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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 5:00 1 Big Baz 2 Emell 3 Captain Cat

    Probables
    Ascot 5:00 1 Eagle Creek 2 Sacred Act 3 Leader Writer

    5:00 Big Baz is the joint class horse and holds the advantage by recording his best figures on a stiff course, whereas Emell's have all been on speed courses. Captain Cat early on had figures that hold up on stiff courses but the profile looks to have changed . Big Baz's profile suggests he needs a straight course on soft going to produce his best, the question has to be can he do that NOW? At a slightly bigger place price I would be interested, say 3/1 the place.

    Be Lucky
     
    pinemarten likes this.
  2. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 2:45 1 Firmament 2 Raising Sand 3 Top Score
    Ascot 3:20 1 Black Bess 2 Peach Melba 3 Stellar Surprise
    Hay 3:35 1 Sovereign Debt 2 Kaspersky 3 Mitchum Swagger
    Ascot 3:55 1 Londinium 2 First Nation 3 Anythingtoday
    Hay 4:10 1 Sepal 2 My Reward 3 Great Fighter
    Hay 4:45 1 Hochfeld 2 Winston C 3 Joshua Reynolds

    Probables
    Ascot 2:45 1 Masham Star 2 Raising Sand 3 Lualiwa
    Ascot 3:20 1 Stellar Surprise 2 Peach Melba 3 Seduce Me
    Hay 3:35 1 Ballet Concerto 2 Mitchum Swagger 3 Flaming Spear
    Ascot 3:55 1 Mam'selle 2 Torcello 3 Seafarer
    Hay 4:10 1 Sepal 2 My Reward 3 Compton Mill
    Hay 4:45 1 Joshua Reynolds 2 Great Sound 3 Mistress Quickly

    2:45 Top Score is the class horse here, but I have just about given up backing 3 year olds that score their figures in classics but just can't follow up on it!! If this was on the straight course I just may have been interested, but the only thing I can see that could change his profile is the fact he has now been gelded. I also know the jockey gets rave reviews but for me she is a little weak in the saddle and that can't be said of the jockey when he scored his best figures.
    Firmament Was second in this last season but that was on firmer going and that along with a "speed" course does seem to be needed to produce his best.
    Raising Sand On his favoured course and going but after a good deal of thought I have decided to leave this race alone, and the main reason is Top Score as class wise He is well clear and losing his bits MAY just sort his problems out (It would for me)
    3:20 Nothing here for me.
    3:35 Only Kaspersky interests me price wise and the going has to be a doubt but if they are worried why run him? He does have winning form on the soft abroad but do their going descriptions marry up with ours ?
    3:55 Londinium & First Nation have very little between them on the final figures. The question has to be why is First Nation running if he can't handle the going? As First Nation scored his best figures last time out on soft going it suggests the trainer isn't that worried.
    Londinium the question has to be is/was it the quick turn around and the better going in his last two races that leave doubts about their worth? I'm backing both to win to half stakes a quarter on each.
    4:10 Nothing here for me.
    4:45 Winston C is the class horse and as far as I can see well thought of with an entry in the Cesarewitch. That could well be flying a little high but it shows someone thinks a lot of the horse. I backed him last time out and in all fairness he didn't run that badly and the going just may have been against him not the case today. The same can't really be said for Hochfeld as the going did catch him out and his only win on softer going was in a much lower class than today's. Bigger danger could well be Joshua Reynolds as he does have winning form on the soft. However neither of his last two wins got him on the d/base, so has something to prove class wise for me. Winston C much larger win than usual with a smaller place but still the one unit staked.

    Be Lucky
     
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  3. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 3:00 1 Alyssa 2 Detailed 3 Natural Scenery.

    Probables
    Don 3:00 1 Detailed 2 Aljezeera 3 Natural Scenery.

    3:00 Alyssa is the only runner with proven form in a higher class than this and there is only one other runner who registers on the d/base. The trainer has left me with a bit of a problem as in the past he has pulled this horse out because of the soft going. On top of that he had a much fancied horse who ran in the said race on soft going and today has pulled that horse out because of the going!! Now I'm trying to work out was Alyssa pulled out to save her for this race and not because of the going as other wise I can't really make sense of it. On first look it does look as if Alyssa has a right hand bias but last years winner also trained by this trainer also ran at Ascot, both his horses seem to be following a tried and tested route into the race so I'm reasonably happy he was/is out to win this. Detailed can handle the going, but is another who seems to favour right handed tracks and has plenty to find class wise. His ranking is based purely on his probable figures (strongest probable). Natural Scenery does have a good performance in higher/better than this class, but it wasn't good enough to register on the d/base, + there has to be a query re the going & surface. If they were to change the jockey to Oisin Murphy now his horse doesn't run I would seriously consider backing Alyssa but otherwise I'm giving it a miss.

    Be Lucky
     
  4. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 3:00 1 Alyssa 2 Detailed 3 Melodic Motion

    Probables
    Don 3:00 1 Detailed 2 Melodic Motion 3 Aljezeera

    I have to apologise, not sure what happened, but for some reason I thought there were two non runners so the first post didn't make much sense. :confused:

    3:00 Alyssa is the only runner with proven form in a higher class than this and there is only one other runner who registers on the d/base. Now I'm trying to work out was Alyssa pulled out to save her for this race and not because of the going as other wise I can't really make sense of it. On first look it does look as if Alyssa has a right hand bias but last years winner also trained by this trainer also ran at Ascot before coming on here. Both his horses seem to be following a tried and tested route into the race so I'm reasonably happy he was/is out to win this. Detailed can handle the going, but is another who seems to favour right handed tracks and has plenty to find class wise. His ranking is based purely on his probable figures (strongest probable). Melodic Motion's last run was in a higher/better class than this but did warrant an entry on the d/base. So once again it is the probable figure that come into play with him .

    Obviously the jockey change doesn't come into play so I'm going to give this a miss but I do expect Alyssa to run well, but would prefer a jockey with a better record on the course.

    Be Lucky
     
  5. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well Done with Alyssa @mtoto
     
  6. formtheory

    formtheory Mare

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    Well done Mtoto!!!!
     
  7. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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  8. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Well done @mtoto with alyssa, cracking result. Well done again
     
  9. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 1:50 1 Talaayeb 2 Pirouette 3 Eternally
    Don 3:35 1 Sheikhzayedroad 2 Desert Skyline 3 Pallasator

    Probables
    Don 1:50 1 Pirouette 2 Whatsthemessage 3 Unforgetable Filly
    Don 3:35 1 Montaly 2 Fun Mac 3 Desert Skyline

    Nothing for me today.

    1:50 Of these top three only Pirouette is a price I would look at and even then it is quite short. Her profile suggests stiff tracks are slightly better for her but she does have a win on this track albeit in much lower class. Going and distance should be fine and one thing I do find a little strange is because her last win was in Germany and hence no s/f, even though it just may have been a best ever performance it is ignored by some!! Talaayeb has to be a big danger as she is the class horse and the only runner with proven form in a higher class. A couple of possible negatives are while she does run well when fresh, has she had long enough to recover after York? and her best has been on stiff straight courses on better going than is on offer today. Eternally, class wise has something to find with the top two, and price governed by trainer and jockey not her bare form. While my figures say she is a good hcper that doesn't mean she can't improve but I'm not happy to pay to find out.

    3:35 Again the prices apart from Pallasator's are very/too tight. Pallasator is not a horse that appeals to me as one never knows which Pallasator is going to turn up. At his best he is more than capable of holding is own but not even the trainer can be sure if it is going to be a going day!!Sheikhzayedroad, looking at his profile I think he was being targeted for the York race, and at his age can he recover from a hard race, and give his best today? While age is a possible negative for Sheikhzayedroad again for me age could well be the negative for Desert Skyline is 3 to young to be contesting a race of this class against proven/established stayers on soft going?

    Obviously the jockey change doesn't come into play so I'm going to give this a miss but I do expect Alyssa to run well, but would prefer a jockey with a better record on the course.

    I know I said that but after sitting watching the price drift like a barge one just had to back ones own thinking. Why just assume everyone knows more than you!! It went out to nearly 40/1 and that was pure crazy, it had to be worth a few bob to win and a little more to place :eek:

    Be Lucky
     
    pinemarten and Chesham like this.
  10. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 2:25 1 Breton Rock 2 Home Of The Brave 3 Spirit of Valor
    Don 3:35 1 Coronet 2 Stradivarius 3 Defoe
    Don 4:45 1 Muntazah 2 You're Fired 3 Battered

    Don 2:25 1 Home Of The Brave 2 Nathra 3 Viscount Barfield
    Don 3:35 1 Defoe 2 Stradivarius 3 Crystal Ocean
    Don 4:45 1 Kryptos 2 Battered 3 Sinfonietta

    2:25 All the figures are very tight, and that includes the prices being offered, however Breton Rock is the only runner with proven form in this class. Read somewhere that Breton Rock doesn't win when he carries a penalty, and that is something I can't/don't quite understand as Breton Rock he hasn't run in a hcp for a long time. I think the defeats are more down to races/conditions not being in his favour. Today he has the ground, and on a quick look the competition to ensure a good early pace. He has a better than fair record on this track, and seems to prefer running around a bend. Can't argue that the figures show he has lost a little on the speed figures, but still up to scratch class wise. Home Of The Brave is the real pace angle as he has the class to run to his s/f. In saying that his profile does suggest he is slightly under this class. Spirit of Valor, another who may just lack the class to step up for this. the going and course also raise doubts for me. I would want a better price before I could back Breton Rock.
    3:35 I was hopeful of finding a bet in this as I have the favourite well down the rankings. However on checking out the prices being offered I find they are all to tight on the top ranked horses. I make Coronet the class horse, but for some reason I find myself doubting the York form that gives her that figure. One reason for that is her profile suggests she is better on stiff courses on better going. Stradivarius form is based on just the one run and it is another run that may just prove more than a little faltering. Defoe I make him the joint weakest class wise of all the runners and his profile doesn't suggest to me he was/is considered a true Leger. Just a good/fair horse who may as well take his chance. Jockey is a major plus but that in its self isn't enough. This brings me to my Ante Post bet Raheen House, a bet that was struck some time ago. A little disappointed he didn't do better in the ranking but he does look as if he has been targeted at this unlike a few of the better fancied horses. I will leave the win part of the bet as is but top up the place aspect. Apart from that nothing else in this race.
    4:45 When I went to bed last night You're Fired was going to be my bet in this but after a nights sleep I have decided this may well just be a prep for the Cambridgeshire in a couple of weeks. That looks a sensible target as this horse likes straight stiff courses and the going should suit. Trainer in very good form and I'm more than pleased to see him come back after the way he was treated. For me his only crime was not training horses for the Queen then he would have been home free!! The other two in the final ranking are far to tight to interest me.

    Be Lucky
     
  11. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Sand 3:05 1 Richard Pankhurst 2 D'bai 3 Naval Warfare
    Yar 3:50 1 Titi Makfi 2 Vintage Folly 3 Beautiful Morning

    Probables
    Sand 3:05 1 Naval Warfare 2 D'bai 3 Laidback Romeo
    Yar 3:50 1 Titi Makfi 2 Vintage Folly 3 Indulged


    Nothing betting wise for me here. Although I have near enough decided to leave some of these smaller races alone, I have been asked to carry on showing the figures as some don't like to just stick to the better races. For some reason I have also been asked to carry on giving my thoughts on said races, although I'm not sure why as I think it is much better for others to work out which horses they want to back and my thoughts shouldn't really come into it!!

    3:05 only two horse have proven form in higher class but both are very in and out form wise at the moment. Of the top three I would favour D'bai, one racing pundit seemed to think his last run wasn't that good I can't understand why. The going was very soft and there is a sharpish bend in the race and it is very possible the pace of the race was against him as it was in France. D'bai ran his best race so far on a stiff course (although it is a straight course) and Sandown should suit him better than France. Naval Warfare won last time out when dropped in class and goes back up again. For me the only thing in his favour is his trainer and I find it hard to believe the trainer would run him here if he didn't think the horse had improved. But improve he has to as he still hasn't an entry on the d/base and his best wins have been in small fields although the course and going should suit.



    Be Lucky
     
  12. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 4:00 1 Golden Stunner 2 Tupi 3 Princess De Lune

    Probables
    Newb 4:00 1 Princess De Lune 2 Dream Of Dreams 3 Accidental Agent


    4:00 Golden Stunner could find her form now she is back on better than good going, and on a straight course. But being a female who seemed to lose her form around this time of the year last season there could be other reason for the lose of form. She looks to be drawn with horse that have some early pace and that are good enough to lead her well into the race. Tupi is a hard horse to pin down, first glance says he is a 6f horse but his best figures are over a stiff 8f on firm going. He is the class horse by some distance but can he run to those figures on this course? Princess De Lune the first thing I did when I saw this name was to look to see if she had any interesting races coming up a prep for something bigger. However she hasn't and as this very good trainer usually has something in mind I have to wonder if this is the target. She has shown she can handle this straight course and, she has been pulled out because of the going in the past so the absence hasn't been down to injury, well all of it. Looks like he was waiting for the ground. I have her as the strongest probable but with that being based on just the one run the ranking could be flattering. Golden Stunner small win loaded place.

    Nothing was put up yesterday because the 3:00 at Yarmouth was advertised as a class 2 but in truth fell well short of it when the competition was looked at. So a race that fell well short of the class I'm looking for. The 4:10 was a very different kettle of fish and the only reason I didn't put it up was I truly expected the top rated to be far to short to be a bet. Really should have known better as a lot of top weights are given the elbow because they are the top weight, and then to cap it all the horse drifts another negative for many. Again I ask why do so many think the general public, and/or bookies know more the you? A horse doesn't need to be a short price to have a realistic chance of winning, it just needs to have the form that doesn't jump out at everyone.

    Be Lucky
     
  13. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 2:15 1 Second Step 2 Desert Encounter 3 My Dream Boat
    Newm3:10 1 Arthur Mc Bride 2 Taws 3 Time To Study
    Newb 3:25 1 Euginio 2 Teodoro 3 Brorocco
    Cat 4:45 1 Mukhayyam 2 Je Suis Charlie 3 Wotabreeze

    Probables
    Newb 2:15 1 Second Step 2 Dylan Mouth 3 Fabricate
    Newm3:10 1 Taws 2 Arthur McBride 3 Time To Study
    Newb 3:25 1 Teodoro 2 Euginio 3 Azari
    Cat 4:45 1 Je Suis Charlie 2 Wotabreeze 3 Mr Sundowner

    2:15 Of these three My Dream Boat is the sort of price that would interest me. He is the class horse and this is a slight drop in class. However he isn't that consistent but is that down to running in class slightly above his true grade? Another negative is his best form has been on stiff courses and Newbury doesn't fit that description for me. Second Step is consistent and this helps his final figures and the course is the one that he scored his best figures on so no problems there. He just has to find some improvement to confirm his ranking. Desert Encounter there has to be some doubt re the course, going, and distance. He does look to have a right hand bias and even with five good looking/reasonable wins to his name only one entry on the d/base. One horse that grabbed my attention if the going gets really soft is What About Carlo four entries on the d/base and ALL of them achieved on this course Unless it pours down for What About Carlo I'm giving the race a miss.
    3:10 Much as I like and look for these long distance hcp I can't get interested in this one. Arthur McBride is the top rated of the consistent horses but my cross check doesn't like him one bit well out of it on that.
    3:25 Euginio I make him the class horse but have to admit I'm more than a little confused as I expected with the stable and jockey for this horse to be much shorter. Two negatives for me are the quick return to the track, and the "driven" in the last race comments. Teodoro much as I like the jockey I can't really see this horse being good enough based on what it has done to date, no entry on the d/base so plenty to find. Brorocco again a trainer I look for in this type of race, but much is being made of how unlucky he was last time out. I'm happy to accept horses are unlucky at times but when it is hyped the value has gone. Eddystone Rock is the horse some think was helped by Brorocco's bad luck but for me Brorocco has plenty to find re the cross check and I make Eddystone Rock the better horse and his final ranking is hampered by taking the form figures at face value. I'm backing Euginio and Eddystone Rock small win loaded place to half stakes on both.
    4:45 this is one of the races I'm cutting out. No bet.

    Be Lucky
     
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