Early days

[saxonprop]

S saxonprop - this may help mate - excel spreadsheet that converts ratings to odds - it was set up for either form or time ratings that are specifically expressed in lbs , and are relatively close together but the calculation on the sheet could be tweaked and adapted to any numerical rating by adjusting the 'power' within the formula. You can also adjust the confidence level etc. It shows odds to a 100% book , and then adjusts to around a 86% book - it also calculates lay odds as well. Have a fiddle around with it , might help.

thank you very much

 

[saxonprop]

for another check on going allowances i know this guy puts up his workings every week on twitter and has for a couple of years now, always worth a look if your looking for confirmation or are stuck for another opinion - his GA is expressed in lbs and has a guide / explanation on his page.
Steve High (@eachway) | Twitter
View attachment 58312

thank you very much

 

[saxonprop]

i think you

No I don't have an odds line - I'm very unscientific in that regard, I simply decide for myself what I consider to be the actual chance a horse will win based on the form I have worked out for the runners, and I also look (after deciding what I think) at the forecast odds, then decide if I'm going to get what I consider a decent price. This can backfire in that if I think something will win then any price beyond 4 or 5/1 automatically looks reasonable!
I did, early on, produce my own tissue but to be honest I was no wiser for what I produced!

At the moment I only work one or two races a day, the UKBF Common Thread race usually, which is done for fun (and, most days, pain) and one other - which is my main effort for the day you might say, and the one I am most likely to have a small bet on - this race is normally 5 or 6f with 10 runners or less, and I work out far more races than I bet on. Although I have, so far, been profitable with tiny stakes I need to get much better before having any sort of real go at this - for now it's more an absorbing hobby than a genuine attempt to generate excess finance

Dave

i think you are on the right path. Dick Mitchell's book (winning thoroughbred strategies) shows you how many races you need to test for 95 and 99% confidence level in your work

 

[davejb]

I think I'm on the right track with some things, probably not others, and I have the perennial problem that afflicts those who bet - it isn't that I don't follow a systematic method when working out form etc, it's that I'm still trying to discover a methodology that suits my data and approach.... this is slow going!

Anyhow, tomorrow's 2 racecards - no AW.

I forgot to post up 'yesterday' errr, yesterday, and as that report file gets overwritten each day I can't post the version for 2 days back, but it was pretty much as I said the evening before - there were something in the region of 40 races rated, and the ratings ended up up by 5 or 6 pts or thereabouts, so nothing spectacular.

Yesterday (that is today's yesterday, not yesterday's yesterday, right?)
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 2.5 1.38 (Return: 5.88)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 2.5 1.38 (Return: 5.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/19 Odds: 3.5 3.5 2.0 1.75 (Return: 14.75)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 3.5 1.75 (Return: 7.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.1 0.25 0.4 (Return: 4.75)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 1.1 0.25 0.4 (Return: 4.75)

So that's not very good still, I do hope we get a reasonable run now to the start of the flat (when, of course, the early flat ratings will be useless) and some steady form from Cheltenham onwards. For while now the ratings have proved remarkably accurate at finding beaten favourites.

Well, let's see what next week brings.
Dave

 

[davejb]

And another day passes -
Yesterday:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 3.0 4.5 (Return: 9.5)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 3.0 4.5 (Return: 9.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/6 Odds: 0.29 1.1 0.67 (Return: 5.06)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 0.29 1.1 0.67 (Return: 5.06)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/18 Odds: 4.0 3.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/7 Odds: 0.11 0.73 0.2 (Return: 4.04)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 0.11 0.73 0.2 (Return: 4.04)

Still a down day, 39 out and a bit over 27 back. Today seems to have gone okay thankfully, it's nice to have at least one winning day every now and then - Warwick only had a single 11/4 winner but the ratings got the 4th-6th at Market Rasen at 6/1, 13/2 and 11/2 so that made a big difference!
I doubt this is anything by way of a turnround, just an occasional good day, but I'll be hoping the ratings don't make a total hash of Cheltenham.

Anyhow, good luck, enjoy the coming week.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Well, at last the hype will run down a little, by weekend hopefully the mouth frothing will have ceased. Tomorrow's cards etc are attached, and so far the only bet I have resolved to make is an EW on Elgin in the Champion hurdle. He's an Elite Racing Club horse so my wife will be actively cheering him on tomorrow, and perhaps because I tend to get involved with Elite's runners (so I can discuss things sensibly with my wife - ie tell her when they really aren't likely to win) I find myself having more of an opinion about them. Elgin has pretty much improved every run, and now he's withing 6 or 7 lbs (I'd say) of the top, so whilst everything else in that sort of company has been disappointing off and on Elgin hasn't - so I reckon he's a decent EW bet and not totally without a hope of winning. About the only thing against him doing his best will be the ground, and although he has handled much softer than originally thought if it's too soft it might catch him out - he's very game though, so as long as he doesn't have any accidents I reckon I'll at least get a run for the few pounds I'll risk on him.

Yesterday: (No flat)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/11 Odds: 6.0 6.5 5.5 (Return: 21.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

16 out 24.75 back, a good day for a change.
Today is currently looking iffy - 3 winners up to the start of Chelmsford - take out the non runners and it's 19 top rated returning (so far) about 15 pts, so not a disaster yet but thank goodness for that 10/1 winner at Plumpton!

Dave

 

[davejb]

On with the daily effort - I had three bets today in the end, none very big thankfully! St Calvados to win, and both Elgin and Vintage Clouds EW - I messed up with Vintage Clouds as I told my wife Beware the Bear and VC for the race, and as BTB came 4th he'd have paid more! I thought Elgin ran a good race,

I think that shows where his limit probably is - while I think he could go closer on better ground at the very top level he's going to be lucky to place, but he can pick up the odd grade one if the likes of B D'Air are absent.... a very nice horse, in other words. Slight gamble on the late submission, £20,000 for the late entry and his 5th place earned 12 grand or so - had he managed 4th there'd have been about 4k profit for the run, so not a bad gamble that almost paid off... and how much was it worth to the club members to have a decent chance in the Champion hurdle? I believe serious money was offered to buy him recently, but the club is keeping the homebred - it's the racing that counts, which I totally agree with.

Having said that, don't count on Volcanic for the gold cup any time soon....

Right, so one place bet up, pretty similar performance to the ratings - yesterday:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/10 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/4 Odds: 0.53 1.5 0.2 (Return: 5.23)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.5 0.2 (Return: 3.7)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 10.0 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

As usual a fantastic performance was prevented by a number, in fact quite a lot, of top rated runners actually losing contrary to the plan.
I make that 26 out and 19.23 back. Today was looking horrible (now it's just bad) until a 12/1 shot came up, 4 winners to tie of posting, a 7/2 and 2 odds on plus that 12/1 don't make up for a total of 29 rated runners so the last 4 at Newcastle need to produce something spectacular. (But, let's face it, probably won't).
One thing really struck me about the ratings for Cheltenham, hardly any of the fancied runners have produced any decent ratings - the top rated list appears, at first glance, to be a guide to the 50/1 and upwards runners for the day. So, read the form on the cards, but the ratings really need double checking.

Dave

 

[TheBluesBrother]

but the ratings really need double checking.

I had noticed a few faux par's, especially yesterday in the champion hurdle where you had John Constable rated 20pts higher than Buveur D'air,
where I manually assess my figures, this would have certainly raised a red flag.

The worst performance yesterday was Saint Calvados, who's last time out at Warwick earned a speed figure from me of 142, yesterday he only managed figure of 94 on going I had at -0.72s/f (soft), the winner Footpad produced his best ever speed figure of 139 to top yesterday's Cheltenham figures.

This morning I spent about 90 minutes compiling the speed figures for yesterday's 4 meetings.

Mike.

 

[davejb]

TheBluesBrother

To b fair, if John Constable had won it would have looked brilliant,..,

When I use the ratings it isn't to simply grab the top rated, although that was how I started out - I regard the top third or so as being the likely source of the winner, and I pay most attention to the last three runs where I'm dubious about ratings that are significantly different to the rest that the runner has on show. The daily post is showing what blind following of the top rated produces, so if you had a 2m novice hurdle with the first 4 each from the Derby and St Leger in that were making their hurdling debuts, and one other runner that had a rating of 10 from it's sole outing when coming 12th of 12 in a donkey walloping contest, then the donkey job would be top rated.... ie top rated report shows the minimum that ought to be achievable, provided some additional thinking occurs.

... to get back to my original point, yes, it was highly unlikely.

Dave

 

[davejb]

TheBluesBrother
Mike, just to illustrate the point about being playthings of the gods -



- this was based on an 11 month old rating from (I think it was) Fairyhouse - this was today's Coral Cup 20/1 winner, top rated by about 10 lbs! I wish I'd suspended disbelief and gone with it, I had William Henry EW instead.

Actually another example of the same thing that saw John Constable top rated - dating back to when I was starting with the ratings and still had to get to grips with getting the allowance sorted properly, adding rail movements, and so on. It's from the original 'take the top 3 rated and adjust to match the OR' version - I seem to remember having a horse rated 470 odd one day a year back.

I tend to regard my efforts prior to August or thereabouts as very much a learning phase - still not there yet, but spring and at least the first half of summer I would regard the ratings as needing a glance.... many of them would not change a lot if done today, but some would for sure as the Irish meetings especially would be very difficult to figure out in any meaningful way. The form information, on the other hand is just fine, so as long as you aren't betting on the strength of a 6 month+ old rating that is wildly different to more recent ones it's more use in than out I think.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Just in case anyone hasn't picked up the message from the above, and perhaps wasn't around when I started this thread almost a year back, the thread is about my attempt to go from tyro to adept (cough) in the field of handicapping horses, specifically (so far at least) by calculating speed ratings. The daily spreadsheets show what I have figured out in several different formats. Examine the sheets and read the thread and you'll see how my efforts to learn to solve the puzzle have progressed over the past 10 or 11 months.

Like MIke (TheBluesBrother) I spend a fair amount of time on this, unlike Mike I try to automate a lot of the work by programming my PC to do most of the repetitive stuff - down to writing Excel macros to format the output files, who wants to spend all day formatting columns? (Although it is oddly soothing at times).

My database of results and ratings started on 1 April last year, so this is the oldest data in the daily cards. As I suggest in the post above I have improved my ability to calculate speed ratings during that time - so the older the ratings the less able I was at the time to spot if something was a bit unlikely, what it amounts to is unusually high or low speed ratings need to be viewed relative to recent figures - if a horse has run 66,73, 48 since Christmas, and there's a speed rating of 167 from last April, then the April figure is definitely one that I'd ignore unless the form line showed it was the day he beat Arkle or similar.

I leave 'old' form in because (A) MOST of the ratings, even back then, were calculated on a sound enough basis, (B) there's nothing wrong with the form info, When I go over a race I glance at the top rated/2nd top etc to get a quick overall view, but then I go down each form line and look for things like the pattern the ratings make - are the good values from the past or more recent, are figures improving or getting worse, if one figure is much different to another is there a likely explanation (going or distance change, or perhaps the horse goes better at certain tracks)?

The speed rating helps to identify contenders, the form lines can help identify the runners that will match their better ratings - it is definitely not a 'top rated = winner' effort, I show how the top rated do each day simply as a coarse illustration of their ability to pick winners even if you do nothing yourself - if you apply good judgement to the total informtion on show then you ought to be able to do better than you would by simply backing the top rated in every race.

So yesterday then:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 3.5 2.5 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 3.5 2.5 (Return: 8.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/4 Odds: 0.8 0.29 0.67 (Return: 4.76)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.29 0.67 (Return: 2.96)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 12.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

30 out 25.76 back, deny everything Baldrick! One NH winner, crikey. Not a great start to Cheltnham, but it has provided a good topic of conversation for the thread at least.... I'm surprised the deficit wasn't bigger to be honest so I'm almost cheerful about it. I only just noticed that I didn't post today's stuff last night - which is odd, as I did it, and until 1 minute back I thought I could scroll back up and recheck the selections sheet.... I'll attach it and today's list of top rated runners so tomorrow's results will make sense - I'll trust everyone to accept I must have missed uploading somehow (still no idea how) as I want to keep as complete a record as I can of what happens....

I feel a right idiot now!

Okay, this is the bit where I say 'and today' so -
and today, as per the snip I posted above to Mike, up to the start of Wolverhampton there were just 5 winners, one (Captain Lars) at 4/7, Altior 1/1, Line House at 13/8 and Skint at 4/1 - luckily for the pts balance Bleu Berry was also top rated, almost certainly a rating I wouldn't calculate if I did it again today, but at 20/1 I'll take the fluke thanks.

I've definitely posted tomorrow's stuff, so I'm going to quit while I'm behind.

Dave

Today

 

[davejb]

Got done early today - it's my wife the hairdresser's fault I'm so early, she came round to perform the regular hair styling for my wife and hair cut for me (note how changing one word explains the difference in approach that leads to one costing 4 times the cost of the other). As I'm deployed on coffee making - this must be the only ladies' hairdresser setup where the customers produce the complimentary latte rather than the lady with the scissors - and I also do the chair carrying (dining room chair becomes barber's chair in kitchen) and the rolling case porter to take the implements back out the the car. So, that's an hour of my life spent listening to them taking it in turns to talking the hind legs off a donkey.... a split second after waving goodbye I was in my computer chair seeking comfortable and overall peaceful escape.

I DEFINITELTY just attached the daily files. had it been mentioned yesterday in time I'd have appended them then... they sat in my 'program output folder' (catchy name eh?) gathering dust all day, apart from early on when I was picking a few horses out.

Today I've been watching Cheltenham of course, I didn't have a bet though - to be honest I found today to be full of races where I thought it could go to any one of the 10/1 and below shots, Penhill won the Stayer's for example and I'd said before the start 'any one of the first 8 in the betting could win this, and I wouldn't even write off the 9th and 10th'. So far, just to continue the daily comment re the gods, Penhill was of course the best priced top rated winner for the ratings so far, as I type this. Sad to see Cue Card in trouble, another race where the clash of the giants didn't come off - when Un De Sceau promptly got demoted by Balko Des Flos it just put the icing on it in my view - not that Balko isn't a very good horse, but I really didn't expect UDeS and CC to both go down.

Okay, yesterday - as I said yesterday I'm posting this to keep the public record going, even if I did forget to post the darn cards.... I doubt anyone will consider this some sort of fakery, as it's (I think) the first time I've done it in almost a year, and I'd have faked better results:

Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/4 Odds: 1.63 0.57 0.3 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 1.63 0.57 0.3 (Return: 5.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 4.0 20.0 (Return: 26.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

The AW stuff isn't firing, which is why I produce the AWcard instead - it'll be a while before the profiles are in a position to perhaps help pick selections, and it doesn't help that Chelmsford and Kempton pace data is not available, or that ATR keep missing odd races and occasionally whole meetings out - I doubt the 4th of March Southwell meeting will ever appear now, for example. As the information is free - if a bit of a pain to collect and process - I can hardly complain about the service, but with the missing meetings and races from the tracks they DO cover I wonder why they bother doing half a job? (Unfair I guess, 95% of a job).

That's 29 out and 35.75 back, so okay I guess - but as has happened a number of times the day has hinged on a single big priced winner, take that 20/1 shot out and you get a much much worse 28 out and 14.75 back! Today we have Penhill as 12/1 to thank for keeping things afloat - 27 bets out for the day, 22 of that out to this point and 33.18 back with 7 results still to come... take Penhill out and it's 21 out so far, 20 back.

Enough, today is a winning day, the last meeting will decide how much the ratings are up by, so that's a good day at last.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Thought I'd best attach all the files before doing anything else....
Yesterday:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/12 Odds: 1.5 2.5 3.0 8.0 (Return: 19.0)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 2.5 8.0 (Return: 12.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 12.0 0.18 (Return: 14.18)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.18 (Return: 1.18)

That's 27 out and 33.18 back - no winners AW again. It's noticeable that when I'm looking at the race using the pace info, which (sadly) is incomplete due to patchy coverage, I quite often find the speed rated top isn't looking all that great - I'm not really sure why, I suppose it might be down to the fact that the pace ratings ignore weight (which means you do need to check the weight info 'manually' to decide if weight today is going to have a different effect to whatever was carried when the pace data was recorded). Whatever the reason the AW speed figures seem to be a bit in and out in operation.

On the plus side the NH ratings aren't too bad again, 21 out and 33.18 back for NH is a fairly good day. Today the NH is about a fiver up I think from 25 or so, currently Dundalk and Wolverhampton are conspiring to turn a profit into a loss but maybe things will turn out okay by the end.

I would agree that the Gold Cup was a really good battle between the two best horses in the field, I found the whole day a bit flat though - as I imagine did many punters - seeing so many go in that may have been great for human interest stories, but mainly great for the bookies who must now all be awash in champagne. I doubt I'm the only one who wishes the meeting had been on better ground, because I think a great many really good horses just didn't manage to deliver the runs they should have.

Anyway, things will die down a bit for a few days I suppose - then it'll be the National and Lincoln that everyone is getting worked up about.... tomorrow it's back to normal, there'll already be several horses being packed away until next March no doubt.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Uttoxeter looked a fun place to be - I was under a duvet watching it, which on balance was the sensible alternative. As is often the case the ratings didn't produce a raft of winners at the televised meetings, only Vocaliser (7/1) went in during the period the cameras were watching, meanwhile 3 winners from Fontwell went in unnoticed, and another one each at Kempton and Uttoxeter followed as soon as the cameras had turned off - I am sure my wife thinks I'm making it up when I tell her that they are going in elsewhere while nothing but tumbleweed is seen on the screen.

Yesterday:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/16 Odds: 2.0 2.75 3.0 5.5 0.8 (Return: 19.05)
Mkt filter 5/11 Odds: 2.0 2.75 3.0 5.5 0.8 (Return: 19.05)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 5.0 0.91 (Return: 7.91)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 2.0 9.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 0.44 0.25 (Return: 2.69)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.44 0.25 (Return: 2.69)

Almost funny this - I actually thought my results checking program had gone wrong when I saw the flat results, as I knew very little had been winning at the evening meetings - one at Warwick and 2 at Dundalk - so how come it said 7 (hc and non) winners and a profit? I'd forgotten the 3 that won at Lingfield during the daylight hours.... So after several daily comments about the AW ratings not performing they actually produced a profit for a change while the NH went walkies. It looks similar today - Wolverhampton is in profit for the day, NH is up a small amount as well, so there'll be about 8 pts or so profit from 33 out. It's not enough to retire on, thank goodness I managed to retire despite my efforts on the horses.

Cards etc attached as ever, no AW racing tomorrow - half the racing is in Ireland, considering how they did at Cheltenham I'm surprised they feel the need to practise quite so much. Normal service will hopefully no resume - for a whole week before the flat circus fires up!

Dave

 

[davejb]

I just found that I didn't hit the post button last night, I really am going to have to get a minder - I've been on the forum several times today and not noticed. Well, no racing today, so there's no 'how's it going' to chat about,
yesterday:
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 3.0 7.5 (Return: 12.5)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/17 Odds: 7.0 1.38 4.5 3.5 (Return: 20.38)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 1.38 3.5 (Return: 6.88)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 3.5 3.33 (Return: 8.83)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

34 out and 41.7 something ish back, so in profit again thankfully, and another day where the AW worked okay just to prove my earlier comments wrong.
I'm going to attach tomorrow's stuff now and DEFINITELY hit the post button.... just in case racing occurs!
Dave

 

[davejb]

Well the 'yesterday' bit will be mercifully brief at least!
Today ended up as 18 selections and returned something like 14 pts, I wasn't paying too much attention as thanks to the weather yesterday a morning of processing results turned into a 'what will I do now?' morning instead, I thought I'd do a little bit of tidying up.

Big mistake - there are a few odd things I'd like to change a bit, either because I realise something isn't quite the way I want it or as I learn a bit more about something I see the way I did it isn't as good as it might be, Anyhow, thoughts turned to the AER info.

Firstly, as some mentioned at the time, I think it probably is better to take a longer term view - yes it's nice to see a time period that means you are looking at recent form, which is handy for avoiding stables/jockeys who aren't doing quite as well lately, but it does make it harder to spot the stuff I really wanted to find - which jockeys are better over fences than hurdles, who's better at training on the AW than on the flat, that sort of thing.

So AER is no longer 30 day - it is, however, only about 3 months of data so far, as it started about the same time as a data format change in the downloaded results, I MIGHT have a go at working a fix for this to extend the look back period. The 3 months isn't a limit, I've set the programs to accept up to a year of data (for when/if I can get some of my old results data reformatted to suit).

It is now split by race code - if the race being rated is an AW race for example, then the wins/runs/%/AE values will be for the trainer and jockey only on AW results, for example - each trainer and jockey has separate stats for AW,Flat,Hurdle, Chase,NH Flat races - I'm hoping that will help identify trainers/jockeys who maybe give a boost to their runners for that race.

The AE info is in the 'full ratings' spreadsheet, I have added the type of race (AW,Flat,NHH, NHC, NHF) to the title info for each race listed, also the trainer's and jockey's names are listed before their win/run/%/AE stats. Note that in the daily racecard ('20mar.xlsx' for today) the trainer stats are for the past 14 days still, it's the AE values in the full ratings that have changed.

There are a few niggly jobs like this I'd like to get done, but some of my programs are beginning to get so complex I'm in danger of losing myself in them - it's always the case, the older the program the more you wince when looking at it.

if anyone notices any odd values do let me know, I started out with some very strange numbers and it took a while to get what looked okay out.... there may still be things in there that I'd prefer weren't!

Dave
*nearly forgot to attach files again....

 

[TheBluesBrother]

davejb

Yesterday's meeting at Down Royal was as bad as it can get, it took me over a hour trying to make sense of the adjusted race distances etc.



Mike.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

davejb

I have just discovered that Limerick has an inner hurdles course, I just made some changes to the standard times.
Keeping on top of the standard times list is a nightmare, everyday it seems that I am changing something.

I have just sent an email to Dave Edwards, the times of the 2 x NHF races at Limerick are totally out of sync to the rest of the card.



Mike.

 

[davejb]

TheBluesBrother
Cheers Mike,
it's a late start for me today - family stuff - I'll make the changes. Thanks for the update. I'll see how I get on with Down Royal and let you know how it went.
Dave

 

[davejb]

TheBluesBrother

Okay Mike, this is what I figure -



I don't see where you got that comptime for Young Paddymc in the third? With a race time of 5m 51.0s it's 43.1s slower than the 2m 6f hurdle time yet running over 1/2f shorter - I estimated a standard for 2m 5 1/2f of 5m 1s (7s less than for 2m 6f) and have him 50.1s slower than average. The RP version is a second slower at +51.1s

I think there's a case for splitting them off further - it looks to me as if that first race had much the best ground, if you look at the seconds per furlong figures


The first hurdle is at 1.65, the remaining hurdles and the NH Flat are 2.51, 2.33, 2.35 - so I'm going to use -1.0 for the first race, -2.6 for the chases, and -1.6 for the rest of the hurdles, I accept that Icario is a rather better horse probably than Rossmore's Pride, so would have a better figure in all likelihood anyway, but that first race looks quite out of whack with the rest:



I've taken a few calculating columns out so it'll fit okay.
All I can really surmise from this is that my figures are almost guesswork, and I have no idea what on Earth went on at DownRoyal yesterday.
Dave