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Jockey

David Punshon

David Punshon

Yearling
Back and raring to go for the winter months. Constantly working on upgrading my Ratings would just like to know peoples views on Jockey Ratings. Are they a worthwhile exercise and can they be adjusted for run styles etc
Many Thanks
 
I have not seen much research done in this area in the UK (not saying that the info isn't out there somewhere, I have just not seen it)
.. however it is certainly something that is available in the US.

jwst.PNG

This shows Jockey in 2017 has an 18% strike rate .... but that drops to only 7% when he rides horses that are considered "closers"

If you look into this, it will probably be worth breaking down further into sprints and longer distances.

The run styles in US races however, are much more pronounced than the run styles in the UK. So I have no idea if the stats would have much variance. ??
 
I was thinking the other day after Frankir Dettori won his 5th Arc on Enable.

Would Enable have lost had a different jock been on board?

What if it was Ryan Moore?
What if it was Royston Ffrench?
 
pete pete i think the other aspect for this country is course variance.These stats are useful but taken at face value can be misleading.You spend plenty of time re watching races and prob form opinions Re how a jockey has ridden on a particular course ,or utilized a running tactic and as a punter i would feel more interest in this than his bare percentage stats for same. When both are positive then great but likewise betting against a neg jockey stat when possible cause can be identified will often put points on the price.;)
 
yes mick mick you are of course correct. In the USA Jockeys tend to stick to one or two tracks ... or certainly to a very small (relatively speaking) geographical area when riding, and of course most of the tracks are alike ... 1m - round - dirt, more than anything it is a judgement of if a jockey can pace a race well on a closer ... some can, and get it right a lot of the time ... they don't worry too much about the horse up front, they just worry about getting the best time out of their ride, and hope that a speed duel up front tears the race apart and sets things up for a closer in the final couple ... very exciting to watch when it happens ... and its why I concentrate on closers more than early speed runners. :)
 
I can still recall when Steve Cauthen wiped the floor against some of our top jocks via "waiting in front tactics" i think some of these hold up merchants often become a little to smart arse.
 
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I use my own pace score using the last 4 runs with the higher the number in the "Pace Score" the more likely they are to lead plus the Pace Style is the most commonly used tactic. I was looking to see if it was possible to match up with a Jockey Run style rating. For example I tend to find if R Kingscote is booked for the first time connections intend on being more forceful
 

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David Punshon said:
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I use my own pace score using the last 4 runs with the higher the number in the "Pace Score" the more likely they are to lead plus the Pace Style is the most commonly used tactic. I was looking to see if it was possible to match up with a Jockey Run style rating. For example I tend to find if R Kingscote is booked for the first time connections intend on being more forceful
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Timeform have Trainer Ratings, Jockey Ratings and Pace Charts

The Jockey data also provides run style and on the run style of their previous mounts

Example

TF are predicting a weekly Contested Race and highlights two runners who may benefit in the 1.30 Notts

Masayyan is trained by John Gosden and his TF Rating 66.5 66.5 % od his runners have run to form and no downturn according to the graph


035C4E4E-FA75-4C7A-93DC-CA8942979A23.jpeg

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Frankie Dettori is booked and 71.2 of his mounts have run to expected Form according to their TF Ratings. He performs better if he has ridden front runners

A36E0ED1-008B-4C4F-9406-F9F47F8E870E.jpeg
PJ Mcdonald has. 55.6 % Rating and has a slight preference for horse who race midfield, but pretty much is the same on any pace scenario
773A5838-B0AE-4756-A0CE-F92D831AA947.jpeg
 
Many thanks
Chesham said:
Timeform have Trainer Ratings, Jockey Ratings and Pace Charts

The Jockey data also provides run style and on the run style of their previous mounts

Example

TF are predicting a weekly Contested Race and highlights two runners who may benefit in the 1.30 Notts

Masayyan is trained by John Gosden and his TF Rating 66.5 66.5 % od his runners have run to form and no downturn according to the graph


View attachment 51165

View attachment 51166


Frankie Dettori is booked and 71.2 of his mounts have run to expected Form according to their TF Ratings. He performs better if he has ridden front runners

View attachment 51167
PJ Mcdonald has. 55.6 % Rating and has a slight preference for horse who race midfield, but pretty much is the same on any pace scenario
View attachment 51168
Click to expand...
Many Many Thanks
 
Frankie Rode a good race from the front and he had a job to pull the horse up after crossing the line. Looks like he has inherited some of the cream from the Female Tail Line
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I threw in a a daft late bet whilst having lunch, requesting 3.0. Only a small bet bet but it did get matched. Hit a high of 3.8 but very light market.

I find it incredibly difficult on rating a jockey.

Curtis was one that I always thought punched above his weight, but having looked at his one ride today, the likes of P. Dennis, Neil Farley and Jack Osborne read well.
 
Curtis was one that I always thought punched above his weight, but having looked at his one ride today, the likes of P. Dennis, Neil Farley and Jack Osborne read well.
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Maybe I should scrap horse form and stick with jock form . Curtis wins @ 20/1 on his only ride.

Neil Farley wins the next.
 
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I definitely think I should scrap horse form for Newcastle. The Ratings struggle to find any angles and form, sire stats etc impossible to phathom
 
David Punshon David Punshon it should get easier over time, it's still quite a new course isn't it? In a couple of years there should be quite a bit more data to go at
 
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