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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Hay 2:05 1 Mister Manduro 2 Cribbs Causeway 3 Humble Hero
Sand 2:25 1 Gm Hopkins 2 Master The World 3 Naval Warfare
Hay 3:15 1 Carntop 2 Brorocco 3 Baydar
Sand 3:35 1 Lightning Spear 2 Eminent 3 Barney Roy
Hay 5:00 1 Aljuljalah 2 Roman Holiday 3 Bint Arcano

Probables
Hay 2:05 1 Cribbs Causeway 2 Humble Hero 3 Zenon
Sand 2:25 1 Naval Warfare 2 Greenside 3 Manson
Hay 3:15 1 Big Country 2 Toulson 3 Kapstadt
Sand 3:35 1Barney Roy 2 Cliffs Of Moher 3 Decorated Knight
Hay 5:00 1 Roman Holiday 2 Bint Arcano 3 Aljuljalah


Two races that look possible to find a profit in/from.

2:25 Master The World was a saver bet for me at Ascot in June and the reason I wasn't particularly happy with him for that was the straight course, today there is a bend and that could suit him better. I make him the class horse and one of the six with proven form in a higher class. He only fails to be the class horse with the best recent form by a short head. To be honest I know nothing/very little about the young apprentice booked to ride him but a quick look at the trainer s he has been ridding for suggest he isn't there to make up the numbers. It maybe just splitting hairs but I do think the most likely danger on the figures Gm Hopkins is better on straight courses. Naval Warfare gains his ranking by being the strongest probable but class wise has plenty to find. He is only a three year old and has plenty of time to find the improvement. The stiff course, going and distance should be no problem IF he can act in this class. Out of the three year olds I would be happier to side with Rusumaat but the bet is Master The World small win loaded place.
3:15 Carntop is one of the four horses with proven form in the same or higher class and I make his recent form the best of these. He was a bet for me at Epsom and have to say I didn't really feel he was put in the race to win at any time, race comments seem to offer excuses but even after the pick up I still felt it was a prep race to see if he was over his injury. His best form has been on undulating courses so far. Brorocco just fails to be one of the four and he is another that has produced his best on undulating course but unlike Carntop the cross check raises doubts. Baydar is the class horse but seems to have lost the way. Excuses can be made for the last couple of runs as the course and going didn't favour him, but the going is still a problem today. Carntop small win loaded place.

Much as I like Eminent and think this really is the right race for him I'm giving him a miss as I just couldn't get a reasonable price about him :mad:

Be Lucky
 
Newm 1:50 1 Raheen House 2 Wolf Country 3 Atty Persse
Newm 5:05 1 Larchmont Lad 2 D'bai 3 Ronald R

Probables

Newm 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 Raheen House 3 Wolf Country
Newm 5:05 1 Ronald R 2 D'bai 3 Tricorn


Nothing here for me today as the prices on offer match the rating too closely for there to be much value.

1:50 As Atty Persse the likely favourite doesn't to date hold an entry on the b/base I thought there might be some value on offer, but the next two in the ratings are to short to be of real interest. Atty looks to have a right hand bias but the stiff course should be ok. He could well win this but for me his price is really off putting, plus the fact he is going up against two horses with proven form in higher class . On my figures Raheen House is improving and the stiff course should hold no fears. As said before the price is too tight for me. Wolf Country another who is improving but with him there are a couple of question marks re going and and course, nothing major but still questions that haven't been asked before. That is a big difference to being asked the question after failing in the past. Again I would want a better price to be asking those question with money on the line. No bet
5:05 Again a no bet race. Before I had even seen the s/f I had marked Ronald R down as a horse to look out for, but I wasn't thinking about a race quite like this, more a top class hcp. As he hasn't made the d/base I do wonder if the official handicapper has slightly flatter him with the rise in his OR. If a big hcp is the target a win here would not be a help, and while Larchmont Lad is the class horse I think D'bai is a bigger danger.

Be Lucky
 
Newm 1:50 1 Fawaareq 2 Parfait 3 War Glory
Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Leshlaa 3 Atkinson Grimshaw

Probables
Newm 1:50 1 Makzeem 2 Brigliadoro 3 Fawaareq
Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Atkinson Grimshaw 3 Daawy


So many meetings and very little to interest me betting wise.

1:50 as a betting medium I don't like these consolation races as one can never be quite sure if the top weights were really being aimed at the real thing with a lower weight. This race today is quite a classy affair with six horse with proven form in higher class races and another three only just under the bench mark. I have joint top on class, Fawaareq and War Glory with Suzi's Connoisseur breathing down their necks. Fawaareq ticks many of the box's course, distance etc and is versatile going wise. Reads as if this is a target and the only/main thing that putts me of is the price on offer. The course doesn't look quite right for War Glory as his best to-date has been on flat "speed" courses. Suzi's Connoisseur has looked to be one of the unluckiest horses in training the amount of times he has been hampered in the closing stages. He has run well in this race before but I do feel perhaps his chance has pasted him by. In saying that the conditions are just about right for him stiff 7f on good/firm going. All this and still we have to consider Parfait, this young improving horse is the best of the higher rated horses based on recent form, and is joint top rated only losing out on count back. The stiff course should be no problem and the seven looks fair enough. My worry with him is this is a quick(ish) return to the track after two/three possibly hard races and until they get back on the track nobody knows what has been taken out of them. I don't ever mind taking on a big/dangerous field but the price of the selection has to be worth the risk and here I don't feel the price truly reflects Fawaareq's chances. No BET
3:00 Only one runner has an entry on the d/base and even he is going up in class. Only Atkinson Grimshaw is of interest of the top three, with the prices on offer, and much as I like the trainer I'm surprised he is running on this course I would have thought York would suit better if he really is fit and ready. Think this could well be a prep and will look out for him if he does anything that looks a bit interesting. NO bet
Another blank day but Saturday is just around the corner and that looks full of possibilities.

Be Lucky
 
York 1:55 1 First Selection 2 Chiefofchiefs 3 Constantino
Newm 2:15 1 Tropical Rock 2 Alouja 3 On Her Toes
Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Afaak 3 City Of Joy
Chest 3:00 1 Jungle Cat 2 Jallota 3 Kool Kompany
York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Mistiroc 3 Victory Bond
Newm 3:25 1 Tashweeq 2 Gossiping 3 Tony Curtis
Ascot 5:00 1 Bin Battuta 2 Cape Coast 3 Special Relation

Probables
York 1:55 1 Chiefofchiefs 2 Constantino 3 Twin Appeal
Newm 2:15 1 On Her Toes 2Inshiraah 3 Alouja
Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Hajaj 3 Afaak
Chest 3:00 1 Orangey Red 2Viscount Barfield 3 Jungle Cat
York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Victory Bond 3 Ballet Concerto
Newm 3:25 1 Gossiping 2 Flaming Spear 3 Robero
Ascot 5:00 1 Cape Coast 2 Special Relation 3 Galactic Prince


1:50 The main reason I looked at this race is the class figures for First Selection, then I was quite intrigued by the campaign the trainer was following. For all the world it looks like prep races, but is it for this race or the Goodwood entry? Personally I think this should be the target as I can't see any reason Goodwood would suit better. Both of the next two in the rankings have plenty to find class wise and at four years old and with a few runs under their belts still haven't managed to register an entry on the d/base. As there are a couple of doubts re First Selection time since last win (although his figures are not that old) and perhaps the going a small win loaded place to half stakes is the play.
3:05 Have to admit this race has me puzzled and I have read a few trends columns that giveSnoano no or very little chance. For me the form/profile just doesn't agree. As his best figures were gained at Ascot I did wonder if he needed a stiff course toperform but he does having winning form at this course. I make him the best recent form horse with proven form in the same or higher class and there are nine of these to choose from. Victory Bond is one of those nine and I make him a big danger and his figures were scored on this course but his trainer is well known for liking York and the price reflects this Snoano small win loaded place.
3:25 Another top hcp and once again the prices on offer about the top few in the rankings are too tight for me. The one exception here is Tony Curtis and I make him the class horse today.He achieved his figures on a stiff course, but not sure if he can handle a straight course . Because of this the bet is small win loaded place to half stakes.

Be Lucky
 
Newb 1:50 1 Remarkable 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2 Skiffle 3 Apphia
Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Master The World 3 Highland Colori
Rip 4:05 1 Sennockian Star 2 Mukhayyam 3 Fleeting Visit

Probables
Newb 1:50 1 Realize 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2God Given 3 Gallifrey
Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Masham Star 3 Ballard Down
Rip 4:05 1 Mukhayyam 2 Fleeting Visit 3 Sennockian Star


1:50 Prices reflect the ranking leaving little or no value. Remarkable is the class horse and the only runner with proven form in the same or higher class. Problem with him is for me two fold, first his best seems to be kept for Ascot and then the jockey trainer combination usually lead to a shorter price than the form warrants. There has to be a question mark against Rusumaat re the going as well as having something to find class wise. Straight Right's ranking is down to his probable score and after only one run in England very hard to get a true line on. Many questions that need answering the main one is will he be able to handle the different running style of the British racing? As he was outclassed his last race told/showed us nothing of any value. Non bet
2:40 Of the top three in the ratings only Skiffle has an entry in the d/base and before I could even consider her I would need to see something to show she was over her injury. Again no bet.
3:50 Classiest race of the day for me with five runners with proven form in higher class than today's race. I have Master The World as the class horse by some distance, I also make him the horse with the best recent form from these five. His consistency figures let him down but I do make his last three runs over this distance as form runs. I do have a slight doubt about his ability to produce his very best on a straight course. As I have the same doubts about Examiner I'm reasonably happy to take the fact that Examiner was beaten over a straight course by Master The World as proof in this race of the two MTW will/can be good enough today. After looking at the prices I have decided to back both Master The World and Examiner to win and forget the place aspect as the place prices are a little tight.
4:05 Of these Sennockian Star is the clear class horse but the figures are starting to get quite old. While I can see his recent figures are some way below his old mark they are still good enough to make him the class horse here. I can't find anything to take him on but I can't/don't trust him to put in a performance that even the recent figures suggest No bet

Great place bet with TC

@pinemarten Glad to see you are still around. Yes I was quite happy with Tony Curtis for me it just goes to show the general public/punters don't know it all and some nice prices can be found if one goes looking for them. I know First Selection didn't show a return but he was right in the action in the last furlong and only beaten just over a length again at a nice price 33/1 I was told many years ago no one could find big priced winners every day but they can't ever be found if you only follow the market. Re the probables even though they come from the very basic stats they are good enough as a stand alone method. I still 100% convinced this is how VDW found some of his winners, the ones that the ability rating whatever one was used, didn't find /high light.
Still can't see the point of having a first picture if a second one just ignores the first, or goes off at a completely different tangent. I live in hopes the someone will give me a sensible answer to that question. Surely the point of having a second picture is to highlight any possible flaws in the first one, other wise it is just a second method/idea not picture ?

Be Lucky
 
Can I ask you was it a form run the VDW way or was it a run to ignore the VDW way? I think the latter.

@Nellsman Re the Ekbalco question. I know the question wasn't aimed at me but for peace of mind I keep away from the thread you asked the question on. Can I ask why you think that last run had to be a form run? Personally I think it is just another of the myths that have been brought by others into the methods. Consistency and form are two different elements and for me Ekbalco had both, he was consistent i.e one of the six lowest for consistency based on his form figures, in the forecast , and had shown he had the form/ability. Fair enough VDW did later give examples where the last run was the key but there was NO mention of consistency involved in it.

There was a chap who used the user name of Nellsman on another forum is that you? If so hello again, how you getting on with the puzzle? I would suggest you don't take too much notice of folk who say they have cracked it but still refuse to give up to date selections, talk is cheap when nothing can be proven one way or another.

Be Lucky
 
I do not recall the Ekbalco example but am assuming a poor run Lto.? When faced with this frequent occurrence then we punters have the option of digging deeper to seek what i call a VE Valid Excuse ,and sometimes this can be gleaned.Often the positive will then be points on the price.

Many years ago when i was investigating the vdw methods one change i made was to form the basic consistency rating from the best two of the past three runs and i found this fig just as helpful on balance as the recommended past three all in.

VEs can be simple - obvious or a more difficult time consuming find but i will share a true story from my early days which illustrates the obvious (with hindsight).I backed one at Ascot which i considered to be a good thing ,in truth staking more than i should have done.It fin 5th ! and i was left feeling bemused.This was > 40yrs ago and we punters where not so well informed during those times.

Months later i was reading about a famous past race horse who was only beaten once and the writer suggested the cause was racing RH.I thought of my loser and on checking the same applied.Now the funny part ,i bought a stop watch and got a mate to time me doing laps of the local running track and my times running anti clockwise where consistently better than the opposite.

Over the years if nothing else this knowledge has enabled me to swerve what would have been losing wagers,but more importantly when it can be evidenced as a probable VE for a poor Lto run has resulted in some very good value winning bets.These days i suspect that this example would appear obvious to any backer who treats there betting seriously but there are many others less overt which can be found if you are willing to implement the most important part of the VDW formula.........Hard Work.

An additional thought............The biggest step forward in my punting knowledge was to read a book written by Paul Major which i bought several years before the first VDW letters where published.Anyone reading it will realize that many of the ways are not dissimilar.

Major offered a way of creating a first look numerical picture via awarding points with perhaps the most significant being 50pts for a drop in class ,but when it came to consistency judged on the three most recent runs his scoring was 30pts for a win 10pts for a 2nd and 5pts for a 3rd.If you ponder this he is adding points for positive runs but not subtracting any for negative runs.
 
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@Nellsman

From the only thread on this site where if a certain member does not like your post/ does not agree with your views, they get deleted.

PACK UP FOR A WHILE IF YOU ARE NOT GETTING BETTING RIGHT

Apparently this is VDW without any doubt.

I would disagree, it reads to me who ever really did write the letter was having a pop at the readers and Raceform. Because of the many pops it reads more of frustration then of actually cracking it like a old fashioned safe cracker.

Arkle
 
PACK UP FOR A WHILE IF YOU ARE NOT GETTING BETTING RIGHT
this letter generated a lot of interest if i rememebr right, j bingham wrote with his examples, of the said methods also mg of kent sent in his examples many on the lines of j binghams selections..
 
PACK UP FOR A WHILE IF YOU ARE NOT GETTING BETTING RIGHT
this letter generated a lot of interest if i rememebr right, j bingham wrote with his examples, of the said methods also mg of kent sent in his examples many on the lines of j binghams selections..
Jock Bingham committed suicide after failing as a Private VDW Tipping Service
 
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Hi @mtoto.
VDW said that the class/form horse was the one to look for. I first raised the question in regard to Mark of Esteem, There is no way that I can make MOE a form horse. Ekbalco was put to me by Boba, I presume as a similar VDW example. For me, there is no similarity whatever between MOE and Ekbalco. By this I mean that as far as I can see (that may be no further than the end of my nose), MOE failed very badly in a race that he should have performed better. Whereas Ekbalco was a blatant prep run (to use your terminology). Years ago Fulham explained to me that a horse could be forgiven a bad run if it was put into a class that it had not previously ran in (VDW's way of assessing form vis a vis Gaye Chance). And that there were circumstances where a run could be ignored (a prime example is Ekbalco). But I cannot see anyway to excuse Mark Of Esteem. In my view this gives credence to @Chesham argument that the results were back fitted. However, I could be wrong, maybe there is a way that MOE's last run is a form run (Hedgehog makes it a form run his way), and I have to acknowledge that I don't know everything the VDW way.
I am the Nellsman that you speak of and I have to say that I am very pleased to be able to talk to you again. Talk is cheap, but I have been reading your blog and in your case, you put your money where your mouth is, we may have had our disagreements in the past but the proof of the pudding is in the eating and I have to say that your results have been nothing short of exceptional.

thanks and regards
Nellsman
 
Hi @mick,
you are right of course there are many valid reasons for a horse running poorly and it can be difficult at times to determine the cause of a poor run. VDW did cover this aspect with his capability part of the equation. I don't think that he ever went into it in any depth other than to mention that a horse needs softer or better going
or the distance being wrong or that the track did not suit. I suppose at the end of the day it comes down to common sense. Mtoto I think is very knowledgeable about course characteristics and if any given horse is likely to be suited to a certain type of course. This is not an area that I have any expertise in but it is logical to be aware that some horses go better right handed than left handed and vice versa. With jumpers this is sometimes easy to spot a horse jumping to the right or left but it's not so easy on the flat.

regards
Nellsman.
 
hi Arkle55,
you could be correct, I have no idea if VDW wrote that letter or not. I haven't looked at the selections given in that letter at any depth so could not give a view on it either way.
I remember when Fulham told us that VDW was in fact G Hall. I felt cheated that I had wasted all of the time that I had spent on trying to unravel the VDW puzzle. It would seem on the surface that the man was a fantasist but there is a paradox, if it is true that people like Lee and others who have made claims on this forum that the methods are successful when fully understood. This does not seem to me to make any sense at all. If the methodology was as auspicious as these people claim surely VDW should have been a very wealthy man. I just don't get it at all.

regards
Nellsman
 
There is no way that I can make MOE a form horse.

@Nellsman I can only take it the above statement is based purely on the horses last run as before that he clearly had/was the form horse in the race. I can't speak for Bobba but it looks to me the only reason Ekbalco was brought into the conversation was because he also had failed in his last race. For me this was for very different reasons Ekbalco was being prepped for a return to the course where he had achieved his best performance to date and a penalty wouldn't have been a a help (in the trainers mind). Re MOE looking at his profile I can't really see any reason to seriously fore see his defeat before the race, but after I can see a possible reason for it . His best performance had been on a straight course and while he had winning form around a bend that form was some way below his best based on s/f and as pointed out by Chesham.

To be honest I haven't seriously researched these races as I had, and still do have serious doubts about the author really being VDW . Have to admit the doubt is based more on the wording and terminology/phrasing of that particular posting. I have long lost my copies of the Handicap book, but I would love to know if Mr Peach was advertising or just about to advertise a new booklet or reissue some of the older material. Just like Mr Halls article was it only there to drum up interest that was starting to flag a little. There can be no doubt Mr Peach didn't hesitate to drum up publicity and muddy the waters by getting folk who didn't really have a clue about what was being shown.!! If only he knew he didn't have to waste his time, there are still more than a few who are still at it, muddying the waters that is :acute:

Be Lucky
 
Ascot 2:45 1 Mister Manduro 2 Mark Hopkins 3 Uae King
Ascot 3:20 1 Golden Stunner 2 Mittens 3 Pirouette
Ascot 3:55 1 Noble Gift 2 Sennockian Star 3 Appeared

Probables
Ascot 2:45 1 Uae King 2 Desert God 3 Mark Hopkins
Ascot 3:20 1 Mittens 2 Tisbutadream 3 Whispering Bell
Ascot 3:55 1 Appeared 2 Sennockian Star 3 Noble Gift

2:45 Nothing for me as the prices on two are too tight and match the ratings the other horse has it all to do although he does have a entry on the d/base. That entry was gained on a stiff right handed course so he can't be ignored, but class wise has plenty to find based on his most recent performances. No bet.
3:20 again the prices on the top two are to tight for me. Only Pirouette is a price that would interest me but she does seem to prefer good going on a stiff course. She does have the stiff course today but the going isn't likely to be firm enough. It also reads she had a hard race 17 days ago on unsuitable going, how much did that take out of her? No bet.
3:55 Noble Gift catches my eye as he also has an entry at Goodwood on Tuesday and goes in this. He scored his best figures at Goodwood so this is interesting. The going looks to have come right for him. His biggest danger on the figures is our old friend Sennockian Star who does look to be finding some of his old form, while he does like Ascot and softer going I still have trouble trusting him. Noble Gift small win loaded place.

Be Lucky