VDW Systematic Betting
- Thread starter Bobajobber
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Hippomoomoo
Filly
Chesham
Sire
Some people have all the luck
He used to go to the Race Meetings with me before he started School and then in the School Holidays, so good that he landed a Job that has perks like that.
Hippomoomoo
Filly
A proper upbringing 
Chesham
Sire
Yep, his first GN Winning Bet that he chose himself was GrittarA proper upbringing
Hippomoomoo
Filly
Chesham
If i may ask, what do you make of Palace Moon in 845 Kemp -- clearly in its prime a cut well above most in todays race but clearly in long decline and perhaps fortunate last time out. IF LTO had been its first/2nd in a 0-65 I usually think a win might be signs of a level now being found but with PM Im not so sure. I was wondering how you assess these types of horses?
Many thanks and Regards
Hippo
If i may ask, what do you make of Palace Moon in 845 Kemp -- clearly in its prime a cut well above most in todays race but clearly in long decline and perhaps fortunate last time out. IF LTO had been its first/2nd in a 0-65 I usually think a win might be signs of a level now being found but with PM Im not so sure. I was wondering how you assess these types of horses?
Many thanks and Regards
Hippo
Hippomoomoo
Filly
Ever so slightly before my time -- Dessies 1986 King George was my first bet --- advising my great uncle (Who got me interested in horse race investing --as he liked to put it) to back the grey one!!
Hippo
Chesham
Sire
PM has a Dodgy Price Disparity
Hippomoomoo
Filly
Im assuming you mean that the weight of money and implied odds are significantly out of sync?
Hippo
Hippo
Chesham
Sire
Yep 2.65 at 12MD
Hippomoomoo
Filly
Thanks@Chesham
Chesham
Sire
VDW Quote: Racing probably involves more controversy than politics and religion put together, indeed without differences of opinion the betting side, which is of prime
interest to Raceform readers, could not exist. The situation has to obtain in order that a market can be formed, but the irony is that the principle ingredient for
successful punting narrows the field of play
We may all want to get to the same destination, but there is no obligation to board the same transport or go via the same route, what matters is that you arrive. whatever decision you make it is advisable to read the small print on the ticket before setting out because odds are that it will contain things which are not at first apparent. I know the majority who decided to try my way neglected to do this and it has brought them a great deal of needless frustration.
Providing you READ WHAT WAS THERE . The last was in capitals because it was all there although a vital factor, call it the missing link if you like was not deliberately
pointed out. It is there for you to see and it was not covered up, but until you approach the problem in the right way the odds are it will remain obsscure. once you find it
everything will be so clear that you will wonder how on earth you could miss it.
ces of opinion the betting side, which is of prime interest to Raceform readers, could not exist. The situation has to btain in order that a market can be formed,but the irony is that the principle ingredient for successful punting narrows the field of play.
I started with the Wing and A Pray, Cool Gin, Righthan Man, Beau Ranger, Stray Shot and Zamandra example because they were also top on ability and came before the Roushayd example.
Righthand Man LTO won Fav, the horse who came 2nd Why Forget LTO was dropping in class against Righthand Man Won and was Favourite in that race
Beau Ranger LTO Won the horse who came second Classified LTO had won and was 6/4 Favourite in that race
Wing And A Prayer LTO won the horse who came 2nd Free Flow was dropping in class against Wing And A Payer and hadbeenFavourite in that race.
Cool Gin LTO won LTO the horse who came 2nd Hello Killeny was Dropping in Class against Cool Gin and had been Favourite in his LTO race
Stray Shot 2nd LTO the horse who won Warner For Leisure was Favourite in his LTO race
Zamadra won LTO and was Favourite the horse who came 2nd Antiguan Moon had been in the same race has Zamandra in his LTO race in which Zamandra came 2nd to Jockamel who was dropping in class and was Favourite
Next I looked at some of the other examples from Roushayd booklet.
Roushayd beaten by Billet. In his LTO race Billet won and was Favourite in that race.
Zilzal won LTO the horse who came 2nd Green Line Express won LTO was 3/1 2nd fav and had beaten the odds on Favourite.
The horse who came 3rd to Zilzal Markofdistinctio had won LTO and was odds on favourite.
Braashee won LTO the horse who came 3rd to Braashee & Cossack Gaurd was Shoot ahead who had won LTO and was Favourite
Pipstead won LTTO the horse who came 3rd Kribensis had won LTO 2nd fav and had the fav in 2nd place
Three Tails was dropping in class and LTO had finished 3rd to Unite who LTO had won and had the fav behind in 2nd
Finally, Wayward Lad
Wayward Lad was 2nd LTO gave 8lbs and was beaten by Earls Brig (The odds on fav )was 3rd)who last time out had finished 3rd behind Wayward Lad gave 4lbs who was a Favourite
interest to Raceform readers, could not exist. The situation has to obtain in order that a market can be formed, but the irony is that the principle ingredient for
successful punting narrows the field of play
We may all want to get to the same destination, but there is no obligation to board the same transport or go via the same route, what matters is that you arrive. whatever decision you make it is advisable to read the small print on the ticket before setting out because odds are that it will contain things which are not at first apparent. I know the majority who decided to try my way neglected to do this and it has brought them a great deal of needless frustration.
Providing you READ WHAT WAS THERE . The last was in capitals because it was all there although a vital factor, call it the missing link if you like was not deliberately
pointed out. It is there for you to see and it was not covered up, but until you approach the problem in the right way the odds are it will remain obsscure. once you find it
everything will be so clear that you will wonder how on earth you could miss it.
ces of opinion the betting side, which is of prime interest to Raceform readers, could not exist. The situation has to btain in order that a market can be formed,but the irony is that the principle ingredient for successful punting narrows the field of play.
I started with the Wing and A Pray, Cool Gin, Righthan Man, Beau Ranger, Stray Shot and Zamandra example because they were also top on ability and came before the Roushayd example.
Righthand Man LTO won Fav, the horse who came 2nd Why Forget LTO was dropping in class against Righthand Man Won and was Favourite in that race
Beau Ranger LTO Won the horse who came second Classified LTO had won and was 6/4 Favourite in that race
Wing And A Prayer LTO won the horse who came 2nd Free Flow was dropping in class against Wing And A Payer and hadbeenFavourite in that race.
Cool Gin LTO won LTO the horse who came 2nd Hello Killeny was Dropping in Class against Cool Gin and had been Favourite in his LTO race
Stray Shot 2nd LTO the horse who won Warner For Leisure was Favourite in his LTO race
Zamadra won LTO and was Favourite the horse who came 2nd Antiguan Moon had been in the same race has Zamandra in his LTO race in which Zamandra came 2nd to Jockamel who was dropping in class and was Favourite
Next I looked at some of the other examples from Roushayd booklet.
Roushayd beaten by Billet. In his LTO race Billet won and was Favourite in that race.
Zilzal won LTO the horse who came 2nd Green Line Express won LTO was 3/1 2nd fav and had beaten the odds on Favourite.
The horse who came 3rd to Zilzal Markofdistinctio had won LTO and was odds on favourite.
Braashee won LTO the horse who came 3rd to Braashee & Cossack Gaurd was Shoot ahead who had won LTO and was Favourite
Pipstead won LTTO the horse who came 3rd Kribensis had won LTO 2nd fav and had the fav in 2nd place
Three Tails was dropping in class and LTO had finished 3rd to Unite who LTO had won and had the fav behind in 2nd
Finally, Wayward Lad
Wayward Lad was 2nd LTO gave 8lbs and was beaten by Earls Brig (The odds on fav )was 3rd)who last time out had finished 3rd behind Wayward Lad gave 4lbs who was a Favourite
Hippomoomoo
Filly
Chesham
Sire
Lee worked from Lists
Unlike those who run away from the Forum when asked to explain Cryptic Clues. I am not afraid to spell it out. Check my posts have I not explained everything. Now go back over the posts and compare my explanations with contributions from the person who says he has been forced to leave, what has he explained apart from Cryptic Babble. No wonder VDW gets a bad press.
Ok, time to explain another Lee Example
Lee stated that all he usually needed was the last three runs. We know that and he kept the Ability Ratings of the those Competing
First Run Wins
Whacked up in Class and note the Winner was also Favourite and Higher Ability than CG
Dropped in Class and this time fav and Top on Ability
Then Picks up another, again Top on Ability, Fav and carries less physical weight and the strength of opposition still not able to threaten
Unlike those who run away from the Forum when asked to explain Cryptic Clues. I am not afraid to spell it out. Check my posts have I not explained everything. Now go back over the posts and compare my explanations with contributions from the person who says he has been forced to leave, what has he explained apart from Cryptic Babble. No wonder VDW gets a bad press.
Ok, time to explain another Lee Example
Lee stated that all he usually needed was the last three runs. We know that and he kept the Ability Ratings of the those Competing
First Run Wins
Whacked up in Class and note the Winner was also Favourite and Higher Ability than CG
Dropped in Class and this time fav and Top on Ability
Then Picks up another, again Top on Ability, Fav and carries less physical weight and the strength of opposition still not able to threaten
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Hippomoomoo
Filly
While not wanting to involve myself in the almost standard VDW forum slanging match -- i have always wondered why there is a want to hold up an air of impenetrable mystique surrounding it -- either people want to enter a discussion or they don't -- and if they do then surely should do so openly and in clear unambiguous language rather than engage in playground games of "guess what i mean". I understand people do not wish to give away their "key" to understanding VDW but if advice or thoughts are offered surely those can be expressed clearly?!
Hippo
Hippo
Chesham
Sire
I think it was a Horse Called Door Latch winning the race that BHL was competing in
Chesham
Sire
Lee is showing a consistency with regards the Form, the expected horse Wins i.e. Fleet Street wins, is fav and was entitled to win on previous Form,
FS =Notwithstanding the presence of the Molecomb Stakes winner, who had an obvious chance on form and duly collected,
CG in this Race he did fare best of those who forced the pace, out on his feet inside the last furlong.
RE why there is a want to hold up an air of impenetrable mystique surrounding it -- either people want to enter a discussion or they don't
The problem is when you challenge like I have, they have a Hissy Fit and say that you have forced them to leave. What a load of tosh.
I noticed awhile back that he had altered his on line status so you can't see if they are looking in LOL what is all that about?????
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