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VDW Systematic Betting

Discussion in 'VDW' started by Bobajobber, Dec 30, 2012.

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  1. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Looks fine to me. Pushed up in class and distance then dropped, only carrying 5 lbs more physical weight.

    LTO
    BRIERY BELLE was suited by the longer trip, probably even more so than she was able to show on the day, a thorough stayer that wants riding like one, hold-up tactics counterproductive this day, though it was a good run on form; dropped out, headway after 4 out, outpaced before 3 out, stayed on

    Although the win on Thursday was a lower prize Money, the Ability Ratings were higher than Doncaster and could well go in again if found the right race

    Screen Shot 2016-04-17 at 18.42.26.png
     
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  2. Hippomoomoo

    Hippomoomoo Yearling

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    Thanks Chesham

    As always very grateful for your input

    Hippo
     
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  3. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    After a few days at Aintree and a week in the sun, the batteries are recharged, I think Valseuer Lido and Sprinter Sacre should both do the business today.

    I don't like to aftertime but just a comment on that race that was mentioned at taunton the other day, in which Antarctica De Thaix was put up as a selection. I can understand how it could be construed as a bet, and indeed I would have backed this type in the past.

    If one looks at the form of the winner, one will notice that it beat a 6/5 fav, on only its second run over hurdles, who was himself a previous winner, and was getting 11lb off the fav. at Taunton, when you look at the form in depth of Rejaah then the alarm bells were ringing, and especially at the price. As I said I can understand how many would back it,but there must be zero doubt,when backing 4/11 shots.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2016
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  4. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I don't like to after time but just a comment on the Sandown 2.55
    VL had the ground against him, probably the difference between finishing 2nd instead of 1st. Mullins was concerned that he may need a longer trip, but was hoping the Stiff Sandown 2m 6f would compensate.

    Like you say there must be zero doubt when backing odds on Fav

    Screen Shot 2016-04-23 at 15.04.27.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2016
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  5. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Chesham Class Ratings (Published on the Inner Sanctum)

    Screen Shot 2016-04-23 at 15.17.57.png
     
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  6. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Well done with SS :handgestures-thumbup:
     
  7. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    Thank you Chesham for your prompt reply, just to clarify I said there must be zero doubt when backing 4/11 shots.

    The point of my post was to show that some seemingly good things are vulnerable to less exposed improving types, but fortunately VDW gave us the tools to spot them with ie odds, and the betting forecasts etc.

    I trust you had a profitable weekend.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  8. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Thanks @Thomas

    I will leave the Thread in your hands to take it forward some more and wish you well with it:handgestures-thumbup:
     
  9. arkle55

    arkle55 Dam

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    @Chesham, with the 29 previous post in just over a year, @Thomas is about as fast @Boyodavs. Reminds me of a pair of Geldings who will not win a race, they just plod.

    Arkle
     
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  10. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    I am trusting @Thomas with the Thread to teach others how to fish for themselves when it comes to VDW Methodolgy. I have done my bit
     
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  11. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    Chesham, I am sorry to see that you have decided to post only in the IS, but that is your perogative, and I wish you well, but hope you reconsider. First and foremost Chesham and I know we got off to a bad start but I would like to acknowledge your contributions to this forum,and indeed you have been very very open with your sharing of information,and from what I have seen you are the main player here.

    For my part, I derive my living from betting and not unlike boyodays I also have a farm,which takes up a lot of my spare time along with a young family,added to that I have to attend race meetings frequently to try and get on. As everyone knows mistakes can kill you in this game and trying to get on is an issue,with betfair and their imo unfair pc. I am often under pressure to manage my time to its optimum, and indeed only look in from time to time,as I find it relaxing,and enjoying.I had absolutely no intention of rubbing anyone up the wrong way.

    My contributions therefore will be sporadic,but as i said i enjoy reading when i can the posts on this forum.I have put up some winners and some losers but that is the way it is. I hope I can contribute positively in the future,but as VDW said know one knows it all. Lee as I mentioned previously did help me along and I will forever be grateful for his help.

    Happy punting to one and all today,as an aside I have on good authority that Air Force Blue is considered a certainty by those at ballydoyle, he has blossomed through the winter and has trained on, I won't back him,but that is what I have been told.
     
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  12. mickeddy

    mickeddy Filly

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    Having just watched the first two races on channel 4 I have to say that with James Fanshawe having 2 entered in the 2-00 Newmarket and the outsider of the two winning the race I didn't expect to see a repeat performance by David Simcock in the 2-15 Goodwood. Talk about watch what the trainer does.
     
  13. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    I wasn't sure where to post,but as I have posted selections here before, I can keep them together.

    Newbury Hungerford Stakes

    Home of the Brave

    Everything lines up for Home of the Brave.
     
  14. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    On a day where there were a number of VDW bets I put up one that is turned over lol. Once again we are reminded of the importance of CLASS, the only possible danger to the selection (although I couldn't back it) foils the good thing.

    The 6.35 race at Lingfield had an almost identical profile.
     
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  15. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    Saturday sees the Tingle Creek and after an in depth look at the race I have erred on the side of caution and had a good lay of Douvan.
     
  16. Thomas

    Thomas Yearling

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    :hi:Thats the way to do it, Douvan pulled out:cool:
     
  17. Chesham

    Chesham Sire

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    Chepstow 2.45 Binge Drinker
     
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  18. formtheory

    formtheory Mare

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    Hi @Chesham!

    I quite like BOB FORD in there!

    Good luck mate
     
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