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The Daily "Shorty"

MartinK

Gelding
We all know that backing short-priced favourites is the fast route to the poor house, because "shorties" are not often value. I'll attempt to pick a daily "shorty" (somewhere around evens) that I think is value, and see what profit (if any) I can make by the end of this month. If I make fair progress, I'll probably continue. Some days there'll be no qualifiers, so I'll post "Nothing today". I'll calculate to £50 level stakes at BOG, and will post around 11am, 7 days.

Even if I do well, bear in mind that this is probably the best time of the whole year (Aug/Sept) for "stability" (settled flat form, decent and predictable going). If this works now, the real test will be from around November through a horrible winter.

As you'll gather, this is all totally experimental, so I don't suggest anyone follow this with real money. See you in the morning (15th) ;)
 
Good luck-I think anything up until you get to the very long odds can be value to be fair; certainly the favourite-longshot bias means that at worst your bank will decrease a lot slower than someone backing 100/1 shots ;)
 
Good luck-I think anything up until you get to the very long odds can be value to be fair; certainly the favourite-longshot bias means that at worst your bank will decrease a lot slower than someone backing 100/1 shots ;)
To me, finding value in any race is a question of working out the "true" odds of each runner and comparing with the live market.

The problem, of course, is correctly working out "true" value! I'm sure this can be done with any range of odds, but high prices are always going to produce the longest losing runs, which most people - including me - hate. That's why, for my own day-to-day betting, I look at second or third faves.

Trying to identify value first-faves is new to me!
 
Hi MartinK MartinK as you have CQ as Value at 1/1 I presume that you have priced up this one at Odds On


Tissue Price as I see it


COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN 5/2
CERAMIST 4/1
DARK LIBERTY 9/2
PERFECT CLARITY 6/1

80%

Leaving 20% for S--t Happens

Better to Price Up races with
more exposed Form. nigel90 nigel90 and markfinn markfinn and myself often price up Kempton 4 Y-O Plus Handicaps

Most Races are 4 contender or 3 contender races at that Track and age group. It is often a positive when we have
consensus in the odds lines

 
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Hi Chesham, I priced Cosmo Q at 10-11, but I'm expecting SP to be 5-4.
Interesting that you see it as 5-2 -- we're obviously not using the same approach!
 
Hi Chesham, I priced Cosmo Q at 10-11, but I'm expecting SP to be 5-4.
Interesting that you see it as 5-2 -- we're obviously not using the same approach!

What odds do you have the others on. CQ was beaten off a nursery off BHA 78 and looks like they are taking a chance that she will have enough experience to see off the Debutants that are running today, as he is on a stiff mark for Nurseries.

Really a question of if you think the Debutants will be better than a 78 BHA
 
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Lost again.
_______________________

Due to massive pressure on time, I'll post the selection the night before racing -- somewhere between 11.45 and 1.30.

So for Thursday:
Yar 5.30 Hope s High, 7-4
 
What odds do you have the others on. CQ was beaten off a nursery off BHA 78 and looks like they are taking a chance that she will have enough experience to see off the Debutants that are running today, as he is on a stiff mark for Nurseries.

Really a question of if you think the Debutants will be better than a 78 BHA
Good points. From now on, I've decided to concentrate on handicaps only.
 
RESULTS SINCE STARTING, assuming £50 win bets ...

Tue: £50 loss
Wed: £50 loss
Thur: £87.50 profit (won EP 7-4)

BALANCE: £12.50 loss

____________________________

FRI: Paradise Cove, 13-8
 
Interesting post but I don't know and don't agree with the original premise. Its wrong. Value exists anywhere and since there are lots of favourites there are lots of chances to find value. Unless by 'short' you mean too short, in which case they would not be value and hence would be a no bet. The most difficult thing, and the key to find angles in my view it to try and be precise both in language and thought. You start by retreading a cliche as if it were a truth and then proceed from there. This isn't meant to be a negative post, since I have been guilty of the same errors in the past. I am totally unable to come up with much that is original, but I do know a cliche when I see one. And recycling a truism that isn't true isn't the best way to be profitable.
 
Value exists anywhere and since there are lots of favourites there are lots of chances to find value.
There may be lots of chances, but I doubt whether there are lots of favourites which are value in the final analysis. There are some, of course.

I wrote: "We all know that backing short-priced favourites is the fast route to the poor house, because "shorties" are not often value."
Perhaps I should have written: "We all know that backing short-priced favourites BLIND is the fast route to the poor house." Sorry I wasn't more precise in my language.

Please bear in mind that I said: "I'll attempt to pick a daily "shorty" (somewhere around evens) that I think is value ..."

... try and be precise both in language and thought.
H e y . . . lighten up, good buddy
 
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