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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Hi @mtoto no worries, my misunderstanding.;) I agree your point Re the markets they are based on opinions and if we can find good reasons to disagree with the majority ones then we increase our value edge.When i cannot disagree then like yourself i am inclined to swerve.
 
Hi @mtoto

On HRB it had the going as Good and looking at the wins it usually had soft (GD/sft) or worse in the description. I was surprised that the Trainer put the horse in the race as after the March win, the opinion was that the Aintree Race would come too soon.

The recent wins on Heavy seemed to indicate that the horses physical problem, a kissing spine, meant that he would not want good or firmer ground as it would cause more pain. The other reason was that the younger horses would be going too quick for RR to get into the race at the closing stages as he would be too far behind. ( I always remember Willie Carson saying that in some circumstances you can give weight, but not give away lengths)

I think the Trainers first opinion that the Ayr Nationl Meeting would have been the best option. A wasted run yesterday as the horse does have Class.
 
Aintree 1:45 1 Zarkandar 2 Barney Dwan 3 Fountains Windfall
Aintree 2:25 1 Finian's Oscar 2 Messire Des Obeaux 3 Lough Derg Spirit
Aintree 3:40 1 Henri Parry Morgan 2 Our Kaempfer 3 I Just Know
Aintree 4:20 1 Yanworth 2 Cole Harden 3 Ptit Zig
Aintree 5:15 1 Definitly Red 2 Shantou Flyer 3 Pleasant Company

Probables
Aintree 1:45 1 Fountains Windfall 2 Desert Cry 3 No Hassle Hoff
Aintree 2:25 1 Finian's Oscar 2 Le Breuil 3 Lough Derg Spirit
Aintree 3:40 1 I Just Know 2 Value At Risk 3 Our Kaempfer
Aintree 4:20 1 Supasundae 2 Puffin Billy 3 Aux Ptits Soins
Aintree 5:15 1 Definitly Red 2 Pleasant Company 3 Goodtoknow

All week if not all season I have been looking forward to this, but on working the races I don't feel confident about finding a profit in any of them!!

This maybe a little arse about face but I will start with the 5:15 as it the race I have spent the most time on. It just about sums up the days racing as there is nothing clear cut and it just adds to the confusion in my mind. For personal reasons, that I can't really explain in a logical way I just can't have Definitly Red. I did spend a fair bit of time having a very good look at Shantou Flyer but the way they have campaigned him looks slightly strange. Is this horse a true stayer that they have tried to to hide and keep him unexposed? I make him the class horse but that is based on form from two and a half miles. Leaving him to one side I then have a major problem with Saphir Du Rheu. Based on past experience I don't have him as an improving horse, although logic says otherwise. Using the usual figures I have him reasonably well down the rankings but while figures often flatter horses in this case I think they are doing the opposite and he should be the class horse in this race and that would put him in with a big shout. + the trainer would give his back teeth to win this and settle the championship. These are just a couple of the problems with this race another one is Saint Are, of the six horses with proven form he is the strongest and he is another who will be trying very hard. If pushed I would split the stakes and back both Shantou Flyer and Saphir Du Rheu, but no one is pushing except possibly the wife wanting a bet and those are the ones that will be suggested if need be.
1:45 Zarkandar clear class horse who stood very little chance in his last race. This just be a good way to bow out as this is the lowest class he has raced in for a long time. The biggest danger looks to be Barney Dwan, but is he much better on stiff courses, another question has he had enough time to recover after a hard race last time out? Fountains Windfall class wise has plenty to find, the last two runs only showed the horse is alive and has four legs. Zarkandar small win loaded place
2:25& 4:20 not races that interest me from a betting point of view
3:40 Even though Henri Parry Morgan achieved the figures that have him top ranked at this meeting last season I couldn't back him until he show something like that old form. Our Kaempfer is back in a lower class on a more suitable course. Hopefully there will be enough give in the ground for him. The danger here looks to be I Just Know, but he has plenty to find class wise and he has the cross check to over come as well. Did toy with a small win loaded place on Our Kaempfer but think 3/1 the place would be the minimum I would take.

Be Lucky
 
Pont 4:10 1 Cymro 2 Ashkoul 3 Great Hall.

Probables
Pont 4:10 1 Ashkoul 2 Empress Ali 3 Just Hiss

Cymro is the clear class horse, and is the only runner with proven form in a higher class. So far so good, but for me there is a major problem, the course, can he achieve these figures on a stiff course? He has shown he can win first time out but the price is too tight and I'm far from convinced this is a serious run and more a prep for something a little later into the season Chester perhaps or some other speed course. Ashkoul if he can handle the different pace from French racing he could be the fly in the ointment here. His form seems to be from the smaller French course and I have no idea about their configurations but the handicapper giving him a 94 seem reasonably impressed, or is it just an educated guess covering his backside? I'm leaving the race alone.

but no one is pushing except possibly the wife wanting a bet and those are the ones that will be suggested if need be.

Wife only asked one question re the national, is One For Arthur on your d/base. Answer yes so she backed him as the grandson's name is Arthur. So much for serious study and the assistant trainer telling the world he was happy to pull the horse out because of the going :eek: :doh:



Be Lucky
 
Wife only asked one question re the national, is One For Arthur on your d/base. Answer yes so she backed him as the grandson's name is Arthur. So much for serious study and the assistant trainer telling the world he was happy to pull the horse out because of the going :eek: :doh:
:lolsign:
 
Bath 3:30 1 Permian 2 Doctor Bartolo 3 Atkinson Grimshaw
Bath 4:30 1 Oh This Is Us 2 The Warrior 3 Hors De Combat

Probables
Bath 3:30 1 Doctor Bartolo 2 Atkinson Grimshaw 3 Mister Manduro
Bath 4:30 1 The Warrior 2 El Vip 3 Oh This Is Us


Looking back through my records I find this is the first race from Bath I have worked in the recent past, and even not so recent. From memory Bath has no watering facilities and the going can get very quick.

3:30 Permian made it onto my list of year olds to look out for, and this is formulated with the classics in mind. Today's price stops there being any sort of a bet. even though he ticks more than a few boxes. The first being the only runner with form. but in a slightly lower class but is still the class form horse. He can act on firm going and is proven over the distance and a stiff course. He also has an eye catching jockey booking and a slightly surprising one at that. The jockey is one of my favourites and I think very often underrated, however much as I like the jockey it doesn't improve his chances of winning. Much is often made of a jockey's capabilities, but in all honesty I think there is very little between the actual riders, the difference is the horses ability 90% of the time and the other 10% is preparation, walking the course etc. and of course thinking, and having a plan . For me Robbie Power is living proof of this, suddenly he is a 10 year over night sensation and is a wonder jockey!! I don't think he has really improved that much he is just getting on better horses.
4:30 Again the prices stop me getting involved. Oh This Is Us is versatile when it comes to course type and distance. The worry apart from price is how much did Doncaster take out of him and has he had enough time to recover? The Warrior while he can handle stiffer tracks the going and distance would be a problem for me and the cross check suggests he has plenty to find. Hors De Combat is the class horse but it is some time since he put in a performance good enough to register on the d/base. He can act on firm going but I would need to see some of the old sparkle before I could back him
So nothing today but at least it made me have a serious look at another course, and it will be interesting to see if there are many more class races put on at this course.

As in the main the members of this forum are sensible grown up folk I do wonder why the need for some to think they need others to do their thinking for them!! Why the need to point out some of the posts need careful consideration and do they really think folk would part with money to get these so called tips!!?? If these folk were just ignored I think they would soon get fed up and push off. Without being rude I do wonder if so much of the good stuff is hidden away in secret places the general public on reading the open forum think the place is full of folk ready to be fleeced as it appears some of the posts lack knowledge . Just a thought. :acute:

Be Lucky
 
@mtoto The Bath going is now firm and this will play a part in some of the outcomes.I have backed Equally Fast @25/1 in the last and his previous nk 2nd on same going was a contributing factor.Re your last para i have not got involved but there are two sides to the story.When i started out many years ago i was fleeced on several occasions ,if these forums had been available then i think less likely.? While i agree that left alone those who post with a hidden agenda tend to hang themselves i also feel its a positive to challenge said agenda if it is suspected.?

One aspect i have noticed is that when threads go this way they can attract plenty of posts and comments.Often more so than those on horse racing receive from some members.None of my business really but i cannot help but think its an arse about face way of progressing matters.? :confused: If we feel the need for a ruck the Bookmakers are a better target.;)

PS Pleased to share and agree your thoughts on jockeys.First find the horse and only then start investigating who is on top and why.Some of my favorites are not in vogue but this often adds points to the price.;)
 
Hay 2:05 1 No Planning 2 Ballybolley 3 Aerlite Supreme
Hay 2:40 1 Shanroe Santos 2 Bob Tucker 3 Fort Worth
Mus 3:00 1 Mailshot 2 Rashford's Double 3 Mazyoun
Hay 3:15 1Valhalla 2 Stamp Your Feet 3 Tonto's Spirit
Mus 3:35 1 Montaly 2 Isharah 3 Suegioo
Hay 3:50 1 Late Night Lily 2 Poppy Kay 3 Secret Door
Hay 4:20 1 Fortunate George 2 Cooking Fat 3 Midnight Shot
Hay 4:55 1 Actinpieces 2 Conquer Gold 3 Twenty Eight Guns

Probables
Hay 2:05 1 No Planning 2 Captain Redbeard 3 Mumgos Debut
Hay 2:40 1 Shanroe Santos 2 Rathlin Rose 3 Behind The Wire
Mus 3:00 1 Rashford's Double 2 Mailshot 3 Mazyoun
Hay 3:15 1 Tonto's Spirit 2 Limited Reserve 3 Caius Marcius
Mus 3:35 1 Isharah 2 Stipulate 3 Carbon Dating
Hay 3:50 1 Poppy Kay 2 Secret Door 3 Culture De Sivola
Hay 4:20 1 Fortunate George 2 Cooking Fat 3 Sam Red
Hay 4:55 1 Conquer Gold 2 Magic Money 3 Two Smokin Barrels

Plenty of races but very little in the way of proven class

3:15 Valhalla is one of only two runners who has proven class in better races than this. He seems to be at his best on tight flat course on good going, he has both today. Seems to be able to handle any distance and stable back in form. the next two in the rankings both have plenty to find although Tonto's Spirit being the strongest probable and doesn't have the problem of the cross check to over come. + he is young enough to have some improvement in him.Valhalla small win loaded place.
3:35 Montaly Read somewhere he was being looked at for the Chester Cup so had marked him down as one to look out for. On studying his form I find it a little worrying that the figures being used come from Haydock but a win can't really be argued with even a Haydock win. At first I thought the trainer had traveled to Scotland with just the one horse and that helped justify spending the time looking at him, but there is another runner later on. He is one of only three runners with form in this class or better and the other two (same trainer) look as if they are being prepped for Chester, and I would like to see something better than they have achieved in the recent past. Montaly small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 2:40 1 Village Vic 2 Voix D'eau 3 Thomas Crapper
Newm 3:35 1 Sea Of Grace 2 Pamplemousse 3 Poet's Vanity

Probables
Chelt 2:40 1 Starchitect 2 Thomas Crapper 3 Casino Markets
Newm 3:35 1 Pamplemousse 2 Sea Of Grace 3 Poet's Vanity


Like yesterday I can't find a bet. However unlike yesterday this is for very different reasons. Yesterday the race was just a complete mess from my point of view. Class of the race was in doubt as it was based on only on foreign form and there were two such runners just to add to the uncertainty. After working the race the likely selection had the what for me is usually a very big question has it had enough time to recover from its last (hard)race Add in there were several unexposed horse from big stables and all in all the prize money wasn't that great a race to use as a prep race for later on??

Today's races are purely down to the fact I can't see a horse whose chances are not reflected by the prices on offer.

One little surprise was the fact Spark Plug is down as a runner, and I'm 100% sure I read he was put down after an accident on the gallops. Did I really read that or was it just another senior moment??!! o_O:confused:

Be Lucky
 
I had no thoughts on the race but it was great to see Sparkie pick up 6k for fin 3rd. ;) I had always felt that Spark Plug was an unfortunate name for a Race Horse but have changed my mind.;)
 
Chelt 2:05 1 Dusky Legend 2 Verdana Blue 3 Deauville Crystal
Chelt 3:15 1 Indian Stream 2 Carnspindle 3 Miss Crick
Chelt 3:50 1 Upswing 2 Coologue 3 Virak
Chelt 4:20 1 Solstice Star 2 Mr Clarkson 3 Two Swallows

Probables
Chelt 2:05 1 Deauville Crysta 2 Brillare Momento 3 Smaoineamh Alainn l
Chelt 3:15 1 Carnspindle 2 Mariah's Legend 3 Miss Crick
Chelt 3:50 1 Upswing 2 Talk Of The South 3 Virak
Chelt 4:20 1 Mr Clarkson 2 Two Swallows 3 Seas Of Green


Again hard to find anything that defies its rating hence its price leaves very little in the way of value.

2:05 & 3:15 did seriously consider backing the top two rated, as once again it looks like the prices are going to be to tight, and I must try to look at the shorter priced horses. In the end what put me off is the fact both had hard races last time out, and as the runs where better than most expected how much did it take out of them? While I do have a tendency to favour females in long distance races I have no idea if they can recover faster than males after a hard race.
3:50 Again the prices are to tight
4:20 Solstice Star is the only runner today that is priced to interest me. A long way ahead of these on class and course will be fine, going and distance maybe a problem but hoping the class will carry the day. I do find it hard to think the trainer would risk what must be one of his better horses on unsuitable firm ground. There again he does have a problem in what to do with this horse as he is exposed over the shorter distance with hurdles and chasing didn't seem to be an answer. Solstice Star small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
Newb 2:30 1 Guard Of Honour 2 Swashbuckle 3 Havana Beat
Ayr 3:50 1 Drumlee Sunset 2 Theinval 3 Warriors Tale
Newb 4:10 1 Chessman 2 Omran 3 Dark Destroyer
Ayr 4:50 1 Rons Dream 2 Timeforwest 3 Happy Diva

Probables
Newb 2:30 1 Swashbuckle 2 Rainbow Dreamer 3 Warrior Of Light
Ayr 3:50 1 Warriors Tale 2 Katgary 3 Drumlee Sunset
Newb 4:10 1 Dark Destroyer 2 Chessman 3 Omran
Ayr 4:50 1 Timeforwest 2 Wyfield Rose 3 Elusive Theatre


Here we go again, well perhaps it should be here I go again, nothing stands out for me again today.

2:30 On my figures the best rated have to find their form, or at least fulfill their potential. I have Havana Beat the class horse by a distance but he has failed to live up to those figures too many times for me to trust him until he confirms he can get somewhere near them again.
3:50 Did have a good look at Drumlee Sunset but decided against as his best form has been on undulating course and price doesn't really allow for any doubts with three others close up class wise. Warriors Tale is the strongest probable and the course shouldn't be a problem, but again the price is to tight for me.
4:10 the rankings for this are based purely on the probable scores but as the probables have been holding their own that may not be a bad thing!! However when I look at the prices only Dark Destroyer interests me but although rated the strongest probable I have serious doubts about him being able to show a profit in this today.
4:50 Again I have a clear class horse in the shape of Rons Dream, this mare won the race last season so course and time of year should not be a problem. This is a fair drop in class from her last two runs and a return to this track suggests this would have been a target. Not sure if it's greed but I would want a much better price than that being offered for the place as there are several big dangers close up in the rankings.
Be Lucky
 
Ayr 1:40 1 Final Nudge 2 Delusionofgrandeur 3 Keltus
Newb 1:55 1 Second Step 2 Crimean Tatar 3 Midterm
Newb 2:30 1 Glitter Girl 2 Promising 3 Queen Kindly
Ayr 2:45 1 L'ami Serge 2 Peace And Co 3 Ozzie The Oscar
Newb 3:05 1 Dream Castle 2 War Secretary 3 Zainhom
Ayr 3:20 1 Double W's 2 Vaniteux 3 Yorkist
Newb 3:40 1 Fanciful Angel 2 Chelsea Lad 3 Donncha
Ayr 3:55 1 Missed Approach 2 Seldom Inn 3 Premier Bond
Ayr 4:30 1 Kalondra 2 Connetable 3 The Dutchman

Probables
Ayr 1:40 1 Final Nudge 2 Delusionofgrandeur 3 Keltus
Newb 1:55 1 Crimean Tatar 2 Dal Harraild 3 Chemical Charge
Newb 2:30 1 Glitter Girl 2 Promising 3 Dabyah
Ayr 2:45 1 London Prize 2 Tommy Silver 3 L'ami Serge
Newb 3:05 1 Dream Castle 2 War Secretary 3 Barney Roy
Ayr 3:20 1 Ifandbutwhynot 2 Double W's 3 Apterix
Newb 3:40 1 George William 2 Chelsea Lad 3 Mountain Rescue
Ayr 3:55 1 Battle Of Shiloh 2 Dancing Shadow 3 Dawson City
Ayr 4:30 1 Hollies Pearl 2 Whatduhavtoget 3 Beer Goggles

Far to many races to go through in comfort. The first three Newbury races have had a line put through them. Two of them because nothing has an ability rating the way I work and the first race looks more than a little tricky, and there are other races to interest me

2:45 Sceau Royal was my bet for the Champion Hurdle and although he did have a Cheltenham win against his name I wasn't really convinced he was better over a stiff course. The main problem was I never really thought the stable had it right re the favourite and wanted to take him on. What better than taking the stable outsider. I make Sceau Royal the class horse in this and I think the course is more suitable than Cheltenham, while I think the dangers all have performed to their best on stiff courses,. I'm backing Sceau Royal a straight e/w well win and place but to the same stake.
3:40 This presented me with a real problem as Master Carpenter was a bet last time out and although there was no pick up I thought he ran a blinder. Ok the jockey could have done with a little more experience and followed the experienced riders into the middle of the course. Today I don't really know what to make of his draw as he could yet again get trapped unless the field move into the middle. I really do think this horse is capable of picking up a nice prize. Just t
2 Connetable 3 The Dutchman

Far to many races to go through in comfort. The first three Newbury races have had a line put through them. Two of them because nothing has an ability rating the way I work and the first race looks more than a little tricky, and there are other races to interest me

2:45 Sceau Royal was my bet for the Champion Hurdle and although he did have a Cheltenham win against his name I wasn't really convinced he was better over a stiff course. The main problem was I never really thought the stable had it right re the favourite and wanted to take him on. What better than taking the stable outsider. I make Sceau Royal the class horse in this and I think the course is more suitable than Cheltenham, while I think the dangers all have performed to their best on stiff courses,. I'm backing Sceau Royal a straight e/w well win and place but to the same stake.
3:40 This presented me with a real problem as Master Carpenter was a bet last time out and although there was no pick up I thought he ran a blinder. Ok the jockey could have done with a little more experience and followed the experienced riders into the middle of the course. Today I don't really know what to make of his draw as he could yet again get trapped unless the field move into the middle. I really do think this horse is capable of picking up a nice prize. Just to add to the puzzle I have marked Fanciful Angel down as a horse to look out for this season, based on the fact he nearly always puts in a form run and the competition and going all seem to be handled quite well the only thing that puts him off is when there is soft in the going conditions . I'm backing both small win loaded place and splitting the stake between them.
3:55 This race has been good to me in the past and I was expecting See You At Midnight to run in this again. He isn't but the trainer has entered another horse who claims the class tag Seldom Inn, however it is very close class wise between him and Missed Approach. Both are improving with form in a higher class than this. Seldom Inn seems to need soft in the going and it is advertised as good to soft. Both are nice prices so once again backing both small win loaded place to split stakes.

Be Lucky
 
Epsom 2:45 1 Permian 2 Cracksman 3 Tartini
Epsom 3:50 1 Faithful Creek 2 Speed Company 3 Banditry

Probables
Epsom 2:45 1 Cracksman 2 Tartini 3 Youmkin
Epsom 3:50 1 Banditry 2 Speed Company 3 Faithful Creek


2:45 Once again I'm not really happy with the price being offered on Permian. Much like his run on the 14th April he is the only runner with an entry on the d/base and the way I work the figures that run is a slight improvement on his rating. While I put very little value on pedigrees, and the cost of horses I still think Permian has it all to do with the potential class in this race. Add in for me there is a doubt about the course being suitable I think he will be hard pushed to even gain a place.
3:50 A little while ago I may have taken a chance with a couple of the lower weighted horses in this as I do like course form at Epsom, that or proven form from one of the very few undulating speed courses but the cross check does make me hesitate. Faithful Creek does have course form all be it in much lower class and a long time ago. But the cross check does quite clearly rule him out. Banditry is a little closer to being acceptable on that check, and his course form is a little more recent but again in a lower class. So nothing today just a nice cold cider and a peaceful afternoon.

Basically I have only posted this to save the need for e-mails asking what/who are the probables as quite a few seem to be following them. I have even had e-mails saying just because you can't find a selection/bet doesn't mean no one can!!

Be Lucky
 
None of my business really @mtoto but i just felt the need to ask why are these people not posting on here as opposed to using PMs.:confused:
And surely they are just betting the probables blind - otherwise if they can find a selection amongst the probables when you can't, surely they would have a method of their own?
 
Sand 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 First Up 3 Contrast
Sand 2:20 1 My Dream Boat 2 Ulysses 3 Arthenus
Sand 3:30 1 Jallota 2 Kool Kompany 3 Dawn Of Hope

Probables
Sand 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 First Up 3 Jupiter Light
Sand 2:20 1 Royal Artillery 2 Ulysses 3 Deauville
Sand 3:30 1 Kool Kompany 2 Sovereign Debt 3 Dawn Of Hope


Having a rough day so giving it a miss although can't say anything stood out or caught my eye!!

None of my business really mtoto but i just felt the need to ask why are these people not posting on here as opposed to using PMs.:confused:

@mick To be honest I wasn't going to answer this as it may offend some on here. Some, not all have been members and are like me not that happy with the way the forum has progressed. One answered with the comment why should we contribute to a forum where much of the intelligent stuff is hidden?
I'm quite often asked why I carry on posting when it is obvious I'm not happy with the hidden postings and my answer to that is simply I'm astounded by the amount of work and effort Ark puts into this forum, and I'm just sad it could be even better if it wasn't for a few hiding their thoughts ideas from folk who do make an effort to join in or would if others were a little more open. I can see there are far too many lurkers but the answer to that is delete anyone how doesn't contribute within a certain time etc. not to penalise some who just may have something interesting to say but think why should they when others hide their thoughts away.

And surely they are just betting the probables blind - otherwise if they can find a selection amongst the probables when you can't, surely they would have
a method of their own?


@jm77 That is the problem for some they can find selections where there are none for me. Some are more than happy to back the shorter priced horses and don't put as much emphasis on course configuration as me. I have explained how the probables are formulated to some but not all, and for some reason I don't really understand others often seem to come up with a different short list.

Be Lucky