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SIG's Speed Ratings

#43
The speed ratings if correctly done, they predict many races.
Reasons for which I might -sometimes- disregard them could be those:

a) Jockey is really useless (probably not true in UK).
b) Huge lay off, one year or more (but it also depends on workout reports).
c) Totally unsuitable for the distance. E.g. 5f sprinter entered in 2 mile race. Thus Ialyssos in a 2 miler is crossed out by me. Presvis in a 5f race is also crossed out.
d) Frequent non starter or returns with pathological problems most times.

Those a-b-c-d situations are rather extreme.

Also with horses raced only a few times it tends to be riskier. Some learn the game in 4th-5th attempt, having previously ran very badly.
 
#44
The speed ratings if correctly done, they predict many races.
Reasons for which I might -sometimes- disregard them could be those:

a) Jockey is really useless (probably not true in UK).
b) Huge lay off, one year or more (but it also depends on workout reports).
c) Totally unsuitable for the distance. E.g. 5f sprinter entered in 2 mile race. Thus Ialyssos in a 2 miler is crossed out by me. Presvis in a 5f race is also crossed out.
d) Frequent non starter or returns with pathological problems most times.

Those a-b-c-d situations are rather extreme.

Also with horses raced only a few times it tends to be riskier. Some learn the game in 4th-5th attempt, having previously ran very badly.
@cosmicsports Interesting points you've raised. I will reply to you when I have a bit more time :handgestures-thumbup:

Cheers,
SIG
 
#48
Sig,

Lady Luck wasn't with me today mate,
Had Indian temple in a L15 with no other places or wins. Drop zone and sir Anthony brown just missed out.

Early days for system but I'm certainly interested.:handgestures-thumbup:

Cheers
Brad
 
#49
21st April

TURF FLAT RACING RESULTS

Newbury

2.30 - Swashbuckle @ 4/1 (TR) 3RD
2.30 - Star Rider @ 11/2 LOST
3.05 - Templechurch @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
4.10 - Omran @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
4.10 - Graphite Storm @ 14/1 LOST
4.40 - Double Up @ 2/1 (TR) LOST
4.40 - Poyle Vinnie @ 11/1 LOST

Bath
5.30 - Wordiness @ 5/6 (TR) LOST
5.30 - Akavit @ 12/1 2ND
6.00 - Buying Trouble @ 16/1 (TR) LOST
6.00 - Imtiyaaz @ 16/1 2ND
6.30 - Attain @ 7/4 (TR) LOST
6.30 - Captain George @ 9/2 LOST
7.00 - Aples Midi @11/4 (TR) LOST
7.30 - Desert Explorer 8/1 @(TR) LOST
8.00 - Ashwaq @ 11/4 (TR) LOST
8.00 - Mr Pocket @ 8/1 2ND


JUMP RACING RESULTS

Fontwell
1.50 - Shimba Hills @ 4/1 2ND
1.50 - Land League @ 4/1 (TR) LOST
2.20 - Weststreet @ 5/2 (TR) LOST
2.55 - Eaton Hill @ 9/4 (TR) NR
2.55 - Pilansberg @ 2/5 1ST
3.30 - Alcala @11/8 (TR) LOST
3.30 - Opening Batsman @ 2/1 1ST
4.00 - Dropzone @ 10/1 (TR) LOST
4.30 - Lake Chapala @ 11/8 (TR) NR
5.05 - Wine Woman Song @ 9/4 (TR) LOST
5.05 - White Valiant @ 7/2 1ST

Ayr
2.10 - Sir Anthony Browne @12/1 (TR) LOST
2.10 - Kelka @ 9/1 LOST
2.40 - Lycidas @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
3.15 - Winningtry @ 7/2 (TR) 1ST
3.15 - King of Fashion @ 9/1 2ND
3.50 - Two Taffs @ 5/2 (TR) 1ST
3.50 - Indian Temple @ 28/1 3RD
4.20 - Avidity @ 10/1 (TR) LOST
4.50 - Jessbers Dream @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
4.50 - Nordic Nymph @ 10/1 LOST
5.25 - Jac the Legend @ 18/1 (TR) LOST
5.25 - Towering @ 14/1 LOST

Southwell
4.45 - Cup Final @ 1/5 (TR) 1ST
4.45 - Spoilt Rotten @ 11/2 2ND
5.15 - Riddlestown @ 7/2 (TR) 1ST
5.15 - Ever So Much @ 10/1 LOST
5.45 - Chestnut Ben @ 7/4 (TR) 1ST
6.15 - Hindon Rd @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
6.45 - Quill Art @ 6/1 (TR) LOST
6.45 - Steel City@ 15/2 LOST
7.15 - Miss Benefitz @ 33/1 (TR) LOST
7.15 - Champion Chase @ 8/1 LOST
7.45 - Colonial Dreams @ 1/1 (TR) LOST
7.45 - Bridge of Cally @ 18/1 LOST

@SIG ..I know it's you who started the thread, but can you please post the results and the end of racing, members who follow you may get emails every time there's a post.
Cheers :hi:
Noted @Swordfish and apologies.... :hi:

Cheers,
SIG
 
#52
Not all races can be won with speed ratings.
Some do.
I have in my Greek program here Sky Ship. He could lose if the lights went out.
Also Sheila's Treat
But we 're down to 300 horses, one meeting per week down from three.
We used to have 2000 horses.
In UK 20,000 I 'm told.
When there are many horses to choose from they try to match them as close as possible.
A speed distribution always exists but if they are close then it's difficult to find the winner.
In some cases you can - and you can lose only through bad luck.
But you have to create a sound model. In the case of Sky Ship I project a time of 1.55.09 for the 9 furlongs. The nearest rival is at 1.56.11 (Wren Castle). That's 6 lengths and it's very difficult to beat him.

Let me go to another one from the same book.
The jolly is the mare Whispering Star (I believe also raced in UK, like the previous ones).
I make her 1.14.57 for the 6 furlongs. The nearest rival is at 1.15.66.
Whispering Stat cannot lose. It's an impossibility. The press backs.
But I cross her off with a Stabile pen.
Because she ran a stinker after a one year's lay off and yesterday was her second attempt. She can't come back, it's an exception to the rule if she comes back.
Whispering Star finished a distant fifth.

From the 7 races, 2 best speeds won. 4 lost. Sheila's Treat was level pegging but the strong pace was good for him.
Here is another speed table I found from another source, for the same races. That one does n't do kilometric conversions. Only compares same distances. 0 out of 7.