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Place A/E

Discussion in 'Spreadsheets' started by BH01, Nov 22, 2017.

  1. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    Please could someone give me a hand with excel formulas? I'm trying to determine the place only A/E of a group of horses. Finish position, odds and no.of runners all known, so if possible would like to have it accurately reflect what the common place terms would be, but if that would be too complicated I was thinking of 1/5 odds and 3 places.

    I tried to wrap my head around it but got stuck pretty quickly with my limited excel knowledge-anyone have any ideas?

    Thanks in advance
     
    ARAZI91 likes this.
  2. valiant thor

    valiant thor Yearling

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    You may know what you mean when you ask a for help , but the written word is interpreted differently by whoever is reading it .
    Therefore please elaborate in more than a couple of lines what you want or even better post a screenshot of the end result you need. (not the full lot just a few lines) and a brief desription of what you require from named cells.
    That way should get your problem sorted rather than getting no replies at all. :handgestures-thumbup:

    By 'common place terms' Do you mean

    A.. If 13 runners in cell X , cell Y displays 1/4 or .25 , If 9 runners in cell X , cell Y displays 1/5 or .25 etc (cells X & Y are just examples they could be any cells)
    B.. The expected place return % ie 12 runners, 4/1 odds , EW Odds 1/4 expected place return 50%
    C.. The expected chance of a place % ie X~odds to N~runners

    A & B are quite easily sorted (various ways of formulating the answer)
    C not so easy (well for me anyway) would involve some quite heavy math I would imagine

    Good luck finding your answer :handgestures-thumbup:
     
  3. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - Hi mate - did you get any further forward with this?
     
  4. runnerjp

    runnerjp Foal

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    Non-Handicap Races
    2 - 4 Runners: Win Only (1st place only)
    5 - 7 Runners: A 1/4 the odds over 2 places (1st and 2nd place)
    8 or more Runners: A 1/5th the odds over 3 places (1st, 2nd and 3rd place)

    Handicap Races
    2 - 4 Runners: Win Only (1st place only)
    5 - 7 Runners: A 1/4 the odds over 2 places (1st and 2nd place)
    8 - 11 Runners: A 1/5th the odds over 3 places (1st, 2nd and 3rd place)
    12 - 15 Runners: A 1/4 the odds over 3 places (1st, 2nd and 3rd place)
    16 or more Runners: A 1/4 the odds over 4 places (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place)

    Like that so you have a column with places (1 ,2 ,3 or 4) and what odds are reflected?
    Also can you split handicap / non handicap
     
    ARAZI91 likes this.
  5. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    @valiant thor @ARAZI91 @runnerjp thanks for the replies, sorry mad at work with it being Black Friday (I work in ecommerce) I'll try and post a proper explanation of what I'm trying to achieve tomorrow. Might be the case that it's not really achievable, it's just something I'm interested in as a metric for measuring performance.

    Cheers
     
    ARAZI91 likes this.
  6. ArkRoyal

    ArkRoyal Administrator

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    If you want to work out the A/E for placing, wouldn't you need the prices for place bets not e/w bets?
     
  7. valiant thor

    valiant thor Yearling

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    Looks to me like hes backing e/w and wants to find out if the place part is worth it,
    or better to just back win only, but doesnt know how to set it up in a spreadsheet.
    The origional post is a little vague
     
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  8. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    Will explain later; I was thinking of using it more as a means of checking historical data than forecasting
     
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  9. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - i think i know where your coming from - are the odds in the data BF Place odds? if not then are the SP odds fractional or decimal?
    I have a sheet that converts decimal / fractional odds in to % chance - probability for win and place and you can adjust the place terms.
    I suppose you could enter the odds data into that - Total the probability and divide by the actual number of placings to get the A/E
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2017
    BH01 likes this.
  10. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    @ARAZI91 yes they're BF win decimal odds-that sounds like it would work, I'd appreciate having a go with the sheet if that's alright?

    Thanks for the help
     
  11. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    How much data we talking here , as i could actually supply you with Betfair place odds if that would be better?
     
  12. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - here's the sheet anyway mate , maybe be too much hassle uploading a few years worth of data to dropbox etc .
    Dont know if it will be any use , you enter the odds and it spits out the win and place probability - totals it as well.
     

    Attached Files:

  13. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - just looking at that sheet again mate , it only calcualates place probability on the fractional sheet , not on the decimal one.
     
  14. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    @ARAZI91 thanks for that-no worries I'll just convert fractional to decimal. Will have a go with it over the weekend
     
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  15. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - best of luck mate , hope you get the desired output - the formula is in there anyway to calculate place probabilities , might need a little tinkering.
     
  16. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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    ARAZI91 likes this.
  17. BH01

    BH01 Yearling

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  18. ARAZI91

    ARAZI91 Yearling

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    @BH01 - Good stuff mate
     

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