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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Discussion in 'Mtoto' started by mtoto, Sep 13, 2013.

  1. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 5:00 1 Big Baz 2 Emell 3 Captain Cat

    Probables
    Ascot 5:00 1 Eagle Creek 2 Sacred Act 3 Leader Writer

    5:00 Big Baz is the joint class horse and holds the advantage by recording his best figures on a stiff course, whereas Emell's have all been on speed courses. Captain Cat early on had figures that hold up on stiff courses but the profile looks to have changed . Big Baz's profile suggests he needs a straight course on soft going to produce his best, the question has to be can he do that NOW? At a slightly bigger place price I would be interested, say 3/1 the place.

    Be Lucky
     
    pinemarten likes this.
  2. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 2:45 1 Firmament 2 Raising Sand 3 Top Score
    Ascot 3:20 1 Black Bess 2 Peach Melba 3 Stellar Surprise
    Hay 3:35 1 Sovereign Debt 2 Kaspersky 3 Mitchum Swagger
    Ascot 3:55 1 Londinium 2 First Nation 3 Anythingtoday
    Hay 4:10 1 Sepal 2 My Reward 3 Great Fighter
    Hay 4:45 1 Hochfeld 2 Winston C 3 Joshua Reynolds

    Probables
    Ascot 2:45 1 Masham Star 2 Raising Sand 3 Lualiwa
    Ascot 3:20 1 Stellar Surprise 2 Peach Melba 3 Seduce Me
    Hay 3:35 1 Ballet Concerto 2 Mitchum Swagger 3 Flaming Spear
    Ascot 3:55 1 Mam'selle 2 Torcello 3 Seafarer
    Hay 4:10 1 Sepal 2 My Reward 3 Compton Mill
    Hay 4:45 1 Joshua Reynolds 2 Great Sound 3 Mistress Quickly

    2:45 Top Score is the class horse here, but I have just about given up backing 3 year olds that score their figures in classics but just can't follow up on it!! If this was on the straight course I just may have been interested, but the only thing I can see that could change his profile is the fact he has now been gelded. I also know the jockey gets rave reviews but for me she is a little weak in the saddle and that can't be said of the jockey when he scored his best figures.
    Firmament Was second in this last season but that was on firmer going and that along with a "speed" course does seem to be needed to produce his best.
    Raising Sand On his favoured course and going but after a good deal of thought I have decided to leave this race alone, and the main reason is Top Score as class wise He is well clear and losing his bits MAY just sort his problems out (It would for me)
    3:20 Nothing here for me.
    3:35 Only Kaspersky interests me price wise and the going has to be a doubt but if they are worried why run him? He does have winning form on the soft abroad but do their going descriptions marry up with ours ?
    3:55 Londinium & First Nation have very little between them on the final figures. The question has to be why is First Nation running if he can't handle the going? As First Nation scored his best figures last time out on soft going it suggests the trainer isn't that worried.
    Londinium the question has to be is/was it the quick turn around and the better going in his last two races that leave doubts about their worth? I'm backing both to win to half stakes a quarter on each.
    4:10 Nothing here for me.
    4:45 Winston C is the class horse and as far as I can see well thought of with an entry in the Cesarewitch. That could well be flying a little high but it shows someone thinks a lot of the horse. I backed him last time out and in all fairness he didn't run that badly and the going just may have been against him not the case today. The same can't really be said for Hochfeld as the going did catch him out and his only win on softer going was in a much lower class than today's. Bigger danger could well be Joshua Reynolds as he does have winning form on the soft. However neither of his last two wins got him on the d/base, so has something to prove class wise for me. Winston C much larger win than usual with a smaller place but still the one unit staked.

    Be Lucky
     
    tomwilson1986 likes this.
  3. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 3:00 1 Alyssa 2 Detailed 3 Natural Scenery.

    Probables
    Don 3:00 1 Detailed 2 Aljezeera 3 Natural Scenery.

    3:00 Alyssa is the only runner with proven form in a higher class than this and there is only one other runner who registers on the d/base. The trainer has left me with a bit of a problem as in the past he has pulled this horse out because of the soft going. On top of that he had a much fancied horse who ran in the said race on soft going and today has pulled that horse out because of the going!! Now I'm trying to work out was Alyssa pulled out to save her for this race and not because of the going as other wise I can't really make sense of it. On first look it does look as if Alyssa has a right hand bias but last years winner also trained by this trainer also ran at Ascot, both his horses seem to be following a tried and tested route into the race so I'm reasonably happy he was/is out to win this. Detailed can handle the going, but is another who seems to favour right handed tracks and has plenty to find class wise. His ranking is based purely on his probable figures (strongest probable). Natural Scenery does have a good performance in higher/better than this class, but it wasn't good enough to register on the d/base, + there has to be a query re the going & surface. If they were to change the jockey to Oisin Murphy now his horse doesn't run I would seriously consider backing Alyssa but otherwise I'm giving it a miss.

    Be Lucky
     
  4. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 3:00 1 Alyssa 2 Detailed 3 Melodic Motion

    Probables
    Don 3:00 1 Detailed 2 Melodic Motion 3 Aljezeera

    I have to apologise, not sure what happened, but for some reason I thought there were two non runners so the first post didn't make much sense. :confused:

    3:00 Alyssa is the only runner with proven form in a higher class than this and there is only one other runner who registers on the d/base. Now I'm trying to work out was Alyssa pulled out to save her for this race and not because of the going as other wise I can't really make sense of it. On first look it does look as if Alyssa has a right hand bias but last years winner also trained by this trainer also ran at Ascot before coming on here. Both his horses seem to be following a tried and tested route into the race so I'm reasonably happy he was/is out to win this. Detailed can handle the going, but is another who seems to favour right handed tracks and has plenty to find class wise. His ranking is based purely on his probable figures (strongest probable). Melodic Motion's last run was in a higher/better class than this but did warrant an entry on the d/base. So once again it is the probable figure that come into play with him .

    Obviously the jockey change doesn't come into play so I'm going to give this a miss but I do expect Alyssa to run well, but would prefer a jockey with a better record on the course.

    Be Lucky
     
  5. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well Done with Alyssa @mtoto
     
  6. formtheory

    formtheory Mare

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    Well done Mtoto!!!!
     
  7. pinemarten

    pinemarten Mare

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  8. hedgehog

    hedgehog Mare

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    Well done @mtoto with alyssa, cracking result. Well done again
     
  9. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 1:50 1 Talaayeb 2 Pirouette 3 Eternally
    Don 3:35 1 Sheikhzayedroad 2 Desert Skyline 3 Pallasator

    Probables
    Don 1:50 1 Pirouette 2 Whatsthemessage 3 Unforgetable Filly
    Don 3:35 1 Montaly 2 Fun Mac 3 Desert Skyline

    Nothing for me today.

    1:50 Of these top three only Pirouette is a price I would look at and even then it is quite short. Her profile suggests stiff tracks are slightly better for her but she does have a win on this track albeit in much lower class. Going and distance should be fine and one thing I do find a little strange is because her last win was in Germany and hence no s/f, even though it just may have been a best ever performance it is ignored by some!! Talaayeb has to be a big danger as she is the class horse and the only runner with proven form in a higher class. A couple of possible negatives are while she does run well when fresh, has she had long enough to recover after York? and her best has been on stiff straight courses on better going than is on offer today. Eternally, class wise has something to find with the top two, and price governed by trainer and jockey not her bare form. While my figures say she is a good hcper that doesn't mean she can't improve but I'm not happy to pay to find out.

    3:35 Again the prices apart from Pallasator's are very/too tight. Pallasator is not a horse that appeals to me as one never knows which Pallasator is going to turn up. At his best he is more than capable of holding is own but not even the trainer can be sure if it is going to be a going day!!Sheikhzayedroad, looking at his profile I think he was being targeted for the York race, and at his age can he recover from a hard race, and give his best today? While age is a possible negative for Sheikhzayedroad again for me age could well be the negative for Desert Skyline is 3 to young to be contesting a race of this class against proven/established stayers on soft going?

    Obviously the jockey change doesn't come into play so I'm going to give this a miss but I do expect Alyssa to run well, but would prefer a jockey with a better record on the course.

    I know I said that but after sitting watching the price drift like a barge one just had to back ones own thinking. Why just assume everyone knows more than you!! It went out to nearly 40/1 and that was pure crazy, it had to be worth a few bob to win and a little more to place :eek:

    Be Lucky
     
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  10. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Don 2:25 1 Breton Rock 2 Home Of The Brave 3 Spirit of Valor
    Don 3:35 1 Coronet 2 Stradivarius 3 Defoe
    Don 4:45 1 Muntazah 2 You're Fired 3 Battered

    Don 2:25 1 Home Of The Brave 2 Nathra 3 Viscount Barfield
    Don 3:35 1 Defoe 2 Stradivarius 3 Crystal Ocean
    Don 4:45 1 Kryptos 2 Battered 3 Sinfonietta

    2:25 All the figures are very tight, and that includes the prices being offered, however Breton Rock is the only runner with proven form in this class. Read somewhere that Breton Rock doesn't win when he carries a penalty, and that is something I can't/don't quite understand as Breton Rock he hasn't run in a hcp for a long time. I think the defeats are more down to races/conditions not being in his favour. Today he has the ground, and on a quick look the competition to ensure a good early pace. He has a better than fair record on this track, and seems to prefer running around a bend. Can't argue that the figures show he has lost a little on the speed figures, but still up to scratch class wise. Home Of The Brave is the real pace angle as he has the class to run to his s/f. In saying that his profile does suggest he is slightly under this class. Spirit of Valor, another who may just lack the class to step up for this. the going and course also raise doubts for me. I would want a better price before I could back Breton Rock.
    3:35 I was hopeful of finding a bet in this as I have the favourite well down the rankings. However on checking out the prices being offered I find they are all to tight on the top ranked horses. I make Coronet the class horse, but for some reason I find myself doubting the York form that gives her that figure. One reason for that is her profile suggests she is better on stiff courses on better going. Stradivarius form is based on just the one run and it is another run that may just prove more than a little faltering. Defoe I make him the joint weakest class wise of all the runners and his profile doesn't suggest to me he was/is considered a true Leger. Just a good/fair horse who may as well take his chance. Jockey is a major plus but that in its self isn't enough. This brings me to my Ante Post bet Raheen House, a bet that was struck some time ago. A little disappointed he didn't do better in the ranking but he does look as if he has been targeted at this unlike a few of the better fancied horses. I will leave the win part of the bet as is but top up the place aspect. Apart from that nothing else in this race.
    4:45 When I went to bed last night You're Fired was going to be my bet in this but after a nights sleep I have decided this may well just be a prep for the Cambridgeshire in a couple of weeks. That looks a sensible target as this horse likes straight stiff courses and the going should suit. Trainer in very good form and I'm more than pleased to see him come back after the way he was treated. For me his only crime was not training horses for the Queen then he would have been home free!! The other two in the final ranking are far to tight to interest me.

    Be Lucky
     
  11. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Sand 3:05 1 Richard Pankhurst 2 D'bai 3 Naval Warfare
    Yar 3:50 1 Titi Makfi 2 Vintage Folly 3 Beautiful Morning

    Probables
    Sand 3:05 1 Naval Warfare 2 D'bai 3 Laidback Romeo
    Yar 3:50 1 Titi Makfi 2 Vintage Folly 3 Indulged


    Nothing betting wise for me here. Although I have near enough decided to leave some of these smaller races alone, I have been asked to carry on showing the figures as some don't like to just stick to the better races. For some reason I have also been asked to carry on giving my thoughts on said races, although I'm not sure why as I think it is much better for others to work out which horses they want to back and my thoughts shouldn't really come into it!!

    3:05 only two horse have proven form in higher class but both are very in and out form wise at the moment. Of the top three I would favour D'bai, one racing pundit seemed to think his last run wasn't that good I can't understand why. The going was very soft and there is a sharpish bend in the race and it is very possible the pace of the race was against him as it was in France. D'bai ran his best race so far on a stiff course (although it is a straight course) and Sandown should suit him better than France. Naval Warfare won last time out when dropped in class and goes back up again. For me the only thing in his favour is his trainer and I find it hard to believe the trainer would run him here if he didn't think the horse had improved. But improve he has to as he still hasn't an entry on the d/base and his best wins have been in small fields although the course and going should suit.



    Be Lucky
     
  12. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 4:00 1 Golden Stunner 2 Tupi 3 Princess De Lune

    Probables
    Newb 4:00 1 Princess De Lune 2 Dream Of Dreams 3 Accidental Agent


    4:00 Golden Stunner could find her form now she is back on better than good going, and on a straight course. But being a female who seemed to lose her form around this time of the year last season there could be other reason for the lose of form. She looks to be drawn with horse that have some early pace and that are good enough to lead her well into the race. Tupi is a hard horse to pin down, first glance says he is a 6f horse but his best figures are over a stiff 8f on firm going. He is the class horse by some distance but can he run to those figures on this course? Princess De Lune the first thing I did when I saw this name was to look to see if she had any interesting races coming up a prep for something bigger. However she hasn't and as this very good trainer usually has something in mind I have to wonder if this is the target. She has shown she can handle this straight course and, she has been pulled out because of the going in the past so the absence hasn't been down to injury, well all of it. Looks like he was waiting for the ground. I have her as the strongest probable but with that being based on just the one run the ranking could be flattering. Golden Stunner small win loaded place.

    Nothing was put up yesterday because the 3:00 at Yarmouth was advertised as a class 2 but in truth fell well short of it when the competition was looked at. So a race that fell well short of the class I'm looking for. The 4:10 was a very different kettle of fish and the only reason I didn't put it up was I truly expected the top rated to be far to short to be a bet. Really should have known better as a lot of top weights are given the elbow because they are the top weight, and then to cap it all the horse drifts another negative for many. Again I ask why do so many think the general public, and/or bookies know more the you? A horse doesn't need to be a short price to have a realistic chance of winning, it just needs to have the form that doesn't jump out at everyone.

    Be Lucky
     
  13. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newb 2:15 1 Second Step 2 Desert Encounter 3 My Dream Boat
    Newm3:10 1 Arthur Mc Bride 2 Taws 3 Time To Study
    Newb 3:25 1 Euginio 2 Teodoro 3 Brorocco
    Cat 4:45 1 Mukhayyam 2 Je Suis Charlie 3 Wotabreeze

    Probables
    Newb 2:15 1 Second Step 2 Dylan Mouth 3 Fabricate
    Newm3:10 1 Taws 2 Arthur McBride 3 Time To Study
    Newb 3:25 1 Teodoro 2 Euginio 3 Azari
    Cat 4:45 1 Je Suis Charlie 2 Wotabreeze 3 Mr Sundowner

    2:15 Of these three My Dream Boat is the sort of price that would interest me. He is the class horse and this is a slight drop in class. However he isn't that consistent but is that down to running in class slightly above his true grade? Another negative is his best form has been on stiff courses and Newbury doesn't fit that description for me. Second Step is consistent and this helps his final figures and the course is the one that he scored his best figures on so no problems there. He just has to find some improvement to confirm his ranking. Desert Encounter there has to be some doubt re the course, going, and distance. He does look to have a right hand bias and even with five good looking/reasonable wins to his name only one entry on the d/base. One horse that grabbed my attention if the going gets really soft is What About Carlo four entries on the d/base and ALL of them achieved on this course Unless it pours down for What About Carlo I'm giving the race a miss.
    3:10 Much as I like and look for these long distance hcp I can't get interested in this one. Arthur McBride is the top rated of the consistent horses but my cross check doesn't like him one bit well out of it on that.
    3:25 Euginio I make him the class horse but have to admit I'm more than a little confused as I expected with the stable and jockey for this horse to be much shorter. Two negatives for me are the quick return to the track, and the "driven" in the last race comments. Teodoro much as I like the jockey I can't really see this horse being good enough based on what it has done to date, no entry on the d/base so plenty to find. Brorocco again a trainer I look for in this type of race, but much is being made of how unlucky he was last time out. I'm happy to accept horses are unlucky at times but when it is hyped the value has gone. Eddystone Rock is the horse some think was helped by Brorocco's bad luck but for me Brorocco has plenty to find re the cross check and I make Eddystone Rock the better horse and his final ranking is hampered by taking the form figures at face value. I'm backing Euginio and Eddystone Rock small win loaded place to half stakes on both.
    4:45 this is one of the races I'm cutting out. No bet.

    Be Lucky
     
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  14. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 4:20 1 Nearly Caught 2 Higher Power 3 Uae King

    Probables
    Newm 4:20 1 Jukebox Jive 2 Face The Facts 3 Uae King

    This race is right on the cusp of races I have decided to give a miss, if there had been anything being offered at a decent price I would have had to make a decision, but as it stands there is nothing here for me value wise.

    4:20 both of the top two in the ranking look to have a possible problem with the going and Nearly Caught does seem to have a right hand bias or at lest they keep him to those tracks. He does seem to have a fair/good record in the Cesarewitch but I can't see any entry for him in that, so this isn't a prep for it, but just could be for an Ascot race. Higher Power is the class horse and also hold the Ascot entry however I'm having a bit of a problem working out his profile. I know nothing about the going on the a/w, but the profile on the turf is quite strange. Twice he has been pulled out because of unsuitable ground at Newmarket (firm) but his best ever performance was on firm ground so is it the course rather than the going that is the problem? Uae King another with that Ascot entry and has a fair bit to find here class wise on all known form. Is still young and open to further improvement although have to admit the race comments of driven are a bit off putting for me. Out of these three I would have to side with Uae King as I can see no reason the going and/or course would/could be a problem but as said at the start I would want a better price to get involved. No bet

    Be Lucky
     
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  15. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Newm 1:50 1 Muffri'Ha 2 Desert Haze 3 Amabilis
    Newm 2:25 1 Elas Ruby 2 Elbereth 3 Fleur Forsyte
    Newm 3:35 1 Mustashry 2 Custom Cut 3 Sovereign Debt
    Newm 5:20 1 Addeybb 2 Mon Beau Visage 3 Daira Prince

    Probables
    Newm 1:50 1 Amabilis 2 Aquamarina 3 Good Way Off
    Newm 2:25 1 Fleur Forsyte 2 Pleasant Surprise 3 Elas Ruby
    Newm 3:35 1 Whisky Baron 2 Beat The Bank 3 Mustashry
    Newm 5:20 1 Mon Beau Visage 2 Daira Prince 3 Fire Brigade

    1:50 Only Desert Haze is a good enough price to interest me in this. However the fact she seems to perform best at Goodwood is more than a bit of a worry as they are very different types of courses. A positive is that it does look as if she has been put away targeted at this but the trainer has another entry that is well up in the rankings. The target comment also applies to Muffri'Ha and she look s to have a better chance of landing the spoils. This is her course type stiff, and time of the year + all going seem fine, to for me the only negative is the place price. The trainer running Amabilis is the biggest worry about Desert Haze and stops it being a bet. Amabilis can/should handle the track and going. I make her the strongest probable, but the fact she was won nearly 50% of her races and some have been in a good class she still has gained an entry on the d/base. But it is obvious the trainer rates her.
    2:25 All three of the top ranked horse are priced to match the figures. Leaving little, or no value
    3:35 Two of these three are getting more than a little old, and I would hope one of the younger horses will improve past them. In saying that Mustashry is only just behind Custom Cut and is a lot younger. There is a slight doubt for me re the course as he seems to show his best on flat "speed" course and of course the trainer's profile always reduces the price. No bet
    5:20 I try to avoid these consolation races as it is nearly impossible to know if the trainer was aiming for this or the real thing. Here it reads to me that the Saturday's race was Addeybb's was the target. The price is shot to pieces and it is a waste of time for me to look any further into his chances. At the other end of the hcp I don't really think the trainer ever thought Daira Prince would get into the big one so it is just possible the horse was being lined up for this. The stiff course shouldn't be a problem and hopefully the going won't get too soft. Daira Prince small win loaded place to half stakes.

    Be Lucky
     
  16. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Hay 2:05 1 Muntadab 2 Quixote 3 Original Choice
    Newm 3:35 1 Master The World 2 Carry On Deryck 3 Thundering Blue
    Hay 5:00 1 Sepal 2 Suegioo 3 Getback In Paris
    Newm 5:20 1 Bertiewhittle 2 Accession 3 Ower Fly

    Probables
    Hay 2:05 1 Original Choice 2 Muntadab 3 King's Pavilion
    Newm 3:35 1 Thundering Blue 2 Brorocco 3 Novoman
    Hay 5:00 1 Sepal 2 Amazing Red 3 Getback In Paris
    Newm 5:20 1 Ower Fly 2 Ice Lord 3 Scofflaw


    2:05 As long as the going isn't too soft Muntadab has shown he can handle soft going. His best has been on a speed course over 6f, but it was in a higher class than this. Quixote is the other horse with proven form in a higher class and is just the class horse. The problem with him is he doesn't seem to like the soft. As the race isn't that strong class wise it is a race I would be ignoring from now on as a betting proposition. No Bet
    3:35 Master The World is the class horse and I do hope history isn't going to repeat its self today. Last season I ignore my top rated because I was convinced a straight course wouldn't suit, so it promptly won. This year I have the same doubts about Master The World and straight courses. I know he was placed in a Cambridheshire a couple of years ago and his figures are quite good but his recent runs have confirmed for me anyway he is better around a bend. Carry On Deryck is another who has been place in this race in the past, but tyhat was on very different going. Thundering Blue is improving no doubt about that and does have winning form on this stiff course however his much better figures were scored on a stiff course with a short run in. They had to slow down to get around the bend and then his acceleration took over there is no bend to slow them down here!! Plus the cross check says he has plenty to do and that is confirmed by the class figures. I had an ante post bet on You're Fired a couple of weeks ago. I know he doesn't shown in the top three in the rankings but he is a close up fourth and the second best horse class wise. I know nothing about the jockey but was quite impressed with the ride he gave this horse last time out, kept him well out of the firing line and came through for a nice place a perfect prep? I have also backed Eddystone Rock as after watching his last run I don't think the horse was ever put into the race with a chance. Not that well drawn and still ran on without the dreaded words driven + the going looks a little more suitable. Just topping up the place part of the ante post on You're Fired, and the usual small win loaded place to 5th place on Eddystone Rock
    5:00 Once again the presence of Suegioo would be a problem if this was a race for me to back in, it isn't. The place money is too small and the class is quite weak, Have to admit I can't get over how old some/most of the class horses are.
    5:20 The above remarks also apply to this race re age and class no bet

    Be Lucky
     
  17. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    Ascot 2:25 1 Waldgeist 2 Great Hall 3 Danehill Kodiac
    Newm2:40 1 Persuasive 2 Roly Poly 3 Usherette
    Ascot 3:35 1 Mitchum Swagger 2 Mojito 3 Mjjack
    Red 3:55 1 Yattwee 2 Jallota 3 Don't Touch
    Ascot 4:10 1 Pirouette 2 Xenobia 3 Eternally
    Newm4:25 1 Crowning Glory 2 Indian Blessing 3 Shenanigans
    Red 4:30 1 Khamaary 2 Zodiakos 3 Off Art
    Newm5:00 1 Lorelina 2 Twenty Times 3 Blushing Rose
    Newm5:35 1 Ebbesbourne 2 Cribbs Causeway 3 White Chocolate

    Probables
    Ascot 2:25 1 Great Hall 2 Danehill Kodiac 3 Secret Number
    Newm2:40 1 Aljazzi 2 Usherette 3 Muffri'Ha
    Ascot 3:35 1 Mojito 2 Makzeem 3 Lord Glitters
    Red 3:55 1 Lahore 2 Stamp Hill 3 Yattwee
    Ascot 4:10 1 Xenobia 2 Bumptious 3 Eternally
    Newm4:25 1 Shenanigans 2 Crowning Glory 3 Panova
    Red 4:30 1 Off Art 2 Ventura Secret3 Silvery Moon
    Newm5:00 1 Blushing Rose 2 Lorelina 3 Twenty Times
    Newm5:35 1 Cribbs Causeway 2 White Chocolate 3 Elysian Fields

    2:25 I would expect Waldgeist to win this but the price doesn't interest me in the slightest
    2:40 Spent far to long looking at this race and have to admit the French form is very hard to work out even though there wers enough British runner to ensure a true pace. The final figures are too tight and offer little value, although it will be an interesting race to watch.
    3:35 I have to admit here I have surprised myself in as much as I have marked Mitchum Swagger down with a Time-form like squiggle!! A bit of a rouge. However when his profile is looked at closely he runs to it often. Give him soft going and a stiff course when he is dropped into his true class he runs to that profile, today this drop in class looks just about right. For me a strong underrated jockey is also a help. Mojito has a little something to find class wise, although he is ultra consistent of the runner with a d/base entry he is the second lowest and his best to date has been on a speed course on better going. I think Mjjack could be the major danger he likes the course and going. He has proven form in this class in fact while he does have a lot going for him a slight worry is the hard race last time out and the change of jockey. Ok I can see the trainer may think 3lbs less will help but although this apprentice has won on him he does lack the strength and experience of the last Jockey. Mitchum Swagger small win loaded place.
    4:25 & 5:35 I did spend some time looking at Indian Blessing and Ebbesbourne, but as these are races i have decided to leave alone unless something really stands out I gave up. so nothing in the races from the 4:10.

    Be Lucky
     
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  18. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 2:45 1 Cote d'Azur 2 Highland Colori 3 One Word More
    Newm3:00 1 Massaat 2 Limato 3 Gifted Master
    York 3:55 1 Face The Facts 2 Star Rock 3 Gold Star
    Newm 4:10 1 Winston C 2 First Nation 3 Humble Hero
    Newm 5:20 1 Chain Of Daisies 2 Permission 3 Architecture

    Probables
    York 2:45 1 Zabeel Prince 2 Zwayyan 3 Home Cummins
    Newm3:00 1 Gifted Master 2 Absolutely So 3 Massaat
    York 3:55 1 Star Rock 2 Gold Star 3 Percy's Word
    Newm 4:10 1 Humble Hero 2 Duke Of Bronte 3 Torcello
    Newm 5:20 1 Crimson Rock 2 Uae Queen 3 Permission

    2:45 I thought there could well be a bet in this, but after a lot of thought I have decided to give it a miss. Cote d'Azur is an inform class horse but I think the last run was the target and that looked a hard race. I'm basing that not only on the ridden in the race comments but also that stiff course seemed against the previous profile. I know the horse has been gelded and that could bring about a change to the profile but that was a hard race and not much time to recover.Highland Colori really is getting too old to be winning races of this class but nobody seems to have told him!! His figures are not that old and they confirm he has maintained most of his ability. Course type doesn't seem to make any/much difference but I would hope something a bit younger can confirm what the cross check shows he really should struggle in this class now. As said I'm not backing but if pushed I would have to side with One Word More, York is where he seems to save his best for. He is only slightly younger than Highland Colori but at least he has shown he can achieve his best on this course.
    3:00 I can't see any value in these prices
    3:55 Face The Facts ticks most if not all the boxes, improving, only proven class horse in the race. There is always something that brings a little doubt, and here it has to be the drop in distance on this going. However I think the price more than covers that worry and I make him a bet small win loaded place.
    4:10 Winston C has been marked down as a horse to look out for, but hasn't performed as expected in his last few runs. That maybe a litle harsh, but I did read the trainer thought the extra couple of furlongs would suit (perhaps the bus driver doesn't always know :acute:). Both of his last two runs have been form runs in my opinion but they failed to collect. I'm just watching him today
    5:20 Chain Of Daisies is the class horse but her best recent form has been on a very different course type, however she does have very good figures when winning on this course. Here I'm siding with Permission a younger improving horse. The improvement was achieved on this course and the extra distance should be a help. I'm hoping the slow starts where by design noy anything else. Permission small win loaded place.

    Be Lucky
     
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  19. mtoto

    mtoto Colt

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    York 2:05 1 Chelsea Lad 2 Big Country 3 Anythingtoday
    Chep3:35 1 Dolos 2 Champagne City 3 Talent To Amuse
    Newm 3:40 1 Fun Mac 2 Magic Circle 3 Time To Study
    Chep 4:10 1 Old Guard 2 Bags Groove 3 Peak To Peak
    Chep 4:45 1 Sizing Codelco 2 Rock The Kasbah 3 Marcilhac
    Newm 5:25 1 Sovereign Debt 2 Robin Of Navan 3 Monarchs Glen

    Probables
    York 2:05 1 Empress Ali 2 Anythingtoday 3 Chelsea Lad
    Chep3:35 1 Champagne City 2 Talent To Amuse 3 Dolos
    Newm 3:40 1 Time To Study 2 London Prize 3 Dubawi Fifty
    Chep 4:10 1 Peak To Peak 2 Bags Groove 3 Louis' vac Pouch
    Chep 4:45 1 Sizing Codelco 2 Marcilhac 3 Label Des Obeaux
    Newm 5:25 1 Monarchs Glen 2 Forest Ranger 3 Spark Plug

    2:05 The top three seems to reflect the market leaving no or very little value. If pushed I would have to side with Anythingtoday the young(er) improving horse. While I usually like to see the same jockey ridding the horse in this case I'm more than happy with the change of jockey I think he needs stronger handling than the lady jockey seems capable of. No bet
    3:35 Dolos is the class horse and ticks the all the boxes , apart from the price box and the trainer's reputation isn't a help there. I would want a better price as many are unexposed in this field. No bet.
    3:40 Fun Mac's best recent figures have been on stiff courses and in this sort of class I think he needs at least good going to show his best . His best figures were scored on this course, on firm going, and a slightly shorter distance. He is the clear class horse and only fails on consistency and that can be put down to the last race. That race reads like a prep with the change of tactics from the usual profile, fair enough they lead all the way in France but the racing is different there!! Magic Circle, I have a question mark against this course being suitable in this class. There also is a slight doubt re the going, although I'm trying to ignore the going doubts, but it keeps flashing up in the back of my mind. Time To Study has won 50% of the races he has run in but still hasn't registered on the d/base. He holds his ranking as the strongest probable but has to improve a lot to prove he can hold his own in this class. The profile doesn't suggest to me this is the course type for him to prove it. Fun Mac's price is that big I'm more than happy to have a small win bet and a place bet to 5th place to half stakes.
    4:10 Old Guard is in danger of becoming a cliff horse for me as his figures are just too good to ignore. He seems to need an undulating course, early in the season, he has that again today. His best figures and wins have all been before Christmas. I just feel if he can regain his best form he could tirn out to be a top class hurdler. Bags Groove has plenty to find class wise and the profile doesn't really suggest this course is a help. Peak To Peak maybe the fly in the ointment, same trainer as Old Guard so they should know what they are capable of. I'm hoping this is just a prep/trial to find out what they have. Old Guard small win loaded place to half stakes.
    4:45 Sizing Codelco was seriously considered but past over as I just feel this is a prep for something a little more valuable No bet
    5:25 Robin Of Navan is a horse ear marked to look out for when it runs in Britain. I think he is slightly better when given a lead into the closing stages, I'm not sure there is anything in this field that can give him a true pace so I'm giving it a miss.

    Be Lucky
     

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