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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Chelt 1:30 1 Neon Wolf 2 Consul De Thaix 3 Willoughby Court
    Chelt 2:10 1 Acapella Bourgeois 2 Royal Vacation 3 Bellshill
    Chelt 2:50 1 The Romford Pele 2 Tombstone 3 Old Guard
    Chelt 3:30 1 God's Own 2 Fox Norton 3 Douvan
    Chelt 4:50 1 Project Bluebook 2 Divin Bere 3 Domperignon Du Lys

    Probables
    Chelt 1:30 1 Neon Wolf 2 Shattered Love 3 Willoughby Court
    Chelt 2:10 1 Acapella Bourgeois 1 Bellshill 3 Might Bite
    Chelt 2:50 1 Tin Soldier 2 Tombstone 3 River Frost
    Chelt 3:30 1 Douvan 2 Garde La Victoire 3 Fox Norton
    Chelt 4:50 1 Divin Bere 2 Domperignon Du Lys 3 Nietzsche


    Have to admit I was more than a little surprised with a couple of the ratings, the final rankings and even the bare ability ratings. The first is The Romford Pele closely followed by Douvan. While I can find nothing wrong with The Romford Pele's figures Douvan's could well be down to an anomaly in the logic, but it is one I have found before and tried to get around. In this race it won't matter as I will not be taking Douvan on, just watching and perhaps making a decision on what to do if it happens again. In a way it confirms the logic behind the rating. It is interesting to see both these horses ratings are also the queried by other sets of ratings, and the cross check doesn't help sort it out.

    1:30 spent far to long trying to work this one out and have now given up trying to find a profitable bet. The one I was starting to side with was Willoughby Court, but don't really think he can make it all on this course in this class. The price on Neon Wolf is far to tight to interest me and I think the price of Consul De Thaix is based more on the trainer than his form.
    2:10 This is another muddling race with doubts about the course for all of the runners with the strongest ability ratings. Based on the little I know about Irish race course it is just possible Bellshill can handle a stiff course, but he has yet to prove he has the class to handle this. If pushed I would have to have a little on Our Kaempfer, he is second best class wise of the consistent horses and has shown he can handle undulating courses.
    2:50 Apart from his lack of recent form I put a line through The Romford Pele based on his hurdle form on stiff tracks. Old Guard is my ante post bet in this as I have been convinced this was the target for some time. He handles Cheltenham and has just about shown he can get the distance all be it based on a far to soft ride at Kempton to find out. When the bet was struck I expected Tombstone to go for the Champion hurdle in fact I did consider backing him for it but as he now goes in this has has to be a big danger. Did consider having a saver on him but the price is far to tight in a field like this. E/w ante post bet stands place to 5th place.
    3:30 I'm not taking Douvan on no matter what the figures say
    4:50 Normally I wouldn't be backing a horse like Project Bluebook as all his best hurdling form has been on a easy speed course. However in this case he is the only runner with proven form in a higher class and he does have winning form on the flat on a stiff course. Of the potential dangers only Dakota Moirette (4th best class wise) has form on stiff undulating course and he has plenty to find class wise. Small win loaded place Project Bluebook.

    Be Lucky
     
  2. dicko14

    dicko14 Mare

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    @mtoto
    "The one I was starting to side with was Willoughby Court, but don't really think he can make it all on this course in this class"
    What a shame you didn't bother but it does show your methodology is working well for field reduction and thanks for sharing.
     
    StuartH likes this.
  3. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Chelt 1:30 1 Top Notch 2 Disko 3 Politologue
    Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Jury Duty 3 Theo's Charm
    Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Empire Of Dirt
    Chelt 3:30 1 Nichols Canyon 2 Jezki 3 Cole Harden
    Chelt 4:10 1 Village Vic 2 Voix D'Eau 3 Starchitect
    Chelt 4:50 1 Let's Dance 2 Dusky Legend 3 Airlie Beach

    Probables

    Chelt 1:30 1 Top Notch 2 Yorkhill 3 Flying Angel
    Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Impulsive Star 3 Isleofhopendreams
    Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Vaniteux 3 Empire Of Dirt
    Chelt 3:30 1 Unowhatimeanharry 2 Shaneshill 3 Jezki
    Chelt 4:10 1 Starchitect 2 Champagne At Tara 3 Pinkie Brown
    Chelt 4:50 1 Airlie Beach 2 Let's Dance 3 La Bague Au Roi


    After yesterdays shock in the ratings/results re Douvan I have decided to leave the ratings as they are and be governed by the logic that was first used and shown. Nothing 0as big to worry about today although there are a couple of surprises, first of Un De Sceaux isn't the best on bare class. Plus Unowhatimeanharry only comes out fourth best on class and in the final rankings. None of this bothers me to much as I won't be backing in the 2:50 and I was never personally happy with Unowhatimeanharry and was always going to take him on.
    1:30 nothing here for me as the pric9ishes agree with the figures and there isn't a value bet,
    2:10 I love a fairy story as much as anyone but much as I would love to see this horse bring it home I just can't see it. Add in the hype and the price is way shorter than it would have been without it. He can act on undulating course I there can be no doubt about his will to win. While I do think he stand a better than fair chance of placing and that would be a major victory I can't see him improving enough to cope with this rise in class. Jury Duty prep or no prep last time out the run was way below what was needed/expected a case can be made to excuse the run as there was a change of jockey and the first time the horse had run in this country. Based on previous form and course considerations he should have performed much better and the price is a little on the tight side. There is also the worry the going has/is going against him. Theo's Charm the first thing that catches my eye is the cross check is dead against this horse but on closer examination he is just within the required criteria!! He has returned from a not so clever chasing campaign, but his hurdle form stands up quite well. So much so he is one of only three runners who have proven form in a higher class and his is the most recent. I did toy with backingJury Duty and putting a line through his last run but I really do hope it isn't just down to greed but I'm siding with Theo's Charm small win loaded place.
    2:50 Nothing here for me.
    3:30 Here I'm sticking with my ante post bet on Cole Harden struck before Christmas at a much better price than the one on offer today. He has the tee shirt, and I took a chance that the going would be more in his favour than it has been this season so far. Another major factor in this bet is all his best runs have been at Cheltenham on good going.
    4:10 I'm going to half stakes on Voix D'Eau. I make him the class horse with his figures being obtained at this course and distance on this or very similar going. The big(ish) worry is the jockey, but he was riding on that occasion. Along with the top weight he is the only other runner with proven form in higher calls. Both horse achieved their figures at this course but Voix D'Eau. is younger leaving more room to improve and his running style does put a target on the jockeys back. Voix D'Eau. small win loaded place.
    4:50 Did have a serious look at Dusky Legend as she gained her best figures in this race last year. After a quick study I decided to leave this to the Irish with La Bague Au Roi being just about the best of the English. No bet.

    Be Lucky
     
    nagwa, StuartH and dicko14 like this.
  4. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Chelt 1:30 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Bapaume 3 Master Blueyes
    Chelt 2:10 1 Arctic Fire 2 L'Ami Serge 3 Air Horse One
    Chelt 2:50 1 Wholestone 2 Death Duty 3 Tommy Rapper
    Chelt 3:30 1 Cue Card 2 Djakadam 3 Tea For Two
    Chelt 5:30 1 The Game Changer 2 Dodging Bullets 3 Velvet Maker

    Probables
    Chelt 1:30 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Master Blueyes 3 Charli Parcs
    Chelt 2:10 1 Air Horse One 2 Vosne Romanee 3 Tell Us More
    Chelt 2:50 1 Death Duty 2 The Worlds End 3 Wholestone
    Chelt 3:30 1 Native River 2 Sizing John 3 Cue Card
    Chelt 5:30 1 Theinval 2 Gardefort 3 Pairofbrowneyes


    1:30 Price wise Bapaume is the only one of the top three what would be of interest. However I do have problems finding a reason why he can reverse the placings with the winner of his last race. Grasping at straws I could just about put it down a quick return from a hard race the time before. But much as I have liked the race in the past I'm giving it a miss this time around.
    2:10 Arctic Fire is the clear class horse and for good measure is the clear class/form horse. He only fails in the forecast requirements and form me that is mainly down to the weight being classed as a negative and the time of the course. He has run well when fresh and the weight just confirms the official handicapper agrees he is a very good horse. His Cheltenham form can't be challenged especially in this class. L'Ami Serge is the only one who can get close class wise and I doubt he has the "bottle" to win a race like this. Air Horse One while there is no doubt he is improving his problem is he defiantly appears to have a right hand bias.Arctic Fire holding firm with my e/w ante post bet.
    2:50 Did have a good look at Tommy Rapper based mainly on the price of the other two being tight, and the fact the likely favourite didn't even have an ability rating. However I have decided the course could give Tommy problems,and he does look a bit clumsy. Just hope this isn't another I have spent some time look at and turning down only to see them run screamers!! :doh:
    3:30 I have always had my doubts about Cue Card coping with the hill over this distance and in this class. One of my biggest worries his best performances have been achieved at Haydock and for many years I have had major doubts about the figures telling the who;e truth and nothing but the truth. I have a small ante post e/w bet on Native River but although he comes out as the strongest probable I'm more than a little stunned to see how far down the class rankings he comes. As it was struck before Christmas I think it is just about worth letting in stand but I wouldn't be interested at the price being offered now.
    5;30 Faint heart never won a fair maid or anything else for that matter!! So here we go I'm backing Dodging Bullets he is obviously the class horse by a distance. Can he recapture just a little of his old form he only needs a little of it to win this? I maybe going soft in my old age, but a really don't think the trainer would humiliate the horse, and connections, if he couldn't put in a good one at this meeting. Dodging Bullets small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
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  5. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    It is Arctic Fire's 2nd venture into handicaps and no horse has won off that weight or BHA rating. Age wise only one 8 Y-O has won. I do wonder if he has been put in to compress the weights in favour of his other runners. Arctic Fire was 2nd in this race in 2014 (Aged 5 on BHA 141 and on 158 today)
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
    nagwa and dicko14 like this.
  6. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Brilliant Result for you @mtoto and well deserved, defied the stats and the first horse to win with that weight since 1960 :clap::clap::clap: to the horse as well
     
    mick likes this.
  7. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto congrats on your 2.10 result,a super win in a difficult race.
     
    Chesham likes this.
  8. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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  9. dicko14

    dicko14 Mare

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    @mtoto
    Very well done. You haven't been far off the mark with your other selections either.
     
  10. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Utto 2:25 1 Rock The Kasbah 2 American 3 Crosspark
    Kemp 2:40 1 Crimson Ark 2 Golden Spear 3 Divine Spear
    Utto 3:35 1 Houblon Des Obeaux 2 Cory 3 Silver Man

    Probables
    Utto 2:25 1 American 2 Crosspark 3 Rock The Kasbah
    Kemp 2:40 1 Bandsman 2 Dream Berry 3 Casper King
    Utto 3:35 1 Court Frontier 2 Final Nudge 3 Blakemount


    2:25 Nothing here for me. I had backed American at Cheltenham on a none runner money back basis as I really did fancy him. While I think he should win this and I said I would start looking at some shorter price horses. the price is shorter than I would take even now.
    2:40 The class of this leaves plenty to be desired, but it is what it is a consultation race. There is very little between the top four on class and three of these look as if they were seriously trained/aimed at Cheltenham. All three based on a slightly different s/f formulation showed they were hitting peak for.Crimson Ark was returning after a five month lay off, and perhaps I'm trying be a little to clever but I'm reading this as it was very unlikely Crimson Ark would get into the/a Cheltenham race based on his OR. Based on that fact/opinion was that last run just a prep to see if Kempton would suit. and this was the real target? While it wouldn't surprise me to see the other two run well the place price on both is quite tight. Crimson Ark small win loaded place.
    3:35 Plenty of questions that need to be answered here. Houblon Des Obeaux was the last race so poor because HDO just doesn't like Haydock or has he lost it for now? Cory can he put the amount of letters in his form figures behind him and get around without losing his jockey one way or another? Silver Man will the ground be firm enough for him to run his race as his best figures have been on this course? Based on the fact I don't think the trainer will/would risk damaging him on the wrong going and would pull him out, of these three I would just about side with Silver Man, but only to very small stakes. Silver Man small win loaded place to quarter stakes.

    Would just like to thank Arctic Fire as I have had a couple of e-mails asking why I didn't revise my method as they weren't winning. My answer was it has shown it works very well in the past, so why change anything? It will all come right in the end that is if the original logic is good/sound enough. Chopping and changing only leads to confusion, and or muddled thinking. So also a big thank you for those who bothered to look at and read the blog.

    Hopefully another grand slam coming up, all we ever needed was a leader who wasn't to bothered about getting under folks skins. Thank you Eddie for bringing a bit of "dog" into the team, all blacks will find out soon, hopefully they won't keep us waiting to long. :aggressive: :neo:

    Be Lucky
     
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  11. nagwa

    nagwa Colt

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    good winners mtoto
     
  12. ArkRoyal

    ArkRoyal Administrator

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    Shocking display, looked clueless to me.
     
  13. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 2:25 1 Ericht 2 Gala Ball 3 Warriors Tale
    Newb 3:00 1 Copper Kay 2 Tara View 3 Hitherjacques Lady
    Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Templier 3 Dinsdale

    Probables
    Newb 2:25 1 Warriors Tale 2 Gurkha Brave 3 No Buts
    Newb 3:00 1 Tara View 2 Hitherjacques Lady 3 Sister Sibyl
    Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Dinsdale 3 Buckle Street


    While the three races look competitive the two hurdle races appear to lack class, but that could just be because they haven't been tried in higher class, yet!!

    2:25 Ericht seems reasonably versatile when it comes to course type, but he does strongly favour the better going. Although he can handle both/most types of courses, his best is on stiff and that would have to be a slight worry when the going is open to discussion. After a deal of thought and time I have decided a place is best that can reasonably be hoped for with him and to go in there I would want a better price,
    3:00 While I do think Copper Kay has been laid out for this the price is a little to tight, when you consider there are so many unexposed horses running in it. There is no doubt she should have won at Warwick but I doubt they will let her idle like that with this prize at stake.
    3:35 The worry about Templier is the course but looking at his last race it was only a trial to find out how good he was before they decided about Cheltenham. If they had even considered Cheltenham they must have been happy in their own minds he didn't need tight course to show his best, but there is still the lack of undulations to worry about. On proven form he is the class horse the only horse with proven form in a higher class in the race. He needs to be ridden with a little more restraint, but the stable will know that. After quite a bit of soul searching I'm giving the first two races a miss, and only backing Templier small win loaded place,

    Shocking display, looked clueless to me.

    @ArkRoyal I was as disappointed as everyone else but I do think tour words are a little harsh. It must be remembered the Irish finished the All Blacks winning run and they did that away from home. On Saturday they were at home on St Patrick's day and played out of their skins, yes we should have done better but clueless o_OOut played on the day :confused:

    Be Lucky
     
  14. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    I think that you are wise to swerve Copper Kay as the Price Disparity is a vey dodgy 3.17 times its Implied Price
     
  15. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 2:25 1 Examiner 2 Strong Steps 3 Nimr
    Don 3:00 1 Dark Emerald 2 Stormy Antarctic 3 Cymric
    Don 3:35 1 Yuften 2 Master Carpenter 3 Top Notch Tonto

    Probables
    Don 2:25 1 Nimr 2 Sacred Act 3 Swift Emperor
    Don 3:00 1 Crazy Horse 2 Kool Kompany 3 Dawn Of Hope
    Don 3:35 1Oh This Is Us 2 George Cinq 3 Yuften


    As I have friends coming for the day and won't be able to concentrate on the racing I will just be marking the horse that took my eye. As usual this is based mainly on the price at this time, and under normal circumstances MAYBE eliminated for different reasons.
    2:25 The two that are/were of interest here are Examiner and Strong Steps
    3:00 Dark Emerald needs some investigation to find out if he has really lost his form or is it an illusion bought about by running on unsuitable conditions?
    3:35 This race had been looked at in more detail as I had an ante post bet that in now a none runner. Yuften's form ties up with the horse I backed and as such I think he has to be respected, but the price is far to short for me now. For me there are slight doubts re the course and going for this horse and the price certainly doesn't allow for any doubts. Course wise there is little doubt the other two Master Carpenter and Top Notch Tonto are well served by the course and both have very good form over the 10f . Of the two I think the going will slightly favour the chippy, but I'm not really convinced by the jockey although I'm sure she will do everything she possibly in this big race on a Saturday and on the television. Looking at the trainers she has ridden for someone thinks highly of her. IF I can find a couple of spare minutes I would consider a small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  16. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Aintree 2:20 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Forth Bridge 3 Flying Tiger
    Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Dandridge 3 Yorkist

    Probables
    Aintree 2:20 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Forth Bridge 3 Flying Tiger
    Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Rock On Rocky 3 Gino Trail


    2:20 Defi Du Seuil ticks nearly all the boxes apart from the really important one for me the price. Is there a weakness, the only slight query is is he as good on a flat course without the undulations? All his best form has been on undulating course and he has only once been raced on a flat course, of course he won that but looking at the race he would have won it on three legs.Forth Bridge looks as if he has been saved/targeted for this and looking at his form avoiding Cheltenham looks sensible. His best runs have been on a flat speed courses. So while there isn't the worry re the course the slight worry here is the going as his best has been on good going and he was beaten on the soft. Now that may/could have been down to lack of experience, but the place price isn't good enough to take a risk. No Bet.
    4:40 Both of the top two rated figures are based on stiff course but both have proven form on flatter courses. Both ran at Cheltenham and until other factors kick in there is very little between them, only Foxtail Hill's fall stops the run being a form run so Dandridge has the edge there. The drop in distance may not be a problem looking at Foxtail's running style if they don't take him of his feet early on but the trainer has always bothered me in as much as I often wonder if he really knows what his horses are really capable of. Yorkist while he should like the flat course, his results here say something very different, a different trainer just maybe able to sort that out. Another race I'm leaving alone.

    In answer to a couple of e-mails no I didn't get back in time to back/watch Master Carpenter on Saturday. While I don't like blaming jockeys for losing rides I have to say his rider did show a serious lack of experience/know how. She did manage to just about put the horse in the race but for some reason didn't follow the more experienced jockeys moving to the other side of the track. He had shown the stamina to handle such a move if it had been done in time. All in all a good to fair run, and I will be looking out for him in hcps on speed courses later on.

    Be Lucky
     
  17. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Aintree 1:40 1 North Hill Harvey 2 Ice Cold Soul 3 Runswick Royal
    Aintree 2:20 1 River Wylde 2 High Secret 3 Mount Mews
    Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 God's Own
    Aintree 4:05 1 Irish Cavalier 2 Eastlake 3 As De Mee
    Aintree 4:40 1 Debece 2 The Worlds End 3 Constantine Bay

    Probables
    Aintree 1:40 1 Runswick Royal 2 Rather Be 3 Allee Bleue
    Aintree 2:20 1 Mount Mews 2 Moon Racer 3 The Unit
    Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Royal Regatta
    Aintree 4:05 1 Mr Diablo 2 Imjoeking 3 As De Mee
    Aintree 4:40 1 The Worlds End 2 Debece 3 Straidnahanna

    1:40 North Hill Harvey's profile seems to suggest he prefers stiff courses and going with give in it. Ice Cold Soul, don't really know what to make of this horse, Its winning form and connections say it has to be respected but the cross check suggests it has plenty to find. I have no idea how/if Leopardstown's configuration is anything like Aintree and if the form will stand up but it has to be noted they missed Cheltenham for this ? Runswick Royal does have good form on this course and has the type of stable profile I like, a good horse trained by a none face otherwise it would be a much shorter price . As with every selection there are doubts /worries and with him the worry is has chasing blunted his hurdling speed. A question that has to be asked as his recent figures after the chasing campaign are a little slower than those before he started. On the early figures he is right in there, there again it could have just been the heavy going slowing him down. Runswick Royal small win loaded place
    2:20 & 3:25 due to the prices neither are betting races for me.
    4:05 I'm taking a chance here as both of the top two ranked are a bit of a law into themselves, both are capable, but I don't think even the trainers know which side of the bed the horse got out of!! Of the two I think Irish Cavalier is much the better horses and the course going etc should suit Early in his career it looked as if stiff courses was the order of the day, but as he has go older he doesn't seem to like the battle up the hills. So Irish Cavalier small win loaded place to half stakes.
    4:40 Debece I read many months ago this would be the target. Trainer suggested he was a better horse on better going and he would wait for the spring. The Newbury run was just a prep for this, and I think the trainer was pleasantly surprised how well he went even though the going wasn't really suitable. The Worlds End, the question here is does this horse need the undulations to show his best, if he does I don't think he will beat Constantine Bay. For me Constantine Bay didn't handle Cheltenham very well. Debece small win loaded place.

    I still don't really understand why folk send me e-mails when asking about the blog, for me this is the place to ask questions. However I will try to answer a few here and now.

    First I'm asked doesn't the probables just add to the confusion. Well for me no, they are a completely separate stand alone part of the consistency method. If I have a race like the 4:05 I know it is wide open with at least six horses high lighted with a good to fair chance. The way my spreadsheet is set out I can see at a glance any/all horses that are in with a mathematical chance and I then have to sort those out, but it can be seen at a glance saving time.

    I 'm also asked why at times I don't answer/acknowledge some questions/ ideas etc. Here I can only think they are talking about the likes of @Chesham remark .................I think that you are wise to swerve Copper Kay as the Price Disparity is a vey dodgy 3.17 times its Implied Price. Here the very simple fact is I don't really understand what the passage means. If folk read the blog they will see I'm not in the slightest interested in what other punters think about a horses chances. I decided not to back the horse because I thought the price was too tight when everything else was taken into consideration and for that reason only. I do try to answer any questions if I can, but as Chesham is a trends man I have no answer that can be used when he says a horse has never won the race carrying that sort of weight. That doesn't ever enter my thinking, the nearest I will ever come to that is thinking a horse may have been flattered by the figures awarded. Because of that it may well be carrying more weight than it should but weight as such never comes into my equation, it just has a false ability measurement.

    Be Lucky
     
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  18. mick

    mick Dam

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    Hi @mtoto Re your last para above,bottom line your blog so your business, but i wonder if "not having the slightest interest in what other members think about a horses chance" is costing you some well intended contributions.? When i offer my reasons for backing one my money is already being placed so while i will not be influenced by another opinion i am usually interested in reading it because even with a proven method there are often things to be learned which can enhance the prospects of further improvement.? ;)
     
  19. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    I think the Ground may be against Runswick Royal
     
  20. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Re your last para above,bottom line your blog so your business, but i wonder if "not having the slightest interest in what other members think about a horses chance" is costing you some well intended contributions.

    @mick I'm not sure how I seem to word the posts incorrectly. What I meant to say is when I look at the market for me it is just a list of horses where others for whatever reason have given their ideas of a horses chances. It is this that holds no interest for me as those chances/ideas are not explained and at times have nothing or very little to do with actual form. There are folk on here that give their thoughts on a race without giving reasons for the final selections and that is fair enough but in most cases they also show their ratings. The live market does none of this and that is why I'm not interested. Reading my first post again it didn't say members, here I'm talking about the general public (punters) I can't ask or answer them, members are always welcome and I will explain antthing if I understand the question/remark

    I think the Ground may be against Runswick Royal

    @Chesham I did have a look at the going and did wonder but in the Racing Post it said Runswick Royal ran its best race of that season on good going at Aintree. After seeing your post I did check again and then checked using the Life there it said good to soft. Did Timeform say something different?

    Be Lucky
     
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  21. mick

    mick Dam

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    Hi @mtoto no worries, my misunderstanding.;) I agree your point Re the markets they are based on opinions and if we can find good reasons to disagree with the majority ones then we increase our value edge.When i cannot disagree then like yourself i am inclined to swerve.
     
  22. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    On HRB it had the going as Good and looking at the wins it usually had soft (GD/sft) or worse in the description. I was surprised that the Trainer put the horse in the race as after the March win, the opinion was that the Aintree Race would come too soon.

    The recent wins on Heavy seemed to indicate that the horses physical problem, a kissing spine, meant that he would not want good or firmer ground as it would cause more pain. The other reason was that the younger horses would be going too quick for RR to get into the race at the closing stages as he would be too far behind. ( I always remember Willie Carson saying that in some circumstances you can give weight, but not give away lengths)

    I think the Trainers first opinion that the Ayr Nationl Meeting would have been the best option. A wasted run yesterday as the horse does have Class.
     
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  23. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Aintree 1:45 1 Zarkandar 2 Barney Dwan 3 Fountains Windfall
    Aintree 2:25 1 Finian's Oscar 2 Messire Des Obeaux 3 Lough Derg Spirit
    Aintree 3:40 1 Henri Parry Morgan 2 Our Kaempfer 3 I Just Know
    Aintree 4:20 1 Yanworth 2 Cole Harden 3 Ptit Zig
    Aintree 5:15 1 Definitly Red 2 Shantou Flyer 3 Pleasant Company

    Probables
    Aintree 1:45 1 Fountains Windfall 2 Desert Cry 3 No Hassle Hoff
    Aintree 2:25 1 Finian's Oscar 2 Le Breuil 3 Lough Derg Spirit
    Aintree 3:40 1 I Just Know 2 Value At Risk 3 Our Kaempfer
    Aintree 4:20 1 Supasundae 2 Puffin Billy 3 Aux Ptits Soins
    Aintree 5:15 1 Definitly Red 2 Pleasant Company 3 Goodtoknow

    All week if not all season I have been looking forward to this, but on working the races I don't feel confident about finding a profit in any of them!!

    This maybe a little arse about face but I will start with the 5:15 as it the race I have spent the most time on. It just about sums up the days racing as there is nothing clear cut and it just adds to the confusion in my mind. For personal reasons, that I can't really explain in a logical way I just can't have Definitly Red. I did spend a fair bit of time having a very good look at Shantou Flyer but the way they have campaigned him looks slightly strange. Is this horse a true stayer that they have tried to to hide and keep him unexposed? I make him the class horse but that is based on form from two and a half miles. Leaving him to one side I then have a major problem with Saphir Du Rheu. Based on past experience I don't have him as an improving horse, although logic says otherwise. Using the usual figures I have him reasonably well down the rankings but while figures often flatter horses in this case I think they are doing the opposite and he should be the class horse in this race and that would put him in with a big shout. + the trainer would give his back teeth to win this and settle the championship. These are just a couple of the problems with this race another one is Saint Are, of the six horses with proven form he is the strongest and he is another who will be trying very hard. If pushed I would split the stakes and back both Shantou Flyer and Saphir Du Rheu, but no one is pushing except possibly the wife wanting a bet and those are the ones that will be suggested if need be.
    1:45 Zarkandar clear class horse who stood very little chance in his last race. This just be a good way to bow out as this is the lowest class he has raced in for a long time. The biggest danger looks to be Barney Dwan, but is he much better on stiff courses, another question has he had enough time to recover after a hard race last time out? Fountains Windfall class wise has plenty to find, the last two runs only showed the horse is alive and has four legs. Zarkandar small win loaded place
    2:25& 4:20 not races that interest me from a betting point of view
    3:40 Even though Henri Parry Morgan achieved the figures that have him top ranked at this meeting last season I couldn't back him until he show something like that old form. Our Kaempfer is back in a lower class on a more suitable course. Hopefully there will be enough give in the ground for him. The danger here looks to be I Just Know, but he has plenty to find class wise and he has the cross check to over come as well. Did toy with a small win loaded place on Our Kaempfer but think 3/1 the place would be the minimum I would take.

    Be Lucky
     
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  24. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Pont 4:10 1 Cymro 2 Ashkoul 3 Great Hall.

    Probables
    Pont 4:10 1 Ashkoul 2 Empress Ali 3 Just Hiss

    Cymro is the clear class horse, and is the only runner with proven form in a higher class. So far so good, but for me there is a major problem, the course, can he achieve these figures on a stiff course? He has shown he can win first time out but the price is too tight and I'm far from convinced this is a serious run and more a prep for something a little later into the season Chester perhaps or some other speed course. Ashkoul if he can handle the different pace from French racing he could be the fly in the ointment here. His form seems to be from the smaller French course and I have no idea about their configurations but the handicapper giving him a 94 seem reasonably impressed, or is it just an educated guess covering his backside? I'm leaving the race alone.

    but no one is pushing except possibly the wife wanting a bet and those are the ones that will be suggested if need be.

    Wife only asked one question re the national, is One For Arthur on your d/base. Answer yes so she backed him as the grandson's name is Arthur. So much for serious study and the assistant trainer telling the world he was happy to pull the horse out because of the going :eek: :doh:



    Be Lucky
     
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  25. *tom*

    *tom* Gelding

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    :lolsign:
     
  26. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Bath 3:30 1 Permian 2 Doctor Bartolo 3 Atkinson Grimshaw
    Bath 4:30 1 Oh This Is Us 2 The Warrior 3 Hors De Combat

    Probables
    Bath 3:30 1 Doctor Bartolo 2 Atkinson Grimshaw 3 Mister Manduro
    Bath 4:30 1 The Warrior 2 El Vip 3 Oh This Is Us


    Looking back through my records I find this is the first race from Bath I have worked in the recent past, and even not so recent. From memory Bath has no watering facilities and the going can get very quick.

    3:30 Permian made it onto my list of year olds to look out for, and this is formulated with the classics in mind. Today's price stops there being any sort of a bet. even though he ticks more than a few boxes. The first being the only runner with form. but in a slightly lower class but is still the class form horse. He can act on firm going and is proven over the distance and a stiff course. He also has an eye catching jockey booking and a slightly surprising one at that. The jockey is one of my favourites and I think very often underrated, however much as I like the jockey it doesn't improve his chances of winning. Much is often made of a jockey's capabilities, but in all honesty I think there is very little between the actual riders, the difference is the horses ability 90% of the time and the other 10% is preparation, walking the course etc. and of course thinking, and having a plan . For me Robbie Power is living proof of this, suddenly he is a 10 year over night sensation and is a wonder jockey!! I don't think he has really improved that much he is just getting on better horses.
    4:30 Again the prices stop me getting involved. Oh This Is Us is versatile when it comes to course type and distance. The worry apart from price is how much did Doncaster take out of him and has he had enough time to recover? The Warrior while he can handle stiffer tracks the going and distance would be a problem for me and the cross check suggests he has plenty to find. Hors De Combat is the class horse but it is some time since he put in a performance good enough to register on the d/base. He can act on firm going but I would need to see some of the old sparkle before I could back him
    So nothing today but at least it made me have a serious look at another course, and it will be interesting to see if there are many more class races put on at this course.

    As in the main the members of this forum are sensible grown up folk I do wonder why the need for some to think they need others to do their thinking for them!! Why the need to point out some of the posts need careful consideration and do they really think folk would part with money to get these so called tips!!?? If these folk were just ignored I think they would soon get fed up and push off. Without being rude I do wonder if so much of the good stuff is hidden away in secret places the general public on reading the open forum think the place is full of folk ready to be fleeced as it appears some of the posts lack knowledge . Just a thought. :acute:

    Be Lucky
     
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  27. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto The Bath going is now firm and this will play a part in some of the outcomes.I have backed Equally Fast @25/1 in the last and his previous nk 2nd on same going was a contributing factor.Re your last para i have not got involved but there are two sides to the story.When i started out many years ago i was fleeced on several occasions ,if these forums had been available then i think less likely.? While i agree that left alone those who post with a hidden agenda tend to hang themselves i also feel its a positive to challenge said agenda if it is suspected.?

    One aspect i have noticed is that when threads go this way they can attract plenty of posts and comments.Often more so than those on horse racing receive from some members.None of my business really but i cannot help but think its an arse about face way of progressing matters.? :confused: If we feel the need for a ruck the Bookmakers are a better target.;)

    PS Pleased to share and agree your thoughts on jockeys.First find the horse and only then start investigating who is on top and why.Some of my favorites are not in vogue but this often adds points to the price.;)
     
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  28. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:05 1 No Planning 2 Ballybolley 3 Aerlite Supreme
    Hay 2:40 1 Shanroe Santos 2 Bob Tucker 3 Fort Worth
    Mus 3:00 1 Mailshot 2 Rashford's Double 3 Mazyoun
    Hay 3:15 1Valhalla 2 Stamp Your Feet 3 Tonto's Spirit
    Mus 3:35 1 Montaly 2 Isharah 3 Suegioo
    Hay 3:50 1 Late Night Lily 2 Poppy Kay 3 Secret Door
    Hay 4:20 1 Fortunate George 2 Cooking Fat 3 Midnight Shot
    Hay 4:55 1 Actinpieces 2 Conquer Gold 3 Twenty Eight Guns

    Probables
    Hay 2:05 1 No Planning 2 Captain Redbeard 3 Mumgos Debut
    Hay 2:40 1 Shanroe Santos 2 Rathlin Rose 3 Behind The Wire
    Mus 3:00 1 Rashford's Double 2 Mailshot 3 Mazyoun
    Hay 3:15 1 Tonto's Spirit 2 Limited Reserve 3 Caius Marcius
    Mus 3:35 1 Isharah 2 Stipulate 3 Carbon Dating
    Hay 3:50 1 Poppy Kay 2 Secret Door 3 Culture De Sivola
    Hay 4:20 1 Fortunate George 2 Cooking Fat 3 Sam Red
    Hay 4:55 1 Conquer Gold 2 Magic Money 3 Two Smokin Barrels

    Plenty of races but very little in the way of proven class

    3:15 Valhalla is one of only two runners who has proven class in better races than this. He seems to be at his best on tight flat course on good going, he has both today. Seems to be able to handle any distance and stable back in form. the next two in the rankings both have plenty to find although Tonto's Spirit being the strongest probable and doesn't have the problem of the cross check to over come. + he is young enough to have some improvement in him.Valhalla small win loaded place.
    3:35 Montaly Read somewhere he was being looked at for the Chester Cup so had marked him down as one to look out for. On studying his form I find it a little worrying that the figures being used come from Haydock but a win can't really be argued with even a Haydock win. At first I thought the trainer had traveled to Scotland with just the one horse and that helped justify spending the time looking at him, but there is another runner later on. He is one of only three runners with form in this class or better and the other two (same trainer) look as if they are being prepped for Chester, and I would like to see something better than they have achieved in the recent past. Montaly small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  29. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Chelt 2:40 1 Village Vic 2 Voix D'eau 3 Thomas Crapper
    Newm 3:35 1 Sea Of Grace 2 Pamplemousse 3 Poet's Vanity

    Probables
    Chelt 2:40 1 Starchitect 2 Thomas Crapper 3 Casino Markets
    Newm 3:35 1 Pamplemousse 2 Sea Of Grace 3 Poet's Vanity


    Like yesterday I can't find a bet. However unlike yesterday this is for very different reasons. Yesterday the race was just a complete mess from my point of view. Class of the race was in doubt as it was based on only on foreign form and there were two such runners just to add to the uncertainty. After working the race the likely selection had the what for me is usually a very big question has it had enough time to recover from its last (hard)race Add in there were several unexposed horse from big stables and all in all the prize money wasn't that great a race to use as a prep race for later on??

    Today's races are purely down to the fact I can't see a horse whose chances are not reflected by the prices on offer.

    One little surprise was the fact Spark Plug is down as a runner, and I'm 100% sure I read he was put down after an accident on the gallops. Did I really read that or was it just another senior moment??!! o_O:confused:

    Be Lucky
     
  30. mick

    mick Dam

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    I had no thoughts on the race but it was great to see Sparkie pick up 6k for fin 3rd. ;) I had always felt that Spark Plug was an unfortunate name for a Race Horse but have changed my mind.;)
     
  31. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Chelt 2:05 1 Dusky Legend 2 Verdana Blue 3 Deauville Crystal
    Chelt 3:15 1 Indian Stream 2 Carnspindle 3 Miss Crick
    Chelt 3:50 1 Upswing 2 Coologue 3 Virak
    Chelt 4:20 1 Solstice Star 2 Mr Clarkson 3 Two Swallows

    Probables
    Chelt 2:05 1 Deauville Crysta 2 Brillare Momento 3 Smaoineamh Alainn l
    Chelt 3:15 1 Carnspindle 2 Mariah's Legend 3 Miss Crick
    Chelt 3:50 1 Upswing 2 Talk Of The South 3 Virak
    Chelt 4:20 1 Mr Clarkson 2 Two Swallows 3 Seas Of Green


    Again hard to find anything that defies its rating hence its price leaves very little in the way of value.

    2:05 & 3:15 did seriously consider backing the top two rated, as once again it looks like the prices are going to be to tight, and I must try to look at the shorter priced horses. In the end what put me off is the fact both had hard races last time out, and as the runs where better than most expected how much did it take out of them? While I do have a tendency to favour females in long distance races I have no idea if they can recover faster than males after a hard race.
    3:50 Again the prices are to tight
    4:20 Solstice Star is the only runner today that is priced to interest me. A long way ahead of these on class and course will be fine, going and distance maybe a problem but hoping the class will carry the day. I do find it hard to think the trainer would risk what must be one of his better horses on unsuitable firm ground. There again he does have a problem in what to do with this horse as he is exposed over the shorter distance with hurdles and chasing didn't seem to be an answer. Solstice Star small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  32. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    Solitice looks to be held by the handicapper, last handicap hurdle win was off 127 and LTO performed with credit, off 132, but has been pushed up again for that performance to 135
     
  33. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 2:30 1 Guard Of Honour 2 Swashbuckle 3 Havana Beat
    Ayr 3:50 1 Drumlee Sunset 2 Theinval 3 Warriors Tale
    Newb 4:10 1 Chessman 2 Omran 3 Dark Destroyer
    Ayr 4:50 1 Rons Dream 2 Timeforwest 3 Happy Diva

    Probables
    Newb 2:30 1 Swashbuckle 2 Rainbow Dreamer 3 Warrior Of Light
    Ayr 3:50 1 Warriors Tale 2 Katgary 3 Drumlee Sunset
    Newb 4:10 1 Dark Destroyer 2 Chessman 3 Omran
    Ayr 4:50 1 Timeforwest 2 Wyfield Rose 3 Elusive Theatre


    Here we go again, well perhaps it should be here I go again, nothing stands out for me again today.

    2:30 On my figures the best rated have to find their form, or at least fulfill their potential. I have Havana Beat the class horse by a distance but he has failed to live up to those figures too many times for me to trust him until he confirms he can get somewhere near them again.
    3:50 Did have a good look at Drumlee Sunset but decided against as his best form has been on undulating course and price doesn't really allow for any doubts with three others close up class wise. Warriors Tale is the strongest probable and the course shouldn't be a problem, but again the price is to tight for me.
    4:10 the rankings for this are based purely on the probable scores but as the probables have been holding their own that may not be a bad thing!! However when I look at the prices only Dark Destroyer interests me but although rated the strongest probable I have serious doubts about him being able to show a profit in this today.
    4:50 Again I have a clear class horse in the shape of Rons Dream, this mare won the race last season so course and time of year should not be a problem. This is a fair drop in class from her last two runs and a return to this track suggests this would have been a target. Not sure if it's greed but I would want a much better price than that being offered for the place as there are several big dangers close up in the rankings.
    Be Lucky
     
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  34. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ayr 1:40 1 Final Nudge 2 Delusionofgrandeur 3 Keltus
    Newb 1:55 1 Second Step 2 Crimean Tatar 3 Midterm
    Newb 2:30 1 Glitter Girl 2 Promising 3 Queen Kindly
    Ayr 2:45 1 L'ami Serge 2 Peace And Co 3 Ozzie The Oscar
    Newb 3:05 1 Dream Castle 2 War Secretary 3 Zainhom
    Ayr 3:20 1 Double W's 2 Vaniteux 3 Yorkist
    Newb 3:40 1 Fanciful Angel 2 Chelsea Lad 3 Donncha
    Ayr 3:55 1 Missed Approach 2 Seldom Inn 3 Premier Bond
    Ayr 4:30 1 Kalondra 2 Connetable 3 The Dutchman

    Probables
    Ayr 1:40 1 Final Nudge 2 Delusionofgrandeur 3 Keltus
    Newb 1:55 1 Crimean Tatar 2 Dal Harraild 3 Chemical Charge
    Newb 2:30 1 Glitter Girl 2 Promising 3 Dabyah
    Ayr 2:45 1 London Prize 2 Tommy Silver 3 L'ami Serge
    Newb 3:05 1 Dream Castle 2 War Secretary 3 Barney Roy
    Ayr 3:20 1 Ifandbutwhynot 2 Double W's 3 Apterix
    Newb 3:40 1 George William 2 Chelsea Lad 3 Mountain Rescue
    Ayr 3:55 1 Battle Of Shiloh 2 Dancing Shadow 3 Dawson City
    Ayr 4:30 1 Hollies Pearl 2 Whatduhavtoget 3 Beer Goggles

    Far to many races to go through in comfort. The first three Newbury races have had a line put through them. Two of them because nothing has an ability rating the way I work and the first race looks more than a little tricky, and there are other races to interest me

    2:45 Sceau Royal was my bet for the Champion Hurdle and although he did have a Cheltenham win against his name I wasn't really convinced he was better over a stiff course. The main problem was I never really thought the stable had it right re the favourite and wanted to take him on. What better than taking the stable outsider. I make Sceau Royal the class horse in this and I think the course is more suitable than Cheltenham, while I think the dangers all have performed to their best on stiff courses,. I'm backing Sceau Royal a straight e/w well win and place but to the same stake.
    3:40 This presented me with a real problem as Master Carpenter was a bet last time out and although there was no pick up I thought he ran a blinder. Ok the jockey could have done with a little more experience and followed the experienced riders into the middle of the course. Today I don't really know what to make of his draw as he could yet again get trapped unless the field move into the middle. I really do think this horse is capable of picking up a nice prize. Just t
    2 Connetable 3 The Dutchman

    Far to many races to go through in comfort. The first three Newbury races have had a line put through them. Two of them because nothing has an ability rating the way I work and the first race looks more than a little tricky, and there are other races to interest me

    2:45 Sceau Royal was my bet for the Champion Hurdle and although he did have a Cheltenham win against his name I wasn't really convinced he was better over a stiff course. The main problem was I never really thought the stable had it right re the favourite and wanted to take him on. What better than taking the stable outsider. I make Sceau Royal the class horse in this and I think the course is more suitable than Cheltenham, while I think the dangers all have performed to their best on stiff courses,. I'm backing Sceau Royal a straight e/w well win and place but to the same stake.
    3:40 This presented me with a real problem as Master Carpenter was a bet last time out and although there was no pick up I thought he ran a blinder. Ok the jockey could have done with a little more experience and followed the experienced riders into the middle of the course. Today I don't really know what to make of his draw as he could yet again get trapped unless the field move into the middle. I really do think this horse is capable of picking up a nice prize. Just to add to the puzzle I have marked Fanciful Angel down as a horse to look out for this season, based on the fact he nearly always puts in a form run and the competition and going all seem to be handled quite well the only thing that puts him off is when there is soft in the going conditions . I'm backing both small win loaded place and splitting the stake between them.
    3:55 This race has been good to me in the past and I was expecting See You At Midnight to run in this again. He isn't but the trainer has entered another horse who claims the class tag Seldom Inn, however it is very close class wise between him and Missed Approach. Both are improving with form in a higher class than this. Seldom Inn seems to need soft in the going and it is advertised as good to soft. Both are nice prices so once again backing both small win loaded place to split stakes.

    Be Lucky
     
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  35. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Epsom 2:45 1 Permian 2 Cracksman 3 Tartini
    Epsom 3:50 1 Faithful Creek 2 Speed Company 3 Banditry

    Probables
    Epsom 2:45 1 Cracksman 2 Tartini 3 Youmkin
    Epsom 3:50 1 Banditry 2 Speed Company 3 Faithful Creek


    2:45 Once again I'm not really happy with the price being offered on Permian. Much like his run on the 14th April he is the only runner with an entry on the d/base and the way I work the figures that run is a slight improvement on his rating. While I put very little value on pedigrees, and the cost of horses I still think Permian has it all to do with the potential class in this race. Add in for me there is a doubt about the course being suitable I think he will be hard pushed to even gain a place.
    3:50 A little while ago I may have taken a chance with a couple of the lower weighted horses in this as I do like course form at Epsom, that or proven form from one of the very few undulating speed courses but the cross check does make me hesitate. Faithful Creek does have course form all be it in much lower class and a long time ago. But the cross check does quite clearly rule him out. Banditry is a little closer to being acceptable on that check, and his course form is a little more recent but again in a lower class. So nothing today just a nice cold cider and a peaceful afternoon.

    Basically I have only posted this to save the need for e-mails asking what/who are the probables as quite a few seem to be following them. I have even had e-mails saying just because you can't find a selection/bet doesn't mean no one can!!

    Be Lucky
     
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  36. mick

    mick Dam

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    None of my business really @mtoto but i just felt the need to ask why are these people not posting on here as opposed to using PMs.:confused:
     
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  37. jm77

    jm77 Yearling

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    And surely they are just betting the probables blind - otherwise if they can find a selection amongst the probables when you can't, surely they would have a method of their own?
     
  38. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Sand 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 First Up 3 Contrast
    Sand 2:20 1 My Dream Boat 2 Ulysses 3 Arthenus
    Sand 3:30 1 Jallota 2 Kool Kompany 3 Dawn Of Hope

    Probables
    Sand 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 First Up 3 Jupiter Light
    Sand 2:20 1 Royal Artillery 2 Ulysses 3 Deauville
    Sand 3:30 1 Kool Kompany 2 Sovereign Debt 3 Dawn Of Hope


    Having a rough day so giving it a miss although can't say anything stood out or caught my eye!!

    None of my business really mtoto but i just felt the need to ask why are these people not posting on here as opposed to using PMs.:confused:

    @mick To be honest I wasn't going to answer this as it may offend some on here. Some, not all have been members and are like me not that happy with the way the forum has progressed. One answered with the comment why should we contribute to a forum where much of the intelligent stuff is hidden?
    I'm quite often asked why I carry on posting when it is obvious I'm not happy with the hidden postings and my answer to that is simply I'm astounded by the amount of work and effort Ark puts into this forum, and I'm just sad it could be even better if it wasn't for a few hiding their thoughts ideas from folk who do make an effort to join in or would if others were a little more open. I can see there are far too many lurkers but the answer to that is delete anyone how doesn't contribute within a certain time etc. not to penalise some who just may have something interesting to say but think why should they when others hide their thoughts away.

    And surely they are just betting the probables blind - otherwise if they can find a selection amongst the probables when you can't, surely they would have
    a method of their own?


    @jm77 That is the problem for some they can find selections where there are none for me. Some are more than happy to back the shorter priced horses and don't put as much emphasis on course configuration as me. I have explained how the probables are formulated to some but not all, and for some reason I don't really understand others often seem to come up with a different short list.

    Be Lucky
     
  39. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto cheers for your reply,and best wishes for feeling better soon.
     
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  40. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I hope that you are feeling better soon @mtoto
     
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