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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:05 1 Mister Manduro 2 Cribbs Causeway 3 Humble Hero
    Sand 2:25 1 Gm Hopkins 2 Master The World 3 Naval Warfare
    Hay 3:15 1 Carntop 2 Brorocco 3 Baydar
    Sand 3:35 1 Lightning Spear 2 Eminent 3 Barney Roy
    Hay 5:00 1 Aljuljalah 2 Roman Holiday 3 Bint Arcano

    Probables
    Hay 2:05 1 Cribbs Causeway 2 Humble Hero 3 Zenon
    Sand 2:25 1 Naval Warfare 2 Greenside 3 Manson
    Hay 3:15 1 Big Country 2 Toulson 3 Kapstadt
    Sand 3:35 1Barney Roy 2 Cliffs Of Moher 3 Decorated Knight
    Hay 5:00 1 Roman Holiday 2 Bint Arcano 3 Aljuljalah


    Two races that look possible to find a profit in/from.

    2:25 Master The World was a saver bet for me at Ascot in June and the reason I wasn't particularly happy with him for that was the straight course, today there is a bend and that could suit him better. I make him the class horse and one of the six with proven form in a higher class. He only fails to be the class horse with the best recent form by a short head. To be honest I know nothing/very little about the young apprentice booked to ride him but a quick look at the trainer s he has been ridding for suggest he isn't there to make up the numbers. It maybe just splitting hairs but I do think the most likely danger on the figures Gm Hopkins is better on straight courses. Naval Warfare gains his ranking by being the strongest probable but class wise has plenty to find. He is only a three year old and has plenty of time to find the improvement. The stiff course, going and distance should be no problem IF he can act in this class. Out of the three year olds I would be happier to side with Rusumaat but the bet is Master The World small win loaded place.
    3:15 Carntop is one of the four horses with proven form in the same or higher class and I make his recent form the best of these. He was a bet for me at Epsom and have to say I didn't really feel he was put in the race to win at any time, race comments seem to offer excuses but even after the pick up I still felt it was a prep race to see if he was over his injury. His best form has been on undulating courses so far. Brorocco just fails to be one of the four and he is another that has produced his best on undulating course but unlike Carntop the cross check raises doubts. Baydar is the class horse but seems to have lost the way. Excuses can be made for the last couple of runs as the course and going didn't favour him, but the going is still a problem today. Carntop small win loaded place.

    Much as I like Eminent and think this really is the right race for him I'm giving him a miss as I just couldn't get a reasonable price about him :mad:

    Be Lucky
     
  2. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 1:50 1 Raheen House 2 Wolf Country 3 Atty Persse
    Newm 5:05 1 Larchmont Lad 2 D'bai 3 Ronald R

    Probables

    Newm 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 Raheen House 3 Wolf Country
    Newm 5:05 1 Ronald R 2 D'bai 3 Tricorn


    Nothing here for me today as the prices on offer match the rating too closely for there to be much value.

    1:50 As Atty Persse the likely favourite doesn't to date hold an entry on the b/base I thought there might be some value on offer, but the next two in the ratings are to short to be of real interest. Atty looks to have a right hand bias but the stiff course should be ok. He could well win this but for me his price is really off putting, plus the fact he is going up against two horses with proven form in higher class . On my figures Raheen House is improving and the stiff course should hold no fears. As said before the price is too tight for me. Wolf Country another who is improving but with him there are a couple of question marks re going and and course, nothing major but still questions that haven't been asked before. That is a big difference to being asked the question after failing in the past. Again I would want a better price to be asking those question with money on the line. No bet
    5:05 Again a no bet race. Before I had even seen the s/f I had marked Ronald R down as a horse to look out for, but I wasn't thinking about a race quite like this, more a top class hcp. As he hasn't made the d/base I do wonder if the official handicapper has slightly flatter him with the rise in his OR. If a big hcp is the target a win here would not be a help, and while Larchmont Lad is the class horse I think D'bai is a bigger danger.

    Be Lucky
     
  3. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 1:50 1 Fawaareq 2 Parfait 3 War Glory
    Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Leshlaa 3 Atkinson Grimshaw

    Probables
    Newm 1:50 1 Makzeem 2 Brigliadoro 3 Fawaareq
    Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Atkinson Grimshaw 3 Daawy


    So many meetings and very little to interest me betting wise.

    1:50 as a betting medium I don't like these consolation races as one can never be quite sure if the top weights were really being aimed at the real thing with a lower weight. This race today is quite a classy affair with six horse with proven form in higher class races and another three only just under the bench mark. I have joint top on class, Fawaareq and War Glory with Suzi's Connoisseur breathing down their necks. Fawaareq ticks many of the box's course, distance etc and is versatile going wise. Reads as if this is a target and the only/main thing that putts me of is the price on offer. The course doesn't look quite right for War Glory as his best to-date has been on flat "speed" courses. Suzi's Connoisseur has looked to be one of the unluckiest horses in training the amount of times he has been hampered in the closing stages. He has run well in this race before but I do feel perhaps his chance has pasted him by. In saying that the conditions are just about right for him stiff 7f on good/firm going. All this and still we have to consider Parfait, this young improving horse is the best of the higher rated horses based on recent form, and is joint top rated only losing out on count back. The stiff course should be no problem and the seven looks fair enough. My worry with him is this is a quick(ish) return to the track after two/three possibly hard races and until they get back on the track nobody knows what has been taken out of them. I don't ever mind taking on a big/dangerous field but the price of the selection has to be worth the risk and here I don't feel the price truly reflects Fawaareq's chances. No BET
    3:00 Only one runner has an entry on the d/base and even he is going up in class. Only Atkinson Grimshaw is of interest of the top three, with the prices on offer, and much as I like the trainer I'm surprised he is running on this course I would have thought York would suit better if he really is fit and ready. Think this could well be a prep and will look out for him if he does anything that looks a bit interesting. NO bet
    Another blank day but Saturday is just around the corner and that looks full of possibilities.

    Be Lucky
     
    ArkRoyal, markfinn and dave58 like this.
  4. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 1:55 1 First Selection 2 Chiefofchiefs 3 Constantino
    Newm 2:15 1 Tropical Rock 2 Alouja 3 On Her Toes
    Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Afaak 3 City Of Joy
    Chest 3:00 1 Jungle Cat 2 Jallota 3 Kool Kompany
    York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Mistiroc 3 Victory Bond
    Newm 3:25 1 Tashweeq 2 Gossiping 3 Tony Curtis
    Ascot 5:00 1 Bin Battuta 2 Cape Coast 3 Special Relation

    Probables
    York 1:55 1 Chiefofchiefs 2 Constantino 3 Twin Appeal
    Newm 2:15 1 On Her Toes 2Inshiraah 3 Alouja
    Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Hajaj 3 Afaak
    Chest 3:00 1 Orangey Red 2Viscount Barfield 3 Jungle Cat
    York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Victory Bond 3 Ballet Concerto
    Newm 3:25 1 Gossiping 2 Flaming Spear 3 Robero
    Ascot 5:00 1 Cape Coast 2 Special Relation 3 Galactic Prince


    1:50 The main reason I looked at this race is the class figures for First Selection, then I was quite intrigued by the campaign the trainer was following. For all the world it looks like prep races, but is it for this race or the Goodwood entry? Personally I think this should be the target as I can't see any reason Goodwood would suit better. Both of the next two in the rankings have plenty to find class wise and at four years old and with a few runs under their belts still haven't managed to register an entry on the d/base. As there are a couple of doubts re First Selection time since last win (although his figures are not that old) and perhaps the going a small win loaded place to half stakes is the play.
    3:05 Have to admit this race has me puzzled and I have read a few trends columns that giveSnoano no or very little chance. For me the form/profile just doesn't agree. As his best figures were gained at Ascot I did wonder if he needed a stiff course toperform but he does having winning form at this course. I make him the best recent form horse with proven form in the same or higher class and there are nine of these to choose from. Victory Bond is one of those nine and I make him a big danger and his figures were scored on this course but his trainer is well known for liking York and the price reflects this Snoano small win loaded place.
    3:25 Another top hcp and once again the prices on offer about the top few in the rankings are too tight for me. The one exception here is Tony Curtis and I make him the class horse today.He achieved his figures on a stiff course, but not sure if he can handle a straight course . Because of this the bet is small win loaded place to half stakes.

    Be Lucky
     
    pinemarten, nagwa and formtheory like this.
  5. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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    Great place bet with TC @mtoto.

    Excellent day for the probable's.
     
  6. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 1:50 1 Remarkable 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
    Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2 Skiffle 3 Apphia
    Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Master The World 3 Highland Colori
    Rip 4:05 1 Sennockian Star 2 Mukhayyam 3 Fleeting Visit

    Probables
    Newb 1:50 1 Realize 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
    Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2God Given 3 Gallifrey
    Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Masham Star 3 Ballard Down
    Rip 4:05 1 Mukhayyam 2 Fleeting Visit 3 Sennockian Star


    1:50 Prices reflect the ranking leaving little or no value. Remarkable is the class horse and the only runner with proven form in the same or higher class. Problem with him is for me two fold, first his best seems to be kept for Ascot and then the jockey trainer combination usually lead to a shorter price than the form warrants. There has to be a question mark against Rusumaat re the going as well as having something to find class wise. Straight Right's ranking is down to his probable score and after only one run in England very hard to get a true line on. Many questions that need answering the main one is will he be able to handle the different running style of the British racing? As he was outclassed his last race told/showed us nothing of any value. Non bet
    2:40 Of the top three in the ratings only Skiffle has an entry in the d/base and before I could even consider her I would need to see something to show she was over her injury. Again no bet.
    3:50 Classiest race of the day for me with five runners with proven form in higher class than today's race. I have Master The World as the class horse by some distance, I also make him the horse with the best recent form from these five. His consistency figures let him down but I do make his last three runs over this distance as form runs. I do have a slight doubt about his ability to produce his very best on a straight course. As I have the same doubts about Examiner I'm reasonably happy to take the fact that Examiner was beaten over a straight course by Master The World as proof in this race of the two MTW will/can be good enough today. After looking at the prices I have decided to back both Master The World and Examiner to win and forget the place aspect as the place prices are a little tight.
    4:05 Of these Sennockian Star is the clear class horse but the figures are starting to get quite old. While I can see his recent figures are some way below his old mark they are still good enough to make him the class horse here. I can't find anything to take him on but I can't/don't trust him to put in a performance that even the recent figures suggest No bet

    Great place bet with TC

    @pinemarten Glad to see you are still around. Yes I was quite happy with Tony Curtis for me it just goes to show the general public/punters don't know it all and some nice prices can be found if one goes looking for them. I know First Selection didn't show a return but he was right in the action in the last furlong and only beaten just over a length again at a nice price 33/1 I was told many years ago no one could find big priced winners every day but they can't ever be found if you only follow the market. Re the probables even though they come from the very basic stats they are good enough as a stand alone method. I still 100% convinced this is how VDW found some of his winners, the ones that the ability rating whatever one was used, didn't find /high light.
    Still can't see the point of having a first picture if a second one just ignores the first, or goes off at a completely different tangent. I live in hopes the someone will give me a sensible answer to that question. Surely the point of having a second picture is to highlight any possible flaws in the first one, other wise it is just a second method/idea not picture ?

    Be Lucky
     
    nagwa and pinemarten like this.
  7. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    @mtoto.
    you got the winner in every race and all at decent prices. Good to see you are still around and doing better than ever.

    regards
    nellsman
     

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