• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

£100 to £1000 in 9 days challenge

My maths may be wrong and also the chance % maths may be wrong but is this correct...


Picking a 1.33 winner is like having 10 balls in a bag. 3 balls are red and 7 are white.

If you pick a white ball you win , if you pick red ball you lose?

Is that right?

Would it be the same ratio for 1000 balls? With 334 reds and 666 whites (rounded up slightly)

As an Even chance would be 5 balls red and 5 balls white, correct?


If correct, then no wonder the 1.33 selections fail so much. Would a 1.1 treble be a better way or are the odds still against you?

My head hurts.
 
1.33 implies there is a 75.19% chance of the bet winning

1.1 implies 90.9% chance

for a 1.1 treble, this chance becomes 90.9^3 which is 75.1% chance of making your treble..

Of course, IMO, odds this low are usually poor value
 
thanks Tony

start £10
profit £6.50 after comm
bal. £16.50

if i do have some success with this it will likely take me longer than 9 days as i will follow dave58's advice to bank some profit along the way, and i like the idea of splitting bets 70/30 on occasions.

i really like the look of fc twente to win on friday evening at cambuur. they're hitting form atm and have a 3-0 and 5-0 win off their last 2 games to send them top of the league and they're away at canbuur who are 12th out of 18, so i think fc twente are great value to win at 1.66 betfair; and i'll stick with the starting stake of £10
 
good luck mate i also like the look of the wally with the brolly's old side twente look a good shout,also think banking some profit along the way is the only way to go.
 
Just out of interest I had a look at some of my old results when I was doing the pro tips on t'other side , thinking 'I wonder if I ever got 9 placers on the trot'

The answer is a definite NO !!!

Best I did (when I ended up with a POI of 35% on the month btw) was 5 !!

Most months I got 3 or 4 max, so I don't think I'll be trying this !!

Best of British to anyone that does though .
 
1-0 to fc twente although the stats on bet365 suggested a very close match

open bal £16.50
profit £6.10 after comm
close bal £22.60

going to use a stake of £12.60 and have 2 bets as follows:
£8.60 barcalona to win to nil (v valladolid) @ 1.68 betfair
£4 over 3.5 goals barcalona v valladolid @ 1.93 betfair...... hoping for a double bubble here but at least if barca concede then the game should go over 3.5

good luck to anyone following
 
barca 4-1 valladolid :headbang:

open bal £22.60
loss £5.05 (lost £8.60 less winnings of £3.55)
close bal £17.55

very strange bet from me coming up, but this game tomorrow night has draw written all over it. i know this thread is meant to be about going all in on heavily odds on matches, but as i'm still using betfairs money i'm going for it

guimaraes v maritimo £5.55 on the draw @ 3.30 betfair
guimaraes v maritimo £2 on 1-1 correct score @ 6.8 betfair

both teams have an identical record of 2 wins 1 draw and 3 losses so far with both teams losing last 2 games so i reckon both will be happy with a point
 
guimaraes 1-0 maritimo

this game was trundling along to 0-0 when maritimo had a player sent off on 73 mins allowing guimaraes to score within 5 minutes and win the game. :mad:

open bal £17.55
loss 7.55
close bal £10
 
back to drawing board, with starting stake, £10 on phil taylor to win by 2 sets to nil against jamie caven @ 1.67 betfair
 
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