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Why not back the draw instead of laying??

Discussion in 'Tips' started by StuBoy10, Jun 16, 2017.

  1. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    Going to start a little trial here using a few set criteria I look for myself for backing the draw across a number of leagues around the world.

    Loads of systems out there focus on laying the draw but very few around backing it.

    It's a simple fact that while the draw will generally average around 25-35% of results across a full league season many ppl would rather lay it than back it, probably because backing the draw is hardly a 'sexy' affair lol.

    In the Premiership we have a total of 380 games, where between 95-133 are likely to end in a draw. If we then use set criteria to narrow down the games to be on we give ourselves a huge chance of profiting not only using level stakes but also by using small stakes accas.

    I hear you say 'all very well in theory but it will never work'... so lets give it a go :)

    Today I backed the below as trebles, obviously 3 results are in and the other is in-play just now but it will be interesting to see how this goes over the next month or two.

    Backing as singles we only ever need 2 out of 4 to win to be in profit.

    Bet 1. 1 points singles and £5 total stake trebles.

    Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar @ 3.0 - LOST = -1 point
    Coritiba v Bahia @ 3.3 - WON = +2.3 points
    Club Jorge Wilstermann v The Strongest @ 3.3 - WON = +2.3 points
    Defensa y Justicia v Independiente @ 2.88 - LOST = -1 point

    Below are the 2nd bets I am placing taking into account Fridays games.

    Bet 2. 1 points singles and £5 total stake trebles.

    IFK Aspudden Tellus v Stromsberg IF @ 3.75
    Misr Elmaqasah v El-Entag El-Harby @ 3.6
    Criciuma v Guarani @ 3.0
    Villa Dalmine v Guillermo Brown @ 2.8


    I'll post results based on flat 1 point stakes as singles and a £5 trebles or doubles bet depending on the number of qualifying selections per day with a maximum of 4 per day.

    Level Stakes = 2.6 points
    Acca (£5 stakes) = -£5

    *Accas will always be played as either trebles (if 4 teams) or doubles (if 2 or 3 teams)
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
    markfinn likes this.
  2. djb38

    djb38 Gelding

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    Good luck with this and great to see some different ideas being generated.
    when all the stats and signs point to a draw you still get decent odds so the value side of your system should be in your favour, so long as you stick to your criteria.
     
    StuBoy10 likes this.
  3. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    I'll be honest I like backing the draw and always have done when placing accas so I have placed a few criteria in to hopefully pin point when a draw is more likely top occur.

    Be interesting to see, was unlucky last night with Independiente getting a winner in the last 15 minutes, that is the only problem with backing the draw... it's squeeky bum time right to the end... no easy winners as such lol.
     
    djb38 likes this.
  4. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    Putting Saturdays bets up early as I am away early doors tomorrow without access to a computer until Sunday evening.

    Bet 3. 1 point singles and £5 total stake trebles.

    Hebei China Fortune FC v Tianjin Quanjian @ 3.65
    Estudiantes v Belgrano @ 3.6
    Atletico de Rafaela v Quilmes @ 3.75
    Chacarita v Boca Unidos @ 3.6

    Level Stakes = 2.6 points (8 games to play)
    Acca (£5 stakes) = -£5 (2 accas to play)
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
  5. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    Below is a run-down of the outstanding fixtures... I'm going to keep an eye on different ways we can play these as I've notice a number of these have had late goals to cost us the wins, we might have good options for trading to make smaller but more regular gains.

    We then have our accas still in play should we land all 3/4 draws.

    IFK Aspudden Tellus v Stromsberg IF @ 3.75 - LOST = -1 point
    Misr Elmaqasah v El-Entag El-Harby @ 3.6 - LOST = -1 point
    Criciuma v Guarani @ 3.0 - LOST = -1 point
    Villa Dalmine v Guillermo Brown @ 2.8 - WON = +1.8 points

    Hebei China Fortune FC v Tianjin Quanjian @ 3.65 - LOST = -1 point
    Estudiantes v Belgrano @ 3.6 - LOST = -1 point
    Atletico de Rafaela v Quilmes @ 3.75 - WON = 2.75 point
    Chacarita v Boca Unidos @ 3.6 - LOST = -1 points

    Level Stakes = 1.15 points
    Acca (£5 stakes) = -£15
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
  6. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    Had a quick look at the stats and we have had 4 games out of the 12 with late goals after 75 mins costing us, we have had though 8 of the 12 games trad-able by this time allowing us to make a profit no matter what happens... now looking at trading them is difficult however we can be assured the price of the draw will be 2.0 or usually less by 75 mins but without trading this a while we can;t get a true reflection as some games had equalisers late on as well and if a goal comes to equalise in say 85 mins we can 'green-out' for a larger profit. However I will look at saying we are trading out @ 1.9 for all games drawing @ 75 minutes.

    If we took an example of a back bet @ 3.4 and then a lay at 1.9 on 75 mins to 'green out'. We would equalise £7.50 profit on each game, this in our 12 bets so far would like the below.

    12 bets
    8 trade winners = £60.16
    4 trade losers = -£40
    Total = £20.16 (2 points)

    Now this is pure example and the price of 3.4 was taken as an average.. the draw in the Atletico De Rafaela could be backed on Betfair @ 4.1 which means we would have traded out for £11 so I reckon on the whole we would be looking at profits of around £10 more given the late equalisers as well in some cases truning a loss into a much larger profit.

    I will record results using both methods and see how we go... a small regular profit from games even making 1 point a a day I would be more than happy with.
     
    markfinn likes this.
  7. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    Just the one bet today.

    Flora Tallin v JK Nomme Kalju @ 3.4 (3.65 Betfair)
     
  8. ArkRoyal

    ArkRoyal Administrator

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    Will you be checking that 1.9 is available at 75 minutes or are you just assuming it will be?
     
  9. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    I will be checking the price, I expect in a lot of games it will actually be lower as the 0-0 price is usually around 1-9 - 2.0 by 75 minutes in most games, especially those priced up for a draw below 4.0 at KO.

    Those that have an equaliser after 75 minutes will be even lower than 1.9.

    I'll be quoting prices I can achieve.
     
  10. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    A losing trade and bet yesterday.

    Again only one for today.

    San Lorenzo v Banfield @ 3.46 (Betfair 3.65)
     
  11. FootballBettingPredictor

    FootballBettingPredictor Foal

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    Hello @StuBoy10 ,
    Above is games in Norway where I've compiled the odds and when the draw odds I've compiled are shorter then the odds the bookmakers have made the draw . Its a very small sample of 26 games but shows profit of 66.3 pts to 10pts stakes. Alot of people miss the key thing when it comes to sports betting and that is probability in order to help you win you need to work out what the probability of what each outcome is.

    As for trading out that is up to the individual for me I don't trade out I'll take the luck when it comes and I'll accept it when I'm unlucky we all go through these periods. Sometimes you will throw away profit by trading out sometimes you will gain profit on losing bets I always let it ride and what will be will be.

    I think like you have said the draw is the least likely outcome punters will back as most will have a strong opinion about a side that they think will win and no one wants to back a draw and sit there and hope for a 0-0. If you would like me to post all leagues data with draws I will others wise good luck with this I will be popping in to see how it goes.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
    djb38 likes this.
  12. djb38

    djb38 Gelding

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    Morning @FootballBettingPredictor
    I can see 6 games on the list of 33 games where your draw odds are higher than the bookies odds :confused:
     
  13. FootballBettingPredictor

    FootballBettingPredictor Foal

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    @djb38 Thank you for that I will sort that out now its all done auto by the spreadsheet thank you so much for pointing that out :idk:
     
  14. FootballBettingPredictor

    FootballBettingPredictor Foal

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    upload_2017-6-20_9-0-12.png

    Here is the table for the post above
     
    djb38 likes this.
  15. djb38

    djb38 Gelding

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    No problem @FootballBettingPredictor it still shows a healthy profit of 67pts
    I'd like to see the data from the other leagues as it's an interesting concept.
    Might be better on another thread so that it doesn't clog up this one?
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  16. StuBoy10

    StuBoy10 Foal

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    @FootballBettingPredictor the trading out part is a concept I want to trial and see where it goes... it gives the option of either letting the game run or securing profit late on... it can also add a lot of value as I have seen so far (albeit with a very small sample) of late goals.

    We'll see how it goes over the next month or two to evaluate what, if any, method is better.
     

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