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SIG's Speed Ratings

Discussion in 'Systems' started by SIG, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. Bradley Lawrence

    Bradley Lawrence Newbie

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    Cheers Sig , I'm fully aware that this system is in its raw format, so I'm not expecting anything. I will let you what happens:handgestures-thumbup:

    Small stakes today and if Lady Luck gives me the nod A good day:taunt:.

    Good luck
    Brad
     
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  2. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    I might be a grown up but I'm not sure if I've ever actually grown up! lol
     
  3. cosmicsports

    cosmicsports Filly

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    The speed ratings if correctly done, they predict many races.
    Reasons for which I might -sometimes- disregard them could be those:

    a) Jockey is really useless (probably not true in UK).
    b) Huge lay off, one year or more (but it also depends on workout reports).
    c) Totally unsuitable for the distance. E.g. 5f sprinter entered in 2 mile race. Thus Ialyssos in a 2 miler is crossed out by me. Presvis in a 5f race is also crossed out.
    d) Frequent non starter or returns with pathological problems most times.

    Those a-b-c-d situations are rather extreme.

    Also with horses raced only a few times it tends to be riskier. Some learn the game in 4th-5th attempt, having previously ran very badly.
     
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  4. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    @cosmicsports Interesting points you've raised. I will reply to you when I have a bit more time :handgestures-thumbup:

    Cheers,
    SIG
     
  5. cosmicsports

    cosmicsports Filly

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    Ialyssos made it from last to first with Buick in a 5f race, but in Gr they would n't dream of entering him for higher. Presvis or Zenyatta against good sprinters ? Also impossible I think.
     
    SIG likes this.
  6. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    Ayr
    3.15 - Winningtry @ 7/2 (TR) 1ST, King of Fashion @ 9/1 2ND
     
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  7. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    Ayr
    3.50 - Two Taffs @ 5/2 (TR) 1ST, Indian Temple @ 28/1 3RD
     
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  8. Bradley Lawrence

    Bradley Lawrence Newbie

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    Sig,

    Lady Luck wasn't with me today mate,
    Had Indian temple in a L15 with no other places or wins. Drop zone and sir Anthony brown just missed out.

    Early days for system but I'm certainly interested.:handgestures-thumbup:

    Cheers
    Brad
     
    SIG likes this.
  9. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    21st April

    TURF FLAT RACING RESULTS

    Newbury

    2.30 - Swashbuckle @ 4/1 (TR) 3RD
    2.30 - Star Rider @ 11/2 LOST
    3.05 - Templechurch @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    4.10 - Omran @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    4.10 - Graphite Storm @ 14/1 LOST
    4.40 - Double Up @ 2/1 (TR) LOST
    4.40 - Poyle Vinnie @ 11/1 LOST

    Bath
    5.30 - Wordiness @ 5/6 (TR) LOST
    5.30 - Akavit @ 12/1 2ND
    6.00 - Buying Trouble @ 16/1 (TR) LOST
    6.00 - Imtiyaaz @ 16/1 2ND
    6.30 - Attain @ 7/4 (TR) LOST
    6.30 - Captain George @ 9/2 LOST
    7.00 - Aples Midi @11/4 (TR) LOST
    7.30 - Desert Explorer 8/1 @(TR) LOST
    8.00 - Ashwaq @ 11/4 (TR) LOST
    8.00 - Mr Pocket @ 8/1 2ND


    JUMP RACING RESULTS

    Fontwell
    1.50 - Shimba Hills @ 4/1 2ND
    1.50 - Land League @ 4/1 (TR) LOST
    2.20 - Weststreet @ 5/2 (TR) LOST
    2.55 - Eaton Hill @ 9/4 (TR) NR
    2.55 - Pilansberg @ 2/5 1ST
    3.30 - Alcala @11/8 (TR) LOST
    3.30 - Opening Batsman @ 2/1 1ST
    4.00 - Dropzone @ 10/1 (TR) LOST
    4.30 - Lake Chapala @ 11/8 (TR) NR
    5.05 - Wine Woman Song @ 9/4 (TR) LOST
    5.05 - White Valiant @ 7/2 1ST

    Ayr
    2.10 - Sir Anthony Browne @12/1 (TR) LOST
    2.10 - Kelka @ 9/1 LOST
    2.40 - Lycidas @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    3.15 - Winningtry @ 7/2 (TR) 1ST
    3.15 - King of Fashion @ 9/1 2ND
    3.50 - Two Taffs @ 5/2 (TR) 1ST
    3.50 - Indian Temple @ 28/1 3RD
    4.20 - Avidity @ 10/1 (TR) LOST
    4.50 - Jessbers Dream @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    4.50 - Nordic Nymph @ 10/1 LOST
    5.25 - Jac the Legend @ 18/1 (TR) LOST
    5.25 - Towering @ 14/1 LOST

    Southwell
    4.45 - Cup Final @ 1/5 (TR) 1ST
    4.45 - Spoilt Rotten @ 11/2 2ND
    5.15 - Riddlestown @ 7/2 (TR) 1ST
    5.15 - Ever So Much @ 10/1 LOST
    5.45 - Chestnut Ben @ 7/4 (TR) 1ST
    6.15 - Hindon Rd @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    6.45 - Quill Art @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
    6.45 - Steel City@ 15/2 LOST
    7.15 - Miss Benefitz @ 33/1 (TR) LOST
    7.15 - Champion Chase @ 8/1 LOST
    7.45 - Colonial Dreams @ 1/1 (TR) LOST
    7.45 - Bridge of Cally @ 18/1 LOST

    Noted @Swordfish and apologies.... :hi:

    Cheers,
    SIG
     
  10. Jack Dawkins

    Jack Dawkins Gelding

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    5.30 Bath Wordiness was one of my qualifiers, unfortunately he did not win @SIG
     
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  11. SIG

    SIG Filly

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    I think I know why....

    SIG,Yesterday at 3:14 AM

    Too much tinkering with this program, not enough sleep!

    Cheers,
    SIG
     
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  12. cosmicsports

    cosmicsports Filly

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    Not all races can be won with speed ratings.
    Some do.
    I have in my Greek program here Sky Ship. He could lose if the lights went out.
    Also Sheila's Treat
    But we 're down to 300 horses, one meeting per week down from three.
    We used to have 2000 horses.
    In UK 20,000 I 'm told.
    When there are many horses to choose from they try to match them as close as possible.
    A speed distribution always exists but if they are close then it's difficult to find the winner.
    In some cases you can - and you can lose only through bad luck.
    But you have to create a sound model. In the case of Sky Ship I project a time of 1.55.09 for the 9 furlongs. The nearest rival is at 1.56.11 (Wren Castle). That's 6 lengths and it's very difficult to beat him.

    Let me go to another one from the same book.
    The jolly is the mare Whispering Star (I believe also raced in UK, like the previous ones).
    I make her 1.14.57 for the 6 furlongs. The nearest rival is at 1.15.66.
    Whispering Stat cannot lose. It's an impossibility. The press backs.
    But I cross her off with a Stabile pen.
    Because she ran a stinker after a one year's lay off and yesterday was her second attempt. She can't come back, it's an exception to the rule if she comes back.
    Whispering Star finished a distant fifth.

    From the 7 races, 2 best speeds won. 4 lost. Sheila's Treat was level pegging but the strong pace was good for him.
    Here is another speed table I found from another source, for the same races. That one does n't do kilometric conversions. Only compares same distances. 0 out of 7.
     

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