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Wolber 3 the 2017 comeback special

Discussion in 'Introductions' started by wolber, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. wolber

    wolber Filly

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    Hello everyone . Glad to see that this forum is still going and has not succumbed to any sort of horrible commercialism .

    It’s been a couple of years since I posted here , maybe longer I can’t be arsed to check?



    Over this time I have learnt some valuable lessons, ones that we all know in our heart of hearts but fail to admit to ....



    - Horse racing, Greyhounds and events based around a set of unpredictable animals running around a track will not make anyone consistent money as a betting medium (Apart from possibly in the method I will describe below). Straight betting on racing only works if you are somehow connected to the horse (Even then they don’t always win) or somehow have access to the source betting patterns. (hack the bookies!). Occasionally one can hit the jackpot by careful form study or tipsters but on the whole racing in any form is simply a mugs game. The bookies now have so much protection and so many algorithms to predict and prevent winners that it’s pointless.



    - Football matches , boxing , tennis etc. are much easier to pick winners at BUT the odds are often prohibitive without careful money management can go drastically and expensively wrong. The bookies have most bases covered with these bets as well BUT .... I have made some cash and again I will explain how below.



    So onto what I have been doing.



    As some of you know I make computer games for a living and am half coder half artist. I have been doing some freelancing working on the disgusting virtual racing nonsense that you see in high street bookies and also creating graphical content for the likes of Betfair sportsbook etc . My betting has been greatly reduced. It was always about beating the bookies with me , via logic and clever systems . That’s before my epiphany after speaking to people that would know. It’s like finding out how sausages are really made by speaking with a mate who’s a butcher.



    I’m boring myself now so without further ado I will explain how I now bet and what I bet on





    The key to most of my bets is the movement of the odds at certain times of day and on certain specific sites.



    1) Horses (I rarely bother now ) . This bet is the only one I place and sometimes days can go by with no suitable races.



    - Find races with 8 runners

    - failing that 9 runners

    - Observe the odds on oddscheker around lunchtime

    - Look for races with a Short priced fav and longer odds 2nd and 3rd fav.

    - Ensure the 2nd or 3rd fav has money coming in (Blue boxes for most of the bookies on oddschecker)

    - I only bet when I can find 3 races that fulfil this criteria otherwise walk away.

    - Place the 3 horses in an each way trixie.



    That’s it. The potential for a large pay out is good with a high probability that you will at least get your money back . The horse you pick must be at least 7/2 or 4.5. And yes I know it’s a tweaked version of Alex Birds each way thief system







    2) Boxing (Few and far between)



    - Find a match that will be PPV or televised (less chance of dodginess)

    - Find the fav normally stupidly odds on

    - examine the favs record check if they are a knockout artist

    - Now back the hopeless opponent to win

    - Now back the odds on fav to win by KO/TKO and Dutch the two outcomes Fav to win by KO and opponent to win . This can often end up as evens / 6/1





    3) Football (The majority of my bets and makes the most profit)



    A)

    - Either choose three sides from the EPL, ChMp, Spains LaLi, Germanys Bundes or Italian Seria A that are playing away and are as close to evens as possible. Where the home side is at least 1.5 points longer

    - Put these three in a trixie and that’s it. Most of the time you will get your money back with this



    B)

    - Go to oddschecker and look at football market movers . Look at the ones with the biggest market swing.

    - Ensure these teams are from leagues you have never heard of or can even pronounce the team name.

    - Find three that are still odds against and back them in a trixie. This pays out a LOT because its the most obvious way to spot dodgy matches . If some pub side in the Democratic Republic of Congo suddenly has a 10 % market swing one can safely assume that a brown envelope has changed hands prior to kick off.



    With a bit of discipline these systems work . No clever form study or inside info just looking at the betting markets mainly and utilising the Trixie bet , which bookies do genuinely not like at all as they never advertise it.





    TTFN
     
    djb38 and Keegans head like this.
  2. ArkRoyal

    ArkRoyal Administrator

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    Nice to see you again @wolber hope all is well with you and yours.
     
  3. dave58

    dave58 Administrator

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  4. djb38

    djb38 Gelding

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    Nice of you to share @wolber
    I'm sure a few of the horse experts might disagree with your views, but the boxing and football strategies are sound advice from obvious years of experience :handgestures-thumbup:
     
  5. wolber

    wolber Filly

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    I'm going to move this to the testing area with today's examples of the system in use.
     
  6. pete

    pete Gelding

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    This is the best line of text I've ever seen from a set of instructions from a system ... And I've seen a few :) thanks for my morning giggle .. and welcome back, and good luck!
     
    djb38 likes this.
  7. BH01

    BH01 Foal

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    I'm certainly not an expert at this stage but there is definitely a lot of evidence to suggest that fundamental (not price-based technical) systems can work long-term for racing, I think the key is to look for variables/filters that aren't commonly used or known about. Form figures, days since last ran, weight, OR etc have been done to death by the ratings software/neural network guys, so it just takes a bit of creativity.
     
    djb38 likes this.

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