on the card at 8.20 on a Saturday evening in a low value race, when his retainer King Power Racing had a runner at the glamour AW meeting of the day at Wolves. Additionally, he had never ridden his Chris Dwyer horse previously, has a decent record for the trainer first time up on one of his horses and the horse had been ridden by a 7lbs claimer in his last start. This horse had previously been trained by Sir Michael Stoute and had only had 13 career starts.
Point being; I was relying on a hunch that the jockey booking was a key indicator of the horse's chance in this race. The booking caught my eye when I first looked at the card and led me to exclaim that it was must mean something. Of course, it could have meant little and then my whole reasoning would have been wrong. However, it was this hunch that led me to investigate further. I haven;t sent he result yet; you might not believe this but I rarely have my mobile phone switched on and I haven;t checked the result out on my laptop yet I like watching races first on the Sporting Life replays before knowing the result! Seeing everyone besides jockeys in races wearing muzzles on the racetrack really puts me off though. I despise the things with a passion.

I think it is easy to get really involved in form, speed figures, statistics, et really closely. And that is a way that most people will win long-term maybe. However, there must be logic behind that and sometimes maybe the logic may stem from intuition, a hunch, call it what you will, which you can then try to back up by looking at past form, stats, etc.

I must admit that I am not one for producing reports, stats, etc in my daily working life, (I'm a credit-controller). I prefer to be involved in making things happen myself by communicating with the debtors and account queries. In general, I do feel the world is becoming ever more data-driven, with the human, intuition based element being overlooked too much. Many people thing stats rarely lie, but they are only ever as good as factors such as how well the figures are produced, sample sizes, bias from the producers of the stats, etc. Outside the racing world for example, I am aware that deaths from flu were bundled in with deaths from Covid as from October last year Therefore I totally mistrust the number of daily deaths from Covid stat.

I am probably going off at a tangent here. Suppose I am trying to say that maybe it is best to try and use logic when betting; maybe to work out what a trainer's plan is for each horse as well. Some trainers are obviously more predictable than others and that must be factored into the market. Sir Mark Prescott's modus operandi is pretty obvious really, and it is pretty easy to work out when to back many of his horses. He is bloody good at placing racehorses and if you fancy following certain yard's horses, (and although I have never done this, I do like the idea of this approach), his would be a good one to follow, I suspect.

Anyway, hopefully I can keep learning as I read and maybe contribute to more threads on this website!
 
Hi M mattyboy and welcome. I tend to view the obvious or easy finds with suspicion but when i have a horse of interest off my ratings then sometimes working backwards i think we can see a plan which supports and reinforces the chance and this can make us part of the plan and ahead of the market.
 
Bluebazooka said:
As someone who likes the occasional bet on horseracing but would never ever consider myself anywhere near competent enough to profit long term from backing horses regularly, I have hit upon some success by simply following just one trainers runners and rarely bet on other horses.
The stable I follow is suzy smith, who trains in Sussex, not a million miles from me.
Through closely watching all her rides i pretty much know all her horses capabilities, which I certainly wouldn't know about other random horses. The added bonus is I've yet to see a suzy smith horse which isn't trying to win.
For a small yard she's had some very nice touches over the past few years.
For the punter who doesn't want to bet everyday I recommend select a stable and follow just that stables runners and you'll soon have the knowledge of that trainers horses and in turn will be able to assess the best betting opportunities.
Not really for the everyday punter though as runners are often few and far between.
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Hello all, first post on here.
As an extension to what Bluebazooka has said, it is VERY worthwhile "attaching" yourself to as many stables as you can. When i say "attached", i mean closely following each and every horse that those stables have. Obviously i dont mean the likes of Appleby, Mullins, Nicholls, Henderson etc etc, its the Suzy Smiths of this racing world that provide the fun and more importantly, the profit. There are some "smaller" trainers out there who can do the job just as well as the Nicholls and Gosdens of this world. They just dont have the numbers for whatever reason but do well with what ammunition they have.
Obviously it can be very time consuming going through the entries and declarations to see what runners "your" stables have going but at the same time, there are no short cuts to making this game pay. Look back through their past form for their "preferences" e.g. going, distance, track etc. Look at what marks they have won off and note the "ceiling" mark. Once they have reached a certain "high", their run will come to an end and that is when it is time to just watch them and not be tempted into a bet because the trainers job then will be to get that mark down again to where he or she wants it and its time to start again.
There are an abundance of smaller trainers out there who are well worth following and I myself have nine on my radar. I will name one of them only because she is featured on the front page of the Racing Post today and that is Sam England. She is a very capable trainer, she knows the time of day and is one that i find fairly easy to work out with regards to when to have a bet and when its just a case of watching.
I liken it to having a stable of my own. A bit like Fantasy Football. I have a "stable" all of my own made up of a mix of horses from many stable and i know their preferences, winnable marks etc etc.
Its time consuming (but then again i dont really have anything else to do) but it pays !!
Just to add that i dont just stick to these stables when having a bet but these are the ones that are very closely monitored.

Thank you for reading my fairly long post. I didnt start out with the intention of making it that long.
 
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