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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Hi Mtoto thanks.for.listing your horses have you noticed a drop in winners using your own criteria or is this due to other factors with Split Second ratings top ratings not a criticism just a thought thanks
 
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I to have been surprised at some of the races put up. I think it shows that there are many more ways and more classes of race that can be analysed profitably. The specialist is possibly more profitable because his number of bets are limited and has a knowledge of the same horses of the same class run in the same races over and again.
I don’t follow horses and have no horse data base so every contest is a new event and I prefer to work with numbers , accumatting evidence for the numbers unfortunately we need a few runs to reflect the true position. Some of the comments on that thread are price less - owners stats - the fact this trainer runs horses into the ground before passing them on - are just two examples - you are not going to get such info easily from many other sources. @mick has pointed out that the winner is found daily and distillation of the selections gives a narrow band of probables.

So tip up and then consider what others have posted in order refine the process .
:text-goodpost:@markfinn
 
can you post your intended target race the day before ? . Give me a chance to look at them

@markfinn I can post up the races I will be looking at to make my selections, but the final selection (s) are usually made after I have all the information, and this includes none runners and prices. So sometimes that isn't until around 11:30. Of course that doesn't apply to the ante post bets but, in truth they can be few and far between

I don’t follow horses and have no horse data base so every contest is a new event and I prefer to work with numbers

I too count every race as a new event but find a d/base very useful as my main criteria isn't the win aspect of a horses form. I have a record of every performance I consider good enough to warrant a note even if that record isn't the one actually being used as it can show me the course, and other factors needed to make a sensible selection. As said before I too work with numbers but those numbers only reflect on an individual horse and not connections.

Hi Mtoto thanks.for.listing your horses have you noticed a drop in winners using your own criteria or is this due to other factors with Split Second ratings top ratings not a criticism just a thought thanks.

@nagwa to be honest I don't look at winners as such, and I'm reasonably happy with the profit being shown

From a win perspective, Vincent might find the Going tough at Chepstow, when it’s get heavy at Chepstow it is really heavy. I think they will try to get his BHA Rating down in time for the Scottish National.

@Chesham You may have noticed I did mention the doubts re the going, Can he handle the heavy going has to be the question, but if there is any serious doubts I find it hard to believe this trainer would risk him with decent races coming up in the spring. I decided as winning isn't the main aim of the bets and as the trainer had stated he didn't want the horse plowing through deep mud. After his last race he would try and find out if the profile was changing with age. Unfortunately from my point of view the run didn't really settle anything about the going as they went off a bit fast, and Vicente was out paced before his stamina had time to kick in.

Be Lucky
 
I think as you often say This Horse /This Race = another Tilt as the Grand National or Trying to win the Scottish Version again (I did mention this in my post on Saturday.

The owner is Trevor Hemming and by entering Vincente (Top BHA in the Race) it enabled his other runner (Vintge Clouds, Favourite) to carry a lower physical weight of 11-1, quite useful ploy when a horse has to slog around a race like the Welsh National on Heavy Going :handgestures-thumbup: VDW mentions in The Golden Years, Trainers putting two in a race to reduce the weight of another of the Trainers favoured Runners.
 
The owner is Trevor Hemming and by entering Vincente (Top BHA in the Race) it enabled his other runner (Vintge Clouds, Favourite) to carry a lower physical weight of 11-1, quite useful ploy when a horse has to slog around a race like the Welsh National on Heavy Going :handgestures-thumbup: VDW mentions in The Golden Years, Trainers putting two in a race to reduce the weight of another of the Trainers favoured Runners.
@Chesham AS one who really thinks weight makes a major difference do you really think the two pounds reduced by Vincente would have made a significant difference to Vintge Clouds finishing position? My understanding of the hcp is that every other runner would also have benefited from the two less weight. I had several other horses that had a better chance than VC, like yourself on your class figures. When I posted my ratings and thoughts I did point out the worry/danger of the going, it may have been helpful if you had done the same when you posted your ratings. I also think it is taking a major chance basing your thoughts on the one run on heavy when he had won three out of eight on good to soft. I can't see how that stat is confirmed who decides on the differences.

Be Lucky
 
Be Lucky - I will need to

Lanzarote – hard race
Going -, Out Goes – None all seem to OK on GS
The course -Out goes Red Indian – never been tried going right looks to be a class C horse at moment
Distance Wishful Thinking never been this far on course before – Dino Velvet & Man From Mars - similar
The stats –
Age
Don’t want anything over 8yrd – however going to give William Henry pass at the moment
Out goes 11yrld I shot the Sheriff
DSLR - Don’t want a quick returner in what is sure to be a big test
out goes Top Ville Ben (14 days) and DDBeiffes (18 days) also doubts about distance for him
Weight Rank -Rules out – Spirit of the Games - Dentley De Mee –
Leaves
Bags Grove
William Henry aged 8
Topofthegame
River Frost
El Terremotto
Of these - William Henry drop on age – River Frost looks weakest –
So – Bags Grove 5/1 & Topofthegame 6/1
 
Warw 2:25 1 Prime Venture 2 Kris Spin 3 Templeross
Kemp 2:40 1 River Frost 2 Bags Groove 3 William Henry
Warw 3:35 1 Sir Mangan 2 Cresswell Breeze 3 Missed Approach

Probables
Warw 2:25 1 Prime Venture 2 Black Ivory 3 Malapie
Kemp 2:40 1 Bags Groove 2 William Henry 3 Spiritofthegames
Warw 3:35 1 Sir Mangan 2 Cogry 3 Krackatoa King

When I started looking at today's racing I was working on eight races. I was quite confident the 2:25 at Warw would not come into the reckoning. However it turns out to be a higher class race than the 3:35, that race is the perfect example why you can't just take the class 2 in the title as a fact!! The top OR is only 139 making it for me a class 3

2:25 I have Templeross as the clear class horse in this. No way of telling if his poor last run was down to the going, he does have a win on heavy but that was in much lower class. He does seem to prefer going right handed but flat tracks suit. Prime Venture has plenty to find class wise in fact I make him lowest class wise of all the runners with a rating. Add in the course also raises doubts for me. Kris Spin more than a bit surprised to read the comment in form recent runs against his name as for me he has only one run I would consider a for run in the last year and that still leaves him well behind Templeross. Did toy with relying on Templeross's class but decided discretion may just be the better part of valour when the trainer is taken into account. Although I will be watching with great interest and if he just runs well he maybe one for later!!
2:40 River Frost the only runner with proven form in a higher class but there has to be a doubt re the course. His best so far has been on undulating courses . He does have a course win on this course but in a lower class. The course doubt along with the short price stops this being a bet for me. Bags Groove second best class wise but with no worries re flat "speed" course. Can't find it being said he would be targeted for this, but it does look as if he has been. William Henry hasn't an entry on the d/base and his ranking is solely due to his probable figures and I think those have been flattered by his trainer. Bags Groove small win loaded place.
3:35 Cresswell Breeze on my figures he is the horse with the best recent form of the horse with proven form in a higher class. In saying that this must be just about the lowest class 1 on record for sometime. For me I worry that the course may not suit Cresswell Breeze as undulating courses especially stiff(er) ones with this in mind I would want a better place price. The prices on Sir Mangan and Missed Approach don't interst me enough to warrrant a bet.

Be Lucky