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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well Done @mtoto with the Loaded Place on WAC
     
  2. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Epsom 2:00 1 Drochaid 2 Hajaj 3 Emenem
    Epsom 2:35 1 Laugh Aloud 2 Absolute Blast 3 Urban Fox
    Muss 2:50 1 Pirouette 2 Realtra 3 Hells Babe
    Muss 3:25 1 Mister Manduro 2 Alabaster 3 Cray
    Epsom 4:30 1 Permian 2 Eminent 3 Cracksman
    Epsom 5:15 1 Gawdawpalin 2 Carntop 3 Eddystone Rock

    Probables
    Epsom 2:00 1 Drochaid 2 Hajaj 3 Emenem
    Epsom 2:35 1 Laugh Aloud 2 Tisbutadream 3 Absolute Blast
    Muss 2:50 1 Hells Babe 2 Pirouette 3 Realtra
    Muss 3:25 1 Alabaster 2 Cray 3 Euro Nightmare
    Epsom 4:30 1 Cracksman 2 Permian 3 Cliffs Of Moher
    Epsom 5:15 1 Spinners Ball 2 Whinging Willie 3 Gawdawpalin


    Again plenty of races to look at but once again my figures seem to agree with the odds makers.

    4:30 Eminent is my ante post bet and have to say I'm very glad I placed the bet when I did as today's price doesn't interest me in the slightest. So the first couple of worries sorted themselves out, first the horse runs, and then the biggest danger from my point of view ran in another race. My reading of his last race seems to be very much like the trainers thoughts. Trainer was happy travelling and running on an untried track was no real problem. Still think the Eclipse would have been a better target, but perhaps he will go for both. Leaving the E/W bet as is as the place price doesn't warrant an increase of stakes.
    5:15 While I do look for course form on this track none of the runners with it appeal to me. Gawdawpalin did warrant a second look but price is too tight and he fails the cross check. Although he has winning form and scored his best figures on the course I do wonder with his trait of hanging left, and at times right does the camber really suit? I'm taking a chance with Carntop his best has been achieved on a course that some say is similar to this and this is the first time since that best run he has run on a suitable course. Today he also looks to have suitable going so if he has really recovered from his injury he should be able to put in a good run as he is joint second best class wise and the class horse still has to find his turf form and it is quite some time since he put in a form run on turf. Carntop small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  3. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    Carntop was suffering from severe ulcers last year
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
  4. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well done @mtoto very nice place price, 7.21 on BF
     
    mtoto likes this.
  5. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Newm 2:30 1 Ejaaby 2 Parfait 3 Juanito Chico
    Hay 3:30 1 Ajman Princess 2 Maleficent Queen 3 Return Ace
    Newm 3:40 1 Nakeeta 2 Angel Gabrial 3 Jaameh
    Hay 4:05 1 Jallota 2 Breton Rock 3 Growl
    Newm 5:25 1 Kapstadt 2 Berkshire 3 Majeed

    Probables
    Newm 2:30 1 Juanito Chico 2 Omran 3 Thomas Cranmer
    Hay 3:30 1 Ajman Princess 2Zain Arion 3 Maleficent Queen
    Newm 3:40 1 Jaameh 2 Hot Beat 3 Cape Cova
    Hay 4:05 1 Absolutely So 2 Jallota3 Breton Rock
    Newm 5:25 1 Firnas 2 Kapstadt 3 Sgt Reckless


    Went to bed last night thinking I had my bet sorted out, woke up to find it is a non runner . Had to start all over again and to be honest nothing really jumped out at me.

    2:30 Only the top two ranked have entries in the d/base and the two most likely dangers don't show on there. Both of these dangers have question marks against their names along with the prices being offered they look worth taking on. Juanito Chico has had too many chances to win on my workings/thinking seven of his last runs have been good enough to class as in form runs and of those he won only two. The biggest worry with him is both of those wins have been on courses that bare no relation to today's course. Omran seems to have been kept to the flatter tracks and his wins have both been on the A/W. The same can be said for the only horse that really took my eye Ejaaby, but his best so far has been on a stiff track but over 6f, did toy with the idea but the top weighted horse put me off when it came down to it.
    The worst thing one can do is to go looking for a bet when a none runner looks to have negated the hard work put in. So no bet today.

    Be Lucky
     
  6. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    York 2:20 1 Get Knotted 2 Salateen 3 Theodorico
    York 2:55 1 Gabrial 2 Mondialiste 3 Custom Cut
    Sand 3:50 1 Home Cummins 2 The Warrior 3 Laidback Romeo

    Probables
    York 2:20 1 Theodorico 2 Burnt Sugar 3 Gurkha Friend
    York 2:55 1Khafoo Shememi 2 Golden Stunner 3 Arabian Hope
    Sand 3:50 1Laidback Romeo 2 Palmerston 3 Greenside


    2:20 Of the top three Salateen interests me. All surfaces seem to be handled with equal ability. Many will be put off by the weight but he has earned it. Best figures to date have been achieved on this course and he is reunited with a jockey that knows how to win on him. I do make Get Knotted a danger and have to respect his chances, however as I'm, looking at profit/return rather than strike rate the price has to be taken into account. The main worry with GK is the figures returned last time out are far higher than anything he has recorded in the past and the race comments included the words ridden and driven and he hasn't been given much time to recover. Theodorico's ranking is based purely on this probable figures and class wise has plenty to find. He is a course winner and has won his last couple of races and the cross check also says he is up against it. Salateen small win loaded place
    2:55 Price wise Custom Cut is the only one of the top ranked that interested me and to be honest I'm not sure why he is being offered at such a big price. His best figures suggest he is better over a stiff course but he has two entries on the d/base with figures in higher class on this course. I did think long and hard but find I just can't agree with VDW when he says class doesn't fade. Custom Cut's figures just don't agree with that thinking.
    3:50 really has me scratching my head. I was quite happy with Home Cummins being the class horse. However when I looked
    at her profile I was very surprised at the Sandown entry when there was a suitable race at York the course she excels on. I can find nothing that hints at a stiff right hand track is needed.

    Just the one bet and a quite day waiting for the rugby tonight and Ascot next week.

    Be Lucky
     
  7. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto talking of Ascot any AP wager for yourself in the Hunt Cup.? I have backed Bossy Guest @ 33/1 and would be interested in your take on the contest ,if you have one at this point.Re your vdw comment class does not fade............What context did he mean.? I think age and or miles on the clock can affect or prevent a repeat of previous class.?
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  8. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    talking of Ascot any AP wager for yourself in the Hunt Cup.?

    @mick I haven't had a good look at that race yet, but I will later. The majority of my ante post bets are are NH or the longer flat races Ebor etc. As so many think speed figures are more accurate over the shorter distances I think the way I work gives me an edge when it comes to these races, right or wrong I think class is a bigger factor over the longer the distance. Did have a quick look at Bossy and his ability rating the way I work is better than fair so good luck!!

    Re your vdw comment class does not fade............What context did he mean.? I think age and or miles on the clock can affect or prevent a repeat of previous class.?

    The actual words quoted by VDW read ............... I am at variance with views expressed by F.Chester and I quote 'Ability however has its peaks and troughs. What's more a horse's ability fades in due course'. In my view both statements are completely wrong. Usually, ability will remain static, fluctuate slightly, progress steadily upwards or rise sharply. Ability cannot eventually fade, this is tantermount to saying a horse's victory will in due course be regarded as a second and so on down until eventually it will be established as never to have been in the race at all.

    F.Chester may be confusing the issue with form which does appear to fluctuate, but if he cares to study it in more depth he will find a great deal of it
    is just illusion. Consistent form relative to the rest of the field, combined with ability in better class events is a force to be reckoned with and I think he has missed the point entirely. END


    Like so many of the thoughts of VDW this is open to personal interpretation. My take on it is it should never be forgotten what a horse has achieved in the past as it MAYBE capable of repeating that performance, the job then/now is to judge whether or not the horse is capable of confirming that form under these conditions. So many seem to just accept the ability rating as a set in stone figure and that for me is a major stumbling block for many trying to use VDW

    Be Lucky
     
    mick and markfinn like this.
  9. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ascot 2:30 1 Cougar Mountain 2 Ribchester 3 Mutakayyef
    Ascot 4:20 1 Churchill 2 Lancaster Bomber 3 Barney Roy
    Ascot 5:00 1 Suegioo 2 Thomas Hobson 3 Magic Circle

    Probables
    Ascot 2:30 1 American Patriot 2 Ribchester 3 Miss Temple City
    Ascot 4:20 1 Churchill 2 Barney Roy 3 Thunder Snow
    Ascot 5:00 1 Thomas Hobson 2 Rainbow Dreamer 3 Yorkidding


    2:30 Before I worked this race I thought reading the hype Ribchester was home and hosed! I was very surprised to find he wasn't the class horse and had doubts re the going (for me at least). Add in most of his better performance figure have been on "speed" courses. I make Cougar Mountain the class horse and those figures were scored on this course, at this meeting, on this going. I agree those figures are getting on the old side, but can't ignore the fact his best performances have been on stiff courses on firm going. Much is said about how professional the stable is I find it hard to believe they have held on to this horse for the sake of it, are they waiting for it to fulfill its potential ? Mutakayyef is another who has good form on both types of courses but his very best has been on flatter course. I would make him a bigger danger to Cougar Mountain than Ribchester on this going. Cougar Mountain small win loaded place to half stakes.
    4:20 Can't see any value in this
    5:00 I find the figures usually hold up well in the long(er) distance race and here I have only two with proven form in higher class races. I have Suegioo as the class horse with Magic Circle having the better last time out form, all very tight!! At the prices I slightly favour Suegioo on this course and going. I'm well aware of the horses reputation but looking at his profile I do wonder if he has lost a bit of speed, but his stamina is holding up. Suegioo small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
    formtheory likes this.
  10. formtheory

    formtheory Mare

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    Surprised to see the above! I definitely make Ribchester the class horse. Shows how interesting horse racing is and how views differ.

    Good luck!
     
  11. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ascot 2:30 1 Top Score 2 Daban 3 Le Brivido
    Ascot 3:40 1 Qemah 2 Greta G 3 Smart Call
    Ascot 4:20 1 Jack Hobbs 2 Highland Reel 3 Mekhtaal
    Ascot 5:00 1 Master The World 2 Zhui Feng 3 Fastnet Tempest
    Ascot 5:35 1 Paco's Angel 2 Queen of Time 3 Gymnaste

    Probables
    Ascot 2:30 1 Beat The Bank 2 Winning Ways 3 Le Brivido
    Ascot 3:40 1 Greta G 2 Qemah 3 Pirouette
    Ascot 4:20 1 Mekhtaal 2 Jack Hobbs 3 Ulysses
    Ascot 5:00 1 G K Chesterton 2 Fastnet Tempest 3 Tabarrak
    Ascot 5:35 1 Queen of Time 2 Cheval Blanche 3 Gymnaste


    2:30 The horse they are offering as the likely favourite has more than a few questions to answer for me. Can he repeat those figures on this going in a race that is very likely to be run at a different early pace than he is used to? There may not be that many good front runners but I think there are enough to give him major problems. Did toy with a bet on Top Score as on my figures there is very little between him and Dream Castle and he is a much better price and it begs the question why run them both? Because Daban is in there with a better than fair chance as the course, distance , and going should be no problem the question here is how good does her trainer think she is when she takes on the boys at level weights? No bet but will watch with great interest.
    3:40 & 4:20 Nothing here for me
    5:00 Four runners with proven form in a higher class but two of them have figures that are starting to grow a little old. Of the other two Master The World is the best/class horse but Zhui Feng has the strongest recent form . Both can act on stiff courses although there perhaps is a doubt about a straight course being in MTW's favour. I'm backing both small win loaded place to half stakes.
    5:35 Of these 24 runners only one has an entry on the d/base and on checking I find when that happens the returns are more than favourable . So Paco's Angel is the bet small win loaded place, and because of the price half stakes will still give a handsome return. If this horse was trained by a bigger trainer I'm convinced she would be a shorter price than the one on offer. The official handicapper's figures suggest she has to be respected, she has to find some improvement but she looks to be well on course. At just over 10/1 a place being offered seems more than reasonable.

    Surprised to see the above! I definitely make Ribchester the class horse.

    @formtheory As I said I was surprised Ribchester wasn't the class horse. But have to say I was more than happy to see Cougar Mountain running his best race for a long time. Watching the orange and blue striped cap starting to close on the field had me getting more than a little excited, all this at around 80/1 . Fair enough it didn't make the frame but it showed to me anyway it was in the race trying to win, and that is more than can be said for some.

    Be Lucky
     
    formtheory likes this.
  12. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto well done with Zhui Feng.
     
  13. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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  14. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Very Nice Result @mtoto and well deserved :handgestures-thumbup:
     
  15. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ascot 3:05 1 Benbatl 2 Mucho Applause 3 Grey Britain
    Ascot 3:40 1 Naughty Or Nice 2 Mori 3 Alluringly
    Ascot 4:20 1 Sheikhzayedroad 2 Order Of St George 3 Sweet Selection
    Ascot 5:00 1 Afaak 2 Leaders Legacy 3 Sabador
    Ascot 5:35 1 Drochaid 2 Sofia's Rock 3 Homesman

    Probables
    Ascot 3:05 1 Grey Britain 2 Speedo Boy 3 Mucho Applause
    Ascot 3:40 1 Naughty Or Nice 2 Mori 3 Apphia
    Ascot 4:20 1Sweet Selection 2 Order Of St George 3 Simple Verse
    Ascot 5:00 1 Afaak 2 Leaders Legacy 3 Sabador
    Ascot 5:35 1 Drochaid 2 Homesman 3 Master Singer

    3:05 This seems to have a few who were considered good enough to run in classics but very few of them have the figures to back that thinking up. Benbatl is one who has and I make him the class horse, and for him to not be classified as a consistent horse is a little harsh. 5th in the derby and close up 5th at that is not to be sneezed at!! But the price stops any chance of a bet for me. One that has caught my eye is Mucho Applause an improving unexposed horse who can handle right handed stiff courses . Yes, on the figures he has plenty to find but the trainer must know that, but is still prepared to endanger his hcp mark with a good run. Mucho Applause small win and loaded place to 4th.
    4:20 Did have a look at Sheikhzayedroad but decided against.
    3:40 &5:00 full of unexposed 3year olds that have still to prove they are capable of earning an entry on the d/base. Have had doubts I'm expecting too much, but when I look there are some very low class horse that have achieve an entry. Maidens, and runners from class 5 hcps included.
    5:35 Drochaid class horse (just) from two Mark Johnston horses one of whom D has recorded a victory over. Although the actual figures are very tight I do believe D has the strongest form and the class difference is bigger than shown. Drochaid small win loaded place

    Be Lucky
     
  16. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ascot 3:05 1 Crystal Ocean 2 Permian 3 Best Of Days
    Ascot 5:00 1 Time To Study 2 Stradivarius 3 Belgravia
    Ascot 5:35 1 Star Storm 2 Wadigor 3 Mistiroc

    Probables
    Ascot 3:05 1 Best Of Days 2 Crystal Ocean 3 Call To Mind
    Ascot 5:00 1 Time To Study 2 Wisconsin 3 Alqamar
    Ascot 5:35 1 Wadigor 2 Cape Cova 3 Mainstream


    3:05 Prices on the top two ranked are very tight and the profile on the likely favourite doesn't do much for me. I have to wonder why they think he will perform on a stiff track and Permian does at least have proven and winning form on a stiff track. Personally I never thought he was good enough to run in the Derby let alone be a bet, so for me Crystal Ocean's chances are based on the trainer rather than the horse. If forced to bet I think I would side with Best Of Days although the stable hasn't fired at this meeting. The entry in the Irish Derby is of interest and that is backed up by the winning form has been on stiff courses, the fly in the ointment is, is this a prep for that Irish race. No bet.
    5:00 Another race full of three year olds and only one has an entry on the d/base. After what I said about these races on Wednesday (one qualifier in a race gives good returns) I ignored that logic yesterday and missed a 9/1 winner. But after looking at this race from many angles I just can't see Mister Manduro returning a profit. Yes the trainer has a very good record at this meeting and I don't think he has had a winner so far I can't see any future in backing this horse. No bet
    5:35 Have to admit this race has completely confused me, not the result of the workings, but the simple fact I seem to have missed Star Storm's last race. The main surprise is this is a horse I had noted to look out for on a stiff track on firm going, must be getting old!!! :confused: However I haven't missed him today and rate him as the class horse, he fails a little on consistency but even then it is by one place and that can be forgiven when the race is watched he has the conditions need to confirm his best and that was on this course in a higher class race than today's. Ignore that one point or forgive it and he is the class form horse and it does look as if this was/is the target. Interesting jockey booking. Star Storm straight e/w bet

    Be Lucky
     
  17. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ascot 3:05 1 Ayrad 2 Elbereth 3 Dragon Mall
    Ayr 3:30 1 Spring Offensive 2 Finn Class 3 Candelisa
    Ascot 3:40 1 Dartmouth 2 Western Hymn 3 Idaho
    Ascot 5:35 1 Fun Mac 2 Us Army Ranger 3 Thomas Hobson

    Probables
    Ascot 3:05 1Khairaat 2 Mythical Madness 3 Kidmeneverl
    Ayr 3:30 1 Nicholas T 2 Sophie P 3 Finn Class
    Ascot 3:40 1 Dartmouth 2 Dal Harraild 3 Western Hymn
    Ascot 5:35 1 Thomas Hobson 2 Qewy 3 Medburn Cutler


    3:05 A classy hcp with no less than seven runners with proven form in the same or higher class. Of these I have Ayrad as the class horse with Elbereth a joint second best but the most consistent of the higher rated horses. As this is Ayrad's first run of the season I do wonder if this is a prep for York although his best form to-date has been on a stiff course. Trainer has to be respected but the draw is a worry along with the question mark re race fitness. While the draw is also a worry for Elbereth there is no worry re fitness. If anything the worry with her it has to be has/is she being asked too much with her recent runs and is there anything left in the locker? As I'm going with a small win loaded place on her I will have to trust the trainer on that.
    3:30 Because Kentuckyconnection is the clear class horse and seems to be well out of form I'm leaving the race alone. Yes Kentuckyconnection may well have been flattered by his figures, but before I make up my mind I will wait a little longer and just watch
    3:40 All of Dartmouth's entries on the d/base bar one have been achieved over this distance at Ascot so I'm not taking him on even though the price is far to tight to interest me. The same can be said about Western Hymn' liking for Ascot but he isn't that reliable and the place price isn't worth taking a chance. No bet
    5:35 Only two runners have an entry on the d/base in a higher class race. Of these Us Army Ranger is just the class horse, but Fun Mac has the strongest last time out form. Us Army Ranger's best figures have been scored on "speed" tracks and that seems to be the requirement to achieve his best. Fun Mac's have been scored on stiff course both times and although he can handle the flatter tracks, stiff seems to be the favoured way to go. Because of the trainer/connections Thomas Hobson has to be respected but if this was another trainer I would just put a line through him. Yes it was all looked very easy but how much did it take out of the horse, and I don't think anyone will know until after the race. I find it hard to believe they went into the first race with this being the plan after the win. That win was good enough to gain him an entry on the d/base but shows he needs plenty of improvement class wise. Fun Mac small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
    Graeme likes this.
  18. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Car 4:00 1 Isabel's On It 2 Bletchley 3 Aurora Butterfly
    Sal 4:40 1 Examiner 2 Storm Rock 3 Kingston Kurrajong

    Probables
    Car 4:00 1 Isabel's On It 2 Bletchley 3 Aurora Butterfly
    Sal 4:40 1 Morning Suit 2 Examiner 3 White Tower


    4:00 As none of these have an entry on the d/base the ranking are based purely on the probability figures. The prices of two of the top rated are of no interest and Aurora Butterfly's entry in the Irish Oaks is a bit of a head scratcher, the horse is race fit and this is a very unusual looking prep race. If pushed I would have to side with Bletchley as he does have form on a stiff course on this going. No bet.
    4:40 Can't work up any enthusiasm for anything in this. In fact it is the sort of race I'm seriously thinking of dropping. The place prize isn't worth risking a rise in OR so how many will be ridden out for a place?

    Be Lucky
     
    markfinn likes this.
  19. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Chest 2:55 1 Atteq 2 Starlight Romance 3 Wahash
    York 3:05 1 Emenem 2 Defoe 3 Meteor Light
    Newm3:15 1 Home Of The Brave 2 Richard Pankhurst 3 Breton Rock
    Wind 3:55 1 What About Carlo 2 Great Hall 3 Stockhill Diva

    Probables
    Chest 2:55 1 Starlight Romance 2 Wahash 3 Lualiwa
    York 3:05 1 Meteor Light 2 The Statesman 3 Defoe
    Newm3:15 1 Home Of The Brave 2 Ifwecan 3 Thikriyaat
    Wind 3:55 1 Stockhill Diva 2 Jacob Cats 3 Plutocracy


    Only the 3:05 had any initial interest for me today. One runner with proven form in a higher class with only one other with reasonable class form just a little lower in class. However after looking at the form I'm getting very mixed messages. Emenem the class horse seems to favour courses like Epsom and the all weather, can he overcome this on the softer going that is likely. Plus the cross check says he has a little something to find. Defoe should be able to handle the going and track and the cross check looks ok for him. Apart from the price the ridden out is a slight negative, but it was his first race of the season. With the obvious danger along with the strongest probable Meteor Light the price on D is far to short for me .
    Nothing today and that is a crying shame as the Pitman's Derby is a race I have had quite a few nice touches. Archduke Ferdinand was just about the first winner I put up on a forum. Don't understand why they decided there needed to be more all weather racing and take a top class hcp out of play for me.

    Be Lucky
     
    dave58 likes this.
  20. mtoto

    mtoto Gelding

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    Ham 3:30 1 Highland Colori 2 Nicholas T 3 Gulf Of Poets.

    Probables
    Ham 3:30 1 Gulf Of Poets. 2 Nicholas T 3 Ionization


    3:30 At first glance this is the class of race I'm looking to cut out, however the place prize money isn't too bad. I have only two runners with proven form in a higher class, Highland Colori being the class horse . The course, going, and distance should be no problem and age looks to be the only obvious negative. While I do think he stands a good chance of at least making the frame and showing a fair return his age has to be a problem. I have to ask is he there as company for the 2 year old that runs in the previous race, and the dangers have to be the in form, unexposed horses. Nicholas T the second best probable (notice I made a mistake in a couple of e-mails and said Nicholas T was the strongest) :doh: Sorry!! has something to find class wise as he has never run against horse with the class of figures he is meeting today. While Ayr isn't a particularly easy course it is nowhere as stiff as Hamilton and the has to be a question mark against the going. I rate Gulf Of Poets a bigger danger as he does have winning form on the course and going even then it does ask major questions of him class wise. Also while it can be argued both are unexposed they both are 5 year olds with plenty of runs behind them and they still haven't returned figures good enough to register on the d/base. Highland Colori small win loaded place, but here the win will be even smaller than usual as a place is the aim here.
    Be Lucky
     

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