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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Chesham said:
Hi mtoto mtoto

Kentuckyconnection has only ever won a maiden race and never raced in a Handicap, I would see this as a negative

Mastercarpenter is below his last winning BHA and at the Track, so of your two bets this looks your best option
Click to expand...

Well Done mtoto mtoto a well handicapped horse won

Also had the Best SS Master Rating and Top Master + Average
 
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York 3:30 1 Benbatl 2 Permian 3 Crystal Ocean
York 4:05 1 Firmament 2 Thikriyaat 3 Another Touch

Probables
York 3:30 1 Crystal Ocean 2 Permian 3 Forest Ranger
York 4:05 1 Chelsea Lad 2 Another Touch 3 Firmament

NB somehow the top rated in the race Speed Company was missed of sorry if it caused any problems :idk:


3:30 The only horse that interests me price wise is Permian. Looking at it the best he could manage even with all the luck in the world is a third place and his place price isn't worth the risk.
4:05 This is tricky, Thikriyaat and Top Notch Tonto are the class horses . Before I could back Thikriyaat I would need some proof his heart was up to scratch and that can't really be known until it and the horse come under pressure. Top Notch Tonto has improved slightly in his last run but still has a lot to find to warrant using the old figures. Firmament does have proven form on this course but his profile says he is best on a stiff course Ascot being the most favoured. He does hold an entry in Ireland but I would think he will be saved for the Royal meeting and this draw doesn't look to do much to help him today. Another Touch is another with possible doubts re the going, the flat speed course should not be a problem though. He is improving and this is only a slight rise in class . Another not favoured by the draw but hopefully the jockey will have the experience to deal with it. With the draw worry I would want 3/1 the place to warrant the risk so if that price can be obtained small win loaded place otherwise no bet.

Well Done a well handicapped horse won.

Chesham Chesham
That is the beauty of horse racing, it worked for both of us as I still didn't look at weight and still found the winner

Be Lucky
 
York 3:30 1 Dartmouth 2 Muntahaa 3 Crimean Tatar
York 4:05 1 Cymro 2 Gibbs Hill 3 Burguillos

Probables
York 3:30 1 Muntahaa 2 Marmelo 3 Dartmouth
York 4:05 1 Gibbs Hill 2 Burguillos 3 Ashkoul


3:30 Prices to tight for me, which is a bit of a pity as I do have a question mark against the likely favourite Dartmouth. This is based on the track and to a certain extent going. Ascot stiff right handed is nothing like York and on soft(er) going on a speed course like York he can be questioned. Muntahaa is the opposite he is better on firm going on speed courses and the soft has given him problems on stiff courses. After some thought I giving the race a miss but a surprise could well be on the cards.
4:05 Cymro Is the only runner in this with proven form in a higher class all be it only just. Going and trip look ok and the only problem is the price, place price that is. Have to admit I was tempted to back him just for the win but I have seen far to many fail when it didn't look likely. Both of the next two in the ranking are there based on their probables figures and both seem to prefer stiff right hand course when performing on the turf. I'm going to leave it just hope it isn't just down to greed but I'm hesitant to stop doing something that has stood me in good stead for some time. Making a profit the safest way possible!!

Be Lucky
 
Newb 2:55 1 Time To Study 2 Mucho Applause 3 Glorious Forever
Newb 3:30 1 Ribchester 2 Galileo Gold 3 Aclaim
Newb 5:10 1 El Hayem 2 Sinfonietta 3 Grand Inquisitor

Probables
Newb 2:55 1 Time To Study 2 Mister Blue Sky 3 Mucho Applause 3 Glorious Forever
Newb 3:30 1 Aclaim 2 Somehow 3 Lightning Spear
Newb 5:10 1 Zlatan 2 Sinfonietta 3 El Hayem


2:55 Field of unexposed three year olds with very little to go on. Here I'm relying purely on the probables rankings and while Time To Study is the strongest on the bare figures he is giving away race fitness, and there is a possible doubt re the course. Mucho Applause has no worries about fitness but once again the course may be a problem as his best so far has been on stiff courses. Glorious Forever is another who is race fit and the course and going should be no problem. Another that caught my eye is Mister Blue Sky, he also is race fit and course /going should suit at the price I was interested until the cross check put me off. No bet
3:30 While this could be a very good race to watch there is nothing of interest betting wise for me.
5:10 El Hayem at the moment I'm not convinced El Hayem isn't just another Stout talking/hype horse. While what the official handicapper's thoughts don't have any baring on my workings I do notice even with the media hype his OR hasn't actualy improved from last season. This added in with the slow starts and question marks re going make him a suitable candidate to take on At first I thought Sinfonietta maybe the one to do it with as the course,and going looked fine but the price reflects that. However on re working the race after finding a blip on the d/base I now find Grand Inquisitor is the second best horse class wise., and this looks to be the first time the going is suitable. There is a slight doubt re course as his best so far has been on a turning course, but at the price it suggest someone MAYBE interested in his chances. Grand Inquisitor small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
mtoto mtoto I was interested in your 5.10 comments as Grand Inquisitor was the only one of interest to myself.There was some 28/1 aval which has now disappeared.I would not be concerned about the str course he has run some decent races over a str 7fur.My problem was the soft ground ,even though my rating comes from same plus he has won g-s i am not sure it best suits so decided to swerve the wager.I hope you collect but whatever the outcome i think he is now rated to win a decent hcap at some stage this season.
 
5.10 El Hayem has the best MA + Av and is Top on mtoto mtoto Rating. Lightly raced at 4 Y-O Is Ranked 1 on PR and Best Speed Fig over C&D

Pedigree Nicks Good

Screen Shot 2017-05-20 at 15.01.28.png
 
I'm having a small interest in this race and Al Hayem is not even in my top four :eek:
The shortest of my top four is Sinfonietta but I'm going with Mutarakez win & larger place with a small win saver on Raising Sand.
 
El Hayem, missed the break lto made up ground to go past winner Sound advice, SA then stalked EH. Final furlong EH went inside looked like he would win, SA went outside and finished the better. EH is running again very quickly, this race looks like a drop in class. EH should run his race, but i have not had time to look at the draw, so no bet for me.

Arkle
 
Hay 2:20 1 Suegioo 2 Yorkidding 3 Swashbuckle
York 2:40 1 Dal Harraild 2 Seamour 3 Harrison
Hay 2:55 1 Indian Dandy 2 Naval Warfare 3 Mustarrid
Chs 3:05 1 Fastnet Tempest 2 Sound Advice 3 Above The Rest
God 3:10 1 Top Score 2 Horroob 3 Aardwolf
God 4:20 1 Oriental Fox 2 Top Tug 3 Angel Gabrial

Probables
Hay 2:20 1 Velvet Revolution 2 Yorkidding 3 Swashbuckle
York 2:40 1 Harrison 2 The Tartan Spartan 3 Alyssa
Hay 2:55 1 Indian Dandy 2 Naval Warfare 3 Private Mission
Chs 3:05 1 Fastnet Tempest 2 Mount Tahan 3 Ice Slice
God 3:10 1 Horroob 2 Aardwolf 3 Hyde Park
God 4:20 1 Batts Rock 2 Oriental Fox 3 Manjaam

Selections for a race in the week were missed due to the internet playing up. That was also the reason I didn't get back to Ark and I will have to try again but I'm more than happy with the suggested outlay.


When I start to work/look at the races I try very hard to look just at the figures and leave the form reading to the last job. So as I like long distance races and the most valuable the 2:20 was the starting point today.

2:20 Suegioo is the clear class horse, and while it is some time since his last win and for that matter since he scored his best figures. He still had been recording figures strong enough to warrant an entry on the d/base. Seems to be quite versatile RE track and going. On the figures the only real danger looks to be Yorkidding and for some reason I do like the female of the species in long distance races. Read somewhere it something to do with them carrying more fat that helps the stamina, told the wife about that and got a slap for my troubles.:eek: His jockey booking also caught my eye. Have to admit while I don't really expect Suegioo to win unless he finds his old form from somewhere I do think he is well capable of a place. this is where greed kicks in as I will have to have a small win (just in case) as well as the loaded place.
3:05 & 3:10 spent a little time looking at these two races. Fastnet Tempest at first glance ticks most of the box's but the price is silly tight as there are a couple of things that could go wrong for him in this. The main one being can/will he act to advantage on a tight course and while the draw is a favoured one will he have the early pace to hold a position? The price doesn't really allow for the risk
3:10 Top Score holds all the aces figures wise but I have more than a few horse on this d/base who have gained their figures in really top class races and have failed live up to their potential. Again price too tight to be taking risks so will wait and see.

Be Lucky
 
Red 3:35 1 Banditry 2 Swift Emperor 3 Euchen Glen.

Probables
Red 3:35 1 Euchen Glen 2 Briardale 3 Swift Emperor


Have to admit I had to think long and hard before I worked/looked at this race. A few years ago it was a top class race that many laid horse out for. But now it is only a ordinary hcp and about the value of a race I was looking to pass on.

Banditry comes out best on the bare ability figures but for me there is little doubt he is at his best at Epsom, and this is a very different type of course. The one that interests me in this is Swift Emperor, placed in the race last year and following the same campaign trail. It reads as if this is a target and the jockey booking looks more than favourable as both jockey and trainer do well on the course Small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
mtoto mtoto I too looked carefully at this race before having a punt.
Banditry ends up top of my short list etc. I can envision Briardale running a decent race too. :handgestures-thumbup:
 
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4 Y O's do well in recent years and Euchen Glen looks like he could progress this year. Ran Well in a Good Handicap at Ascot last year
 
Epsom 2:35 1 Remarkable 2 G K Chesterton 3 Spring Offensive
Epsom 3:10 1 Hawkbill 2 Highland Reel 3 Air Pilot
Epsom 3:45 1 Brorocco 2 What About Carlo 3 Examiner
Epsom 4:30 1 Rhododendron 2 Natavia 3 Coronet
Epsom 5:50 1 Atteq 2 Firefright 3 Wahash

Probables
Epsom 2:35 1 G K Chesterton 2 Sixties Groove 3 Spring Offensive
Epsom 3:10 1 Hawkbill 2 Journey 3 Elbereth
Epsom 3:45 1 Fidaawy 2 Storm King 3 Brorocco
Epsom 4:30 1 Natavia 2 Enable 3 Sobetsu
Epsom 5:50 1 Firefright 2 Wahash 3 Black Trilby


Epsom is a course where I do like to see course form, this maybe a win, or a personal best just something to show the selection can act on the course. Goodwood is just about the only other course even with the obvious differences I will use if there are no horses that fulfill the first requirement.

Scattered through out today's possibles are far too many horses with course form making it very hard to settle on a selection.

3:45 Is one such race with all three of the top ranked having very good course form, + there are others who have the same. The top two have the same final figures but as I don't like to have joint anything I always try to split them using a set method. Of the top three Examiner is the class horse but fails on other considerations, consistency being one and the fact his best figures actually come from a stiff course. His figures from this course leave him with something to find class wise. Brorocco is improving and comes from a stable I like the two slight negatives are he only just makes the grade on the x check and of course the price. This leaves What About Carlo dual course winner and placed in this last season. Stable in cracking form Worries there are always some. going and time of year. Going don't think he would be risked if there was a serious doubt about it and time of year they did think he could/would go well when fresh What About Carlo small win loaded place.

Have to admit I had to think long and hard before I worked/looked at this race. A few years ago it was a top class race that many laid horse out for. But now it is only a ordinary hcp and about the value of a race I was looking to pass on.

The reason I was looking to give these races a miss is simple the place money is good enough to ride horses out if their chance of actually winning has gone . It is annoying to see the jockey stop riding but for me at least it is very understandable why beat a horse up for less money than can be gained for winning an average/mediocre race? On Monday I was lucky. folk turned up and I got side tracked and by the time I got around to looking at a bet the price was to tight for me. I supose many would have taken the shortening price as a positive and perhaps had a little more on.

4 Y O's do well in recent years and Euchen Glen looks like he could progress this year. Ran Well in a Good Handicap at Ascot last year

Chesham Chesham Again interesting you had an opinion on the race. Euchen Glen was noted as the strongest probable but passed over because there were two horses with an ability rating. One had a rating that showed it had proven form in a higher class but was for me reasonably eliminated for sound reasons . If there are horse running in a race with an ability rating it takes a lot, nearly impossible to take a probable with no ability rating over it. I thought the race was an interesting lesson in form reading, 1 waste of time taking and trying to use collateral form, the jockey stopped riding Swift Emperor when the chance of winning had gone so how trust worthy is that form apart from the winner? When I looked at the race Swift Emperor was a 10/1 + shot so did the money placed on him increase his chances of winning ? It confirm someone but we don't know who thought he had a better than 10/1 chance of winning and does the money really make the form stronger ?

Be Lucky
 
Hi mtoto mtoto

SE is entered in a Class 3 (0-95) (Races off 92 ) Ripon Race and David Barron won that race with Suits Me

SE has never won a Class 2 in 7 attempts and Class 3 looks to be his Class Ceiling

Screen Shot 2017-06-02 at 14.51.11.png

He might do well in top of the Framed Handicap

Screen Shot 2017-06-02 at 14.55.27.png


The Stewards considered the running of SWIFT EMPEROR (IRE), ridden by Phillip Makin and trained by David Barron, which finished unplaced. They noted the trainer’s representative could offer no explanation for the gelding’s performance. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the gelding during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.
 
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