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Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) + (AW Version) System Tests

Discussion in 'System Testing' started by Jack Dawkins, Apr 20, 2017.

  1. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Last year someone posted a system idea connected to trainers having a quick returning horse,(sorry, can't remember who) well I took note and followed that system on my HRB and I must tell you it was total rubbish, so a couple of months ago I dumped everything from that system apart from the title and just used breeding (as always), so relying on horse's not trainers, I was happily surprised with the results on the AW, so I've now done the same for the turf.
    If you've seen any of my threads you'll know I have three levels:
    Lucky: These are the systems that are in profit
    OK: these are just under performing (Losing)
    S##t: Headgear System (But I've noticed this system is very good for laying favorites)
    I don't know whether there will any qualifiers for AW again until that season officially begins, but I'll include them here and keep separate totals as I am doing with the Geldings thread.
    Qualifiers will be staked as always at 1pt Win, and will be (BOG) if possible.
     
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  2. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Friday 21st April CURRENT P/L: 0.00

    5.30 Bath 1 Wordiness 5/6 Readily Available (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (3rd)

    (I do wish I'd checked the price of this horse before I created the thread) planning has never been my strong point.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
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  3. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Sounds very interesting @Jack Dawkins.

    Just so I understand...quick returners selected based on previous returning performance of their sire progeny? And Dam as well?

    Cheers,
    Tom
     
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  4. GLYCERINE

    GLYCERINE Foal

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    Maybe look at trainers who turn them out a lot and see whether that is a pattern connected with profit or that owners like to see them run a lot or to disguise the serious days. I was talking to a trainer about AW and they told me about a gamble coming up, but said the horse will run off and on all season but is only serious a couple of time, irrespective of how quickly its turned out. Said he knew to the pound how it would run every time depending on what he had done with it after its last race. That horse appears to be inconsistent, but in fact runs exactly as they desire, its no star but returns a profit every year.
     
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  5. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    That's the general idea @tomwilson1986
     
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  6. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Hi, @GLYCERINE Welcome,

    Firstly, did you happen to read the thread heading as the first part of your post seems to describe the system I just dumped because it did not work, but you are welcome to start your own thread along those lines, and I wish you the best of luck.

    Secondly, does the trainer you mention also happen to know how all the other runners in the race are going to run? Now that would be interesting and worth knowing.

    Thanks again for your input.

    I really do appreciate good advice and all interactions on my thread will be replied as honestly as possible, some times with humour, sometimes sarcasm , but never with malice.

    Good Luck today to anybody that backs the same horses that I do.
     
  7. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -1.00 (After 1 Bet)
     
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  8. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Hmm, interesting thread

    I have been following a system following quick returners with very good results over a period of years, and the breakthrough with me was the realisation that while some trainers can get a run of winners , the odds available will make them less viable betting propositions.
    Bung that idea into HRB and see where it leads you.

    Unless of course you've like me, with a share in a horse that does bugger all for a while, then wins 4 on the trot (but that's a different story !!)
     
  9. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Thanks, @dave58 you are the second person today who has advised me how to run this system, and as before I appreciate the input, but the trainer angle does not interest me as I've tried it, glad you are having luck thought. :handgestures-thumbup:

    As for horse shares, tried it but did not like the lack of control, I've even considered buying one outright, but then I'd want to live at the stable and be hands on and I'm sure that would be frowned upon (not unlike most things I do).
     
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  10. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Saturday 22nd April

    Seven Days + Under (AW Version) CURRENT P/L: 0.00

    5.45 Wolverhampton 9 Louis Vee (IRE) 33/1 SB/WH/PP/BF (BOG) 1pt Win NOW A NR

    7.15 Wolverhampton 7 Spiritual Star (IRE) 11/8 BV/PP/BB (BOG) 1pt Win
    THIS HORSE HAS NOW DISAPPEARED OFF MY HRB ALERTS FOR THIS SYSTEM!!!
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
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  11. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Ok, now I'm confused, last night there were two qualifiers for the AW version on my alerts (which I posted on the thread at 1.17am,then earlier today I noticed that "Louis Vee" was a non runner and that "Spiritual Star" was no longer listed, I presumed was possibly also going to be a NR, I updated the thread at 3:29pm, tonight I see SS came 2nd beaten HD, but still NOT on my alerts, now this is bad enough, but I can also see times when this could happen in reverse, and horses appear later, which were not alerts earlier, I've already noticed it happen with a couple of my C+D systems. All these systems are static so are not reliant on weather. price fluctuation etc., so why is it happening?
     
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  12. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    If you only have days since last run and Sire / Dam as filters I can't see why that would happen.

    Do you have Ground as a filter?
     
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  13. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Hi, @tomwilson1986 no all my filters are static, so ground, price, weather, what tie Tommo is wearing, etc. will not affect it.
     
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  14. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Maybe it's the system gods cursing you for refusing to use trainer as a filter :headbang:
     
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  15. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    How many systems Gods are there? Do they swear a lot ?.........................................And what medication are you on?:crazy:
     
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  16. NigelRG

    NigelRG Dam

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    Normally that happens because of some variable ( often price) but without seeing your system we can only guess.:idk::idk:.

    Nige
     
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  17. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    As stated above @NigelRG the system uses static filters hence there are no variables that can affect selections.
     
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  18. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Wednesday 26th April

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -1.00 (After 1 Bet)

    2.55 Catterick 8 Miss Bates 16/1 Bet365 (BOG) 1pt Win NR
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
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  19. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    2.55 Catterick 8 Miss Bates declared NR 8.47am (Info HRB)
     
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  20. Spook

    Spook Colt

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    @Jack Dawkins Did you know you can do a saved systems qualifier check on races already run. It's under functionality, it'll tell you why horses are disappearing off your alerts.
     
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  21. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Hi, @Spook when one disappears I normally go into "Saved Systems" and click on "NOW" that tells you qualifiers for Today/Tomorrow, funnily I had same happen yesterday with a C+D System, "Wink Oliver" was qualifier in morning, by the afternoon had been removed, which is annoying when you are backing early price.
     
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  22. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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    Hi @Jack Dawkins , as @NigelRG says it's difficult to suggest solutions without knowing more, but maybe you could look at the horse in question and run it through your qualifying parameters manually ?
    I'm assuming that the information is readily available via the RP or similar.
    It could be something that seems a static filter but that could be altered via non runners for example (eg position in weight or comparative filters)
     
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  23. Spook

    Spook Colt

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    You can also do a qualifier check on the day, under functionality, qualifiers V4, it'll allow you to do a qualifier check. You'll know instantly why one fell out of the qualifiers.
     
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  24. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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  25. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Sunday 30th April

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -1.00 (After 1 Bet)

    3.45 Thirsk 5 Bismarck The Flyer (IRE) 5/1
    B365/BV/L (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (5th)

    5.45 Thirsk 9 Mister Moosah (IRE) 4/1 Readily Available (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (6th)
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2017
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  26. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -3.00 (After 3 Bet)
     
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  27. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Friday 5th May.

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -3.00 (After 3 Bet)

    2.50 Chepstow 5 Swendab (IRE) 15/2 BS/BV/PP (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (6th)
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2017
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  28. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -4.00 (After 4 Bet)
     
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  29. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Thursday 11th May

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -4.00 (After 4 Bet)

    5.15 Catterick 3 Silvanus (IRE) 11/4 B365/PP/L/BW (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (2nd)
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2017
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  30. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -5.00 (After 5 Bet)
     
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  31. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Friday 12th May

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -5.00 (After 5 Bet)

    5.05 Chester 10 Warp Factor (IRE) 7/1 WH (BOG) 1pt Win

    8.15 Ripon 2 Mysterial 8/1 B365/L/BW (BOG) 1pt Win
     
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  32. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Last edited: May 12, 2017
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  33. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -7.00 (After 7 Bets)
     
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  34. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Thursday May 18th

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -7.00 (After 7 Bets)

    2.20 York 1 Duke Of Firenze 7/1 WH/BF/BV/PP/TS/BF (BOG) 1pt Win WON :handgestures-thumbup:

    (BetDaq are 15/2 but no BOG so let it roll)
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
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  35. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: 0.00 (After 8 Bets)
     
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  36. tomwilson1986

    tomwilson1986 Filly

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    Great work Jack!
     
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  37. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Wednesday 24th May

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: 0.00 (After 8 Bets)

    3.20 Ayr 8 Cheeni 4/1 Generally (BOG) 1pt Win LOST (2nd)
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  38. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -1.00 (After 9 Bets)
     
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  39. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    Thursday 25th May

    Seven Days + Under (Flat Version) CURRENT P/L: -1.00 (After 9 Bets)

    5.25 Goodwood 4 Black Caesar (IRE) 9/2 WH/BV (BOG) 1pt Win
     
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  40. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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