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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto congrats MC lovely winner.;)
     
  2. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well Done @mtoto a well handicapped horse won

    Also had the Best SS Master Rating and Top Master + Average
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
  3. OnTheNod

    OnTheNod Colt

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    Well Done from me as well @mtoto as you say each to their own way of doing things.
     
  4. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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    Cracking result in the 2.20 York @mtoto.
     
  5. arkle55

    arkle55 Mare

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  6. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 3:30 1 Benbatl 2 Permian 3 Crystal Ocean
    York 4:05 1 Firmament 2 Thikriyaat 3 Another Touch

    Probables
    York 3:30 1 Crystal Ocean 2 Permian 3 Forest Ranger
    York 4:05 1 Chelsea Lad 2 Another Touch 3 Firmament

    NB somehow the top rated in the race Speed Company was missed of sorry if it caused any problems :idk:


    3:30 The only horse that interests me price wise is Permian. Looking at it the best he could manage even with all the luck in the world is a third place and his place price isn't worth the risk.
    4:05 This is tricky, Thikriyaat and Top Notch Tonto are the class horses . Before I could back Thikriyaat I would need some proof his heart was up to scratch and that can't really be known until it and the horse come under pressure. Top Notch Tonto has improved slightly in his last run but still has a lot to find to warrant using the old figures. Firmament does have proven form on this course but his profile says he is best on a stiff course Ascot being the most favoured. He does hold an entry in Ireland but I would think he will be saved for the Royal meeting and this draw doesn't look to do much to help him today. Another Touch is another with possible doubts re the going, the flat speed course should not be a problem though. He is improving and this is only a slight rise in class . Another not favoured by the draw but hopefully the jockey will have the experience to deal with it. With the draw worry I would want 3/1 the place to warrant the risk so if that price can be obtained small win loaded place otherwise no bet.

    Well Done a well handicapped horse won.

    @Chesham
    That is the beauty of horse racing, it worked for both of us as I still didn't look at weight and still found the winner

    Be Lucky
     
    nagwa, pinemarten and Chesham like this.
  7. nagwa

    nagwa Colt

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    good winners mtoto
     
  8. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 3:30 1 Dartmouth 2 Muntahaa 3 Crimean Tatar
    York 4:05 1 Cymro 2 Gibbs Hill 3 Burguillos

    Probables
    York 3:30 1 Muntahaa 2 Marmelo 3 Dartmouth
    York 4:05 1 Gibbs Hill 2 Burguillos 3 Ashkoul


    3:30 Prices to tight for me, which is a bit of a pity as I do have a question mark against the likely favourite Dartmouth. This is based on the track and to a certain extent going. Ascot stiff right handed is nothing like York and on soft(er) going on a speed course like York he can be questioned. Muntahaa is the opposite he is better on firm going on speed courses and the soft has given him problems on stiff courses. After some thought I giving the race a miss but a surprise could well be on the cards.
    4:05 Cymro Is the only runner in this with proven form in a higher class all be it only just. Going and trip look ok and the only problem is the price, place price that is. Have to admit I was tempted to back him just for the win but I have seen far to many fail when it didn't look likely. Both of the next two in the ranking are there based on their probables figures and both seem to prefer stiff right hand course when performing on the turf. I'm going to leave it just hope it isn't just down to greed but I'm hesitant to stop doing something that has stood me in good stead for some time. Making a profit the safest way possible!!

    Be Lucky
     
  9. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 2:55 1 Time To Study 2 Mucho Applause 3 Glorious Forever
    Newb 3:30 1 Ribchester 2 Galileo Gold 3 Aclaim
    Newb 5:10 1 El Hayem 2 Sinfonietta 3 Grand Inquisitor

    Probables
    Newb 2:55 1 Time To Study 2 Mister Blue Sky 3 Mucho Applause 3 Glorious Forever
    Newb 3:30 1 Aclaim 2 Somehow 3 Lightning Spear
    Newb 5:10 1 Zlatan 2 Sinfonietta 3 El Hayem


    2:55 Field of unexposed three year olds with very little to go on. Here I'm relying purely on the probables rankings and while Time To Study is the strongest on the bare figures he is giving away race fitness, and there is a possible doubt re the course. Mucho Applause has no worries about fitness but once again the course may be a problem as his best so far has been on stiff courses. Glorious Forever is another who is race fit and the course and going should be no problem. Another that caught my eye is Mister Blue Sky, he also is race fit and course /going should suit at the price I was interested until the cross check put me off. No bet
    3:30 While this could be a very good race to watch there is nothing of interest betting wise for me.
    5:10 El Hayem at the moment I'm not convinced El Hayem isn't just another Stout talking/hype horse. While what the official handicapper's thoughts don't have any baring on my workings I do notice even with the media hype his OR hasn't actualy improved from last season. This added in with the slow starts and question marks re going make him a suitable candidate to take on At first I thought Sinfonietta maybe the one to do it with as the course,and going looked fine but the price reflects that. However on re working the race after finding a blip on the d/base I now find Grand Inquisitor is the second best horse class wise., and this looks to be the first time the going is suitable. There is a slight doubt re course as his best so far has been on a turning course, but at the price it suggest someone MAYBE interested in his chances. Grand Inquisitor small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
    markfinn and nagwa like this.
  10. mick

    mick Dam

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    @mtoto I was interested in your 5.10 comments as Grand Inquisitor was the only one of interest to myself.There was some 28/1 aval which has now disappeared.I would not be concerned about the str course he has run some decent races over a str 7fur.My problem was the soft ground ,even though my rating comes from same plus he has won g-s i am not sure it best suits so decided to swerve the wager.I hope you collect but whatever the outcome i think he is now rated to win a decent hcap at some stage this season.
     
    nagwa likes this.
  11. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    5.10 El Hayem has the best MA + Av and is Top on @mtoto Rating. Lightly raced at 4 Y-O Is Ranked 1 on PR and Best Speed Fig over C&D

    Pedigree Nicks Good

    Screen Shot 2017-05-20 at 15.01.28.png
     
  12. iloveapunt

    iloveapunt Foal

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    I'm having a small interest in this race and Al Hayem is not even in my top four :eek:
    The shortest of my top four is Sinfonietta but I'm going with Mutarakez win & larger place with a small win saver on Raising Sand.
     
  13. arkle55

    arkle55 Mare

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    El Hayem, missed the break lto made up ground to go past winner Sound advice, SA then stalked EH. Final furlong EH went inside looked like he would win, SA went outside and finished the better. EH is running again very quickly, this race looks like a drop in class. EH should run his race, but i have not had time to look at the draw, so no bet for me.

    Arkle
     
    Chesham likes this.
  14. arkle55

    arkle55 Mare

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  15. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:20 1 Suegioo 2 Yorkidding 3 Swashbuckle
    York 2:40 1 Dal Harraild 2 Seamour 3 Harrison
    Hay 2:55 1 Indian Dandy 2 Naval Warfare 3 Mustarrid
    Chs 3:05 1 Fastnet Tempest 2 Sound Advice 3 Above The Rest
    God 3:10 1 Top Score 2 Horroob 3 Aardwolf
    God 4:20 1 Oriental Fox 2 Top Tug 3 Angel Gabrial

    Probables
    Hay 2:20 1 Velvet Revolution 2 Yorkidding 3 Swashbuckle
    York 2:40 1 Harrison 2 The Tartan Spartan 3 Alyssa
    Hay 2:55 1 Indian Dandy 2 Naval Warfare 3 Private Mission
    Chs 3:05 1 Fastnet Tempest 2 Mount Tahan 3 Ice Slice
    God 3:10 1 Horroob 2 Aardwolf 3 Hyde Park
    God 4:20 1 Batts Rock 2 Oriental Fox 3 Manjaam

    Selections for a race in the week were missed due to the internet playing up. That was also the reason I didn't get back to Ark and I will have to try again but I'm more than happy with the suggested outlay.


    When I start to work/look at the races I try very hard to look just at the figures and leave the form reading to the last job. So as I like long distance races and the most valuable the 2:20 was the starting point today.

    2:20 Suegioo is the clear class horse, and while it is some time since his last win and for that matter since he scored his best figures. He still had been recording figures strong enough to warrant an entry on the d/base. Seems to be quite versatile RE track and going. On the figures the only real danger looks to be Yorkidding and for some reason I do like the female of the species in long distance races. Read somewhere it something to do with them carrying more fat that helps the stamina, told the wife about that and got a slap for my troubles.:eek: His jockey booking also caught my eye. Have to admit while I don't really expect Suegioo to win unless he finds his old form from somewhere I do think he is well capable of a place. this is where greed kicks in as I will have to have a small win (just in case) as well as the loaded place.
    3:05 & 3:10 spent a little time looking at these two races. Fastnet Tempest at first glance ticks most of the box's but the price is silly tight as there are a couple of things that could go wrong for him in this. The main one being can/will he act to advantage on a tight course and while the draw is a favoured one will he have the early pace to hold a position? The price doesn't really allow for the risk
    3:10 Top Score holds all the aces figures wise but I have more than a few horse on this d/base who have gained their figures in really top class races and have failed live up to their potential. Again price too tight to be taking risks so will wait and see.

    Be Lucky
     
    jammy54 likes this.

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