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UKBF Common Race

Something Lucky - I think Bosham and Swendab will lead, but SL has the speed to pounce - Something Lucky and Liquid both have (by my new split calculations*) been improving over each of the last few runs so I'm taking SL as he's also got a fair few lbs in hand on my normal speed ratings.

Unusually most of the runners sem to be suited to the race distance, I didn't go through them thinking 'that one should be over 6f not 5f' all that often!

Dave

(* The phrase 'new split calculations' is a trademark of 'I dunno toss a coin Enterprises, a wholly owned subsidiary of back the favourite Inc. registered in the Cayman Is.)
 
I've had a look on hrb, you can;t trend the race as there is no history. However, I've had a look at similar conditions races.

The p/r of the previous race. Anything over 1 and the performance was fairly poor, very few even placed.

Then I had a look at the draw.

f99bd67d3aa1b0b11292c4e64761bbc9.png


Finally horses have to have had 10+ runs.

19cc25d7ff71eec95bbfcf35769dd140.png


Something Lucky & Bosham are the only horses left.

There are a few that fail one filter.

Swendab, Zipedeedodah Draw segment
Liquid, Precious Plum 10+ runs.
 
Come on peeps - pick an easy one!

1518558914048.png

Several potentials once again - Something lucky discounted as wide draw and pace inside.

Between Logi & Acclaim The Nation on the rail and Bosham and Swendab in the middle - so hard to call but with Bosham having a significant weight advantage gets my slight vote but as an each way proposition
 
Plenty with chances in an open handicap.Acclaim The Nation,Bosham,Midnightly and Swendab (0/6 in class 5 or better ) all like to front run so no hanging about today.I will take a chance at 14/1 ew on Fruit Salad who can be forgiven a poor run at Southwell last time ( first run there and may not have handled the track ) but every chance on her previous close fifth at Newcastle,just behind Liquid who is a 9/2 chance today.Fruit Salad has figures of 2215 in class 5 handicaps on aw and James Bethell 8/37 22% here with 4-y-o+ in the past five seasons.
 
Acclaim The Nation second on debut a couple of years ago at Newcastle so should be at home around here the winner run third in December off 94 in a class 2 race Acclaim won a class 4 after a 226 day break last year when it had Stake Acclaim back in sixth who a class 2 at york off 97 so off 75 Acclaim could be well treated the jockey has a 31% strike rate with the owner seven from twenty two and five placed
 
Four winners and eight placers from Liquid's last race; split between Classes 4 and 5. Some. but not much market support for him too. Ben Curtis is a decent jockey around Wolves, and David Barron has a good record there too.

Top rated by my HRB figures

LIQUID to win, but 5/1 is big enough to EW if that's your style.


I'd also watch Precious Plum in the market, it could win this if returning to the track in rude health.
 
How can anyone decide on ratings to consider, which are just opinion expressed as a number? After all the criteria included are not often known, so in the end it comes down to comparing success. Here are two from quite different angles as far as I know; the RP betting forecast and infineform just as a matter of interest.

Wolverhampton (going forecast standard)
6.45 Market expected 09.50 nos 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 was indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected longer tan 9/1.

RP betting forecast with 125% overround ( rather high for a 10 runner field) stripped out to give fair odds.
1. 15/1+ (28/1 market 09.50)
2. 18/1+ (33/1)
3*. 13/1+ (9/2)
4. 15/1+ (14/1)
5*. 13/2+ (5/1)
6*. 10/1+ (13/2)
7*. 13/2+ (7/2)
8*. 7/1+ (9/1) Bosham
10*. 9/2+ (3/1)
11. 10/1+ (20/1)

infineform, which are trainer/jockey/horse form rated converted to fair odds.
1. 6/1+
2. 10/1+
3*. 13/2+
4. 12/1+
5*. 6/1+
6*. 5/1+ (13/2 market 09.50) Midnightly
7*. 13/2+
8*. 11/1+
10*. 33/1+
11. 300/1+
 
How can anyone decide on ratings to consider, which are just opinion expressed as a number? After all the criteria included are not often known
One solution might be to create your own.? I do.:) You then need to utilize your opinion in order to get the very best from your numbers.A lot of effort and no easy ask, but then again in this business there will never be any easy long term gains.That is not opinion it is a fact.:)
 
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother, actually I meant easily available ratings not those of a personal nature. I actually compile my own by making a pen and paper chart from criteria advised by the late Prof. Frank George - Class, time, form rating, weight-change, recent form, overall form, distance and the market.

Wolverhampton (going forecast standard)
6.45 Market expected 11.35 nos 3, 5, 6, 7, 10 now indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 4 = 50/1+ req (28/1 11.25 market)
2. 6 = 16/1+ (33/1)
3*. 5 =25/1 (9/2)
4. 7 = 12/1+ (16/1)
5*. 8 =10/1+ (6/1)
6*. 11 = 11/2+ (8/1) Midnight
7*. 9 = 8/1+ (9/4)
8. 12 = 5/1+ (11/1) Bosham
10*. 15 = 7/2+ (7/2) Something Lucky if it eases a little
11. 6 = 16/1 + (25/1)

Comment: Studying the chart the top four look high in the weights and overall form is not good. Midnight is OK on time, weight and overall form. Bosham has the class, top for form rating, is favoured by weight-change. Something Lucky is OK for time and recent form but the biggest factor in favour is a 15lb weight-change.
 
There's an awful lot of hard work going into the selections on this thread ! (yes, I know what VDW said - and a lot of others too). But for that kind of effort I'd want a very high success rate. (I feel an attack coming on !)

Simplistic ratings suggest Something Lucky (1) with Bosham (2). Both winners over course and both winners over the distance, but I don't care for 7lb claimers so for me it's got to be Something Lucky. There is also indication that Midnightly can go well, and Joe Fanning can only be a plus.
 
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