I’ve put this selection up today as I’m a new member , I like the quality of the conversation on the forum and I want to give something back for the opportunity to read & learn from some previous posts and threads and hopefully a few of the members will help guide me a little with some things that I’m Pursing ..
7.15 Wolves -
SAYESSE - 11/2
Not unexposed, but theres a nice jigsaw here -
Won up to 83 and numerous other wins in better class than today as a 2/3yo.
Sire stats point to a VERY poor show on turf..
Now, SAYESSE has done her 2 and 3 yo career on turf - turf sire STATS 0/30 3yos, turf stats generally on turf 6% sr…and anything worse than firm ground has a poor SR too..
last years stats are very interesting - 1st 3 yo race was back after 167 break - possibly sharpened up to assess ability on AW debut and preferred surface for sire too. Looked vunerable with 9-13 on his back and a large price never suggests the channon stable are confident!
Anyway , ran a sound race to lose by 1.5 lengths at kempton (first AW run) against 2 horses who have retained high 80 ratings…. Rememebr thought that this was a right handed course and sire stats suggest 6% SR on right and 18% on left!!
Next run was over 5.5f - sire suggests min prefered dist, would be 6f …and he seems to like to be held up - so that wouldn’t be ideal, as he was running on. The race was at Bath - (now BATH is notorious for frm ground, so it would have been his best chance on his turf runs) although distance was probably a bit sharp - in running Commenotry says -‘ not clear run but ran on’… NExt time out was at chester in a 95 rated and lost by 1/2 length … no great animals, but ended up with a handicap mark of 87..
Chester - also is a tight left handed, so it always bodes well with a liking for wolves !! Today’s course!
He had another 4 or 5 races on turf, on softer ground and up to 100+ rated handis - this was clearly the plan to reduce the handicap right down for 2018 and an AW campaign that the sire suggests is perfect.
He come back out in 2018 - first 2 runs were kempton (right handed and 25/1) and next run was 40/1 , but got caught in some horrible traffic, but by the look of the price, channon didnt have him stripped fit, and he probably wanted to get him down to a much more realistic handicap mark…
He then came out for his 3rd run and hes off a mark of 70…and hes at wolves -(sire suggests 23% SR and distance to suit)..Runs a very good race and comes 3rd against Murdanova (won back to back and hasnt been seen since) - SAYESSE beat spare parts 90 rated and fast track 85 , who have both gone onto 90 ratings… rouge noiur - who was second went on to run in a class 2 …but failed - was 33/1 though!...
next run over CD , SAYESSE won nicely, beating the fav- mansfield and bernies boy - now rated 78 - quite easily!
The next run was last time out, when he was a drifter from 7/2 - 18/1 (I watched and noted this !) and was held 20 + lengths off the pace and ran like an absolute rocket in the final furlong and hit a wall of traffic..
Today hes back to wolves and 7f ( preferred course and dist) , off 73 and he has now been blessed with a real jockey - Andrea Atzeni - who, strangely enough, has a 5/9 SR when riding for mick channon over conditions, when fancied!
Heads of the market at 2.30pm -
Tuscany - coles has an unexposed duel course winner here, but his lay off stats at the course are 0/22 , & left tight courses 1/64!! And what also is interesting is same class sprinters with lay off on AW is 0/32...so Im not expect a bit run today and his wins aren’t exposing any hidden class expectations either
Nick vedder - not totally convinced about this one either - drop to 7f doesn’t throw up any positives for me ( even if RP have napped him and say it’s going to play to his strength ) switch from Newcastle to wolves looks positive , but I would like to have seen more at lingfield in December- he also looked complicated and slightly unsure of his task!
LTO form , doesn’t highlight a high 70s animal either and it does make you wonder why he left Karl Burke in July for 20k off a mark of 73 !! Is he good enough !?!
I’ve got SAYESSE at a mark of 76-78 and that’s above par for class for me and that says he’s worthy of a 5/1 ew punt
No guarantees of winning or losing but hopefully a guide to help you make a decision if your taking part in this race too.
Atb
Speedking
7.15 Wolves -
SAYESSE - 11/2
Not unexposed, but theres a nice jigsaw here -
Won up to 83 and numerous other wins in better class than today as a 2/3yo.
Sire stats point to a VERY poor show on turf..
Now, SAYESSE has done her 2 and 3 yo career on turf - turf sire STATS 0/30 3yos, turf stats generally on turf 6% sr…and anything worse than firm ground has a poor SR too..
last years stats are very interesting - 1st 3 yo race was back after 167 break - possibly sharpened up to assess ability on AW debut and preferred surface for sire too. Looked vunerable with 9-13 on his back and a large price never suggests the channon stable are confident!
Anyway , ran a sound race to lose by 1.5 lengths at kempton (first AW run) against 2 horses who have retained high 80 ratings…. Rememebr thought that this was a right handed course and sire stats suggest 6% SR on right and 18% on left!!
Next run was over 5.5f - sire suggests min prefered dist, would be 6f …and he seems to like to be held up - so that wouldn’t be ideal, as he was running on. The race was at Bath - (now BATH is notorious for frm ground, so it would have been his best chance on his turf runs) although distance was probably a bit sharp - in running Commenotry says -‘ not clear run but ran on’… NExt time out was at chester in a 95 rated and lost by 1/2 length … no great animals, but ended up with a handicap mark of 87..
Chester - also is a tight left handed, so it always bodes well with a liking for wolves !! Today’s course!
He had another 4 or 5 races on turf, on softer ground and up to 100+ rated handis - this was clearly the plan to reduce the handicap right down for 2018 and an AW campaign that the sire suggests is perfect.
He come back out in 2018 - first 2 runs were kempton (right handed and 25/1) and next run was 40/1 , but got caught in some horrible traffic, but by the look of the price, channon didnt have him stripped fit, and he probably wanted to get him down to a much more realistic handicap mark…
He then came out for his 3rd run and hes off a mark of 70…and hes at wolves -(sire suggests 23% SR and distance to suit)..Runs a very good race and comes 3rd against Murdanova (won back to back and hasnt been seen since) - SAYESSE beat spare parts 90 rated and fast track 85 , who have both gone onto 90 ratings… rouge noiur - who was second went on to run in a class 2 …but failed - was 33/1 though!...
next run over CD , SAYESSE won nicely, beating the fav- mansfield and bernies boy - now rated 78 - quite easily!
The next run was last time out, when he was a drifter from 7/2 - 18/1 (I watched and noted this !) and was held 20 + lengths off the pace and ran like an absolute rocket in the final furlong and hit a wall of traffic..
Today hes back to wolves and 7f ( preferred course and dist) , off 73 and he has now been blessed with a real jockey - Andrea Atzeni - who, strangely enough, has a 5/9 SR when riding for mick channon over conditions, when fancied!
Heads of the market at 2.30pm -
Tuscany - coles has an unexposed duel course winner here, but his lay off stats at the course are 0/22 , & left tight courses 1/64!! And what also is interesting is same class sprinters with lay off on AW is 0/32...so Im not expect a bit run today and his wins aren’t exposing any hidden class expectations either
Nick vedder - not totally convinced about this one either - drop to 7f doesn’t throw up any positives for me ( even if RP have napped him and say it’s going to play to his strength ) switch from Newcastle to wolves looks positive , but I would like to have seen more at lingfield in December- he also looked complicated and slightly unsure of his task!
LTO form , doesn’t highlight a high 70s animal either and it does make you wonder why he left Karl Burke in July for 20k off a mark of 73 !! Is he good enough !?!
I’ve got SAYESSE at a mark of 76-78 and that’s above par for class for me and that says he’s worthy of a 5/1 ew punt
No guarantees of winning or losing but hopefully a guide to help you make a decision if your taking part in this race too.
Atb
Speedking
