Discussion in 'Chat' started by Keegans head, Aug 4, 2017.
well done with crawley @Keegans head
Thanks @jammy54 @Bold Gait
Today went ok although it was a bit frustrating to see my highlighted team Barnet score 4 without any of my money but Im happy enough at how things are going
Result 2 September
CRAWLEY won 2-0 total profit on two bets 7.5 points
Profit b/f 11 points
Profit today 7.5 points
Profit c/f 18.5 points
A good result with Crawley and you have got a nice start to the season.
Thanks . It's particularly pleasing that teams that I feel are playing well but not getting the results are soon changing there fortunes around and winning its also nice that I've not had to deposit any funds yet this season which helps the confidence.
There's a long way to go and after next week I will be looking at games slightly differently as there are 6 games form to go on so I will be betting at full stakes and I'm fully aware that one bad week could wipe out the good start
But so far so good
Another week which is thin on the ground for opportunities. I'm usually averaging 4 or 5 bets a week but it's another week where I can only find one selection
Although I have a few teams that are rating high they are expected to be
The one game that I have looked at that has a large discrepancy is ACCRINGTON v Carlisle Accrington should have been a lot further ahead before there opponents had there player sent off they are playing consistently well and creating lots of chances carlisle I feel are still trying to find there best team they are no mugs and curle is a good manager but I feel it will take a few more games till he gets it right
ACCRINGTON 3.5 points at 6/5
We will be 6 games in after this weekend's fixtures and I will be betting to full stakes and slightly changing my selections ratings method so hopefully more points will be bet weekly from now on
Result 9 September
ACCRINGTON won 3-0 profit 4.25 points
Profit b/f 18.5 points
Profit tdy 4.25 points
Profit c/f 22.75 points
Hopefully more selections and better prices for next weeks fixtures
Plenty going on with a full midweek fixture list after a quiet couple of weeks there's a few bets to be had tomorrow and at good prices
Aston villa v MIDDLESBROUGH villa are still being priced up on there reputation and not the way they are playing whereas Boro are getting there strike force into gear and hopefully will continue to improve my ratings have Boro far superior but can be had at 2/1 so 5pts at that price
Northampton v PORTSMOUTH bottom at the weekend Northampton with a new manager won but they were still outclassed by the opposition Portsmouth didn't let there opponents get a single shot on target on Sat and I don't think Northampton will produce many either tomorrow so in my opinion 6/4 is a very good price and will have 6 points at that
Two matches in this league are exactly what I look for teams that are losing but playing well v teams winning but playing rubbish on my ratings
Coventry v CARLISLE I backed against Carlisle on saturday and they did lose by three but the game was a lot closer than that and Carlisle played well . Coventry seem to be scraping results against poor teams . Carlisle are not poor at at 3/1 are worth 6 points
Yeovil v MORECAMBE its not so much Morecambe are good it that Yeovil are terrible after shipping in so many goals early season they have concentrated on defence with the outcome they are not producing anything up front . Morecambe arnt as poor as results suggest and create quite a lot of chances each game and I'm sure they can score a couple tomorrow . Because I have Yeovil so poor on my rating there is a large descrepancy which makes Morecambe a large 8 point bet at 5/2 I was toying with the idea of draw no bet but I'd kick myself if they won
I've also picked out 4 teams at good prices that I have better rated than there opposition and don't won't to miss them Walsall at 16/5 Southend 5/2 Grimsby 10/3 Wycombe 16/5 1point on each so only 1 winner will limit any loses
BORO 5 points 2/1
PORTSMOUTH 6 points 6/4
CARLISLE 6 points 3/1
MORECAMBE 8 points 5/2
Above 4 4 points various
Total staked 29 points
This is a massive stake for me and I must admit if I wasn't in profit I'd be very nervous and would maybe look for excuses not to bet but I've not changed the way I look at games to have more bets it's just the way the fixtures have landed and produced decent opportunities.
Bad luck last night @Keegans head and typical it happens when you have a lot riding on it.
Your ideas and theories deserved a lot more than what you got yesterday
Thanks very much for the likes and encouragement it's very much appreciated.
Awful awful night last night after a good start to the season . I'm hoping it was just one of those things where all the bad results came together at once but it has certainly given me a reality check from my confidence being sky high to taking a battering . I'm not going to quit and I will see this out for the rest of the season so you will get a warts and all picture every week of the ups and downs of my betting season
It's typical that as soon as I'm betting to full stakes the bad result starts but I'm not going to change anything about the way I do things Im just hoping the bad all came at once . You never know this step back down to earth might do me some good
Here's the update
Profit b/f 22.75 points
Loss yst 24.75 points ( grimbsy won at 10/3 )
Loss c/f 2.00 points
On to Saturday and as I said before you will get a full season of all the bets I do but I feel after last night I just need a break from it for a few days and I feel Saturday will come to soon for me but I'm sure I will be raring to go the following week
I'm only 2 points down so my season will start again soon .
Feeling positive already
I've not really had a look at the midweek fixtures as for any bets today so these choices are just how I see the team's through previous weeks
Walsall as I still think they can score goals
Lincoln as I have them best in league 2
Grimsby as Yeovil struggle with defence
Cambridge as I think Coventry are overrated
Just a 1point trebles and acc
Back to full stakes and analysis next week
2 out of the above 4 won today so would of shown a slight level stakes profit
I don't know if it's pleasing or not that the 3 teams i picked as playing well won today after Tuesday's disaster
@Keegans head maybe I am being thick here , but how would you have shown a slight profit with 2 winners , when you stated 1pt trebles and acc. ?
No I showed a loss on the trebles . What I was meaning was if I stuck to the original singles staking as they won at 6/4 and evens . Sorry for the confusion
Saturday 23rd September
Preston v MILLWALL nothing wrong with Prestons rating but I feel millwall are on the upturn and are rapidly improving they anilated leeds one nil last Saturday and should of won by more the price isn't brilliant at 13/5 but I'm sure they will continue to attack and score goals tomorrow
Sunderland v CARDIFF Cardiff have been consistently high on my ratings each week .whereas sunderland have produced more minus figures than any team in the three lower divisions this season and again played poorly last Saturday
Doubt and nerves will have now set in so at 6/4 I will bet Cardiff
COVENTRY v exeter I've previously dismissed Coventry as been very average but there last two games have shown a marked improvement and on my ratings they produced the seasons highest last week I'm hoping they can't continue to improve . They play a top of the table exeter who i have rated as mid table . It seems like the layers agree with me as Coventry despite not been the form team are only 5/4 although this is dissapointing I feel as though I still have to back them
MILLWALL 5points at 13/5
CARDIFF 6points at 6/4
COVENTRY 6points at 5/4
Results from 23rd September
MILLWALL drew 0-0 loss 5 points
CARDIFF won 2-1 prft 9 points
COVENTRY won 2-0 prft 7.5 point
Feel a lot better after these results . MILLWALL was disappointing as they didn't play there usual attacking game and went for a point
B/f loss 3 points
Today prft 11.5 pts
C/f prft 8.5 pts
Tuesday 26th September
BRENTFORD v derby Brentford have been playing well all season and finally came good against a not too bad Bolton side on saturday . There opponents had the worst of the game against a poor Birmingham team . At 7/5 it's worth a 5 point bet.
IPSWICH v Sunderland Ipswich produced a good rating v leeds on Sat and Sunderland failed to register a positive figure yet again and are consistently bad
the bookies just don't like Ipswich at all and at 6/4 are a good price
Plymouth recorded the lowest rating if any team on saturday and I will be having a couple of bets against them.
Bradford would be a bet v Fleetwood but are below evens
WIGAN v Plymouth Wigan are so far ahead on my ratings that they would be a nine point bet but at 2/5 I will have to look beyond singles .
BRENTFORD 5 points at 7/5
IPSWICH 6 points at 6/4
WIGAN 4points at 5/2 minus 2 on handicap
WIGAN 2 points at 4/1 to score 4 plus goals
Just catching up - great to see 2/3 bets come in for you with your last selections!
Maybe I must be missing something here?
Your losing "1 point trebles and acc" were carried forward as a 1 point loss.
So was that 4 x 0.2 trebles and 1 x 0.2 accumulator?
Not hard really . I staked 1 point add the 2 points I was losing makes 3
I'm obviously the only one confused here, because nobody else has commented. So please be gentle with me.
#49 loss c/f 2 pts
#50 4 selections, 1pt trebles and acc
#51 you report 2 of the 4 won (so I'm assuming all trebles and the acc lost)
#55 your next accounting notes ... "B/f loss 3 points"
This suggests to me your 1pt trebles & acc just lost 1 point?
... but in "normal" parlance 1pt trebles & acc on 4 selections would infer 5 points staked.
Similarly early on, you had a 1 point trixie (4 points staked??), only 1 of the 3 won. In a follow up post you reported "other, 1 point lost"
Sorry for the obvious confusion . When I stake 1 point it means I stake 1 point in total . The bet cost me £25 as I stated confidence was low and I didn't want to miss out if they won .
After tonight's football I won't be posting any of my selections on a points basis or updates of profit/loss . I will however continue to highlight teams I feel will do well
Hopefully this should stop any confusion
I'm placing a few bets for Saturday's matches tonight as I think prices might alter after today's games
Bolton to score two v villa as Bolton arnt playing as bad as there results they have just been unlucky to be playing highly rated teams each week
Sheff wed to beat leeds as I have leeds at below average
I have to admit I haven't seen a problem with your record keeping @Keegans head , and you're putting up the points you are staking also gives us an idea of your confidence level in each bet, so personally speaking I would like it if you would carry on with the way you are going.
Whatever you decide best of luck with this thread.
@Keegans head I agree with @dave58 just carry on as normal mate, as what you are doing is clear to me and very informative and good fun.
Not too sure about the Aston Villa bet, but I agree re Sheffield Wednesday, for what it is worth - best of luck with both of them!
Totally agree even though you were down on Leeds chances in last nights post - although you were spot on could not beat Cardiff - so you have spotted something - keep on doing what yer doing
Last night's results
BRENTFORD drew 1-1 still playing better than opposition but still not winning
IPSWICH won 5-2
WIGAN won 1-0 but bet lost . Wigan had 27 shots and 15 corners yet still only scored one
b/f 8.5 points
Last night loss 2 points .
C /f 6.5 points
Thanks @dave58 @Bold Gait @markfinn
Could of gone better but that's football . I always struggle to have time to collate all the info I use when there is a mid week fixture list ready for Saturday as the usual source is unavailable added to the fact that I'm going to the golf up the road means it will be impossible to have my figures ready in time
.I will though be having bets but not from the ratings these won't be as strong as my usual choices and will all be less than half normal stakes .
I have had 1 point on Bolton to score two v villa . Bolton are just so unlucky to be playing the form team each week . They haven't scored for ages but they create chances and 9/2 is a big price
2 points on sheff wed to beat leeds at 13/10 is fair as I feel leeds have been going backwards the last few games
The Sheffield leeds derby is always one of the most explosive games of the season and with recent losses passion will be high .while looking for prices on the booking index I noticed sky bet have an added time market for first and second half
There is going to be lots of injuries in this game and 8+minutes at 6/1 is too tempting to me so 3.5 points
Back with the ratings next week
Results 1st October
Bolton no goals scored loss 1 point
Sheff wed won 2-0 win 2.5 points
Added time 9 mins win 21 points
B/f profit 6.5 points
Won tdy 22.5 points
C/f profit 29 points
Had the luck on my side today . I gave the ratings a miss this week due to lack of time so the above selections were just based on how I saw the games
Bolton had ten shots but still can't find the net but they will come good soon
Leeds continue to be overrated due to their good start and are now being found out
The price of the added time market was just to good to miss . It's the first time I have seen this market and I'm sure sky won't be offering 6/1 again in a derby game it will be interesting to see if they continue with this market
I'll be up to date with the figures soon and post any league one and two selections later in the week
@Keegans head, i joined you in the extra time bet, small stakes, well done.
Extra time bet - what will they think of next LOL. Excellent odds though - well done and with Sheffield Wednesday.
I looked at the odds for automatic promotion for Leeds at the start of the season and if I remember correctly they were 12/1. Yep, bookies get it wrong occasionally, but in my view it said it all about this season's chances of going straight up! (before I am publicly pilloried by Leeds fans, I support two teams and one of them is Leeds LOL)
The above post directed at you really, but forgot to do the @ bit!
Selections 7th October
DONCASTER v Southend . This is the type of game I look for teams that are playing well and losing v teams that are playing poorly but winning when looking at the game I was hoping for 6/4 but can only manage 11/10 but I have them so far ahead that anything above evens will do .
PLYMOUTH V FLEETWOOD . These two teams are rating very poorly week in week out and I currently have them both on minus figures . I've checked previous results when teams both rate low and noticed that these games tend to be low scoring I'll see how this market goes to low stakes for now
Accrington v LUTON Luton have been getting consistently better on my ratings each week and I think they are capable now if putting a good run together .
Nothing wrong with accrington but I don't think they will be able to play their normal game here so 6/4 looks decent
DONCASTER 8 points at 11/10
PLYMOUTH game under 1.5 goals 2 points at 9/4
LUTON 5 points at 6/4
I still haven't lost faith in Bolton and I will be watching how Bradfords opposition perform in the coming weeks as I have them on a sharp downturn at the moment
Looking more closely at Bradford and I'm hoping they continue on the downturn on my figures
They are a team that can play great football but in there last 3 games there opponents have all had many chances and should of won
They play m k dons this week and my ratings show them mid table I have them ahead of Bradford but not enough to bet singles
I have therefore bet 4 points on mk dons at 15/4 to win and over 2.5 goals in match
Good luck today with this (I have actually followed you - simple singles doubles and treble win only no score dependant) very impressed with the way set your stall out and grasp of the game - thanks for sharing
Two good wins for you there @Keegans head and only two points lost on the Plymouth match, so your staking seems to be working too!
Thanks @markfinn @Bold Gait
It was pleasing that the two main bets won but it was a case of what if in the other two matches as m k dons had a man sent off in the fifth minute which killed the game and Fleetwood scoring in the last minute but that's how football goes
On the plus side I might be able to get a better price about Bradfords future opposition they play bury Oldham and Charlton in the coming two weeks and I'm sure they can't keep getting these results
Doncaster won 4-1 win 8.5 points
Low score 2 goals lost 2 points
Luton won 2-0 win 7.5 points
M k dons lost 1-4 lose 4 points
B/f profit 29 points
Today profit 10 points
C/f Profit 39 points
I'm kicking myself with the two losing bets really as they wernt from my usual ratings process and I vowed at the end of last season to try and cut these down .
With winter now well on the way I won't be working as many hours so I will have time to look at the non league clubs and will be betting on these games to low stakes in the coming weeks
Saturday 14th October
No games this week that warrant having any large single bets using my ratings as there is only Luton that are so far ahead of the opposition but they are odds on so no bet
I have bet on a couple of teams that I have previously highlighted as playing better and worse than the results suggest
BOLTON have only 2 points but they should have many more and always create lots of chances but somehow can't hit the back of the net and surely it's just a matter of time at 15/4 against an average sheff wed team is worth 2 points
BURY v Bradford again it's not through ratings just my thoughts .I've had Bradford on a downturn the last three games the did rate well last week but they played against a ten man team for 85 minutes .these figures are often distorted and I take points off the attacking team but it's hard to assess these matches
But I've bet at 5/2 as I would be kicking myself if I missed this price
.confidence is a big thing in football and I'm sure Bradford will be full of it so just 2 points at this price
LUTON as I said last Saturday I'm sure they can put a run together and I don't think a Stevenage team that rated in minus figures last week will threaten them
The price of 4/6 isn't actually bad but I won't back odds on .I'm sure they have lots of goals in them in this form so 2 points at 5/2 to score over 2 goals
I don't have a brilliant record with my own choices but at those prices just one winner won't see any damage done
These prices were obtained at 365 yesterday but having a quick look before I posted this I notice that the 15/4 is now 16/5 the 5/2 now 2/1 and the Luton 5/2 now 12/5
I like to take the prices on a Sunday if I can and as there was less games to assess this week due to no championship games i was able to do so
No non league this week as its the fa cup for them and won't be looking at any cup games league or non league
BOLTON 2 points at 15/4
BURY 2 points at 5/2
LUTON o 2.5 2 points at 5/2
TRIXIE above 1 point ( the trixie is 1 point in total outlay )
I like Bolton and Bury and one result from the two will put you in profit. Best of luck with these @Keegans head
Bingo @Keegans head
Oh and 8 goals in the Luton match LOL
Thanks @Bold Gait it all came together today although it was all to small stakes its nice to see them win . I will have a look at today's games tomorrow and post updates and next weeks bets.
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