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My football bets 2017/2018

Discussion in 'Chat' started by Keegans head, Aug 4, 2017.

  1. jammy54

    jammy54 Gelding

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    djb38, Keegans head and markfinn like this.
  2. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Thanks @jammy54 @Bold Gait

    Today went ok although it was a bit frustrating to see my highlighted team Barnet score 4 without any of my money but Im happy enough at how things are going

    Result 2 September
    CRAWLEY won 2-0 total profit on two bets 7.5 points


    Profit b/f 11 points
    Profit today 7.5 points
    Profit c/f 18.5 points
     
    mandkay, Jamo1812, djb38 and 3 others like this.
  3. Bold Gait

    Bold Gait Filly

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    A good result with Crawley and you have got a nice start to the season. :cool:
     
  4. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Thanks . It's particularly pleasing that teams that I feel are playing well but not getting the results are soon changing there fortunes around and winning its also nice that I've not had to deposit any funds yet this season which helps the confidence.
    There's a long way to go and after next week I will be looking at games slightly differently as there are 6 games form to go on so I will be betting at full stakes and I'm fully aware that one bad week could wipe out the good start
    But so far so good
     
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  5. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    September 9th

    Another week which is thin on the ground for opportunities. I'm usually averaging 4 or 5 bets a week but it's another week where I can only find one selection
    Although I have a few teams that are rating high they are expected to be
    The one game that I have looked at that has a large discrepancy is ACCRINGTON v Carlisle Accrington should have been a lot further ahead before there opponents had there player sent off they are playing consistently well and creating lots of chances carlisle I feel are still trying to find there best team they are no mugs and curle is a good manager but I feel it will take a few more games till he gets it right


    ACCRINGTON 3.5 points at 6/5

    We will be 6 games in after this weekend's fixtures and I will be betting to full stakes and slightly changing my selections ratings method so hopefully more points will be bet weekly from now on
     
    mandkay, djb38, Bold Gait and 4 others like this.
  6. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Result 9 September

    ACCRINGTON won 3-0 profit 4.25 points

    Profit b/f 18.5 points
    Profit tdy 4.25 points
    Profit c/f 22.75 points


    Hopefully more selections and better prices for next weeks fixtures
     
    mandkay, jammy54, djb38 and 3 others like this.
  7. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    September 12th

    Plenty going on with a full midweek fixture list after a quiet couple of weeks there's a few bets to be had tomorrow and at good prices

    Championship

    Aston villa v MIDDLESBROUGH villa are still being priced up on there reputation and not the way they are playing whereas Boro are getting there strike force into gear and hopefully will continue to improve my ratings have Boro far superior but can be had at 2/1 so 5pts at that price

    League one

    Northampton v PORTSMOUTH bottom at the weekend Northampton with a new manager won but they were still outclassed by the opposition Portsmouth didn't let there opponents get a single shot on target on Sat and I don't think Northampton will produce many either tomorrow so in my opinion 6/4 is a very good price and will have 6 points at that

    League two

    Two matches in this league are exactly what I look for teams that are losing but playing well v teams winning but playing rubbish on my ratings

    Coventry v CARLISLE I backed against Carlisle on saturday and they did lose by three but the game was a lot closer than that and Carlisle played well . Coventry seem to be scraping results against poor teams . Carlisle are not poor at at 3/1 are worth 6 points

    Yeovil v MORECAMBE its not so much Morecambe are good it that Yeovil are terrible after shipping in so many goals early season they have concentrated on defence with the outcome they are not producing anything up front . Morecambe arnt as poor as results suggest and create quite a lot of chances each game and I'm sure they can score a couple tomorrow . Because I have Yeovil so poor on my rating there is a large descrepancy which makes Morecambe a large 8 point bet at 5/2 I was toying with the idea of draw no bet but I'd kick myself if they won

    I've also picked out 4 teams at good prices that I have better rated than there opposition and don't won't to miss them Walsall at 16/5 Southend 5/2 Grimsby 10/3 Wycombe 16/5 1point on each so only 1 winner will limit any loses

    BORO 5 points 2/1
    PORTSMOUTH 6 points 6/4
    CARLISLE 6 points 3/1
    MORECAMBE 8 points 5/2
    Above 4 4 points various

    Total staked 29 points

    This is a massive stake for me and I must admit if I wasn't in profit I'd be very nervous and would maybe look for excuses not to bet but I've not changed the way I look at games to have more bets it's just the way the fixtures have landed and produced decent opportunities.
     
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  8. djb38

    djb38 Gelding

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    Bad luck last night @Keegans head and typical it happens when you have a lot riding on it.
    Your ideas and theories deserved a lot more than what you got yesterday
     
    mandkay, thecurlyone1 and dave58 like this.
  9. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Thanks very much for the likes and encouragement it's very much appreciated.

    Awful awful night last night after a good start to the season . I'm hoping it was just one of those things where all the bad results came together at once but it has certainly given me a reality check from my confidence being sky high to taking a battering . I'm not going to quit and I will see this out for the rest of the season so you will get a warts and all picture every week of the ups and downs of my betting season

    It's typical that as soon as I'm betting to full stakes the bad result starts but I'm not going to change anything about the way I do things Im just hoping the bad all came at once . You never know this step back down to earth might do me some good

    Here's the update

    Profit b/f 22.75 points
    Loss yst 24.75 points ( grimbsy won at 10/3 )
    Loss c/f 2.00 points

    On to Saturday and as I said before you will get a full season of all the bets I do but I feel after last night I just need a break from it for a few days and I feel Saturday will come to soon for me but I'm sure I will be raring to go the following week
    I'm only 2 points down so my season will start again soon .

    Feeling positive already
     
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  10. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    I've not really had a look at the midweek fixtures as for any bets today so these choices are just how I see the team's through previous weeks

    Walsall as I still think they can score goals
    Lincoln as I have them best in league 2
    Grimsby as Yeovil struggle with defence
    Cambridge as I think Coventry are overrated

    Just a 1point trebles and acc

    Back to full stakes and analysis next week
     
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  11. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    2 out of the above 4 won today so would of shown a slight level stakes profit
    I don't know if it's pleasing or not that the 3 teams i picked as playing well won today after Tuesday's disaster
    Onwards
     
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  12. tractorboy

    tractorboy Mare

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    @Keegans head maybe I am being thick here , but how would you have shown a slight profit with 2 winners , when you stated 1pt trebles and acc. ?
     
  13. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    No I showed a loss on the trebles . What I was meaning was if I stuck to the original singles staking as they won at 6/4 and evens . Sorry for the confusion
     
    tractorboy likes this.
  14. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Saturday 23rd September

    Championship

    Preston v MILLWALL nothing wrong with Prestons rating but I feel millwall are on the upturn and are rapidly improving they anilated leeds one nil last Saturday and should of won by more the price isn't brilliant at 13/5 but I'm sure they will continue to attack and score goals tomorrow

    Sunderland v CARDIFF Cardiff have been consistently high on my ratings each week .whereas sunderland have produced more minus figures than any team in the three lower divisions this season and again played poorly last Saturday
    Doubt and nerves will have now set in so at 6/4 I will bet Cardiff

    league two

    COVENTRY v exeter I've previously dismissed Coventry as been very average but there last two games have shown a marked improvement and on my ratings they produced the seasons highest last week I'm hoping they can't continue to improve . They play a top of the table exeter who i have rated as mid table . It seems like the layers agree with me as Coventry despite not been the form team are only 5/4 although this is dissapointing I feel as though I still have to back them

    MILLWALL 5points at 13/5
    CARDIFF 6points at 6/4
    COVENTRY 6points at 5/4
     
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  15. Keegans head

    Keegans head Filly

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    Results from 23rd September

    MILLWALL drew 0-0 loss 5 points
    CARDIFF won 2-1 prft 9 points
    COVENTRY won 2-0 prft 7.5 point

    Feel a lot better after these results . MILLWALL was disappointing as they didn't play there usual attacking game and went for a point

    B/f loss 3 points
    Today prft 11.5 pts
    C/f prft 8.5 pts
     
    jammy54, ArkRoyal, pete and 1 other person like this.

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