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UKBF Common Race

Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating converted to odds.

Southwell (going forecast standard)
3.25 Marke expected 09.45 nos 1, 2, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

1*. 7 = 8/1+ (6/1 market 09.45)
2*. 10 = 5/1+ (7/2)
3. 4 = 18/1+ (12/1)
4. 6 = 10/1+ (20/1)
5*. 9 = 6/1+ (13/8)
6. 2 = 50/1+ (10/1)
7*. 19 = 15/8+ (6/1) Serenity Now
8. 4 = 18/1+ (12/1)
 
Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating converted to odds.

Southwell (going forecast standard)
3.25 Marke expected 09.45 nos 1, 2, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

1*. 7 = 8/1+ (6/1 market 09.45)
2*. 10 = 5/1+ (7/2)
3. 4 = 18/1+ (12/1)
4. 6 = 10/1+ (20/1)
5*. 9 = 6/1+ (13/8)
6. 2 = 50/1+ (10/1)
7*. 19 = 15/8+ (6/1) Serenity Now
8. 4 = 18/1+ (12/1)
Jack my head hurts - can you flesh this one out please
 
Not a race for me as the jumpers make it confusing, whether they are chasing the prize money or avoiding the bad jumps ground.

Cour De Lion is the one I like but too short to bet.

Interesting comment from Fanning when he last won on Mixboy:

. I won too far today - Joe Fanning, jockey.
Comes here 12lb higher as a result.

I think this may be the first C3 over the distance, but there have been 8 horses at single figs ( total of 15) attempt this distance in C4 grade without a run on the surface and all failed. Too small a sample I guess.
 
@markfinn, I will try although I am not sure what it is you want?

The 'market expected' are derived from using the OR in hcap as par for the race where all are weighted to have an equal chance, therefore, eight runners the odds of every runner in theory is 7/1, so, those longer than 7/1 are 'not expected'.
The Fineform master formula ratings top rating possible is 20.5+
3 pts each for the first three in the betting forecast (I use the early market odds instead)
Last two outings in the current season.
5 pts each win, 3pts each 2nd, 2 points each 3rd, 1 point each 4th. Except only one outing in the current season rates double points e.g., 1 win = 10
3 points C&D,CD. 2 points D, 1 point C.
4 points top three plus any joint from a form rating. I use RPR.
Splitting (I don't bother with this)
1/2 pt extra for top form rating and if still equal + for the shortest odds in the betting forecast.

Then all that need to be done is to convert the ratings to 'fair' odds, that is no advantage to any player, therefore longer odds are required to gain an edge.

The same system can be used for non-hcaps as the true mathematical odds for any race is one less than the number of runners in the field.
 
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Very hard to find a way into this race with four of the top five on OR having their first run on the surface.St Marys stays this trip and was a fair second to Watersmeet at Lingfield last time ( had little chance on OR but ran well to be second ) and if taking to the surface should be involved.Andrew Balding has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight and 26/90 29% here in the past five seasons.
 
Hi All!! Back again just had a look at this race and factors against them all! But the one that comes closest with my ratings is Serenity Now although he is up a fair amount in class, but likes this trip and course and his age could be an issue similar to Sats selection, but it is a distance race so maybe not as much effect, famous last words. So will go for the win but a place bet could be the best way to go.

Best of Luck!! to all others with selections as well.
 
Galileo's Spear has raced in France and the USA and is (apparantly) still owned by the Breeder. out of Galileo it could stay two miles but if ifs and buts were pots and pans.......so this would be a non race for my cash.

Vettori Rules was top on Inform Master Rating and Distance and at 25/ 1 would have been worth a shout but doesn't run. It also brings the field down to 7 which is another reason not to bet, no Each Way value.

For some reason there is a distance discrepancy too. HRB has 2m 1/2F whilst Inform has 2M.

NO BET!
 
Evening been busy the last few days, work Hey! Had a good look at this earlier after tea, I pick liquid, been dropped a 1LB for a defeat against now what looks a good run behind Oriental Lilly, that won cozily the next time

Daschus, also stepped up and gave a good account of himself in a higher grade, pearl and duke also won next time out with Poppy coming third.

Hopefully a switch to Wolves may bring this one home today

Regards
 
Something Lucky sticks out for me especially as the horse that beat him last time won again today. The run last time out was better than it looked as he had a poor draw and the way he finished suggests to me he can win off his current mark of 68. If you go back to 2016 he won here off a mark of 75. Tops my ratings and is flagged just as a value price so Something Lucky will be a bet form me

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