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Tips based on OR

The two above selections came nowhere.

This process dismisses something that cannot be considered under the core guidelines that I have set and that's those who are having their first handicap run.

For instance, Adamant and Kaeso were two such winners today. Adamant, given an opening mark of 81, held joint highest OR in the race after Plant Pot Power was withdrawn. Kaeso, on the other hand, ran wearing #8 but was forecasted at 33/1 and opened at 10/1. Both factors I would consider an advantage - although admitedly, I failed to look at them today.

The forecast/opening price shortcut was something that I did request to Chris at HRB and it can be found here: Shortcuts - Immediate Horse Racing Data

It's surprising how many win, and although I have the page bookmarked I don't use it as much as I should :headbang:
 
235 Professor -20
250 Poets Society
315 Butney Island -15
345 Highland Colori
420 Solo Hunter
450 Eternal -10
455 Stockhill Diva -25
555 Major Cornwallis -10
 
Just completed some past winner analysis. There have been 14 so far and 6 have had at least a 100 day absence from LTO run. Only one flat/AW winner has won below a 0 - 70 handicap bracket.

What does this suggest to me? A horses mark which drops because it hasn't ran for a while seems almost beneficial and races below 0 - 70 can be won by almost any beast! Coincidentally, there have been four 0 - 70 handicap races that have been won by runners listed in this thread.
 
So Lastmanlastround was the the winner but with a 242 day absence, in a 0 - 75 handicap, it confirms my hypothesis in the previous post. Not only that, but the 4:10, 5:10, 8:00 and 8:40 were all of a standard below 0 - 70.

Weds
225 Teak, Callaghan (65)
335 General McArthur* (95)
435 Aguerooo -15, Johnny Cavagin (80)
445 Sakhalin Star (55)
455 Forceful Appeal -15, Bunbury -10, Balmoral Castle (85)
515 Kafeel (55)
535 Farleigh Mac* (75)
545 Bond Bombshell (70)
550 Oceanus (60)
605 Dragon Khan (55)
720 Flying Fantasy (65)
750 Malaysian Boleh, Lunar Deity, The Happy Hammer, Deeds Not Words, Cornelious (60)
820 Until Midnight -20 (75)

OK, a couple of new additions: race handicap bracket now included, I'm not including handicap reduction in races lower than a 70 as those races have only provided one winner so far. Selections with an asterix mean that previous handicap data is not available.

Good luck
 
Forceful Appeal wins at 9/1. Under 0 - 70 continues to prove poor.

320 Shrubland -25 (100)
430 Fieldsman - 10 (85)
500 Ritas Man (60)
440 Sandras Secret -20 (75)
450 Bertie Lugg (100)
810 Alsvinder (80)
 
Three winners in the space of 25 minutes, as Sandras Secret, Bertie Lugg and Ritas Man do the business and in doing so make me re-evaluate my recent musings and reinforce how valuable patience is in this game - the three winners were top rated on a certain offering by Chesham Chesham .

300 Thomas Cranmer -10 (80)
330 Green Light (85)
420 Filatore (65)
430 Short Work -10 (75)
435 Vale Of Flight (60)
450 L Frank Baum (65)
455 Get Home Now -15 (100)
525 Lord Ben -30 (110)
625 Jay Are -15 (115)
 
Thomas Cranmer won from the above. I'm off to Newmarket for the weekend, so normal service will resume on Monday.
 
210 Boots And Spurs (75)
220 Sisania -10 (100)
350 Artic Lady -10 (100)
410 Smiley Riley (60)
420 Defining Year - 10 (100)
440 Vercingetorix (70)
500 Testa Rossa (75)
510 Llewellyn/Excellent World (55)
620 Three C's (70)
820 Cape Discovery (80)

New amendment coming into play today - LTO Irish runners do not count due to handicapping issues, eg Beast (620)
 
Testa Rossa and Llewellyn win.

Tues
220 Prussian Eagle -25 (110)
350 Oscarteea -10/One Term (125)
400 Burrishoole Abbey -20 (75)
420 Earthmoves -15 (120)
500 Gone With The Wind -15 (60)
715 Purple n Gold (130)

I'm hoping to spend a bit more time and develop this into a more structured process in the coming days over on the Inner Sanctum, so if you're a lurker looking in, get posting and you might receive an invite ;)
 
Russian Soul wins.

215 Thegreendalerocket (110)
245 Mr Cardle/Windy Writer -10 (100)
455 Rockchasebullett/Mere Anarchy (110)
445 Best Trip -15 (75)
825 Domtaline -10 (105)
 
Domtaline wins.

205 Star Trouper -30 (100)
505 Sub Continent -10 (85)
705 Lathom -10 (85)
725 Beatbybeatbybeat (70)
750 Watchable -10 (95)
800 Glorious Power (75)
830 Spellmaker (60)
 
A blank Friday

240 Zac Brown -20/Quatrieme Ami -20 (75)
330 Fly Vinnie -20 (120)
405 Border Breaker (120)
440 Dica/Dursey Sound/Formidableopponent -40/ Voyage A New York (110)
510 War Whisper (80)
535 Lady Nahema (60)
555 Astracad - 20/Next Sensation (130)
615 Storm Trooper (60)
745 Birdcage -15 (75)
845 Someone Exciting (60)
 
250 Aguerooo -15 (80)
400 Nonno Giulio/Captain Revelation -10 (75)
410 Morgans Bay -15 (105)
440 Salto Chisco/Skilled -15 (105)
500 Lean On Pete (60)
525 Sandfrankskipsgo -10 (75)
550 Western Duke -10 (85)
650 Lawmaking -15 (90)
750 Rapid Rise (70)
 
Salto Chisco wins.

150 Stormbay Bomber (100)
210 Gask Ridge -20/Steel City (100)
300 Ticks The Boxes (70)
350 Thyne For Gold -10 (110)
420 Rain In The Face (100)
530 Boss De Mottes -20/Skint/Miami Present - 20 (100)
700 Aint No Limits -10 (100)
710 King Of Swing -15 (70)
810 Daily Trader (65)
840 My Mo (60)
 
No wins.

210 Rubensian -20 (75)
320 Intrude/Qeyaadah (85)
340 Kentford Myth -20 (105)
350 Athollblair Boy (65)
425 Ripper Street (60)
455 Pitch High (60)
725 Molly Jones (55)
805 Devils Water -20 (100)
825 Opening Time/Golden Eye (60)
 
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