• This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn more.
  • Hi Guest
    I have made some behind the scenes changes.
    I have found and hopefully fixed a problem that stopped members uploading files.
    Please let me know if you spot any other problems like not being able to view threads that you could previously.
  • Hi Guest, The forum software has been updated!
    Please let me know if you spot anything that isn't working as expected.
    I hope you find your way around OK!!!
    Have a great Christmas Guest.
    Best Wishes
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for any problems caused to those that were trying to access the forum earlier today

    There was an authentication issue between the webservers and the database servers we are on!
    Many Thanks to those that emailed me to let tme know of the issue.

    AR

VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Newb 2:25 1 Jameson 2 Space Oddity 3 Vibrato Valtat
Newb 3:35 1 Forza Milan 2 Hello George 3 Boyhood

Probables
Newb 2:25 1 Ridgeway Flyer 2 Willie Boy 3 Jameson
Newb 3:35 1 Boyhood 2 Hello George 3 This Is It

2:25 Jameson clear second best on class as it stands, has proven form in a higher class . Plus factor is the top rated class wise Vibrato Valtat seems to have lost his way completely. Jameson's change of stable perhaps was to give him a better chance of being a stable star and possibly a regular jockey. If Vibrato Valtat can find his form he could be a very big danger as here he is only taking on novices in the top rankings. This course looks more suitable than his last couple of runs and the one before that can have a line put straight through it. Have to admit I was tempted but decided to wait and see. Space Oddity has a fair bit to find class wise, and much as I like the trainer I do think this is above his class ceiling, the horse not the trainer.
3:35 Forza Milan one of only two with proven form in the same or higher class, both are improving. Whataknight the other horse scored his figures on this course but has a little something to find class wise. Forza Milan seems quite versatile re course, and the going should suit. In fact the only thing I don't like is the price. Whataknight is a fair bit older and more experienced but has only won two one being a novice hurdle and neither made the d/base. He has only managed that the once and those figures leave him a little out of it. I did have a second look at him mainly because of the jockey a name I'm not sure about. However he did ride the horse on his last run, and has ridden him before.
Boyhood has his ranking purely on his probable mark being the strongest. Nearly impossible to get an accurate reading of his form as he is so unexposed. Young enough to improve good trainer /jockey combination and for me good enough to stop any bet.

Just a quick thank for the best wishes. Personally I don't think it is anything really serious, just old age and a misspent youth catching up with me. The smoking, drinking and fighting just had to leave a mark and that is without the rugby and trips to Southend to meet the mods :rofl:

Be Lucky
 
Newb 1:20 1 On Tour 2 Gold Present 3 Warriors Tale
Newb 1:50 1 Old Guard 2 Court Minstrel 3 Air Horse One
Newb 3:00 1 Coneygree 2 Double Ross 3 American
Newc 3:20 1 Wakanda 2 Yala Enki 3 Sam Red
Newb 3:35 1 Just Cameron 2 Baby King 3 Theinval,

Probables
Newb 1:20 1 On Tour 2 Gold Present 3 Gentleman Jon
Newb 1:50 1 Jabulani 2 Court Minstrel 3 Master Dancer
Newb 3:00 1 American 2 A Genie In Abottle 3 Whisper
Newc 3:20 1 Sam Red 2 Yala Enki 3 Our Kaempfer
Newb 3:35 1 Baby King 2 Greybougg 3 Dream Bolt


1:20 On Tour close second best class wise, and course looks suitable. Comes out well on recent form and recent run just about gives him the edge as the going shouldn't be a problem. The only problem with all the highest ranked is the price making this a no bet race for me but some do like the shorter priced horses. Gold Present is the class horse but hasn't had a run this season. Flat " speed" course no problem but trainer jockey combo not helpful in getting a realistic price. Warriors Tale, this is his course and distance, but has more than a little to find class wise. No Bet
1:50 I have been working on this race all week and still can't decide.The major problem for me is all three of the ranked horses are horses I have ear marked to look out for this season. Old Guard I fully expect him to win a good race this season, and I had Cheltenham marked down for him and Air Horse One so I do have my doubts about Newbury being a real target. A quick look at Old Guard's profile is the main reason I earmarked Cheltenham for him, and I do wonder if he is the right ride for his jockey as he can hit a flat spot. Air Horse One was my ante post bet for the Greatwood but the trainer went with his other runner. Again the profile suggest Cheltenham or at least a stiff course is needed to show his best. Court Minstrel much as I like this horse he seldom puts good runs back to back, and I think this older horse needs an undulating course now, to show his best. Of the three I favour Air Horse One to come out best in this but the price to far too tight for me, so I will just watch with great interest and look forward to the festival.
3:00 this has been a good race for me in the past and today I'm sticking with Coneygree. He has always reminded me of Denman and I think he can do a Denman today. I know he is a year older than that horse when he last won it, and the stats most probably say he is too old, but when has a 10 year old with this class run in the race, I would guess not for a very long time. I say sticking as he is my ante post bet for this made some time ago before his pulled up run. However with this stable that doesn't bother me as this horse is treated more like a pet than a race horse, and if they thought he had damaged himself he wouldn't be here today. Of the other ranked horses I fear American most. Young improving horse if a little fragile and ground dependant but that may have come right for him. On my figures he has plenty to find class wise as I make his best was in a novice event on a stiff course. Double Ross scored his figures in this race last season but I would be very surprised if he could repeat or even get close to that performance today. Just
leaving the ante post bet as is.
3:20 Everything to tight price wise for me
3:35 Just Cameron the class horse and the only runner with proven form in a higher class. Stable in form and course suitable. Just Cameron small win loaded place. Although there isn't much detail I did spend some time going through this race but it takes far to long to type and concentrate at times

Be Lucky
 
Aint 1:30 1 Blaklion 2 The Last Samuri 3 Goodtoknow
Sand 1:10 1 Connetable 2 Sam Red 3 Monbeg Oscar
Sand 2:20 1 Unison 2 Caid Du Lin 3 Man Of Plenty
Chep 2:45 1 Bob Ford 2 Binge Drinker 3 Buywise
Aint 3:10 1 Sametegal 2 Captain Redbeard 3 Ultragold
Sand 3:30 1 Houblon Des Obeaux 2 The Happy Chappy 3 Doing Fine

Probables
Aint 1:30 1Federici 2 Blaklion 3 Westerner Point
Sand 1:10 1 Sam Red 2 Monbeg Oscar 3 Beat That
Sand 2:20 1 Unison 2 Man Of Plenty 3 Caid Du Lin
Chep 2:45 1 Binge Drinker 2 Wild West Wind 3 Streets Of Promise
Aint 3:10 1 Sametegal 2 Arctic Gold 3 Captain Redbeard
Sand 3:30 1 The Happy Chappy 2 Houblon Des Obeaux 3 Dancing Shadow

1:30 Shaping up to be a cracking race but very little if any value in the prices. Blaklion and The Last Samuri both have proven form on the course but both will be aimed at the national and I do have doubts about The Last Samuri being given too hard a race on this ground. With the Blaklion the price is far too tight and who knows what this trainer is thinking, he thinks most of his horses like himself can walk on water!! A watching race only.
1:10 A qualifying race for the Pretemps so a race to pass on.
2:20 Unison an improving horse with the type of profile I like, a none face trainer, and a nice price. This horse looks to have a quite serious right hand bias best form so far has been on flater courses but does have winning form on a stiff course all be it in a slightly lower class race. Caid Du Lin was second to the selection last time out but has serious worries (for me ) re going and course type. Man Of Plenty more than a little surprised this horse makes the top three can't really see him even getting placed. Unison small win loaded place.
2:45 Off the top three only Buywise is anywhere near an interesting price, and to be honest even his price is too tight when the actual horse is looked at in any depth. He is without doubt the class horse but so many silly/careless mistakes and if Paul Moloney couldn't sort him out I don't think it is possible. Bob Ford and the Binge Drinker are both to tight price wise for me, the Binge Drinker's price based mainly on connections . When I look at this horse I see a hype horse that has only novice form and if they are serious about him why would they risk blowing chances for a pittance like today's prize money?
3:10 I have Ultragold as the class horse but he fails on basic consistency, that said three of the races that destroy his consistency figures are on unsuitable stiff courses The heavy going stops any bet on any of the top three for me.
3:30 It is a long time since Houblon Des Obeaux put back to back wins together and as he is the only horse being offered at a reasonable price I'm giving this a miss. However I did have a long look at Dancing Shadow trained by another underrated trainer.

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 1:20 1 Sire De Grugy 2 Gino Trail 3 Bun Doran
Don 1:40 1 Flying Tiger 2 Mohaayed 3 Irish Roe
Chelt 1:55 1 Clan Des Obeaux 2 Romain De Senam 3 Foxtail Hill
Don 3:20 1 Vibrato Valtat 2 Sego Success 3 Virgilio
Chelt 3:40 1 Momella 2 Brillare Momento 3 Rons Dream

Probables
Chelt 1:20 1 Theo 2 Gino Trail 3 Pearls Legend
Don 1:40 1 Irish Roe 2 Star Foot 3 William Of Orange
Chelt 1:55 1 Clan Des Obeaux 2 Deauville Dancer 3 Starchitect
Don 3:20 1 Sego Success 2 Solstice Son3 Ballybolley
Chelt 3:40 1 Lady Karina 2 Brillare Momento 3 Molly Childers

1:20 I have left this race in although it has been reduced to seven runners as some do like the smaller fields although they don't work for me. Of these three only Sire De Grugy is anywhere near a workable price. However I feel he should be retired if his temperament is acceptable. He has done everything anyone could wish for and owes them nothing, and I find it slightly sad to see a top class horse in there still trying.
1:40 No value in the top three ranked so a none betting race for me. I have the final scores very tight between these two with Mohaayed being the class horse with only his last race messing up his consistency figures. That blip could have been down to it being the first run after a long lay off, or more worrying the soft going. If pushed I would have to side with Flying Tiger his best has been on a "speed" type course and he has a stronger jockey on board. Although I would/do wonder how much that last race took out of him. Irish Roe is third ranked based on his probable figure and looks out classed that is upheld by the cross check.
1:55 Class wise this all looks very tight. I find Clan Des Obeaux quite hard to figure out class wise as it is based on very small fields form. and it is quite easy for a horse to be flattered. Anything this trainer enters has to be respected but the horses Cheltenham form does raise questions and the price is far to tight for me. Anything this trainer enters has to be respected and based on that I'm looking at Romain De Senam as he is the joint class horse in this. For me he should have run a little better last time out, and that just maybe down to the two hard runs previous. One on an unsuitable course and not much recovery time. The slight change of course and a more experienced jockey MAY just answer a few questions why run if he doesn't think he can reverse the form with the others from that last race? Foxtail Hill is the other joint best class wise but his running style doesn't help in this class. Romain De Senam small win loaded place.
3:20 Vibrato Valtat is the class horse once again but while I wouldn't want to take him on, I still couldn't back him. This course looks suitable and on bare figures the rest have to improve more than a little.
3:40 Once again the top two ranked are far too tight to interest me this leaves Rons Dream, whom I have as the class horse. She does have proven form on this course and also at this time of the year. She will lack nothing from the sadle with her young jockey eager to show off at this top course. Momella is the big danger class wise and her figures were scored at Cheltenham but on the other course. However both of her wins were on lesser courses in novice company. Brillare Momento has won on both Cheltenham courses but has plenty to find class wise . Did toy with backing Rons Dream but bdecided against

Be Lucky
 
Ascot 1:50 1 Casse Tete 2 Poker School 3 Un Beau Roman
Ascot 2:25 1 Unowhatimeanharry 2 Lil Rockerfeller 3 Thomas Campbell
Hay 2:45 1 Three Faces West 2 Lake View Lad 3 Vic De Touzaine
Ascot 3:00 1 Frodon 2 Singlefarmpayment 3 Gold Present
Ascot 3:35 1 Elgin 2 Divin Bere 3 Air Horse One

Ascot 1:50 1 Monbeg River 2 Casse Tete 3 Dream Bolt
Ascot 2:25 1 Thomas Campbell 2 Sam Spinner 3 Lil Rockerfeller
Hay 2:45 1 Lake View Lad 2 Full Irish 3 Vic De Touzaine
Ascot 3:00 1 Gold Present 2 On Tour 3 Fortunate George
Ascot 3:35 1 Elgin 2 Silver Streak 3 Verdana Blue

1:50 Un Beau Roman is the clear class horse but is unreliable, he could is he wanted too but that seems to be guess work . Winning jockey is back on board and going right handed shouldn't be a problem. The cross check says he has plenty to find. Poker School won this last season and is best of the consistent horses. Both of his best performances have been on right handed tracks, both in December. Casse Tete has plenty to find class wise, but is hard to put an accurate mark on. A stiff right handed track should be no problem A no bet race but if pushed I would side with Poker School.
2:25 Nothing here for me as the prices are all very tight.
2:45 Same again all too tight
3:00 After spending some time on this race I'm going to try a rank outsider as the selection. Of the three ranked horses Gold Present was the easiest to put a line through as I think the stiff course will be very much against him . Singlefarmpayment the same can't be said for him but I can't find anything that suggests a stiff right handed course will improve his luck and the price is very tight. Frodon the main problem/dislike against him is the amount of runs at such a young age. It's almost as if the trainer thinks he is going to go off and wants as many runs as possible before he does. The course should't be a problem. I'm taking a chance on Ptit Zig, his best chase performances have all been on stiff courses two on this course. My figures say he is slightly better chaser than hurdler and he doesn't show in the rankings because his chase figures are slightly old. Ptit Zig small win loaded place to half stakes.
3:35 Elgin My worry about him is the hard races he had in his last two runs, he hasn't been brought back that quickly, but it is still inside the time span I like to see. Apart from this worry/doubt he ticks all the boxes. Divin Bere's figures are better on flat "speed" course and the trainer movments are more than a little confusing to a country boy likeme. I have been waiting for Air Horse One to run on a stiff track again, just hope there is enough good in the ground though. Form wise he ties in with Elgin quite well and this time they are both race fit. I have no idea if the jockey was given a choice between the horses, but he has ridden Divin Bere in all his runs in this country. Air Horse One small win loaded place.

Just a quickie to wish you all a Merry Christmas, and a happy/prosperous New year

Be Lucky