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    AR

ratings to price

D

Daysleeper

Hi all. These ratings I`ve calculated using the HRB data. The ratings to price is taken from the an already proven mathematical model and whilst not perfect is pretty good. The subset that testing has shown so far most conssistent are races where all horses have at least 5 starts and all have raced last 90 days. Very hard to beat final closing prices as Betfair and the Bookies have it sewn down at the end, however the early prices on BOG do get returns that consistently beat the market. Also some close later and are real value. Its a long term advantage and no get rich every day. I`ll post these if anyones interested. cheers

Easy to show past successful examples but the best from today. Top rated Flying Fantasy big over that won. Early BOG odds locked in at 17 and closed at 5. Its rated price was $5.33

Flying Fantasy 304.7 $17 144.97 $5.33 18.76%
Himalayan Queen 303.3 $2.75 143.03 $5.40 18.51%
Caledonian Gold 296.1 $4.5 133.19 $5.80 17.24%
Intimately 286.5 $7 120.33 $6.42 15.57%
Gabrielle 279.7 $25 111.39 $6.94 14.42%
Ubla (IRE) 267.9 $5.5 96.22 $8.03 12.45%
The Firm (IRE) 203.8 $40 21.48 $35.97 2.78%

Fridays rtp

810 newm friday
Jordan Sport 504.1 $3.5 242.5 $2.23 44.80% bet
Major Pusey 440.3 $ 4.5 142.32 $3.80 26.29% bet
Reputation (IRE) 401 $ 7.5 88.41 $6.12 16.33% bet
Tatlisu (IRE) 365.7 5 45.05 $12.02 8.32%
Waqaas 344.2 6 20.98 $25.79 3.88%

615 hayd
High On Light 363.2 3 142.79 $5.34 18.73%
Murgan 356.5 $7.5 133.64 $5.70 17.53% bet
Aramist (IRE) 344.5 $8 117.61 $6.48 15.43% bet
Kashmiri Sunset 337.2 3.25 108.07 $7.05 14.18%
Takbeer (IRE) 323.1 6.5 90.13 $8.46 11.82%
Mawaqeet (USA) 309.9 $21 73.9 $10.32 9.69% bet
Torremar (FR) 308.9 $15 72.69 $10.49 9.54% bet
Bertie Moon 263.8 11 21.48 $35.50 2.82%

5 muss
Jonny Delta 321.2 $3 124.47 $2.76 36.20% bet
Golden Jeffrey (SWI) 307.2 $5.5 106.25 $3.24 30.90% bet
Tectonic (IRE) 268.7 5 59.2 $5.81 17.22%
In Focus (IRE) 243.1 3.5 30.37 $11.32 8.83%
Maple Stirrup (IRE) 234.9 $17 21.56 $15.95 6.27% bet

4 muss
Great Fighter 546.4 $ 5.5 233.54 $2.42 41.32% bet
Yorkidding 477.6 $6 128.07 $4.41 22.66% bet
Kensington Star 467.1 $5.5 113.55 $4.98 20.09% bet
Sebastians Wish (IRE) 408.9 3 40.61 $13.92 7.19%
Codeshare 396.1 11 26.29 $21.50 4.65%
Tawdeea 391.3 8.5 21.08 $26.81 3.73%

330 muss
Whatsthemessage (IRE) 388.3 $5 101.96 $4.62 21.63% bet
The Stalking Moon (IRE) 380.4 4 92.11 $5.12 19.54%
Alpine Dream (IRE) 376.8 $9 87.68 $5.38 18.60% bet
Alexandrakollontai (IRE) 360.4 5 67.97 $6.93 14.42%
Maureb (IRE) 334.1 9 37.96 $12.42 8.05%
Groupie 330.3 10 33.79 $13.95 7.17%
Sea Of Green 323.7 15 26.64 $17.69 5.65%
Forever A Lady (IRE) 318.6 20 21.21 $22.23 4.50%
 
ArkRoyal said:
Hi D Daysleeper and welcome to the forum.

Its a little difficult to work out what you have posted as the forum does not re-produce tables very well.

Have a look here How to Post a Table and here How to Post a Table to see how to post tables.
Click to expand...

Many thanks ArkRoyal. I`ll look at simplifying the layout. The figures explained below but not easy to read per se.

Flying Fantasy_ 304.7_ $17_ 144.97_ $5.33_ 18.76%
Horse_Rating_Early price available_Rating to Price algorithm_Rated Price_Win chance %
 
Daysleeper said:
Many thanks ArkRoyal. I`ll look at simplifying the layout. The figures explained below but not easy to read per se.
Click to expand...

Two more qualifying races

3 muss. might be easier to read. exchange has some slightly higher prices on a couple here
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_ 1+ = bet
Cabal_ $11.00_ $4.76_ 21.00%_ 2.31
Twiggy_ $12.00_ $6.52_ 15.34%_ 1.84
Cliff Bay (IRE)_ $8.50_ $7.46_ 13.40%_ 1.14
Let Right Be Done_$15.00_ $8.99_11.12%_ 1.67
Adventureman_$9.00_ $9.76_ 10.25%_ 0.92
Ralphy Boy (IRE)_ $6.50_ $10.35_ 9.66%_ 0.63
Relight My Fire_ $5.00_ $12.90_ 7.75%_ 0.39
Joyful Star_ $10.00_ $25.45_ 3.93%_ 0.39
Hellomoto_ $8.00_ $27.59_ 3.62%_ 0.29
Leopard (IRE)_ $29.00_ $27.86_ 3.59%_ 1.04

540 hayd

Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_ 1+ = bet_
Donnachies Girl (IRE)_ $3.00_ $3.85_ 25.96%_ 0.78
Omotesando_ $5.00_ $6.31_ 15.86%_ 0.79
Auxiliary_ $23.00_ $8.31_ 12.03%_ 2.77
Angelical (IRE)_ $15.00_ $9.03_ 11.07% 1.66
Hurricane Hollow_ $13.00_ $11.99_ 8.34%_ 1.08
Invictus (GER)_ $13.00_ $14.38_ 6.95%_ 0.90
Lady Natasha (IRE)_ $15.00_ $16.67_ 6.00%_ 0.90
Up Ten Down Two (IRE)_ $34.00_ $17.12_ 5.84%_ 1.99
Gold Merlion (IRE)_$8.00_ $26.26_ 3.81%_ 0.30
Almutamarred (USA)_ $12.00_ $26.39_ 3.79%_ 0.45
 
Amazing, logged in to see someone with the exact same idea i'm testing at the moment, slightly different i'm finding true price then adding 25% then asking for that price on betfair , but minimum of 10, had some amazing winners in the last 4 weeks, lots of bets but i'm currently 27% ROI just £1 stakes, nearly 1000 bets but only 3 losing days from 33, today looks like being the 4th, thinking of increasing stakes but only a small punter and £258 profit in just over a month will do me for now. Good Luck hopefully we are on the right track.
 
Outlander said:
Amazing, logged in to see someone with the exact same idea i'm testing at the moment, slightly different i'm finding true price then adding 25% then asking for that price on betfair , but minimum of 10, had some amazing winners in the last 4 weeks, lots of bets but i'm currently 27% ROI just £1 stakes, nearly 1000 bets but only 3 losing days from 33, today looks like being the 4th, thinking of increasing stakes but only a small punter and £258 profit in just over a month will do me for now. Good Luck hopefully we are on the right track.
Click to expand...

Hi Outlander.. Well done ! Having a win return greater than the win chance percentage is the only long term profit area. Even on negative days its reassuring only betting in a positive environment. All the best.
 
Sat
asco 105
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance % 1+ = value
Pipers Note $6.50 $5.95 16.82% 1.09
Mirza $6.00 $6.01 16.63% 1.00
Lexington Abbey $6.50 $6.27 15.96% 1.04
Stake Acclaim (IRE) $8.00 $9.70 10.31% 0.82
Sir Robert Cheval $13.00 $11.13 8.98% 1.17
Green Door (IRE) $7.00 $13.41 7.46% 0.52
Tropics (USA) $12.00 $13.44 7.44% 0.89
Willytheconqueror (IRE) $21.00 $13.56 7.37% 1.55
Blaine $34.00 $15.56 6.43% 2.19
Doc Sportello (IRE) $34.00 $42.08 2.38% 0.81

3 hay
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_value
Mustarrid (IRE) $5.50 $5.39 18.55% 1.02
Fingals Cave (IRE) $8.00 $6.85 14.60% 1.17
Two For Two (IRE) $9.00 $7.27 13.76% 1.24
Calder Prince (IRE) $7.00 $7.44 13.45% 0.94
Just Hiss $10.00 $9.13 10.95% 1.10
El Cap (USA) $3.75 $10.46 9.56% 0.36
Dark Devil (IRE) $19.00 $10.81 9.25% 1.76
Briyouni (FR) $12.00 $15.29 6.54% 0.78
Little Lady Katie (IRE) $17.00 $32.89 3.04% 0.52

405 hay
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_value
Fire Brigade $2.5 $2.43 41.19% 1.03
Sidewinder (IRE) $9 $5.42 18.45% 1.66
Mutawakked (IRE) $ 7 $8.59 11.64% 0.82
Glorious Forever $ 6 $11.97 8.35% 0.50
Pecheurs De Perles (IRE) $ 15 $13.27 7.53% 1.13
Sterling Silva (IRE) $13 $14.08 7.10% 0.92
Wigan Warrior $7 $19.13 5.23% 0.37

415 new
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_ value
War Glory (IRE) $6.00 $5.23 19.10% 1.15
Von Blucher (IRE) $6.50 $5.94 16.83% 1.09
Khamaary (IRE) $3.75 $6.37 15.71% 0.59
Easy Tiger $15.00 $9.25 10.81% 1.62
That Is The Spirit $10.00 $10.06 9.94% 0.99
The Warrior (IRE) $15.00 $11.43 8.75% 1.31
Suzis Connoisseur $15.00 $11.88 8.42% 1.26
Gulliver $7.50 $15.35 6.51% 0.49
Accession (IRE) $11.00 $27.88 3.59% 0.39

740 lin
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_ value
Glenamoy Lad $2.50 $4.77 20.94% 0.52
Whitecrest $7.00 $5.57 17.94% 1.26
Seamster $7.00 $5.64 17.73% 1.24
Dream Farr (IRE) $7.00 $5.89 16.98% 1.19
Qatari Riyals (IRE) $9.00 $7.39 13.53% 1.22
Consulting $9.00 $15.25 6.56% 0.59
Perfect Pastime $26.00 $22.99 4.35% 1.13
Posh Bounty $34.00 $55.63 1.80% 0.61

820 ayr
Horse_ early BOG_ rated price_ win chance %_ value
Dark Crystal $5.00 $5.49 18.23% 0.91
Lady In Question (IRE) $9.00 $5.50 18.17% 1.64
Chaplin Bay (IRE) $10.00 $6.68 14.98% 1.50
Chipping (IRE) $9.00 $8.43 11.87% 1.07
Royal Duchess $3.75 $10.06 9.94% 0.37
Justice Pleasing $21.00 $11.67 8.57% 1.80
Inglorious $10.00 $14.21 7.04% 0.70
Lotara $19.00 $19.74 5.07% 0.96
Flinty Fell (IRE) $9.00 $26.24 3.81% 0.34
Coral Princess (IRE) $15.00 $46.89 2.13% 0.32
 
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