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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:05 1 Mister Manduro 2 Cribbs Causeway 3 Humble Hero
    Sand 2:25 1 Gm Hopkins 2 Master The World 3 Naval Warfare
    Hay 3:15 1 Carntop 2 Brorocco 3 Baydar
    Sand 3:35 1 Lightning Spear 2 Eminent 3 Barney Roy
    Hay 5:00 1 Aljuljalah 2 Roman Holiday 3 Bint Arcano

    Probables
    Hay 2:05 1 Cribbs Causeway 2 Humble Hero 3 Zenon
    Sand 2:25 1 Naval Warfare 2 Greenside 3 Manson
    Hay 3:15 1 Big Country 2 Toulson 3 Kapstadt
    Sand 3:35 1Barney Roy 2 Cliffs Of Moher 3 Decorated Knight
    Hay 5:00 1 Roman Holiday 2 Bint Arcano 3 Aljuljalah


    Two races that look possible to find a profit in/from.

    2:25 Master The World was a saver bet for me at Ascot in June and the reason I wasn't particularly happy with him for that was the straight course, today there is a bend and that could suit him better. I make him the class horse and one of the six with proven form in a higher class. He only fails to be the class horse with the best recent form by a short head. To be honest I know nothing/very little about the young apprentice booked to ride him but a quick look at the trainer s he has been ridding for suggest he isn't there to make up the numbers. It maybe just splitting hairs but I do think the most likely danger on the figures Gm Hopkins is better on straight courses. Naval Warfare gains his ranking by being the strongest probable but class wise has plenty to find. He is only a three year old and has plenty of time to find the improvement. The stiff course, going and distance should be no problem IF he can act in this class. Out of the three year olds I would be happier to side with Rusumaat but the bet is Master The World small win loaded place.
    3:15 Carntop is one of the four horses with proven form in the same or higher class and I make his recent form the best of these. He was a bet for me at Epsom and have to say I didn't really feel he was put in the race to win at any time, race comments seem to offer excuses but even after the pick up I still felt it was a prep race to see if he was over his injury. His best form has been on undulating courses so far. Brorocco just fails to be one of the four and he is another that has produced his best on undulating course but unlike Carntop the cross check raises doubts. Baydar is the class horse but seems to have lost the way. Excuses can be made for the last couple of runs as the course and going didn't favour him, but the going is still a problem today. Carntop small win loaded place.

    Much as I like Eminent and think this really is the right race for him I'm giving him a miss as I just couldn't get a reasonable price about him :mad:

    Be Lucky
     
  2. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 1:50 1 Raheen House 2 Wolf Country 3 Atty Persse
    Newm 5:05 1 Larchmont Lad 2 D'bai 3 Ronald R

    Probables

    Newm 1:50 1 Atty Persse 2 Raheen House 3 Wolf Country
    Newm 5:05 1 Ronald R 2 D'bai 3 Tricorn


    Nothing here for me today as the prices on offer match the rating too closely for there to be much value.

    1:50 As Atty Persse the likely favourite doesn't to date hold an entry on the b/base I thought there might be some value on offer, but the next two in the ratings are to short to be of real interest. Atty looks to have a right hand bias but the stiff course should be ok. He could well win this but for me his price is really off putting, plus the fact he is going up against two horses with proven form in higher class . On my figures Raheen House is improving and the stiff course should hold no fears. As said before the price is too tight for me. Wolf Country another who is improving but with him there are a couple of question marks re going and and course, nothing major but still questions that haven't been asked before. That is a big difference to being asked the question after failing in the past. Again I would want a better price to be asking those question with money on the line. No bet
    5:05 Again a no bet race. Before I had even seen the s/f I had marked Ronald R down as a horse to look out for, but I wasn't thinking about a race quite like this, more a top class hcp. As he hasn't made the d/base I do wonder if the official handicapper has slightly flatter him with the rise in his OR. If a big hcp is the target a win here would not be a help, and while Larchmont Lad is the class horse I think D'bai is a bigger danger.

    Be Lucky
     
  3. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 1:50 1 Fawaareq 2 Parfait 3 War Glory
    Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Leshlaa 3 Atkinson Grimshaw

    Probables
    Newm 1:50 1 Makzeem 2 Brigliadoro 3 Fawaareq
    Newm 3:00 1 Titi Makfi 2 Atkinson Grimshaw 3 Daawy


    So many meetings and very little to interest me betting wise.

    1:50 as a betting medium I don't like these consolation races as one can never be quite sure if the top weights were really being aimed at the real thing with a lower weight. This race today is quite a classy affair with six horse with proven form in higher class races and another three only just under the bench mark. I have joint top on class, Fawaareq and War Glory with Suzi's Connoisseur breathing down their necks. Fawaareq ticks many of the box's course, distance etc and is versatile going wise. Reads as if this is a target and the only/main thing that putts me of is the price on offer. The course doesn't look quite right for War Glory as his best to-date has been on flat "speed" courses. Suzi's Connoisseur has looked to be one of the unluckiest horses in training the amount of times he has been hampered in the closing stages. He has run well in this race before but I do feel perhaps his chance has pasted him by. In saying that the conditions are just about right for him stiff 7f on good/firm going. All this and still we have to consider Parfait, this young improving horse is the best of the higher rated horses based on recent form, and is joint top rated only losing out on count back. The stiff course should be no problem and the seven looks fair enough. My worry with him is this is a quick(ish) return to the track after two/three possibly hard races and until they get back on the track nobody knows what has been taken out of them. I don't ever mind taking on a big/dangerous field but the price of the selection has to be worth the risk and here I don't feel the price truly reflects Fawaareq's chances. No BET
    3:00 Only one runner has an entry on the d/base and even he is going up in class. Only Atkinson Grimshaw is of interest of the top three, with the prices on offer, and much as I like the trainer I'm surprised he is running on this course I would have thought York would suit better if he really is fit and ready. Think this could well be a prep and will look out for him if he does anything that looks a bit interesting. NO bet
    Another blank day but Saturday is just around the corner and that looks full of possibilities.

    Be Lucky
     
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  4. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 1:55 1 First Selection 2 Chiefofchiefs 3 Constantino
    Newm 2:15 1 Tropical Rock 2 Alouja 3 On Her Toes
    Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Afaak 3 City Of Joy
    Chest 3:00 1 Jungle Cat 2 Jallota 3 Kool Kompany
    York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Mistiroc 3 Victory Bond
    Newm 3:25 1 Tashweeq 2 Gossiping 3 Tony Curtis
    Ascot 5:00 1 Bin Battuta 2 Cape Coast 3 Special Relation

    Probables
    York 1:55 1 Chiefofchiefs 2 Constantino 3 Twin Appeal
    Newm 2:15 1 On Her Toes 2Inshiraah 3 Alouja
    Newm 2:50 1 Mountain Angel 2 Hajaj 3 Afaak
    Chest 3:00 1 Orangey Red 2Viscount Barfield 3 Jungle Cat
    York 3:05 1 Snoano 2 Victory Bond 3 Ballet Concerto
    Newm 3:25 1 Gossiping 2 Flaming Spear 3 Robero
    Ascot 5:00 1 Cape Coast 2 Special Relation 3 Galactic Prince


    1:50 The main reason I looked at this race is the class figures for First Selection, then I was quite intrigued by the campaign the trainer was following. For all the world it looks like prep races, but is it for this race or the Goodwood entry? Personally I think this should be the target as I can't see any reason Goodwood would suit better. Both of the next two in the rankings have plenty to find class wise and at four years old and with a few runs under their belts still haven't managed to register an entry on the d/base. As there are a couple of doubts re First Selection time since last win (although his figures are not that old) and perhaps the going a small win loaded place to half stakes is the play.
    3:05 Have to admit this race has me puzzled and I have read a few trends columns that giveSnoano no or very little chance. For me the form/profile just doesn't agree. As his best figures were gained at Ascot I did wonder if he needed a stiff course toperform but he does having winning form at this course. I make him the best recent form horse with proven form in the same or higher class and there are nine of these to choose from. Victory Bond is one of those nine and I make him a big danger and his figures were scored on this course but his trainer is well known for liking York and the price reflects this Snoano small win loaded place.
    3:25 Another top hcp and once again the prices on offer about the top few in the rankings are too tight for me. The one exception here is Tony Curtis and I make him the class horse today.He achieved his figures on a stiff course, but not sure if he can handle a straight course . Because of this the bet is small win loaded place to half stakes.

    Be Lucky
     
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  5. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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    Great place bet with TC @mtoto.

    Excellent day for the probable's.
     
  6. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 1:50 1 Remarkable 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
    Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2 Skiffle 3 Apphia
    Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Master The World 3 Highland Colori
    Rip 4:05 1 Sennockian Star 2 Mukhayyam 3 Fleeting Visit

    Probables
    Newb 1:50 1 Realize 2 Straight Right 3 Rusumaat
    Newm 2:40 1 High Hopes 2God Given 3 Gallifrey
    Newm 3:50 1 Examiner 2 Masham Star 3 Ballard Down
    Rip 4:05 1 Mukhayyam 2 Fleeting Visit 3 Sennockian Star


    1:50 Prices reflect the ranking leaving little or no value. Remarkable is the class horse and the only runner with proven form in the same or higher class. Problem with him is for me two fold, first his best seems to be kept for Ascot and then the jockey trainer combination usually lead to a shorter price than the form warrants. There has to be a question mark against Rusumaat re the going as well as having something to find class wise. Straight Right's ranking is down to his probable score and after only one run in England very hard to get a true line on. Many questions that need answering the main one is will he be able to handle the different running style of the British racing? As he was outclassed his last race told/showed us nothing of any value. Non bet
    2:40 Of the top three in the ratings only Skiffle has an entry in the d/base and before I could even consider her I would need to see something to show she was over her injury. Again no bet.
    3:50 Classiest race of the day for me with five runners with proven form in higher class than today's race. I have Master The World as the class horse by some distance, I also make him the horse with the best recent form from these five. His consistency figures let him down but I do make his last three runs over this distance as form runs. I do have a slight doubt about his ability to produce his very best on a straight course. As I have the same doubts about Examiner I'm reasonably happy to take the fact that Examiner was beaten over a straight course by Master The World as proof in this race of the two MTW will/can be good enough today. After looking at the prices I have decided to back both Master The World and Examiner to win and forget the place aspect as the place prices are a little tight.
    4:05 Of these Sennockian Star is the clear class horse but the figures are starting to get quite old. While I can see his recent figures are some way below his old mark they are still good enough to make him the class horse here. I can't find anything to take him on but I can't/don't trust him to put in a performance that even the recent figures suggest No bet

    Great place bet with TC

    @pinemarten Glad to see you are still around. Yes I was quite happy with Tony Curtis for me it just goes to show the general public/punters don't know it all and some nice prices can be found if one goes looking for them. I know First Selection didn't show a return but he was right in the action in the last furlong and only beaten just over a length again at a nice price 33/1 I was told many years ago no one could find big priced winners every day but they can't ever be found if you only follow the market. Re the probables even though they come from the very basic stats they are good enough as a stand alone method. I still 100% convinced this is how VDW found some of his winners, the ones that the ability rating whatever one was used, didn't find /high light.
    Still can't see the point of having a first picture if a second one just ignores the first, or goes off at a completely different tangent. I live in hopes the someone will give me a sensible answer to that question. Surely the point of having a second picture is to highlight any possible flaws in the first one, other wise it is just a second method/idea not picture ?

    Be Lucky
     
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  7. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    @mtoto.
    you got the winner in every race and all at decent prices. Good to see you are still around and doing better than ever.

    regards
    nellsman
     
  8. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Can I ask you was it a form run the VDW way or was it a run to ignore the VDW way? I think the latter.

    @Nellsman Re the Ekbalco question. I know the question wasn't aimed at me but for peace of mind I keep away from the thread you asked the question on. Can I ask why you think that last run had to be a form run? Personally I think it is just another of the myths that have been brought by others into the methods. Consistency and form are two different elements and for me Ekbalco had both, he was consistent i.e one of the six lowest for consistency based on his form figures, in the forecast , and had shown he had the form/ability. Fair enough VDW did later give examples where the last run was the key but there was NO mention of consistency involved in it.

    There was a chap who used the user name of Nellsman on another forum is that you? If so hello again, how you getting on with the puzzle? I would suggest you don't take too much notice of folk who say they have cracked it but still refuse to give up to date selections, talk is cheap when nothing can be proven one way or another.

    Be Lucky
     
  9. mick

    mick Dam

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    I do not recall the Ekbalco example but am assuming a poor run Lto.? When faced with this frequent occurrence then we punters have the option of digging deeper to seek what i call a VE Valid Excuse ,and sometimes this can be gleaned.Often the positive will then be points on the price.

    Many years ago when i was investigating the vdw methods one change i made was to form the basic consistency rating from the best two of the past three runs and i found this fig just as helpful on balance as the recommended past three all in.

    VEs can be simple - obvious or a more difficult time consuming find but i will share a true story from my early days which illustrates the obvious (with hindsight).I backed one at Ascot which i considered to be a good thing ,in truth staking more than i should have done.It fin 5th ! and i was left feeling bemused.This was > 40yrs ago and we punters where not so well informed during those times.

    Months later i was reading about a famous past race horse who was only beaten once and the writer suggested the cause was racing RH.I thought of my loser and on checking the same applied.Now the funny part ,i bought a stop watch and got a mate to time me doing laps of the local running track and my times running anti clockwise where consistently better than the opposite.

    Over the years if nothing else this knowledge has enabled me to swerve what would have been losing wagers,but more importantly when it can be evidenced as a probable VE for a poor Lto run has resulted in some very good value winning bets.These days i suspect that this example would appear obvious to any backer who treats there betting seriously but there are many others less overt which can be found if you are willing to implement the most important part of the VDW formula.........Hard Work.

    An additional thought............The biggest step forward in my punting knowledge was to read a book written by Paul Major which i bought several years before the first VDW letters where published.Anyone reading it will realize that many of the ways are not dissimilar.

    Major offered a way of creating a first look numerical picture via awarding points with perhaps the most significant being 50pts for a drop in class ,but when it came to consistency judged on the three most recent runs his scoring was 30pts for a win 10pts for a 2nd and 5pts for a 3rd.If you ponder this he is adding points for positive runs but not subtracting any for negative runs.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2017
    markfinn, nagwa and Keegans head like this.
  10. arkle55

    arkle55 Dam

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    @Nellsman

    From the only thread on this site where if a certain member does not like your post/ does not agree with your views, they get deleted.

    PACK UP FOR A WHILE IF YOU ARE NOT GETTING BETTING RIGHT

    Apparently this is VDW without any doubt.

    I would disagree, it reads to me who ever really did write the letter was having a pop at the readers and Raceform. Because of the many pops it reads more of frustration then of actually cracking it like a old fashioned safe cracker.

    Arkle
     
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  11. nagwa

    nagwa Colt

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    PACK UP FOR A WHILE IF YOU ARE NOT GETTING BETTING RIGHT
    this letter generated a lot of interest if i rememebr right, j bingham wrote with his examples, of the said methods also mg of kent sent in his examples many on the lines of j binghams selections..
     
  12. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Jock Bingham committed suicide after failing as a Private VDW Tipping Service
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2017
  13. markfinn

    markfinn Mare

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  14. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hi @mtoto.
    VDW said that the class/form horse was the one to look for. I first raised the question in regard to Mark of Esteem, There is no way that I can make MOE a form horse. Ekbalco was put to me by Boba, I presume as a similar VDW example. For me, there is no similarity whatever between MOE and Ekbalco. By this I mean that as far as I can see (that may be no further than the end of my nose), MOE failed very badly in a race that he should have performed better. Whereas Ekbalco was a blatant prep run (to use your terminology). Years ago Fulham explained to me that a horse could be forgiven a bad run if it was put into a class that it had not previously ran in (VDW's way of assessing form vis a vis Gaye Chance). And that there were circumstances where a run could be ignored (a prime example is Ekbalco). But I cannot see anyway to excuse Mark Of Esteem. In my view this gives credence to @Chesham argument that the results were back fitted. However, I could be wrong, maybe there is a way that MOE's last run is a form run (Hedgehog makes it a form run his way), and I have to acknowledge that I don't know everything the VDW way.
    I am the Nellsman that you speak of and I have to say that I am very pleased to be able to talk to you again. Talk is cheap, but I have been reading your blog and in your case, you put your money where your mouth is, we may have had our disagreements in the past but the proof of the pudding is in the eating and I have to say that your results have been nothing short of exceptional.

    thanks and regards
    Nellsman
     
  15. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hi @mtoto.
    I forgot to say, I am still trying to solve the puzzle.

    regards
    Nellsman
     
  16. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hi @mick,
    you are right of course there are many valid reasons for a horse running poorly and it can be difficult at times to determine the cause of a poor run. VDW did cover this aspect with his capability part of the equation. I don't think that he ever went into it in any depth other than to mention that a horse needs softer or better going
    or the distance being wrong or that the track did not suit. I suppose at the end of the day it comes down to common sense. Mtoto I think is very knowledgeable about course characteristics and if any given horse is likely to be suited to a certain type of course. This is not an area that I have any expertise in but it is logical to be aware that some horses go better right handed than left handed and vice versa. With jumpers this is sometimes easy to spot a horse jumping to the right or left but it's not so easy on the flat.

    regards
    Nellsman.
     
  17. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    hi Arkle55,
    you could be correct, I have no idea if VDW wrote that letter or not. I haven't looked at the selections given in that letter at any depth so could not give a view on it either way.
    I remember when Fulham told us that VDW was in fact G Hall. I felt cheated that I had wasted all of the time that I had spent on trying to unravel the VDW puzzle. It would seem on the surface that the man was a fantasist but there is a paradox, if it is true that people like Lee and others who have made claims on this forum that the methods are successful when fully understood. This does not seem to me to make any sense at all. If the methodology was as auspicious as these people claim surely VDW should have been a very wealthy man. I just don't get it at all.

    regards
    Nellsman
     
  18. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    There is no way that I can make MOE a form horse.

    @Nellsman I can only take it the above statement is based purely on the horses last run as before that he clearly had/was the form horse in the race. I can't speak for Bobba but it looks to me the only reason Ekbalco was brought into the conversation was because he also had failed in his last race. For me this was for very different reasons Ekbalco was being prepped for a return to the course where he had achieved his best performance to date and a penalty wouldn't have been a a help (in the trainers mind). Re MOE looking at his profile I can't really see any reason to seriously fore see his defeat before the race, but after I can see a possible reason for it . His best performance had been on a straight course and while he had winning form around a bend that form was some way below his best based on s/f and as pointed out by Chesham.

    To be honest I haven't seriously researched these races as I had, and still do have serious doubts about the author really being VDW . Have to admit the doubt is based more on the wording and terminology/phrasing of that particular posting. I have long lost my copies of the Handicap book, but I would love to know if Mr Peach was advertising or just about to advertise a new booklet or reissue some of the older material. Just like Mr Halls article was it only there to drum up interest that was starting to flag a little. There can be no doubt Mr Peach didn't hesitate to drum up publicity and muddy the waters by getting folk who didn't really have a clue about what was being shown.!! If only he knew he didn't have to waste his time, there are still more than a few who are still at it, muddying the waters that is :acute:

    Be Lucky
     
  19. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 2:45 1 Mister Manduro 2 Mark Hopkins 3 Uae King
    Ascot 3:20 1 Golden Stunner 2 Mittens 3 Pirouette
    Ascot 3:55 1 Noble Gift 2 Sennockian Star 3 Appeared

    Probables
    Ascot 2:45 1 Uae King 2 Desert God 3 Mark Hopkins
    Ascot 3:20 1 Mittens 2 Tisbutadream 3 Whispering Bell
    Ascot 3:55 1 Appeared 2 Sennockian Star 3 Noble Gift

    2:45 Nothing for me as the prices on two are too tight and match the ratings the other horse has it all to do although he does have a entry on the d/base. That entry was gained on a stiff right handed course so he can't be ignored, but class wise has plenty to find based on his most recent performances. No bet.
    3:20 again the prices on the top two are to tight for me. Only Pirouette is a price that would interest me but she does seem to prefer good going on a stiff course. She does have the stiff course today but the going isn't likely to be firm enough. It also reads she had a hard race 17 days ago on unsuitable going, how much did that take out of her? No bet.
    3:55 Noble Gift catches my eye as he also has an entry at Goodwood on Tuesday and goes in this. He scored his best figures at Goodwood so this is interesting. The going looks to have come right for him. His biggest danger on the figures is our old friend Sennockian Star who does look to be finding some of his old form, while he does like Ascot and softer going I still have trouble trusting him. Noble Gift small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  20. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    William Knight is 0/39 in Handicaps Higher than Class 4

    Screen Shot 2017-07-28 at 12.55.21.png

    Screen Shot 2017-07-28 at 12.57.01.png
     
  21. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 2:05 1 Get Knotted 2 Salateen 3 Starlight Romance
    Asc 2:25 1 D'bai 2 Alwahsh 3 Century Dream
    Asc 3:00 1 Fawaareq 2 Jack Dexter 3 Remarkable
    Asc 3:35 1 Highland Reel 2 My Dream Boat 3 Ulysses

    Probables
    York 2:05 1 Starlight Romance 2 Battered 3 Salateen
    Asc 2:25 1 Century Dream 2 Alwahsh 3 Pealer
    Asc 3:00 1 Viscount Barfield 2 Above The Rest 3 Jack Dexter
    Asc 3:35 1 Enable 2 Highland Reel 3 Ulysses


    2:05 Get Knotted won this last season and it looks as if he has been prepped for this again looking at his last two runs. He is the class horse and only fails on consistency but I make the vast majority of his recent runs as form runs, He should be able to handle the ground and that can't be said with any certainty about his biggest danger based on the bare figures. Salateen is also a course winner with proven form but seems to need firm going to be at his best. Did seriously think about making Get Knotted a bet but would want a better price as Starlight Romance could well be a fly in the ointment. Strongest probable with good(ish) course form and can handle the softer going but like Get Knotted does get a negative re the cross check.
    2:25 Only the top two in the rankings have entries on the d/base and using those figures D'bai is well clear. However there is a question mark against both re the going and I'm leaving the race alone.


    3:00 I'm going to take a complete flyer with Top Score in this. I could easily be reading this all wrong but I see a horse that last time it ran in a hcp it was on the wrong course and he still didn't perform that badly. The distance and going should not be too much of a problem, but I would have liked to see a little more early pace around him as I think he really does need a good pace on a stiff course. I do hope the young jockey is up to giving him a strong ride as I think that is another thing needed. I know nothing/very little about this apprentice but looking at the stables that have used him he must have something going for him.Top Score small win loaded place to half stakes.
    3:35 As it is a day for taking a chance I'm going to side with My Dream Boat here. There seems to be a persistent doubt about the going for Highland Reel on the going, and actually there seems to be the same sort of worries about Ulysses with the distance on the going in this class . I think it was last week I watched a program talking about the weakest group winners and My Dream Boat was top of the list. I looked him up on the d/base and found he was far from the weakest using my figures and as the going was in his coming in his favour, I had a little ante post on him. I was hoping one or both of the horse with going doubts would be pulled out but they are still there. As is the favourite who has possibly the same questions to answer re going.

    William Knight is 0/39 in Handicaps Higher than Class 4

    @Chesham Thanks I had noticed the above and have to say it was one if not a major reason I backed Noble Gift. The trainer must have had a good idea about his record on the course and still went for it. I assumed he would be passing on the Goodwood run but I see the horse is still entered. Noble Gift has a fair record at Goodwood. and Ascot apart from being right handed is very different. Until his last run Noble Gift didn't have a very good record of handling stiff course but he handled Newmarket fairly well and I did wonder if his profile was starting to change. After watching the race I'm not sure what to make of it as I didn't ever feel he was given a chance of winning the race.

    Be Lucky
     
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  22. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Hi @mtoto

    I think the Run style of leading makes NG Vunerable in 3 Y-O Plus Handicaps (WFA) in races with plenty of runners, as he just sets it up for those who like to close off the pace.

    He will be better in 4 Y-O Plus handicaps and in races where he can use his class to dominate, especially when there are few runners
     
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  23. nagwa

    nagwa Colt

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    good winner mtoto
     
  24. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hi @mtoto,
    10 points in front over 4 races is very good fishing. I didn't se Dbai's race, but Get Knotted had the race sewn up a furlong out and won
    like a 3/1 on shot. Your ratings are excellent and it's very good of you to post them on this forum. Well done.

    regards
    Nellsman
     
  25. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Good 1:50 1 What About Carlo 2 Uae Prince 3 Baydar
    Good 3:00 1 Librisa Breeze 2 Spirit of Valor 3 Limato
    Good 3:35 1 Big Orange 2 Wicklow Brave 3 Sheikhzayedroad

    Probables
    Good 1:50 1 What About Carlo 2 Uae Prince 3 Abdon
    Good 3:00 1 Home Of The Brave 2 Spirit of Valor 3 Jungle Cat
    Good 3:35 1 Big Orange 2 Stradivarius 3 Higher Power



    1:50 Six runners with proven form in a higher class than today's and final figures are quite tight. What About Carlo is second best class wise and is in top form. Course, and distance should be no problem. His very best has been on flat "speed" courses but he does hold a very good performance on an undulating course. Uae Prince also is improving but I think the last run was the real target, and he had a hard race. I like to see around a six week gap when the race comments say driven in a top class race, There also has to be some doubt re the course. Baydar, I notice a couple of comments saying as he was edging down the weights his chances are improving. I look at his profile and see a horse that is running on his preferred going for the first time since his last win. That for me is a bigger boast to his chances of winning. On my figures he is just the class horse but those same figures suggest he prefers a stiff course although he does have a win on a flatter course Like Carlo the going may not be soft enough for him so as I make Carlo the more likely to show a profit so What About Carlo i small win loaded place.
    3:00 All to tight for me, prices wise and on the figures. I have five horse all very tight on the figures.
    3:35 When I started looking at this race I had Big Orange as one to possibly take on as most of his best run have been on stiff courses. The trouble is the same comments apply to most of the other runners with only the consistent Qewy actually going into the race with figures scored at Good wood. After some thought I'm leaving the race alone.

    @Nellsman Somewhere you mentioned about taking race/track conditions into account as VDW suggested . His actual wording was .................
    "Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated along with the
    other aspects such as distance, .going, track, etc. Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is almost bound to come unstuck on a sharp
    track. The permutations involved in the assessment of one horse against others in a race provides an extremely complex problem but we can make life much easier if the situation is followed logically".
    To me if that thinking is followed logically it says/suggests these race conditions can't just be fitted into a set of rating as there are far too many aspects to take into account. Fair enough a horse hasn't won over a distance or on the going does it deserve the same score as a horse that has tried and failed if it has never tried before? A horse wins a race at as Ascot and then is listed as a course and distance winner but do you really expect that horse to perform to the same standard if it has been raised in class. One thing I sometimes have trouble with is can a horse handle a bend when the bend is quite near the finishing line and not a long run in. For me rating are just to narrow the field and then the brain work comes in and sometime you get it right and others you don't. At times even the trainers are on a wing and a prayer so what chance do we mere portals stand :pray:

    Be Lucky
     
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  26. Nellsman

    Nellsman Foal

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    Hi @mtoto,
    thanks for the pointers, much appreciated. I do have faith in my ratings, but you're right, they are just a way of narrowing the field. I'll work on it, it will take time but hopefully I'll get there before it's too late.

    thanks and regards
    Nellsman
     
  27. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Good 1:50 1 Suegioo 2 Akavit 3 Hawkerland
    Good 2:25 1 Wolf Country 2 Sofia's Rock 3 First Nation
    Good 3:35 1 Ribchester 2 Lancaster Bomber 3 Churchill
    Good 4:45 1 Skiffle 2 Sagely 3 Three Duchesses

    Probables
    Good 1:50 1 Akavit 2 Hawkerland 3 Denmead
    Good 2:25 1 Fair Power 2 Winston C 3 Brimham Rocks
    Good 3:35 1 Ribchester 2 Zelzal 3 Lancaster Bomber
    Good 4:45 1 Three Duchesses 2 Indulged 3 White Chocolate


    1:50 Much as I like/prefer the long distance races I'm giving this a miss. Suegioo is the clear class horse but he is starting to become a cliff horse. The figures used for this today are starting to get a little old but even on his most recent entry on the d/base he is still the clear class horse. As this is a big class drop from his only other venture at Goodwood I can't really work out if the course will suit, while I do know York will/does and he has an entry in the Ebor coming up. Although I think that is well out of his reach.
    2:25 reading the profile Wolf Country reads like a prep and this is more likely to suit. Again I have him as the clear class horse and the only runner with proven form in the same or higher class. Has to be a slight question mark re the going but don't think he would be risked if there was any serious doubts. Mr Johnston would dearly love to win this as he as entered more than enough runners, Sofia's Rock comes out best of his on the bare figures but looks to prefer the stiffer courses. Wolf Country small win loaded place.
    3:35 Nothing here for me. Only Lancaster Bomber is of a price worth looking at but I can't really see him making a profit today
    4:45 Both of the top two scored their figures at Goodwood with Skiffle being the strongest class wise, just . While she didn't run too badly last time out it still didn't really prove she was completely over her injury. Sagely has no queries re fitness and was second in this last season so it has to have been a possible target. Three of the last five runs have been on stiff course whereas her best form has been on "speed" courses. The third ranked the Three Duchesses is only there because of her probables rating and has to make serious improvement to be of any real interest. Sagely small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
  28. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Good 3:00 1 Zhui Feng 2 Blair House 3 Mustashry
    Good 4:40 1 Al Jazi 2 Eternally 3 Perfect Angel.

    Probables
    Good 3:00 1 Zhui Feng 2 Blair House 3 Mustashry
    Good 4:40 1 Sainted 2 Eternally 3 Tundra


    After the first two days when I couldn't even get close to a winner my first reaction was to give it a miss. I had problems with the machine yesterday and that is why there wasn't any thoughts on the racing. :eek:

    3:00 On working this race I'm not completely happy any of the top three will/can handle the going well enough to reproduce their figures. One horse I have been waiting for to race on soft or softer going runs in this is First Selection, have to admit it did give the bookie who places/takes my ante post bets a bit of a laugh/smile. However I make him a very close up second best class wise to the joint top rated. His soft ground form is very good based on the figures although as they are based on Haydock form I do worry/ wonder if they are a little flattering. Even allowing for the flattery there is no doubt the going won't be a problem. Leaving the ante post bet as is and increasing the place aspect with a place only bet .
    4:40 as Perfect Angel is the only one with an interesting price, but to be honest I would want a bigger place price I'm leaving this alone. Think she will handle the going but the 7f has to be a worry/doubt.
     
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  29. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 2:05 1 Ebbesbourne 2 Pleasant Surprise 3 Isabel De Urbina
    Good 2:25 1 Getback In Paris 2 Soldier In Action 3 Mainstream
    Don 4:30 1 Berkshire 2 Al Destoor 3 Erik The Red

    Newm 2:05 1 Pleasant Surprise 2 Hestina 3 Erinyes
    Good 2:25 1 Saigon City 2 Getback In Paris 3 Mainstream
    Don 4:30 1 Another Eclipse 2 Al Destoor 3 Zwayyan

    2:05 All very tight price wise. Ebbesbourne is the class horse and also comes out best on recent form, so is one of the three runners who have proven form in higher class than today's. Isabel De Urbina is a little way behind her on the class figures but does have form on the soft. Pleasant Surprise holds the second best ranking based purely on her probable figures, and I think Apphia is more likely to be a danger than Pleasant Surprise. None of the three most likely have any real value in their place prices so no bet. If pushed I would have to settle for Isabel De Urbina.
    2:25 Only Soldier In Action in the top three has an entry on the d/base, the other two are there based on their probable figures. while the course should not be a problem for Soldier In Action the going well could be. Again I'm having to rely of Haydock figures and I have serious doubts about their validity at times. The other two in the top three Getback In Paris and Mainstream after more than a few runs and wins have still to register on the d/base and in the past that hasn't been a positive. Although Getback In Paris does have course winning form on softer going and if it had been in a higher class I would have considered him a little more seriously. I'm siding with Carntop who fails on consistency and forecast position, but is joint top on class. All his best form has been on undulating courses and on softer going. Carntop small win loaded place.
    4:30 Berkshire the clear class horse but undoubtedly on the decline. The question has to be has he enough in the locker to win this. He may well have but there isn't enough in the place price for me to try to risk it. No Bet.

    Be Lucky
     
  30. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:30 1 Autocratic 2 Gabrial 3 Laraaib
    Hay 3:35 1 Sea Of Grace 2 Lincoln Rocks 3 Queen of Time
    Newm 4:15 1 War Glory 2 Von Blucher 3 Khamaary

    Probables
    Hay 2:30 1 Laraaib 2 Francis Of Assisi 3 Autocratic
    Hay 3:35 1 Simply Me 2 Lincoln Rocks 3 Queen of Time
    Newm 4:15 1 Khamaary 2 Gulliver 3 That Is The Spirit


    The novelty meeting at Ascot like every year has been ignored as a betting proposition. o_O

    2:30 Only Gabrial is of an interesting price in the top rankings. But I think he will have his work cut out to show a profit against this field on this going and distance. I had earmarked Arthenus to look out for on a stiff course on soft going and while I quite like him for this my confidence about horses whose best performances are recorded on softer going are used. Twice at Goodwood I took those figures and ignored class figures scored on better going in the belief the soft going horses would prevail. Twice the class horse who didn't have the good figures on soft won. Have to ask myself why after all this time I didn't stick to the theory ask the bus driver, and why did he run the horse on going that looked unsuitable he could always have pulled it out if he was worried it would/could harm the horses.
    3:35 & 4:15 are passed over as apart from not liking anything the prices are to tight to bother delving into.

    Be Lucky
     
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